BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2006 ZiPS Projections

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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers


Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Drew*              rf  .288  .414  .528 112 386  76 111 19  4 22  73  80  80  6  2 
Bradley#           cf  .291  .378  .462 110 416  62 121 24  1 15  61  56  87 12  8 
Choi*              1b  .251  .358  .464 125 319  44  80 18  1 16  49  49  84  1  2 
Kent               2b  .264  .330  .454 139 511  76 135 33  2 20  88  46  95  5  3 
Myrow*             1b  .248  .344  .426 130 387  63  96 24  3 13  52  48 102  4  3 
Saenz              1b  .258  .319  .466 102 279  33  72 19  0 13  50  23  59  0  1 
Perez              3b  .269  .342  .423 124 390  59 105 18  3 12  50  37  95 15  9 
Werth              rf  .247  .336  .421 110 361  55  89 20  2 13  54  45 109 10  3 
Cruz#              rf  .235  .340  .421 140 477  61 112 23  3 20  68  77 114  5  6 
Meadows            lf  .253  .328  .436 109 360  51  91 22  1 14  56  34  91  4  4 
Ledee*             lf  .250  .322  .425 108 228  28  57 14  1  8  36  25  55  0  0 
Martin             c   .255  .361  .360 129 400  72 102 13  1  9  48  58  66 10  5 
Guzman             3b  .268  .316  .436 128 459  65 123 20  3 17  68  30 134  6  4 
LaRoche            3b  .248  .311  .434 130 452  76 112 19  1 21  67  36  88  8  3 
Navarro#           c   .270  .342  .364 124 404  49 109 15  1  7  41  43  52  2  2 
Edwards            3b  .255  .335  .377 128 443  57 113 22  1 10  54  47  82  5  4 
Young#             2b  .255  .303  .422 134 498  64 127 27  1 18  66  31 136  3  3 
Chen               lf  .240  .304  .419 107 363  53  87 19  2 14  52  33  99  3  3 
Phillips           c   .252  .318  .383 130 420  41 106 22  0 11  55  35  51  0  1 
Rose#              c   .233  .336  .349  92 275  35  64 15  1  5  30  41  70  1  0 
Stanley*           cf  .249  .318  .389 115 398  55  99 21  4  9  43  41  84  6  5 
Aybar#             2b  .260  .321  .376 134 473  51 123 24  2  9  57  42  79  9  5 
Ross               rf  .241  .296  .422 120 410  62  99 19  2 17  55  30 101  4  3 
Kemp               cf  .254  .292  .426 117 413  62 105 14  3 17  60  17 104 13  5 
Repko              cf  .252  .307  .391 130 412  61 104 18  3 11  45  28  97  9  5 
Flores             ss  .259  .338  .332 107 316  47  82 10  2  3  30  37  40  3  4 
Robles*            3b  .264  .320  .364 111 368  43  97 17  1  6  41  30  34  1  6 
Loney*             1b  .250  .317  .343 129 460  58 115 20  1  7  48  45  86  4  3 
Izturis#           ss  .274  .313  .349 142 588  67 161 25  5  3  54  34  66 14  9 
Grabowski*         c   .225  .298  .372 107 253  35  57 11  1  8  31  27  55  1  1 
Hu                 ss  .259  .291  .349 114 424  64 110 16  2  6  39  14  49 17  5 
Valentin#          3b  .197  .278  .395 116 395  50  78 17  2 19  57  42 107  5  5 
Nakamura           3b  .204  .279  .359 113 373  42  76 14  1 14  47  39  87  0  0 
Theodorou#         lf  .220  .294  .292 125 250  30  55  8  2  2  19  23  42  6  3 
Bako*              c   .203  .284  .275  51 138  11  28  8  1  0  11  15  34  0  1 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Gagne                6   1   1.52  65   0    71.0   41   12   3   18  111 
Alvarez* (retired)   6   4   3.68  31  12    93.0   87   38   9   25   78 
Penny               10   9   3.94  28  28   169.0  170   74  17   44  122 
Wunsch*              1   1   4.03  41   0    29.0   22   13   2   17   29 
Osoria               6   6   4.07  61   0    84.0   91   38   6   21   58 
Weaver              12  12   4.19  34  32   206.0  212   96  25   52  145 
Perez*               9   7   4.26  26  26   152.0  142   72  21   39  114 
Carlyle              5   5   4.32  27  15    98.0   99   47  15   24   73 
Lowe                12  14   4.33  34  34   206.0  209   99  23   64  131 
Broxton              6   6   4.42  37  17   118.0  118   58  12   44  105 
Sanchez              4   5   4.50  70   0    76.0   75   38   8   32   58 
Dessens              4   5   4.61  37  16   125.0  135   64  15   37   80 
Brazoban             6   8   4.62  71   0    76.0   70   39  10   37   71 
Carrara              4   5   4.63  64   0    72.0   69   37   7   35   54 
Dreifort             3   3   4.67  44   3    54.0   47   28   5   33   63 
Rupe                 5   6   4.75  23  14    91.0   97   48  17   21   77 
Ketchner*            6   9   4.88  22  22   120.0  124   65  16   49   86 
Wayne                4   6   4.89  28  19   114.0  121   62  16   42   73 
Orenduff             6   9   4.96  26  25   118.0  119   65  17   52  100 
Thompson*            3   5   4.97  19  18    96.0   95   53   8   54   72 
Houlton              6   9   5.00  31  24   144.0  149   80  24   55  120 
Farmer               4   7   5.05  32  13    98.0  106   55  14   37   62 
Billingsley          7  11   5.10  27  26   136.0  139   77  19   64  118 
Eckert               5   8   5.29  30  17   131.0  137   77  23   55  117 
Venafro*             1   3   5.40  54   0    55.0   62   33   7   25   32 
Juarez               4   7   5.58  28  16   108.0  125   67  18   40   66 
Neu                  1   3   5.88  35   6    72.0   77   47  10   45   47 
Tiffany*             4  10   5.88  22  21   101.0  107   66  25   43  103 
Jackson              6  14   5.92  29  26   152.0  172  100  27   74   96 
Erickson             3   8   6.30  22  15    90.0  106   63  17   46   43 
Bott*                3   9   6.61  33  18   109.0  117   80  18   84   83 
Hanrahan             4  13   7.26  27  25   124.0  149  100  33   70   91 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 23, 2005 at 10:58 AM | 21 comment(s)
Related News: LA Dodgers, ZIPS

