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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, October 13, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Ramirez lf .299 .408 .600 142 498 88 149 31 1 39 118 89 111 1 1
Ortiz* dh .288 .396 .619 151 562 108 162 35 2 49 137 101 119 1 0
Youkilis 1b .276 .384 .428 129 463 79 128 35 1 11 62 76 95 3 2
Pena* 1b .256 .355 .474 140 464 82 119 24 1 25 82 67 127 3 1
Varitek# c .266 .357 .456 121 410 55 109 25 1 17 65 56 102 3 1
Lowell 3b .277 .342 .465 152 542 70 150 46 1 18 85 52 63 3 1
Crisp# cf .299 .352 .456 128 498 79 149 32 2 14 68 39 68 18 6
Nixon* rf .272 .371 .415 110 357 52 97 24 0 9 50 53 52 1 1
Pena cf .276 .331 .483 102 323 44 89 17 1 16 58 23 101 2 1
Loretta 2b .302 .367 .404 142 557 75 168 37 1 6 70 50 51 4 2
Choi* 1b .240 .348 .422 106 287 41 69 17 1 11 43 45 72 1 1
Myrow* 3b .250 .339 .412 110 308 51 77 22 2 8 40 40 83 4 2
Pedroia ss .274 .347 .394 130 482 70 132 33 2 7 52 49 32 2 3
Hinske* 3b .256 .332 .406 137 438 59 112 26 2 12 62 47 100 6 4
Moss* rf .261 .323 .397 134 499 82 130 34 2 10 58 45 107 4 3
Kottaras* c .241 .331 .374 115 382 51 92 28 1 7 45 50 94 1 1
Ellsbury* cf .275 .341 .374 99 382 58 105 15 4 5 38 34 43 23 12
Gonzalez ss .256 .304 .404 131 445 52 114 31 1 11 64 27 87 2 1
Murphy* cf .249 .314 .387 140 486 66 121 37 3 8 57 43 80 6 4
Kapler rf .263 .310 .397 92 194 35 51 12 1 4 22 12 31 2 2
Cora* 2b .250 .333 .344 108 288 35 72 9 3 4 31 27 32 4 2
Calloway* lf .250 .317 .371 111 364 43 91 27 1 5 45 34 72 7 5
West 1b .245 .302 .376 125 444 51 109 32 1 8 47 31 67 1 1
Mirabelli c .214 .304 .377 63 159 15 34 8 0 6 23 16 81 0 0
Machado 2b .253 .324 .326 114 359 51 91 13 2 3 32 35 44 14 6
Otness c .258 .302 .355 110 392 44 101 24 1 4 38 20 40 1 1
Pinckney# 3b .236 .279 .383 119 436 61 103 31 3 9 49 22 84 4 2
Harris* 2b .237 .321 .318 109 299 49 71 13 1 3 24 36 65 13 6
Bacani 2b .227 .311 .327 112 343 45 78 18 2 4 35 33 62 7 5
Miller c .197 .281 .351 72 208 29 41 11 0 7 28 21 44 0 0
Durrington 3b .227 .285 .306 113 330 45 75 13 2 3 29 25 71 17 8
Player Spotlight (Beta) - David Murphy
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .268 .334 .443 157 542 75 145 46 5 13 73 52 74 8 4
Mean .249 .314 .387 140 486 66 121 37 3 8 57 43 80 6 4
Pessimistic (15%) .231 .289 .351 135 467 46 108 31 2 7 48 36 97 5 5
Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Papelbon 3.66 7 3 47 12 113.0 101 46 14 27 106
Burns 3.95 5 2 53 0 73.0 76 32 6 16 54
Schilling 3.98 15 7 32 27 190.0 196 84 25 28 163
Breslow* 3.99 5 2 55 0 79.0 76 35 6 28 62
Delcarmen 4.06 4 2 57 0 71.0 70 32 4 27 63
Corey 4.10 3 2 52 0 68.0 67 31 6 23 51
Foulke 4.21 4 3 54 0 62.0 62 29 9 15 50
Timlin 4.31 6 4 73 0 71.0 77 34 6 19 44
Beckett 4.55 14 10 30 30 182.0 178 92 26 61 143
Tavarez 4.67 4 4 64 3 81.0 87 42 7 30 49
Clement 4.67 9 8 26 26 156.0 156 81 17 65 126
Hansen 4.73 4 3 52 4 78.0 82 41 5 35 53
Lopez* 4.82 2 2 64 0 56.0 61 30 4 24 31
Snyder 4.86 7 6 30 21 137.0 161 74 17 32 82
Baker 4.90 4 3 51 0 68.0 70 37 9 25 55
Dinardo* 4.90 4 3 25 16 90.0 101 49 10 30 61
Lester* 4.96 8 8 26 26 138.0 141 76 15 64 108
Brooks* 5.13 3 5 50 3 72.0 75 41 12 28 55
Wakefield 5.16 11 12 29 28 178.0 187 102 31 63 114
Buchholz 5.24 5 6 22 22 103.0 113 60 17 36 70
Hansack 5.26 7 9 32 19 137.0 155 80 26 37 91
Martinez 5.31 3 3 47 0 61.0 66 36 11 20 41
Gabbard* 5.40 9 11 27 24 135.0 146 81 17 66 84
Alvarez* 5.71 6 10 25 23 134.0 161 85 25 40 69
Pauley 5.75 5 8 24 24 144.0 177 92 26 42 72
Jarvis 5.77 5 9 27 20 131.0 159 84 26 38 68
