BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2007 ZiPS Projections

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1. Jim Wisinski

Posted: October 07, 2006 at 12:57 AM (#2201572)

Dan, will you be making a post with the park factors for the major league stadiums?

2. Sparkles Peterson Posted: October 07, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2201577)

So when does McCann get moved off catcher, and is he going to get even better when freed from the tools of ignorance?

3. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 07, 2006 at 01:06 AM (#2201601)

Frenchy will come very close to his "optimistic" projection next year.

***

The Braves need to move SaltyDog to 1B, not McCann...

4. Morally Excellent Posted: October 07, 2006 at 01:55 AM (#2201744)

Much as I appreciate these projections, I sure wish Dan didn't do them in the same order every year. Would be nice to have the Jays up first for a change. :)

5. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 07, 2006 at 02:06 AM (#2201771)

Mccann is all that kept me alive this summer.

6. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: October 07, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2201888)

I haven't heard anything much about McCann this year, despite Mauer making it the Year of the Catcher. Those are legitimate MVP-candidate numbers.

7. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2006 at 07:38 AM (#2201921)

I haven't heard anything much about McCann this year, despite Mauer making it the Year of the Catcher. Those are legitimate MVP-candidate numbers.

McCann had a higher OPS+ than Mauer this year, 146 to 144. Now, Mauer was the more valuable offensive player, since he had 116 more PAs, but a lot of that was due to Mauer being able to spell at DH: McCann actually caught four *more* games than Mauer did. I had McCann fifth on my NL MVP ballot at the IBAs.

8. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 07, 2006 at 10:24 AM (#2201936)

####### eric byrnes.

9. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 07, 2006 at 04:41 PM (#2202091)

I'll believe those 399 ABs when I see them.

10. Sam M. Posted: October 07, 2006 at 05:03 PM (#2202111)

I had McCann fifth on my NL MVP ballot at the IBAs.

That is a very, very hard call to justify, given that he got under 500 PAs. I might buy McCann as one of the five best players in the league on a per/PA basis, but was he one of the five most valuable, given that "value" has to take into account how much he played?

Pujols, Howard, Beltran, Berkman, Cabrera, Reyes . . . . They all played extremely well, and a lot more than McCann did.

Don't get me wrong; I love McCann as much as I can love any Brave. But 5th in the MVP voting in the NL? Hard to justify . . . .

11. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2006 at 09:31 PM (#2202696)

That is a very, very hard call to justify, given that he got under 500 PAs. I might buy McCann as one of the five best players in the league on a per/PA basis, but was he one of the five most valuable, given that "value" has to take into account how much he played?

For awards like this, I probably put less emphasis on playing time than most people do--I'd rather reward real greatness over a shorter period of time than very-goodness over a somewhat longer stretch. McCann was only eleventh in the league in VORP, for example--only four runs out of eighth, though--but that's a stat, like all those that count from replacement level, that puts a lot of emphasis on playing time, more than I would. He was also in the league's top five in RCAP.

12. bunyon Posted: October 07, 2006 at 09:42 PM (#2202735)

Geez, Sam. Are the youngsters (McCann, Wright, Reyes) leading a reconciliation? Is hatred between Met and Brave to die out as we celebrate our respective youngsters?

Is it just that we aren't both in the playoffs?

13. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2006 at 09:45 PM (#2202744)

Let me put it this way: maybe it is a stretch to put McCann in the NL's top five. But I think it's at least as justified as picking Mauer as the #1 player in the AL, and he's going to get a lot of votes in the IBA.

14. Azteca Posted: October 09, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2204735)

That's a fine offensive team. I'm surprised at reports that the Braves are shopping Giles. Yes, he's getting expensive, but who would replace him?

15. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: October 09, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2204761)

They want to replace him with a combination of Aybar/prado..
While Giles is one of my favorite players, it makes sense at some level..
He can't bat in his fav 2-hole in the atlanta lineup anymore. And he is going to get expensive

16. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: October 09, 2006 at 04:04 PM (#2204781)

It's highly unlikely that Giles will be around after 2007, when he becomes a free agent. So the Braves are exploring trade possibilities. Besides the significant dropoff in Giles's numbers (especially power) this season, there's the usual early fades for second basemen in general.

They're likely doing the same thing with Andruw, although I think the odds are much higher that they resign Andruw (than that they resign Giles - I think odds are better than 50-50 that Andruw's somewhere else in 2008).

17. Mike Webber Posted: October 09, 2006 at 05:12 PM (#2204872)

From Roto world:

# Adam LaRoche missed the season finale for the Braves, but whatever you do, don't miss his second half when creating your cheat sheets next season: 19 homers, .655 slugging. He's arrived.

I think you may be a little too low also Dan. What would the Zips spit out without his 200/294/453 in 75 ABs April?

18. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2204949)

I think you may be a little too low also Dan. What would the Zips spit out without his 200/294/453 in 75 ABs April?

I am a bit skeptical still. He had a big second half 2 years ago, before nosediving the next season. Maybe he is a Derrek Lee type of player, who needs 2 months before he gets going. I will believe he can perform at that level over a full year, when he finally does it. 75 ABs in April are still 75 meaningful ABs. He wasn't carrying any injury that was announced..
OTOH He does credit his second half resurgence to the medication for ADD he shifted to midway through the season, so he might have turned the corner!

19. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2204953)

Dan, when the time comes, would you mind adding CF Gregor Blanco. He's got little power (which may kill him going forward), but gets on base, defends nicely, and is still pretty young.

20. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2204966)

Dan, when the time comes, would you mind adding CF Gregor Blanco. He's got little power (which may kill him going forward), but gets on base, defends nicely, and is still pretty young.

He seems to have "old player" skills. and his stolen base totals are a bit puzzling and underwhelming. and little power is an exaggeration IMO.
Any similar players anyone know of who has had success at the major leagues? singles hitter, lots of walks in minors and no speed on the bases. But very good strike zone control.
stats look like Langerhans with no power.

21. flournoy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 07:48 PM (#2205054)

OTOH He does credit his second half resurgence to the medication for ADD he shifted to midway through the season, so he might have turned the corner!

Actually, he credits playing everyday much more than he credits medication.

22. ronyconrad Posted: March 13, 2010 at 08:40 AM (#3478438)

Human Growth Hormone

23. tl; dr (Voxter)

Posted: March 20, 2010 at 04:12 PM (#3482784)

WTF?

24. ntr Jeff Francoeur Posted: March 20, 2010 at 05:25 PM (#3482818)

You mean Andruw? Nah, dude, it's not that, trust me...

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