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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 23, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Jim Thome* 1b 36 .270 .407 .558 130 434 84 117 23 0 34 101 99 132 0 0
Paul Konerko 1b 31 .288 .372 .535 154 553 92 159 26 0 37 115 70 105 1 0
Jermaine Dye rf 33 .293 .359 .546 143 526 85 154 27 2 34 110 51 116 6 3
Ross Gload* 1b 31 .307 .355 .481 89 212 30 65 14 1 7 34 15 32 1 1
Joe Crede 3b 29 .267 .317 .480 143 494 64 132 27 0 26 87 30 65 0 2
Josh Fields 3b 24 .262 .336 .445 132 461 79 121 28 1 18 69 50 127 13 5
Tadahito Iguchi 2b 32 .279 .348 .417 135 527 82 147 24 2 15 73 54 112 10 4
Rob Mackowiak* cf 31 .258 .332 .405 136 395 52 102 16 3 12 60 41 90 7 3
Ernie Young rf 37 .246 .334 .401 101 337 43 83 16 0 12 59 40 117 1 2
A.J. Pierzynski* c 30 .274 .319 .418 134 474 55 130 23 0 15 70 22 60 0 1
Casey Rogowski* 1b 26 .258 .329 .400 130 462 68 119 29 2 11 65 47 99 14 8
Ryan Sweeney* cf 22 .279 .329 .388 125 451 68 126 21 2 8 56 32 61 4 5
Juan Uribe ss 27 .253 .292 .455 136 475 63 120 27 3 21 78 25 80 4 4
Cory Aldridge* lf 28 .232 .296 .426 107 371 52 86 17 2 17 47 31 113 7 4
Bobby Smith 2b 33 .242 .296 .421 102 363 48 88 21 1 14 54 25 88 5 3
Scott Podsednik* lf 31 .261 .331 .354 140 537 83 140 27 4 5 51 54 93 45 16
Aaron Cunningham lf 21 .252 .316 .405 91 306 50 77 18 1 9 23 21 66 11 7
Brian Anderson cf 25 .247 .312 .392 116 360 51 89 21 2 9 43 31 85 3 4
Pablo Ozuna lf 32 .284 .321 .378 96 299 42 85 15 2 3 35 12 31 11 7
Jerry Owens* cf 26 .268 .329 .338 125 459 79 123 15 4 3 45 41 64 23 13
Corey Smith 1b 25 .221 .297 .368 128 448 55 99 19 1 15 57 46 123 3 2
Alex Cintron# ss 28 .263 .298 .362 121 392 40 103 18 3 5 48 19 42 4 2
Pedro Lopez 2b 23 .257 .294 .372 123 444 58 114 19 1 10 50 22 52 3 3
Jorge Velandia ss 32 .247 .295 .346 120 405 49 100 20 1 6 43 27 73 5 2
Chris Stewart c 25 .237 .284 .363 93 278 34 66 15 1 6 31 16 41 2 1
Chris Getz* 2b 23 .245 .311 .302 115 441 60 108 13 3 2 28 42 38 11 5
Sandy Alomar Jr. c 41 .254 .288 .331 64 118 9 30 6 0 1 13 5 18 0 0
Tony Torcato* lf 27 .246 .283 .332 108 325 31 80 14 1 4 37 14 38 2 2
Robert Valido ss 22 .237 .268 .332 93 379 56 90 15 3 5 27 14 50 21 5
Francisco Hernandez# c 21 .196 .243 .291 81 265 23 52 10 0 5 18 13 29 1 1
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Joe Crede
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .288 .346 .532 154 539 84 155 34 1 32 109 38 60 1 1
Mean .267 .317 .480 143 494 64 132 27 0 26 87 30 65 0 2
Pessimistic (15%) .249 .295 .424 111 389 46 97 20 0 16 60 20 55 0 2
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Bobby Jenks 26 3.70 4 2 64 0 73.0 63 30 6 28 80
Boone Logan* 22 4.05 3 1 56 0 60.0 55 27 4 26 52
Mike MacDougal 30 4.15 4 3 50 0 52.0 46 24 5 24 50
Javier Vazquez 30 4.21 13 10 32 31 199.0 201 93 25 55 169
Dustin Hermanson 34 4.30 5 3 45 9 90.0 87 43 10 32 65
Mark Buehrle* 28 4.36 14 11 33 33 223.0 249 108 30 49 130