Rozier* 6.35 4 8 25 25 129.0 155 91 18 74 52
Bowden 6.40 4 8 25 25 128.0 153 91 18 74 53
Zink 6.49 4 10 26 16 111.0 127 80 14 76 49
Tucker* 6.55 2 3 48 0 66.0 75 48 8 48 40
Evert 6.72 2 6 38 6 83.0 99 62 20 40 56
Bumatay* 6.75 2 4 52 0 64.0 69 48 11 48 48
Henkel 6.93 3 8 19 11 74.0 96 57 18 30 39
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Matt Clement
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.77 11 6 26 26 160.0 154 67 13 54 143
Mean 4.67 9 8 26 26 156.0 156 81 17 65 126
Pessimistic (15%) 6.16 6 11 26 26 146.0 172 100 23 78 111
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 13, 2006 at 07:38 PM | 48 comment(s)
Related News: Boston, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Boston, Projections, ZIPS
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[b]
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Pedroia ss .274 .347 .394 130 482 70 132 33 2 7 52 49 32 2 3
Callaspo# 2b .285 .339 .385 135 522 76 149 25 3 7 52 40 27 9 8
[/b]
First of many projections with Schilling as the only starter with an under 4.50 ERA. That's probably not good either.
# = switch hitter?
Yeah I basically ignored thatbecause it was mostly a releif projection. Didn't Tango et al in The Book find the "normal" ERA difference was ~0.8? That would put Paps closer to 4.46. I think he can beat that - hell I think Beckett can beat that too - but jeez, even if they bring in a top tier starter the days of yearly projected 100 win teams may be over for awhile. I'll take a 90+ projection, if I can get it. I just hope I can.
Think it's a bit conservative for Manny and a bit generous for Ortiz too -- would be surprised if manny batted under .300 since he's .318 lifetime.
WMPena surely better than that, too, but I would keep Carlos P around as he may well be useful.
The former SkyDome is one of the better parks to hit in, especially for power, IIRC.
2006 starters, before the season:
Schilling
Beckett
Wakefield
Clement -- injured badly
Wells -- traded
Papelbon -- moved to pen, injured
Arroyo -- traded
Lester -- "injured" badly
There just aren't a lot of pitchers left, thanks to trades and injuries. We can hope Papelbon comes back and pitches well, but that's still just four of the eight who were in the mix before the 2006 season began.
It'd be real nice to find out that at least one or both of Hansack and Gabbard are good, but that the Sox are in the position of even hoping for such a thing says a lot about how badly the 2006 season ended up.
Btw, maybe it's just me not being overly pessimistic, but looking at these zips projections, the Red Sox are going to suck donkey balls next year.
Seriously, if the Sox offense hits the way ZiPS seem to think it will (two 1000+ OPS guys; five other 800+ OPS guys) they'll be able to find enough pitching to compete. I have little doubt that come Opening Day the AL East will be the same toss-up it's been the last few years
Judging by Theo's history, though, there's not much point in discussing this roster when it's going to look completely different by April.
Carlos Pena elected to become a free agent (he presumably refused an assignment to Pawtucket)...
Pena's at-bats in recent years: 451, 513, 481, 482, 572, 503. Why is 464 so many?
Jarvis was rocked in his brief tenure with the Red Sox (7.71 ERA in 28 IP). The veteran spot starter/middle reliever will look to sign with his 10th team in his journeyman career. C Ken Huckaby, IF Alejandro Machado and 1B Carlos Pena also elected free agency.