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1. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: November 23, 2005 at 12:27 PM (#1743882)

If there is god, AZ will trade Shawn Green to LA for Milton Bradley and Broxton.

2. CFBF: Now With the Dan Werr Seal of Approval Posted: November 23, 2005 at 01:04 PM (#1743951)

God, J.D Drew is a great player. If he could just stay healthy...

3. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: November 23, 2005 at 01:09 PM (#1743957)

Ah, remember the days when Edwin Jackson and Joel Hanrahan were supposed to lead the Dodgers to many world series apperances? Those were good times.

4. Robert in Redondo Posted: November 23, 2005 at 01:26 PM (#1743998)

Easy to see LA's biggest problem, their two best players are only projected for 112 and 110 games played.

5. CFiJ Posted: November 23, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1744078)

I know the Dodgers don't even have a manager yet, but I'll take the under on Choi's PA#.

6. Biff. You know, for kids! Posted: November 23, 2005 at 02:32 PM (#1744172)

Ouch, Kent falls off a cliff in these projections.

7. Sweet Posted: November 23, 2005 at 02:59 PM (#1744215)

I suspect that Choi gets 0 PA as a Dodger next year. He's clearly not targeted as the starter (Colletti has said that the team needs to fill "the hole at first base," or words to that effect), and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy the Dodgers would want to keep on the bench. He's not flexible, not fast, and not scrappy (i.e., not white). Plus he stank as a PH last year.

Could make a nice platoon fit for some team in need of a first baseman.

8. Better Schafer than Sorry Posted: November 23, 2005 at 03:15 PM (#1744258)

Does the projection take into account that Drew had a broken wrist?
They usually tend to sap power and increase K rates.
If not, the projection is on the lower side me thinks.

9. Lester Posted: November 23, 2005 at 03:53 PM (#1744326)

Yeah, ZIPS really hates Jeff Kent.

10. JGLB has waited with a glacier's patience Posted: November 23, 2005 at 04:33 PM (#1744402)

Dan,

I don't see a projection for Greg Miller, is that because he only pitched about 20 or so innings last year?

11. Matt Waters Posted: November 23, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1744406)

Didn't realize you had to be white in order to achieve scrappiness. All these years I thought every Major Leaguer who ever put on a Uniform deserved to get there due to their unrivaled talent. You know, hand eye coordination and what not. But now I have to consider a new argument. Some simply make it because they're white! I find this more insulting than most people since my baseball "career" is mercifully washed out, and you know, if I deserved any more entitlements due to my skin color, it sure is news to me. Never occured to me. I didn't make it cause I didn't have the talent, happening to be a pale Irish men didn't exactly help me out. It is probably a throw away comment that you meant nothing by Sweet, but I'd like to believe the best man plays, and find it overly demeaning to the sport we all love if this weren't the case.