David Riske 30 4.36 3 3 57 0 64.0 61 31 12 23 53
Freddy Garcia 31 4.46 13 11 32 32 212.0 219 105 28 58 153
Jose Contreras 35 4.55 12 10 31 31 192.0 193 97 26 72 140
Brandon McCarthy 23 4.69 8 7 40 17 144.0 142 75 27 40 119
Jon Garland 27 4.69 13 12 32 32 209.0 229 109 27 52 115
Josh Fields 27 4.70 4 4 54 0 69.0 71 36 9 25 49
Charlie Haeger 23 5.05 10 10 26 25 173.0 180 97 15 89 90
Neal Cotts* 27 5.12 2 2 69 0 58.0 57 33 9 27 52
Jeff Nelson 40 5.14 2 2 38 0 28.0 24 16 3 20 26
Matt Thornton* 30 5.17 3 4 59 0 54.0 50 31 9 30 51
Lance Broadway 23 5.45 6 8 23 23 147.0 172 89 26 43 71
Ray Liotta* 24 5.47 8 10 28 27 163.0 185 99 20 72 78
Tim Redding 29 5.65 8 11 28 25 156.0 177 98 29 57 86
Arnie Munoz* 25 5.85 5 9 35 12 103.0 115 67 20 45 69
Valerio de los Santos* 34 6.07 1 1 23 6 46.0 50 31 8 24 27
Paulino Reynoso* 26 6.64 2 5 50 0 61.0 66 45 11 45 40
Sean Tracey 26 6.78 5 13 32 23 150.0 174 113 36 81 79
Edwardo Sierra 25 7.11 1 4 38 1 62.0 69 49 11 48 37
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Mark Buehrle
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.81 17 10 34 34 234 248 99 27 46 138
Mean 4.36 14 11 33 33 223 249 108 30 49 130
Pessimistic (15%) 5.40 9 12 28 28 180 222 108 30 44 102
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 23, 2006 at 05:56 PM | 60 comment(s)
Related News: Chi White Sox, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Chi White Sox, Projections, ZIPS
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Also, should the White Sox plug Ross Gload into leftfield and let him try to put up that projection over a full year?
As much as I like Ross Gload (and I do like Ross Gload), he's not a good outfielder. Before the Konerko re-signing and the Thome trade, I was advocating for him to be full-time first baseman in 2006, but now? I doubt he'll be on the team next year. I think he'll catch on somewhere where they need a cheap first baseman, and people will wonder where he came from.
A couple more comments -
1) I doubt Matt Thornton will regress as much as ZiPS thinks he will. I get why the numbers are what they are, but I doubt that his control problems will be as much of a problem going forward.
2) Charlie Haeger, as a knuckleballer, is basically impossible to predict. I'll take those numbers with a giant grain of salt.
3) All in all, I agree that this is a pretty mediocre pitching staff. If they experience another downgrade on defense, they may well give up 900 runs next year.
Couple of comments...
1.) I don't think Fields would come near that line. I think he'd struggle as much as Anderson did last year, seeing that he struck out more than Anderson did at AAA.
2.) Wow, ZiPS really hates the Sox staff, ehh? If they perform like that, it's going to be a while until the Sox are playing baseball well into October.
3.) I think I'd be pretty happy if McCarthy put up that ERA in his first year as a starter.
