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2. Rich Hill, wow!
3. The Cubs need a few more crappy hitting middle infielders.
I would think that for a pitcher like Roy Oswalt, the 2.69/3.65/4.53 would look about right, but for Hill it would be somewhat wider. I think he very well could meet that projection (my projection is in the same range), but he might revert to his nibbling, gopher prone ways and get sent back to Iowa.
I could be 100% wrong on this, and even if I'm not I don't know how you'd go about quanifying it. For all I know, Oswalt could have just as much downside, and after years of overwork, turn into Mark Gubicza 1990 or something.
But if I've got money at the end and need an arm, I might be the one who spends 28 on Oswalt. No way would I go that high on Hill.
Moore looks like he's getting close. A good year in AAA, and he's got value. Patterson, too.
Jones: ick. If he didn't just admit his shoulder was coming apart at the seams, they should deal him.
Mike Wuertz: closer?
If they got a .320 OBP out of Izturis next year, they'd ask, ".320 -- is that good?"
I'm very pleased to see the Rich Hill forecast, although the optimistic strikes me as much more unlikely than that - but, of course, I know less about this than Dan.
I was actually pleasantly surprised by the projections of both Scott Moore and Ryan Theriot. While the Cubs won't be winning a World Series with those two putting up those numbers in their everyday lineups, the Cubs aren't going to be winning a World Series with anybody else in those spots in the lineup anyway, so I'd go ahead and run Theriot at least out there every day, and I'd be hesitant to give too much to Aramis (particularly in terms of additional years).
Mike Wuertz: closer?
Absolutely. Although that Dempster forecast isn't all that bad.
Also, one minor request. If it's not too much trouble, I'd find it helpful if you listed guys' ages with their projections. The Cubs threw so many rookies and sorta-rookies out there last year, that it was hard to keep track of these guys' ages, which in a lot of cases is the difference between whether some of these guys are prospects or just organizational filler.
Thanks, Dan. Great, great stuff.
No, I had to fashion a ZiPS error model when I originally created ZiPS, using, (blarggh) ZiPS projections for everybody, ever.
I had intended it originally to be a quickie estimate in the spirit of what they did in the Elias Baseball Analysts towards the end of the run, but being armed with Excel, it's hard not to use some of the statistical toys, especially since most of the work with mean projections was done.
Both Elias and Nate use similarity score-type systems which I don't use directly. I used baseball history to get data of course, but I categorize players as a large number of various types.
In this case, purely from a statistical standpoint, Hill's got an enormous amount of positive factors - he's in his late 20s, all his periphs are going in a positive direction, and even when he was getting lit up, he was still very unhittable and without a ton of defensive support.
As I've noted above, this is simply a beta this year. I'm confident in my mean projections, but not on the breakthrough/breakdowns until they have more seasoning.
The Cubs defense was actually better than I remember (the spreadsheet no doubt remembered better than I, though).
Ditto. He had 9 HRs in about 230 PAs in the second half of the season. If he gets the chance to start 150 games, 20+ HRs is a reasonable possibility.
Even the mean projection of an .800+ OPS with good OBP would be nice. I'd really love to see the Cubs give him a shot at hitting 2nd in the order this year - it feels like he'd be a good fit. He's got decent speed, he doesn't strike out, he can take the ball the other way, and he works the count.
I don't think there's any way Hill gets close to that optimistic projection. I'd be thrilled with the mean projection, with an ERA in the mid 3s and a reasonable BB/9 rate.
If those three approach their projections I'll eat my hat. The headline in the Sun-Times today that made me laugh out loud--seriously guffaw--was that the Cubs trainer says Mark Prior's shoulder has "genetic looseness" and that "surgery is a last option." So that's what they're calling Dusty Baker these days: genetic. I wonder what branch of genetics the Cubs' trainer specialized in, since that's obviously why the team's keeping him around. You know, as a biology student myself I've got a different diagnosis of Prior's arm trouble. If you'll excuse me for delving into technical language, "HE'S GOT A BUSTED WING."
