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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
2006 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Drew* rf .288 .414 .528 112 386 76 111 19 4 22 73 80 80 6 2
Bradley# cf .291 .378 .462 110 416 62 121 24 1 15 61 56 87 12 8
Choi* 1b .251 .358 .464 125 319 44 80 18 1 16 49 49 84 1 2
Kent 2b .264 .330 .454 139 511 76 135 33 2 20 88 46 95 5 3
Myrow* 1b .248 .344 .426 130 387 63 96 24 3 13 52 48 102 4 3
Saenz 1b .258 .319 .466 102 279 33 72 19 0 13 50 23 59 0 1
Perez 3b .269 .342 .423 124 390 59 105 18 3 12 50 37 95 15 9
Werth rf .247 .336 .421 110 361 55 89 20 2 13 54 45 109 10 3
Cruz# rf .235 .340 .421 140 477 61 112 23 3 20 68 77 114 5 6
Meadows lf .253 .328 .436 109 360 51 91 22 1 14 56 34 91 4 4
Ledee* lf .250 .322 .425 108 228 28 57 14 1 8 36 25 55 0 0
Martin c .255 .361 .360 129 400 72 102 13 1 9 48 58 66 10 5
Guzman 3b .268 .316 .436 128 459 65 123 20 3 17 68 30 134 6 4
LaRoche 3b .248 .311 .434 130 452 76 112 19 1 21 67 36 88 8 3
Navarro# c .270 .342 .364 124 404 49 109 15 1 7 41 43 52 2 2
Edwards 3b .255 .335 .377 128 443 57 113 22 1 10 54 47 82 5 4
Young# 2b .255 .303 .422 134 498 64 127 27 1 18 66 31 136 3 3
Chen lf .240 .304 .419 107 363 53 87 19 2 14 52 33 99 3 3
Phillips c .252 .318 .383 130 420 41 106 22 0 11 55 35 51 0 1
Rose# c .233 .336 .349 92 275 35 64 15 1 5 30 41 70 1 0
Stanley* cf .249 .318 .389 115 398 55 99 21 4 9 43 41 84 6 5
Aybar# 2b .260 .321 .376 134 473 51 123 24 2 9 57 42 79 9 5
Ross rf .241 .296 .422 120 410 62 99 19 2 17 55 30 101 4 3
Kemp cf .254 .292 .426 117 413 62 105 14 3 17 60 17 104 13 5
Repko cf .252 .307 .391 130 412 61 104 18 3 11 45 28 97 9 5
Flores ss .259 .338 .332 107 316 47 82 10 2 3 30 37 40 3 4
Robles* 3b .264 .320 .364 111 368 43 97 17 1 6 41 30 34 1 6
Loney* 1b .250 .317 .343 129 460 58 115 20 1 7 48 45 86 4 3
Izturis# ss .274 .313 .349 142 588 67 161 25 5 3 54 34 66 14 9
Grabowski* c .225 .298 .372 107 253 35 57 11 1 8 31 27 55 1 1
Hu ss .259 .291 .349 114 424 64 110 16 2 6 39 14 49 17 5
Valentin# 3b .197 .278 .395 116 395 50 78 17 2 19 57 42 107 5 5
Nakamura 3b .204 .279 .359 113 373 42 76 14 1 14 47 39 87 0 0
Theodorou# lf .220 .294 .292 125 250 30 55 8 2 2 19 23 42 6 3
Bako* c .203 .284 .275 51 138 11 28 8 1 0 11 15 34 0 1
Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Gagne 6 1 1.52 65 0 71.0 41 12 3 18 111
Alvarez* (retired) 6 4 3.68 31 12 93.0 87 38 9 25 78
Penny 10 9 3.94 28 28 169.0 170 74 17 44 122
Wunsch* 1 1 4.03 41 0 29.0 22 13 2 17 29
Osoria 6 6 4.07 61 0 84.0 91 38 6 21 58
Weaver 12 12 4.19 34 32 206.0 212 96 25 52 145
Perez* 9 7 4.26 26 26 152.0 142 72 21 39 114
Carlyle 5 5 4.32 27 15 98.0 99 47 15 24 73
Lowe 12 14 4.33 34 34 206.0 209 99 23 64 131
Broxton 6 6 4.42 37 17 118.0 118 58 12 44 105
Sanchez 4 5 4.50 70 0 76.0 75 38 8 32 58
Dessens 4 5 4.61 37 16 125.0 135 64 15 37 80
Brazoban 6 8 4.62 71 0 76.0 70 39 10 37 71
Carrara 4 5 4.63 64 0 72.0 69 37 7 35 54
Dreifort 3 3 4.67 44 3 54.0 47 28 5 33 63
Rupe 5 6 4.75 23 14 91.0 97 48 17 21 77
Ketchner* 6 9 4.88 22 22 120.0 124 65 16 49 86
Wayne 4 6 4.89 28 19 114.0 121 62 16 42 73
Orenduff 6 9 4.96 26 25 118.0 119 65 17 52 100
Thompson* 3 5 4.97 19 18 96.0 95 53 8 54 72
Houlton 6 9 5.00 31 24 144.0 149 80 24 55 120
Farmer 4 7 5.05 32 13 98.0 106 55 14 37 62
Billingsley 7 11 5.10 27 26 136.0 139 77 19 64 118
Eckert 5 8 5.29 30 17 131.0 137 77 23 55 117
