User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 1.2561 seconds
64 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 02, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Quentin rf .262 .361 .472 136 447 79 117 31 3 19 64 51 72 5 1
Hairston lf .276 .334 .522 106 370 64 102 19 3 22 57 32 77 3 1
Young cf .255 .336 .525 125 459 94 117 33 2 29 69 53 87 15 5
Jackson 1b .285 .372 .429 124 410 65 117 27 1 10 56 53 57 2 1
Tracy* 3b .286 .349 .465 149 548 77 157 37 2 19 75 50 95 4 2
DaVanon# cf .273 .377 .408 100 238 39 65 11 3 5 29 39 46 10 4
Gonzalez* lf .259 .353 .435 143 517 72 134 44 1 15 68 70 69 1 1
Drew* ss .278 .335 .467 122 467 63 130 25 6 17 61 37 91 4 2
Hudson# 2b .280 .348 .440 143 514 73 144 31 6 13 64 53 77 7 4
Estrada# c .294 .339 .434 116 401 44 118 29 0 9 54 22 45 0 0
Green 2b .277 .346 .438 129 404 71 112 29 3 10 46 40 77 5 4
Byrnes cf .265 .323 .462 136 506 76 134 34 3 20 69 37 85 15 2
Clark# 1b .234 .313 .496 110 256 32 60 14 1 17 50 28 75 0 0
Carter* 1b .260 .331 .437 137 497 73 129 26 1 20 68 53 64 4 3
Easley 2b .244 .329 .443 95 221 28 54 15 1 9 33 24 38 2 1
Montero* c .264 .328 .430 119 428 57 113 21 1 16 57 37 66 1 2
D'Antona 3b .264 .331 .397 126 428 62 113 27 0 10 48 43 81 2 2
Hammock c .251 .296 .466 94 311 17 78 17 1 16 48 17 48 2 2
Callaspo# 2b .285 .339 .385 135 522 76 149 25 3 7 52 40 27 9 8
Barden 3b .265 .310 .430 132 486 67 129 32 3 14 62 28 109 4 3
Snyder c .241 .325 .392 103 316 37 76 18 0 10 37 38 69 1 1
Counsell* ss .251 .338 .340 130 459 62 115 23 3 4 39 56 65 18 5
Brito c .252 .303 .386 78 246 30 62 12 0 7 28 17 54 1 1
Ball# cf .234 .342 .325 103 320 52 75 15 1 4 25 51 97 19 12
Gil ss .233 .263 .434 113 424 62 99 22 3 19 61 14 105 5 5
Erickson* 2b .245 .311 .318 107 302 41 74 16 0 2 24 25 50 6 3
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Stephen Drew
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .302 .362 .538 132 504 80 152 29 9 24 72 43 66 4 2
Mean .278 .335 .467 122 467 63 130 25 6 17 61 37 91 4 2
Pessimistic (15%) .258 .315 .407 112 430 50 111 22 3 12 53 31 89 3 3
Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Webb 3.85 14 10 32 32 220.0 211 94 17 66 170
Medders 3.91 5 4 61 0 69.0 64 30 5 26 62
Valverde 4.21 3 3 56 0 62.0 54 29 7 27 74
Slaten* 4.22 3 3 60 0 64.0 58 30 4 30 58
Choate* 4.26 2 3 70 1 57.0 57 27 3 25 42
Cruz 4.50 5 5 37 12 94.0 86 47 9 46 92
Vizcaino 4.64 4 6 68 0 66.0 62 34 9 28 60
Lyon 4.68 2 3 39 0 50.0 54 26 6 16 38
Gonzalez 4.96 7 11 29 28 167.0 186 92 20 55 105
Julio 4.97 3 4 63 0 67.0 61 37 12 33 77
Pena 4.97 5 7 58 0 76.0 86 42 12 18 46
Gonzalez 5.08 6 11 32 27 172.0 193 97 32 38 123
Batista 5.14 6 12 39 27 182.0 199 104 18 81 97
Hernandez 5.14 9 16 34 34 231.0 258 132 31 83 142
Koplove 5.14 2 4 57 0 70.0 74 40 8 31 42
Schultz 5.20 3 5 57 0 64.0 68 37 4 36 41
Nippert 5.41 6 12 24 23 138.0 151 83 21 59 98
Aquino 5.50 1 3 49 0 54.0 57 33 7 28 49
Ohlendorf 5.51 6 13 28 27 183.0 225 112 29 48 95
Vargas 5.54 6 13 32 26 151.0 169 93 28 54 112
Bajenaru 5.72 2 6 57 2 74.0 78 47 12 38 61
Bass 5.88 5 12 28 28 170.0 205 111 33 55 90
Murphy* 5.97 3 9 32 18 119.0 124 79 21 68 97
Daigle 6.00 3 9 45 10 102.0 124 68 17 27 56
Bacsik* 6.27 3 11 31 18 122.0 155 85 30 32 67
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Brandon Webb
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.13 17 7 32 32 227.0 202 79 13 55 187
Mean 3.85 14 10 32 32 220.0 211 94 17 66 170
Pessimistic (15%) 4.82 10 14 32 32 211.0 226 113 22 79 144
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 02, 2006 at 03:17 PM | 84 comment(s)
Related News: Arizona, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Arizona, Projections, ZIPS
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2008 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Of course, given their nearly identical projections, it doesn't really matter.
