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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 05, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies


Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Fuentes*             4   3   3.68  71   0    71.0   59   29   5   31   80 
Speier               3   3   4.14  64   0    74.0   71   34   5   29   58 
Miller               3   2   4.17  56   0    54.0   46   25   7   23   65 
Seay*                1   2   4.50  43   0    48.0   47   24   5   18   41 
Kim                  8   9   4.56  42  19   140.0  137   71  14   58  109 
Miceli               4   4   4.57  58   0    65.0   62   33   9   26   59 
Day                  7   9   4.61  25  20   119.0  124   61  11   51   66 
Francis*            11  14   4.64  31  31   190.0  197   98  24   59  154 
Cook                 6   7   4.66  26  21   137.0  157   71  10   41   51 
Neal                 3   4   4.71  53   0    65.0   70   34   6   23   44 
Tsao                 5   6   4.77  23  18   117.0  116   62  19   40   99 
Carvajal             1   2   4.91  38   0    66.0   65   36   6   34   54 
DeJean               4   5   4.94  65   0    71.0   72   39   6   36   57 
Randall              5   8   5.10  35  12   113.0  122   64  12   48   70 
Dohmann              3   4   5.13  60   1    79.0   76   45  14   35   83 
Esposito             7  11   5.14  28  28   170.0  198   97  26   46   91 
Parker*              7  12   5.23  26  24   148.0  177   86  20   39   63 
Acevedo              5   8   5.24  39  17   122.0  138   71  21   34   79 
Cortes               1   2   5.25  55   0    60.0   63   35  14   15   43 
Chavez               5   9   5.39  28  21   142.0  156   85  22   55   93 
Jennings             7  13   5.39  28  28   177.0  195  106  19   83  110 
McClellan            4   6   5.42  33  16   118.0  132   71  19   43   79 
Williams*            3   7   5.55  61   0    73.0   73   45   9   45   57 
Kim                  4   9   5.61  35  20   138.0  157   86  22   53   82 
Drew                 3   6   5.69  24  13    87.0   99   55  14   35   50 
Hampson*             6  13   5.74  27  27   163.0  183  104  26   73  103 
Wright               7  14   5.81  33  29   178.0  196  115  26   91  110 
Bevis                2   5   5.95  52   0    65.0   69   43  11   37   50 
Anderson             2   4   6.00  50   0    54.0   59   36  10   28   40 
Jimenez              4   9   6.13  23  22   119.0  126   81  21   71  102 
Phelps               3   7   6.13  42   7    91.0  101   62  20   41   70

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS
Helton*            1b  .334  .457  .571 151 539 104 180 47  3 25  91 121  72  2  1 
Piedra*            cf  .298  .358  .533 118 383  69 114 36  3 16  63  34  89  5  4 
Shealy             1b  .293  .364  .494 132 447  81 131 31  1 19  70  41 103  2  0 
Hawpe*             rf  .282  .357  .506 116 387  59 109 20  2 21  64  46  89  3  3 
Atkins             3b  .307  .370  .464 143 524  81 161 35  1 15  75  50  64  0  2 
Holliday           lf  .298  .356  .486 135 514  77 153 30  5 19  74  42  82 10  5 
Gonzalez           2b  .303  .354  .441 121 399  56 121 23  1 10  48  27  55  2  4 
Davis              lf  .272  .335  .494 106 334  56  91 21  1 17  52  29 128  8  6 
Mohr               rf  .258  .340  .465 112 299  47  77 19  2 13  41  36  86  3  2 
Wilson             c   .255  .344  .443  74 212  36  54 16  0  8  31  29  54  0  0 
Bigbie*            lf  .284  .353  .421 117 401  56 114 21  2 10  47  43  89  6  3 
Ardoin             c   .263  .355  .414 103 304  37  80 17  1  9  38  34  86  2  2 
Sullivan*          lf  .303  .356  .400 141 482  80 146 24  4  5  45  35  84 11  7 
Spilborghs         lf  .279  .348  .420 131 462  82 129 32  3  9  52  45 103  8  7 
Barmes             ss  .289  .333  .433 125 501  84 145 34  1 12  57  23  57 11  9 
Miller             cf  .262  .361  .394 118 424  83 111 14  3 12  44  62 103 15 13 
Miles#             2b  .300  .339  .402 133 507  74 152 22  3  8  50  29  47  8  6 
Baker              3b  .263  .326  .414  84 297  48  78 19  1  8  37  24  77  2  1 
Stewart*           3b  .263  .320  .426 122 448  85 118 20  4 15  56  34 112  7  4 
Greene             c   .258  .294  .468  63 186  19  48  9  0 10  29   9  34  0  0 
Closser#           c   .256  .329  .399 113 371  56  95 22  2  9  43  39  66  1  1 
Garabito#          ss  .273  .326  .389 118 414  58 113 24  3  6  40  30  48  9  6 
Olson              3b  .257  .320  .403 104 350  55  90 24  0  9  40  29  74  6  5 
de la Rosa         ss  .265  .322  .389  90 275  37  73 14  1  6  31  22  38  5  3 
Iannetta           c   .244  .324  .387  88 287  50  70 13  2  8  34  32  77  1  1 
Quintanilla*       ss  .280  .325  .374 134 500  84 140 22  2  7  48  31  63  3  3 
Salazar*           lf  .252  .329  .381 134 512  96 129 23  5 11  51  57  88 11 10 
Freeman            cf  .261  .314  .376 128 402  60 105 14  4  8  41  27  81  4  4 
Machado#           ss  .202  .327  .297 111 391  67  79 16  3  5  28  73 106 12  8 
Nix                2b  .217  .272  .332 131 488  68 106 20  0 12  47  26  99 10  6