I honestly don't see any projections that are clearly way off. Jose Contreras is hard to project, so he might beat that projection (then again, he might fall off the table), but other than that, those numbers pass the sniff test, at least for the starters. I dunno, maybe Mark Buehrle will bounce back.
I think they've got five mediocre starters that are very defense-dependent. Buehrle, Garland, and the new-and-not-improved Freddy Garcia, in particular, need good defenses behind them, or they'll fail.
Yeah, but it's almost neutral on overall offense levels. The park increases homers but suppresses other kinds of XBH.
The starters' ERAs are better in ZiPS across the board. The only one that's likely WAY off is Thornton. I think it undersells MacDougal, and a healthy Jenks beats his easily. Jenks didn't look right the last month of the season, though.
As is, I don't think Garcia is ever going to pitch in a White Sox uniform again. I think he's gone in a trade this winter.
The starters' ERAs are better in ZiPS across the board. The only one that's likely WAY off is Thornton. I think it undersells MacDougal, and a healthy Jenks beats his easily. Jenks didn't look right the last month of the season, though.
I suppose you're right. I'd bet that Contreras, Buehrle, and Garland each beat their projections, although I could see where the 'average-ish' projection is coming from.
That's also a pretty impressive line for Aaron Cunningham, considering he hasn't even played one game at Birmingham. I don't think he's even played a game at Winston Salem yet, either.
This projection also furthers my opinion that Kenny Williams needs to go out and find a backup right-handed catcher this winter. Considering that the main offensive weakness on the team lies in their (lack of) hitting against lefties, you'd think that it would be obvious to find somebody who can mash southpaws.
Billy!
Though I am not really a Gload fan.
Good lord, people are naming themselves after Metric references now?
As for the pitching projections, I think they're pretty fair. The Vazquez projection seems positively optimistic, but JV always has great peripheral stats and maybe that's fooling ZiPS? Contreras seems like a good candidate to falter more (unknown age, worked hard young, back problems...). Garland might do better though. He was very good after a terrible, terrible April-May. I'm actually optimistic about him posting better than career-average numbers next year.
I agree completely about getting a RH backup C. People are generally dismissive of the importance of a backup catcher (White Sox front office included, it seems). But a solid lefty-masher would be a huge boost for the Sox lineup. Plus AJ is getting older and could use some more days off. I'd be very happy if they somehow snagged Torrealba (who happens to be Venezualan, it's a perfect match).
I beat this drum plenty during the midseason, but that looks unlikely now. Closser's gone, Ardoin's done, and that leaves Torrealba and Iannetta, and there's no way they're letting the rookie hang by himself. The Rockies are sitting (crouching?) pretty.
My favorite thing about Torrealba is that you can rearrange the letters in his name to spell "Lavatory Orbiter."
I certainly agree with that. It's depressing that (for all intents and purposes) the Sox' best pitching prospect, Lance Broadway, projects to have an ERA in the mid-fives. I'm not trying to take ZiPS as gospel, but looking up and down that list isn't pleasant. On that note, the Sox really need McCarthy to be an effective starter for the forseeable future, or else they aren't going to keep up with Detroit and Minnesota. And, while I respect the job that Kenny Williams has done over the past couple seasons, I'd like to see the Sox do a better job of infusing talent from Latin America. You'd think that Ozzie would have a bit of 'pull' in that area, but in Ozzie's three years here, we've seen nothing come from that area.
Kenny does tend to give up a lot of arms, and that may come back to hurt him someday, but I think he realizes a lot of minor league pitchers are very capable of burning out and he's willing to trade them for actual value before they flame out. Of the arms he gave up to get Carl Everett (I'm talking both times here), Francisco *may* turn out to be a hard-throwing quality middle reliever, Josh Rupe's ceiling is that of a LOOGY, Majewski's been OK in the majors so far but that low-K rate is a bit scary, and Rauch looks like he'll be a good middle reliever. In the Thome deal, Haigwood seems to be a fringe prospect with major control issues; Gio looks like a legitimately good prospect, though he also has control problems. And I'd take Alex Cintron over Bajenaru.