1. ZiPS is always 'low' on Webb.
2. Jackson is easily going to beat those power numbers.
1. ZiPS is always 'low' on Webb.
Yes, Brandon Webb has succeeded Kevin Gryboski as Player ZiPS Never Ever Gets Right.
That HR/AB ratio is much worse than he put up in his rookie year, and worse than he put up in his last year in Tucson. I know it's not 'bias"....the computer does what it does,....I'd just like to understand why.
Conversely, what is the formula seeing in Chris Young to have him hitting with SO MUCH power his rookie year? We all know he has excellent homer potential, but it seems ZIPS is saying he is there RIGHT NOW.
Thanks for any illuminating you can do. :-)
That HR/AB ratio is much worse than he put up in his rookie year, and worse than he put up in his last year in Tucson. I know it's not 'bias"....the computer does what it does,....I'd just like to understand why.
Some of Jackson is that his MLEs for homers aren't very impressive.
ZiPS just loves Chris Young. He's exactly the type of player that historically, can be on the brink of a homer explosion. He's been young, he's already displayed quite a bit of power, he hits a ton of doubles already. His 2005 was just unreal - before his 22nd birthday, hitting 26 home runs in a park that had a park factor the 3rd-lowest in professional baseball.
I've put in a bunch of the more likely names and, more than any of the other, ZiPS sees Chris Young as the hitter most likely to take a massive leap forward in 2007.
.279/.359/.423
He ended up hitting
.291/.368/.441
Pretty good projection, I would say. Definitely within a fairly close range across the board.
Still, considering his minor league track record, and this past rookie season, it seems like his July callup numbers from last year must be what is "mucking up" his projections for 2007.
.285/.372/.429 is not an unreasonable projection, but I would be willing to bet a fairly sizeable amount on the "over"
It's important to note that some of Chase's PFs creeped up quite a bit in 2006 (1 yr HR factor of 130, run factor of 120).
So, he was projected at 144 ISO, hit for a 150 ISO with a props 165 ISO. Another 144 ISO does seem low. I know the MLE's are the reason for it but offhand I'd project 160.
Is there any reason to believe that PrOPS doesn't just systematically overrate slow guys and underrate fast guys? Take a look at the list of "unluckiest" performances over the last 3 years: Bonds, Dunn, Thomas, Palmeiro, Giambi, Aaron Boone, David Bell, Giambi again, etc... Now take a look at the luckiest performances: Ichiro, Cano, Reed Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Carlos Guillen, Carlos Guillen again, Mora, Jack Wilson, Sizemore, etc...
It's not a slam dunk or anything, and it could just be a fluke, but especially with slow guys, the effect seems pretty strong.
--------------------------------------
As for Webb, I know it's the system, but I've gotta say, I'm a bit confused with his projection. He's beat that ERA 3 years in a row now. He's beat it on peripherals too in the last two years. Basically, is it just that generic age related decline and regression to mean are sufficiently strong forces to push that through? I believe it, but I'd like to know if something else is going on statistically instead that I'm just not noticing.
A couple of comments and a question.
On offense: I agree that Conor Jackson will exceed his projected HR total next year. My fanboyish bet is that he doubles his 10 HR projection. Also, it'll be a shame that Hairston most likely won't get a chance to play in LF in AZ next year. Real shame. A. Green won't play with the Dbacks; he's most likely headed to Japan. Finally, Estrada who?