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future. 
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2005 at 12:26 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Related News: ColoradoZIPS

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Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney)  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 10:02 AM (#1719885)
.303 AVG for Cory Sullivan, gotta love the Coors field effect.
   2. JB H  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 12:55 PM (#1719990)
Could you post a non-Coors projection for Shealy? Thanks
   3. The Clarence Thomas of BTF (scott)  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 02:21 PM (#1720040)
only 25 HR for Helton? not very likely.
   4. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS)  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 02:30 PM (#1720044)
Wow, Steroid Boy is the Rox' #2 hitter?
   5. Dan Szymborski  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 04:28 PM (#1720134)
Ryan Shealy

Texas: 275/351/472
Boston: 273/350/456
Oakland: 262/339/445
Washington: 248/327/414
Baltimore: 262/340/441
Philadelphia: 268/345/456

Anywhere more specific in mine?
   6. Dan Szymborski  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 04:28 PM (#1720135)
Mind
   7. No Cure for the Francoeur (Dave)  Posted: November 05, 2005 at 04:49 PM (#1720152)
That's a very good projection for Jeff Francis. What kind of park factor are you using?
   8. Crafty Lefty  Posted: November 06, 2005 at 02:18 PM (#1720813)
Few comments:

-You've got two Kim's listed - any way to differentiate between Sun-Woo and Byung-Hyun?

-I think the offensive predictions for the big guns (Helton, Atkins, Holliday, Hawpe) are pretty close to what most Rockies fans are expecting out of them next season, though I'd bet the farm on Holliday hitting more than 19 homers.

-J.J. Davis' hitting projection is moot - the Rox are converting him to a pitcher (seriously)

-If Aaron Miles hits .300/.339/.402 in 502 at-bats next year, it will mean that he was a Pacific Coast League All-Star.

-Those projections for Bigbie, Piedra, and even Spilborghs are real nice... tell me again why the Rox A)wasted playing time on Dustan Mohr last year and B)are even CONSIDERING bringing in a fourth outfielder like Marquis Grissom or Jeff Conine?
   9. Dan Szymborski  Posted: November 06, 2005 at 02:45 PM (#1720839)
-You've got two Kim's listed - any way to differentiate between Sun-Woo and Byung-Hyun?

The better one is Byung-Hyun.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)  Posted: November 08, 2005 at 05:17 PM (#1724326)
That's a pretty tasty projection for Piedra. I like his ML production so far, but I'm scared of that huge-ass park split.

Anybody here seen him play? What do you think?
   11. 6 - 4 - 3  Posted: November 08, 2005 at 10:27 PM (#1724626)
The better one is Byung-Hyun.

I object to your liberal usage of the term "better." Henceforth, please refer to him as "the slightly less sucky Kim."

A few years ago when we had the dueling young shortstops named Alex Gonzalez it became fashionable to refer to one as the "better" one (I forget which), but then that guy went into the toilet and they're pretty much indistinguishable by now (seriously, check out their career lines: .244/.303/.393 79 OPS+ versus .245/.291/.391 78 OPS+).
   12. Mike Emeigh  Posted: November 08, 2005 at 10:37 PM (#1724629)
J.J. Davis' hitting projection is moot - the Rox are converting him to a pitcher (seriously)

Do you have a link to something that shows this? He asked the Pirates to do this two years ago (threatening to retire), and they refused.

-- MWE
   13. Ienpw  Posted: November 08, 2005 at 11:20 PM (#1724644)
It would be nice to see Jeff Francis approach those numbers. If he can have that ERA and get over 200 innings he'd be first Rockie with 200 IP and a sub 5.00 ERA if I am not mistaken.
   14. Crafty Lefty  Posted: November 10, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1726070)
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