Source: Boston Herald
There goes Boston's 3rd best starter...
I still think your shorting Papelbon. That projection has him making 12 starts, which considering his history, is probably around 70-80 of his IP. Just eyeballing, it looks like a .8 difference would mean about a 3.16 relieving and a 3.96 starting. That's a pretty good projection.
And I don't think they're signing Lilly. Mussina sounds good though.
Off the top of my head:
Overly optimistic:
Jon Papelbon
Jason Varitek
Coco Crisp
Overly pessimistic:
Tim Wakefield
This isn't counting guys like Carlos Pena who aren't going to be with the team.
It's probably not a good sign that the one guy I'm counting on doing notably better than his projection is a 40 year old with back trouble.
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Pedroia ss .274 .347 .394 130 482 70 132 33 2 7 52 49 32 2 3
Callaspo# 2b .285 .339 .385 135 522 76 149 25 3 7 52 40 27 9 8
Name EqAVG EqOBP EqSLG
Pedroia .272 .353 .403
Callaspo# .281 .335 .383
</pre>Going just based on this numbers it looks like Pedroia is much better than Callaspo.
2004 real: .297 AVG, .344 OBP, .446 SLG2005 real: .300 AVG, .345 OBP, .465 SLG
2007 ZIPS: .299 AVG, .352 OBP, .456 SLG
Um, why exactly? It's pretty much exactly how he hit in 2004 and 2005. Heck, just assuming he rebounds to that level shows considerable optimism in that it assumes that he'll completely recover from an injury which probably ruined his entire 2006 season. But assuming he is healthy, I don't think it's pessimistic to predict he hit exactly as well as he did in his last two healthy seasons.
Park differences between Fenway and Jacobs Field?
Not really - I weakened strengthened the predictive value of individual $H after some additional research following the first years of ZiPS (2002).
He hit .292 in 2005.
Not really - I weakened strengthened the predictive value of individual $H after some additional research following the first years of ZiPS (2002). Wakefield's projection doesn't suck because ZiPS is assuming a really high $H (in fact, Wakefield's projected $H is the second-lowest among starters I've done so far, behind Zambrano), it sucks because his peripherals are starting to decay and even knuckleballers age.
Not really - I strengthened the predictive value of individual $H after some additional research following the first years of ZiPS (2002). Wakefield's projection doesn't suck because ZiPS is assuming a really high $H (in fact, Wakefield's projected $H is the second-lowest among starters I've done so far, behind Zambrano), it sucks because his peripherals are starting to decay and even knuckleballers age.
Park and age. Of course, I should have mentioned that assuming he's healthy is a BIG assumption.
The Sox need Hansen to take a step forward.
After initially questioning this projection, I'll now step forward to defend it. Wakefield's peripherals are noticably worse this year than in 2005 for instance. His peripherals really did take a hit, particularly in K/BB ratio.
Well, Arroyo went to the NL from the AL, so I'm not sure I'd give much credence at all those his peripheral changes.
Generally, peripherals are significantly more stable from year to year than ERA is. K rate and BB rate especially tend to not fluctuate a huge amount, while HR rate does.
I don't know how well this applies to Wakefield however, due his pitching style. He may be more subject to peripheral changes which aren't indicative of a talent decline for any number of reasons. Then again, maybe not. It's honestly beyond me to say.
Two initial thoughts:
1. That would be nice.
2. If Mr. Edes is characterizing Beckett's projection as "modest", and using these numbers as evidence why the Sox should be actively searching out pitching talent, I'd like to be across a negotiating table with him some day.
Any chance Moose signs with the Sox??
Moose, from what I hear, is a creature of habit who's gotten used to NY. The Mets might have a chance, but the Red Sox are a longshot IMHO. I hope they pursue him though.
Considering the current status of their bullpen, those W/L records might be close to reality. They need pitching; they might not be desperate in the starting rotation, but they still need pitching. Even if the starters have good ERAs each of them - especially Beckett - will need help from the bullpen if they want to translate ERAs to wins. And Jonathan Papelbon's not walking through that door.
I am surprised none of the Boston fans are going after this projection. After all, the guy performed better than this last year, has the same lineup, still in the same ballpark, and is still fairly young (will be 28 in 2007). Why the slight regression?
That's actually a better projection than 2006.
2006 - 381/429
07 ZiPS - 384/428
Considering I'm projecting league offense as the 3-year weighted (8/5/4) offense, he'd be doing it in a slightly lower offense league, too.
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