On pitching: Livan will do a lot better than that projection. However, the projection for everyone not named Webb is probably right. Batista isn't coming back, and rightfully so. The Dbacks will need a solid #2 or #3 if they'll strut the Gonzalez brothers in the rotation. I also will be shocked if Vargas is brought back. Time to cut bait on him.
Questions:
Do you have, or can you post, projections for the following guys:
Micah Owings, p
Steven Jackson, p
Bill White, p
Danny Richar, 2b
Thanks
Still, even with those concerns it does supposedly have predictive power (over and above plain old OBP/SLG).
Regression definitely pays a part of it.
In Webb's case, his last three DIPS ERAs are 4.63, 3.82, and 3.33. If we move Webb to some other parks and teams:
STL - 17-7, 3.41
SD - 15-9, 3.45
OAK - 17-7, 3.42
DET - 16-8, 3.53
In essence, ZiPS doesn't dislike Webb - it dislikes the Diamondback defense and park. While Webb's not allowing many fly balls, the park still makes those very dangerous.
% of Flyballs that were Homeruns
Brandon Webb, 2004-2006: 16.0%
Eric Milton, 2004-2006: 12.7%
A few extra sinkers that don't sink a year are far riskier at Chase than in other parks and that downside risk is going to push Webb's mean projection lower.
There's also the issue of systems trying to project extreme players - Webb's extremely high grounder ratio makes him a more unique player and no matter how many workarounds you try, projection systems do a bad job with the oddballs.
Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Jackson 5.79 5 12 26 26 168.0 202 108 26 63 77
Owings 4.88 7 11 27 27 164.0 180 89 18 59 98
White 6.11 0 2 52 0 56.0 58 38 8 39 46
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Richar 2B .254 .309 .372 122 422 61 107 23 3 7 41 32 77 6 3</PRE>
I'll take that bet.
Of the two, I'm far more worried about the infield defense than the park hurting Webb. I wouldn't put money on any given everyday Diamondback infielder being much beyond average next year, if that.
Josh Byrnes set to examine roster
Actually given his age and level and offensive environment Justin played very well
The Midwest League was an offense free zone this year: .253/.325/.365 and South Bend is a pitcher's park. At 18/19 (average age in league: 22) Justin comfortably outplayed his league average .263/.343/.413
By way of comparison- Carlos Gonzalez hitting .300/.356/.563 in Lancaster was not any better relative to league than Upton (Both had an OPS+ of 124- after taking park effects into account) and Carlos is 2 years older...
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Upton CF .229 .295 .356 113 424 70 97 21 0 11 45 37 95 9 5</PRE>
I'm pretty sure that Gonzalez projection is Luis, not Carlos. Upton's is probably pretty good given his age.
---
I don't think Props is biased due to speed - JC looked at that, and found that adding speed information doesn't help the regression at all. That said, something is going on - it always says guys who take pitches and hit lots of homers are unlucky - Giambi, Dunn, Andruw Jones, etc. Without checking, I'd imagine those guys have lower BABIP than you'd expect based on their GB/FB/LD/PO numbers (and conversely, the "lucky" guys have higher).
It's hard to quibble with the "lucky" guys though - Ichiro! regressed significantly after the season PRops called "very lucky", Jack Wilson became Jack Wilson again, etc. Anyone expect Freddy Sanchez to lead the league in hitting next year?
Now, I wouldn't expect Sanchez to hit .344 and have an .850 OPS again, but I don't expect him to drop off to the degree Jack Wilson did.
Hmm, I suppose that's true. Didn't even think of Luis being part of the franchise any longer...haha. If so, Dan, could you throw out Carlos Gonzalez's zip for comparison's sake. Thanks...
Actually, players with highly batting averaged based offenses (these players, as a group, fit that description better than they fit the description of "fast guys") have their value flucuate more from year to year than players who rely more on walks and home runs. Their variance is simply higher. Hence, we would expect a group like this to have the "luckiest performances" if we were using a good projection system.
Abe Woody is a ground ball pitcher, 1.98 GO/AO this year in the FSL; he allowed only one hom run in 80+ innings. Someone probably would've taken Gil in the rule 5 for his glove; he can't walk the line but he can sure pick it with the glove. His hacktastic bat will be perfect in Cinci.
It's a miracle Josh Byrnes could get anyone for him, not to mention a pitching prospect.
Baseball cube messed up and put Greg Smiths 06 numbers on this guys page.
