BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2006 ZiPS Projections

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1. Boof Bonser Tree Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:55 PM (#1749699)

If Morneau puts up those numbers I will be very happy.
I guess ZIPS thinks he will learn how to hit a breaking ball this year.

2. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:02 PM (#1749713)

Another Cy Young for Johan next year then?

3. The District Attorney Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1749716)

Wow, nice rookie years for Baker and Liriano. Romero, not so much.

Boone's not making it through the season.

If Cuddyer has that same season again, they're really gonna have to do something.

This team could use some hitters, huh?

4. Rob Base Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1749717)

Mauer is teh awesome.

5. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:31 PM (#1749778)

Well, that's not as bad as I expected. If you put those top 9 names (except LeCroy) in a lineup, you'd have pretty decent group, with no glaring holes...a lot of guys with a .780 OPS which isn't bad. It's still a below average offense, and there's no depth there, but it isn't too far from being acceptable. They need to add one or two really good bats to improve the offense and help the depth. That's possible.

I think a healthy Stewart (and possibly Morneau) would likely top those numbers.

6. RobLS Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:41 PM (#1749798)

Baker is no longer a rookie. Could be the most underrated young pitcher in baseball though.

7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:49 PM (#1749810)

LeCroy has been cut loose, correct?

8. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:53 PM (#1749814)

Man those guys cannot hit their way out of a paper bag.

Johan Santana is a Lord among men.

Lew Ford seriously needs to be freed.

9. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:06 PM (#1749842)

Yep, LeCroy is a Free Agent. They were afraid of paying a one dimensional player ~$1.5 million in arbitration. Of course he's really only a half-dimensional as he can only hit lefties. But he's still a great pinch hitter/DH.

Somehow they can see fit to go to arbitration with a one-dimensional Punto, though, when they've got plenty of other options for his role.

10. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:35 PM (#1749878)

Baker is no longer a rookie. Could be the most underrated young pitcher in baseball though.

You're right, he is. Evidence: I have never heard of him.

11. BirdWatcher Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:00 PM (#1749920)

What's happening with Caught Stealing. Looks like Zips barely gives the Twins a 60% success rate when it comes to stealing, with a whole bunch of lesser players near 50% or less.

12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:06 PM (#1749934)

They were afraid of paying a one dimensional player ~$1.5 million in arbitration.

Sounds familiar. Not that LeCroy will go on to become a post-season hero and MVP candidate.

13. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:39 PM (#1749985)

And it's probably the right decision at the time (again)....no one else will pay him that much either.

There's no way LeCroy goes on to have an Ortiz-like career. He's 3 years older than Ortiz was then, is in worsh shape physically, and is a lefty-masher. If you can't hit righties that well, you don't have enough opportunities to make an impact. By all accounts, he's a great person though.

14. Halofan Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:00 PM (#1750003)

If Zips is right I'm taking Mauer in my fantasy draft.

If Zips is wrong, whose @$$ do I get to kick?

15. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:22 PM (#1750015)

Not much to get excited about with the hitting here. The team leader in walks projects to have only 55 and he's the youngest player on the team. While 5 guys project to top 100 K's.

16. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:26 PM (#1750019)

With the cost of Ryan, Eyre, and Howry, I wish the Twins would look at dealing Nathan, Rincon or Crain. They have some guys like Bowyer, Neshek, Bonser, Balfour that could potential fill the role of 6th/7th inning man while the 2 of the 3 mentioned before left coudl handle the 8th/9th inning.

17. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 08:36 PM (#1750127)

Nathan is a pretty well established "elite" closer. He's signed for 3 years, $15 million (or 2/$10 million if for some reason they don't pick up his option). I don't want them to trade him, but the bullpen shouldn't fall apart without him.

If BJ Ryan is getting a 5 year $47 million deal, and other closers on the market are getting anywhere near 4/40 deals, Nathan should have huge value on the trade market. I don't know which teams they might match up with, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is a team around willing to trade a great hitter for Nathan. I wouldn't even complain if they kept Romero and Lohse in that scenario.

18. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1750249)

That's what I'm thinking. Lets say Philly loses Wagner maybe a Joe Nathan for Chase Utley deal? Or the Orioles throw Brian Roberts and some prospects to the Twins for Nathan now that they are out one BJ Ryan. The Braves for Marcus Giles?

19. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 28, 2005 at 09:53 PM (#1750334)

That's what I'm thinking. Lets say Philly loses Wagner maybe a Joe Nathan for Chase Utley deal?

If by "Chase Utley" you mean "Jason Michaels".

Or the Orioles throw Brian Roberts and some prospects to the Twins for Nathan now that they are out one BJ Ryan. The Braves for Marcus Giles?

Let's not go bananas here, GMoney. Joe Nathan may be a proven closer and slightly underpaid, but trading away a home-grown, good-hitting, popular, low-paid second baseman with 10-15 years left in his career (e.g. Utley, Roberts, Giles) is something that any team would really hate to do. Especially second basemen, they're tough to find (as you know from the Rivas experience).

20. chris p Posted: November 28, 2005 at 09:55 PM (#1750341)

You're right, he is. Evidence: I have never heard of him.

he's the guy we're going to get back for mike lowell!

21. Cris E Posted: November 28, 2005 at 10:22 PM (#1750361)

[Baker] is the guy we're going to get back for mike lowell!

Don't do that, it makes my head throb.

Here, you share the pain: "This is where we trade Hunter and Nathan for Utley and Michels." See how it makes your left eye water? Be kind to others, man.

22. Matt Waters Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:01 AM (#1750521)

One of these years, Jason Tyner is going to steal seventy bases and I'm going to look good for having him as a "sleeper..."

23. sunnyday2 Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:47 AM (#1750564)

Notonly do these guys not hit a lot, but Gardenhire will put the higher OBA (among the non-power hitters) guys at 7 and 8 and the lower ones at 1 and 2.

24. PFJ Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:57 AM (#1750582)

Does anyone have confidence in that Kubel projection?

25. Optimus_Primate Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:06 AM (#1750598)

Sounds familiar. Not that LeCroy will go on to become a post-season hero and MVP candidate.

The money saved will be better spent on inferior players like Kevin Millar or Carl Everett, just like it went toward players like Rick Reed and Cristian Guzman in 2003.

26. tl; dr (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1750600)

That Morneau projection doesn't look great, but my Scoresheet team might have made the damned playoffs if he'd slugged anything close to .500

27. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2005 at 08:20 AM (#1750897)

OK, LeCroy's not, but how about Morneau as the next Ortiz? They've bounced him up and down a couple times, he's been "disappointing" so far, that projection is nearly exactly what Ortiz's age 25-26 seasons looked like.

And we all know that a couple coincedental similarities virtually guarantees they'll turn out the same.

28. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 08:48 AM (#1750915)

I'm taking bets on Bret Boone posting an 739 OPS next year. No forgetting way.

29. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 29, 2005 at 08:51 AM (#1750918)

And we all know that a couple coincedental similarities virtually guarantees they'll turn out the same.

Yeah, especially with Justin Morneau's Dominican Republic Roots, we all know Morneau will take off just like Ortiz did.

30. Russ Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#1816828)

Yeah, especially with Justin Morneau's Dominican Republic Roots, we all know Morneau will take off just like Ortiz did.

Everyone knows you can't walk off the (Vancouver) island.

31. Will Young Posted: January 11, 2006 at 10:03 PM (#1816887)

OK, LeCroy's not, but how about Morneau as the next Ortiz?

Up until last season, Morneau actually had very similar production at similar levels and ages as Jim Thome. However, until Morneau learns to start walking, that comp will quickly pass.

32. conan for president Posted: January 12, 2006 at 12:54 AM (#1817276)

Not much to get excited about with the hitting here. The team leader in walks projects to have only 55 and he's the youngest player on the team. While 5 guys project to top 100 K's.

Let's not forget about Luis Castillo. ZiPS has him at 74 walks and 54 Ks. I'm sure that ratio is one of the top projections for 2006. Last year I think his was better than 2:1. Replacing last year's disaster at 2nd base with Castillo is probably worth 4 wins.

33. Boof Bonser Tree Posted: January 12, 2006 at 04:04 AM (#1817512)

Primey for #30

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