12. Sweet Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:05 PM (#1744492)

mw,

It wasn't exactly a "throw away comment," although in retrospect I should have put quotation marks around the word "scrappy." I didn't mean to imply that certain players "simply make it because they're white"; I don't think that's true. I do think, though, that white players comprise the majority -- and perhaps the totality -- of players who have a public reputation as being "scrappy," "gritty," or "blue-collar," all characteristics that the Dodgers might look for in a bench player. I try to keep an open mind, though, so I'd be interested to hear of counterexamples -- non-white players who are routinely described in this way.

As for the "best man" always playing, tell that to Choi after he got replaced by Jason Phillips. Or ask any Cubs rookie. These decisions aren't motivated by race; they're stupidity-driven.

13. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:06 PM (#1744494)

I don't see a projection for Greg Miller, is that because he only pitched about 20 or so innings last year?

Miller has 22 2/3 innings above rookie ball in the last 2 years - I just don't think a statistical projection drawn off his miniscule record will be very insightful here. I try not to project players with very limited record unless one absolutely has to (Huston Street before '05, Craig Hansen now). Even those two had more to go off of.

14. The Balls of Summer Posted: November 23, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1744652)

Actually, scrappy comes from those players' tendencies to take the scraps from the clubhouse spread home to their dogs.

David Eckstein has the fattest dog in the world.

15. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: November 23, 2005 at 07:30 PM (#1744748)

Some people don't know the difference between prescriptive and descriptive, I guess, and some of them are cruising the internet looking for racism. Amazing.

16. Matt Waters Posted: November 23, 2005 at 11:23 PM (#1745000)

Look my bad for putting a different opinion out there. If you read what I said, you would clearly see I wasn't singling Sweet or anything he said out like he was a bad guy or something. I just disagreed with his thoughts and put mine out there. If you want to think that's what Internet crusading is defined now in this present time, a differing view on something, it's in a real sorry state, or maybe perceptions are.

BTW Sweet, your response definitely holds water. The majority of players defined as scrappy most definitely are white. Using this dynamic in your whole Choi arguement, however, probably threw me off of your real point.

Jason Phillips is terrible.

17. Sweet Posted: November 24, 2005 at 04:00 AM (#1745299)

I didn't take offense, mw, and I hope I didn't give any. I understand your point.

18. Cheer and boo and raise a hullabaloo Posted: November 24, 2005 at 12:32 PM (#1745463)

I know it's all been said before, but I still need to vent. It is simply unbelievably frustrating that Choi is not seen as a decent player. He is projected to have the 3rd-highest OPS on the team, and it's not like this would be unexpected as the projection is basically his career OPS. Obviously he's not a great or maybe even good hitter for a 1B, but in what world is Choi a problem you need to fix? There are bigger fish to fry if you are looking for problems on the Dodgers.

Coletti better not start signing a bunch of 37-year old veterans with playoff-experience-magick or I am going to be very frustrated.

19. Dewitty_Pun Posted: November 25, 2005 at 08:46 PM (#1746600)

First off, Martin and Navarro should split time 50/50, perhaps even alternating each game. Choi is an awesome player and very underrated; I think he is not liked because he is Korean. Phillips should be traded for anything the Dodgers can get, or simply be released.

20. DCA Posted: November 28, 2005 at 12:10 PM (#1749732)

BTW Sweet, your response definitely holds water. The majority of players defined as scrappy most definitely are white. Using this dynamic in your whole Choi arguement, however, probably threw me off of your real point.

While in general this is correct, I think being one of "Dusty's boys" or the equivalent is the same thing. Guys like Macias, Neifi, Harris, and Dunston are clearly not white, and they've all got that elusive intangible that gets them more PT and roster space than their talent alone merits.

21. akrasian Posted: November 28, 2005 at 01:13 PM (#1749849)

First off, Martin and Navarro should split time 50/50, perhaps even alternating each game.

I disagree. I want Martin to spend at least a few more months in the minors, for three reasons. First, he's only been catching a few seasons, and a bit more full time experience under Yeager's tutelage would be beneficial. Secondly, Navarro should play regularly also, so that the Dodgers can see whether the couple of months at the end of the season was a fluke or not. Thirdly, if Martin spends the full season in the majors then he and Navarro would be eligible for free agency at the same time, which strikes me as poor roster management, when there are developmental reasons anyway for that to be avoided.

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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

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