Reynolds is playing in the AFL right now, and he's going to put some pretty good numbers there; hopefully the Dbacks will protect him this time (and avoid another Uggla incident). The only knock on Reyonlds is that he isn't outstanding defensively anywhere, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Dbacks stick him at 3B full time for a year or two just to put some pressure on Chad Tracy. Plus, Reynolds really need to improve his plate discipline next year. Otherwise he won't pan out.
So Levski. Would you say this trade gave you a woody?
/12 year old.
But, '12 and 4 is pretty good'.
I'd like to second MM1F's question in post 41. Any way you could post the projections for Greg Smith and especially Mike Reynolds?
Reynolds had the (arguably) biggest breakout season of any of AZ's prospects; he hit well in high A, in AA, with the US team, and continues to rake in the AFL. The guy's a hitting machine.
Any chance you can share his 2007 projection with us?
could well be about double his actual number.
74 K, 62 IP - tough for any reliever to do that and have a crappy ERA (again).
Thanks alot.
Emilio Bonifacio - 254/302/339
Alberto Gonzalez - 257/319/339
Carlos Gonzalez - 235/282/395
Evan McClane - 6-14, 6.38, 165 IP, 42 BB, 80 K
Jailen Peguero - 2-3, 5.05, 73 IP, 40 BB, 52 K
Of the other guys just added to the 40 man roster, only MacLane has a shot at the major league team next year, potentially as a lefty reliever.
Does anyone know much about Peguero? He's got a pretty low HR rate, yet isn't a groundball pitcher. Any word on his "stuff"?
Using Range, I've got Gil at -3 plays in 118 innings at short and -23 plays in 718 innings in center, which I believe makes him the worst centerfielder (plays above average per inning) in the minor leagues.
<a href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430667dfs06.html>Here's the link</a>I mean, regress all you want, recognize the flaws in the system, park-adjust, whatever...that was a seriously bad defensive season.
Anyway, the link:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430667dfs06.html
And the numbers I mentioned in #56 are just for AA. He was bad in AAA, too.
It's actually not a BBTF issue. You just messed up the HTML for a destination anchor - you have to have quotes around the link in HTML.
You've got 3 options here.
- The standard URL
- Doing left bracket url=http://link right bracket link name left bracket slash url (the actual letters) right bracket.
- Hitting the "<a>" button at top and just filling in what you want.
The minorleaguesplits.com site totally rules. You are one of my internet gods. Thank you!
Btw, how does a Brewers fan end up in Astoria? That's about as improbable as a Dbacks fan ending up in New York, really. At least you've found a solid young team with upside to root for.
Questions: where do you get your defensive stats for minor league players from? And how comfortable are you with them?
I have complete play-by-play logs for all 2006 minor leagues. However comfortable you are with Range for major leaguers...these are as legit as those. Line drives and fly balls aren't differentiated, so there's no problem with prospect bias for batted balls. Defensive stats are volatile, of course, so I'm not willing to declare beyond all doubt that Gil could never be an average defender, or that Ellsbury is a future gold-glover, but they generally agree with scouting assessments. I'm introducing all this stuff to the world in a couple of columns at Lederer's site next week with best-of and worst-of lists at each position.
The Diamondbacks have reportedly acquired Doug Davis, Dana Eveland and David Krynzel from the Brewers for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino.
Nice deal for both teams, IMHO. From AZ's perspective, I really like it. What's NOT to like in there?
I think Vargas will do better in Milwaukee than in Arizona. Estrada is a solid option as a number one catcher. Aquino is just a fungible reliever.
Don't forget, in just under twice as many at-bats in 2005, he hit 202/297/301.
Im not being argumentative, im just trying to figure it all out..
Thanks!
All other things being equal, it does weight more recent years much more than previous years, but it will also weight a year with more at bats much more heavily, because in most cases having more data gives you a better picture.
So in this case, it looks like the difference in abs is generally more predictive than a difference in years.
I just think its a pretty low estimate - in my humble opinion. Time will tell...
Year BABIP
2003 .242
2004 .284
2005 .258
2006 .341
ZiPS is giving him a .274 BABIP in 2007 which is probably more realistic - I like Snyder, but he's just not going to put the ball in play enough to sustain a .280 BA.
Gentlemans bet on a 730 OPS? I take the over?
Thanks for all of the good info!
Personally, I actually like Snyder more than ZiPS does - I'm just explaining why ZiPS is coming up with what its coming up with!
I'd love to see projections for Dee Brown and potentially for Carrasco. Is Brown good defensively?
Amd who's Ronnie Merrill Jr.?
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main