Honestly, did anyone outside the Cubs organization expect Mark Prior or Kerry Wood to throw a healthy pitch this season? Does anyone expect that for next season? If so, what evidence leads you to this conclusion? And does the evidence also lead you to El Dorado?
The offense thins out quickly. I don't think it's unreasonable, though. Matt Murton just might hit that projection. He seems like a good player.
Pinella for Manager of the Year.
But you know what has an absolute 100% chance of success?
The return of unnecessary cub fan optimism.
The return of unnecessary cub fan optimism.
My optimism is up just by virtue of the Dustbag being gone. It's like, no matter what happens, at least I know he's not responsible for it anymore.
But it's a tempered optimism. Pinella's obviously not going to come in and turn this team into a dynasty. I'll just be happy if they're not so frustratingly infuriating to watch that I have to abandon the team in mid-June out of regard for my sanity. I think one more season of the Dusty and Neifi show could seriously have ended my Cubfandom for the foreseeable future.
Hill put up a jaw-dropping line in Iowa this season. I think it makes sense that ZiPS went gaga over that.
I'm optimistic on Murton - I think he can get at least close to that optimistic forecast.
I don't think it's that optimistic. What may be important is the amount of playing time Murton gets against RHP. He wasn't used in any kind of platoon last year, but his PAs were skewed a bit toward LHP. At this point I think we have to expect less of that in 2007, which should work against his rate numbers.
Anyway, it's hard to argue with a projection that puts a 25 year-old almost exactly where he was at age 24.
My sentiments exactly. That's pretty much why I found better things to do with my time around Memorial Day last year.
100 IP, 62 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 135 SO
AAA is AAA of course, but that's an insane performance.
I'd rather have Hill than Zito right now.
The pitching looks decent, though. Veal could possibly get 10 starts in the bigs next year, and Gallagher's even closer with 80 AA innings in 06. Not a bad staff.
O'Malley was put on the shelf with an arm injury -- is he just rehabbing or did he have surgery?
I picked up Hill in my Roto league after his recall- it was an act of desperation- my staff was going down in flames
he gave me 55 Ip, ERA of 1.96 and WHIP of 0.891 (58/13 K/BB)
Rich Hill rules
100 IP, 62 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 135 SO
AAA is AAA of course, but that's an insane performance.
His BABIP was .282 overall and .252 vs RHB.
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Alex Rodriguez, Cub Version AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Optimistic (15%) .309 .416 .582 160 610 130 189 30 2 44 139 98 128 23 4 Mean .287 .387 .521 154 572 104 164 24 1 36 115 84 129 16 4 Pessimistic (15%) .264 .357 .464 136 489 74 129 18 0 27 86 65 116 13 5The 2005 was a bit BABIP flukey - from 2003-2006, his BABIPs have been .309, .313, .349, and .322.
Put a .318 BABIP in that line above and Hill gives up around 70 hits. Still pretty dominant.
IP/Hit/HR/BB/SO/ERA
167/149/22/72/160/4.16
At this stage I don't have anyone projected to where they'll actually pitch, but to a context neutral environment, so even with Wrigley a hitters park, Hill's projection will look better for the Cubs simply for being in the NL, both with its weaker cometition and no DH rule.
Other youngsters:
Weaver:
121/106/15/34/118/3.66
Liriano:
151/131/15/57/160/3.58
Cain:
154/140/21/75/140/4.37
Felix:
177/160/17/66/168/3.82
Verlander:
132/133/14/43/96/4.31
Hamels:
98/86/11/40/96/3.78
Papelbon:
106/94/11/38/89/3.72
and Joe Saunders:
182/184/21/69/117/4.41
When are you going to give you projections a catchy name? It's a pain in the ass to always talk about "Chone Smith's Projections" when you could give us a swanky name.
How about the Trunk Monkey projections?
-- MWE
Yes. Clay Davenport studied this a couple of years ago.
-- MWE
Good idea
Comprehensive (something) (something) (something) Evaluations.
There. That's 40% of the name.
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