Venafro* 1 3 5.40 54 0 55.0 62 33 7 25 32
Juarez 4 7 5.58 28 16 108.0 125 67 18 40 66
Neu 1 3 5.88 35 6 72.0 77 47 10 45 47
Tiffany* 4 10 5.88 22 21 101.0 107 66 25 43 103
Jackson 6 14 5.92 29 26 152.0 172 100 27 74 96
Erickson 3 8 6.30 22 15 90.0 106 63 17 46 43
Bott* 3 9 6.61 33 18 109.0 117 80 18 84 83
Hanrahan 4 13 7.26 27 25 124.0 149 100 33 70 91
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 23, 2005 at 10:58 AM | 21 comment(s)
Related News: LA Dodgers, ZIPS
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Could make a nice platoon fit for some team in need of a first baseman.
They usually tend to sap power and increase K rates.
If not, the projection is on the lower side me thinks.
I don't see a projection for Greg Miller, is that because he only pitched about 20 or so innings last year?
It wasn't exactly a "throw away comment," although in retrospect I should have put quotation marks around the word "scrappy." I didn't mean to imply that certain players "simply make it because they're white"; I don't think that's true. I do think, though, that white players comprise the majority -- and perhaps the totality -- of players who have a public reputation as being "scrappy," "gritty," or "blue-collar," all characteristics that the Dodgers might look for in a bench player. I try to keep an open mind, though, so I'd be interested to hear of counterexamples -- non-white players who are routinely described in this way.
As for the "best man" always playing, tell that to Choi after he got replaced by Jason Phillips. Or ask any Cubs rookie. These decisions aren't motivated by race; they're stupidity-driven.
Miller has 22 2/3 innings above rookie ball in the last 2 years - I just don't think a statistical projection drawn off his miniscule record will be very insightful here. I try not to project players with very limited record unless one absolutely has to (Huston Street before '05, Craig Hansen now). Even those two had more to go off of.
David Eckstein has the fattest dog in the world.
BTW Sweet, your response definitely holds water. The majority of players defined as scrappy most definitely are white. Using this dynamic in your whole Choi arguement, however, probably threw me off of your real point.
Jason Phillips is terrible.
Coletti better not start signing a bunch of 37-year old veterans with playoff-experience-magick or I am going to be very frustrated.
While in general this is correct, I think being one of "Dusty's boys" or the equivalent is the same thing. Guys like Macias, Neifi, Harris, and Dunston are clearly not white, and they've all got that elusive intangible that gets them more PT and roster space than their talent alone merits.
I disagree. I want Martin to spend at least a few more months in the minors, for three reasons. First, he's only been catching a few seasons, and a bit more full time experience under Yeager's tutelage would be beneficial. Secondly, Navarro should play regularly also, so that the Dodgers can see whether the couple of months at the end of the season was a fluke or not. Thirdly, if Martin spends the full season in the majors then he and Navarro would be eligible for free agency at the same time, which strikes me as poor roster management, when there are developmental reasons anyway for that to be avoided.
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