I'm really surprised Aaron Cunningham didn't make BA's top 20 Sally League prospects. .305/.386/.496 for a 20-year old playing in a pitcher's environment is pretty impressive. How's his defense? BA said he needs work on his outfield 'instincts,' but he played 2B in high school and college. It's also odd that Kyle McCulloch is missing from both the Pioneer and Carolina League lists. Granted, he only pitched about sixty pro innings this season, but I'd still consider him a pretty decent prospect.
As for minor-league FA catchers, there doesn't seem to be much outside of Juan Brito and J.R. House. Der-Kommiskar mentioned former prospect Guillermo Quiroz in another thread, and he's probably worth at least a look (.304/.359/.428 in 38 games for Tacoma, though he's only hit .200 in limited major-league playing time). Aside from that, well... there's Jamie Burke and Mark Johnson.
To be fair, considering that Latin Americans are signed as teenagers, if there was any "Ozzie effect," the players would only be about 20 now and entering various rookie leagues. I'd give it a couple more seasons.
But yeah, of the Sox top 20 prospects or so, a good majority of them will probably be from the US.
The Sox have two Josh Fieldses.
This is cooler.
I think that Joe Crede has a great chance of beating that projection, but I'm not sure Field's has even that good a chance of matching his. I'll go out on a limb and say that Crede beats his 15th percentile projection by a wide margin.
ROSS GLOAD!
Also nice to see that Jermaine Dye looks to have another strong year in him.
The pitchers all look pretty good. I'm assuming these numbers are regressed, right? They've all got good to outstanding chances of beating those projections.
Once again, Boone Logan is not ready for the bigs. This is another Josh Fields situation, where I think the projections are far too optimistic. Oh, and Thorton, Cotts and Haeger could have ERAs anywhere from a run to two runs below those projections. I'm note sure that Cotts is finished yet.
You're saying he'll put together an All-Star caliber season? If he's healthy (which is far from a given), I don't think it a stretch for him to approach that optimistic line, but I think he already had his breakthrough season. I don't think we're getting too much more out of Joe Crede than we've already seen.
My guess is that he'll either beat his mean projection by quite a bit, or he'll have a miserable, injury-plagued season and fail to match even his pessimistic line.
For the vast majority of the season, about 4 1/2 months, he hit .300. And he hit .300 pretty consistently. His walk rate sucked, like always. His K rate halved. I agree that his back could put him out of commission as could any number of other injuries. But I'd say his true talent level is at or below .300. I think he does well in 2007.
I wish I had your confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if Garland beat that projection, but Buehrle's projection looks really optimistic to me given how he finished the season this year, and Contreras is impossible to predict.
Yeah, I think he broke the career minor-league home run record in a Knights uniform this year.
This is cooler.
Hm...kind of a beer/scotch hybrid. Intriguing.
He did. Young's day is long gone, though.
The SAL is a big league; it's hard for anyone to make a top-20. Cunningham's season was nice, but Eric Campbell (the position player ahead of him on the top-20) had a season that was at least as good, is about the same age, and is an infielder to boot. Also, Kannapolis was a pretty bad team most of the season, which makes it easier for a good prospect to be overlooked.
He didn't pitch enough at either level to qualify. He'd have been top-5 in the Pioneer, probably top-15 in the CarL.
-- MWE
ZIPS really doesn't like Garland. It predicts him to have the 2nd worst year of his career at age 28 despite his greatly improved walk rate the last 2 years. All of the others seem pretty reasonable. Although I expect Contreras to be better than that. I'd be quite happy if Vazquez, Garcia and Buehrle reach those projections.
Jose Contreras 4.27 4.55
Jon Garland 4.51 4.69
Freddy Garcia 4.53 4.46
Javier Vazquez 4.84 4.21
Mark Buehrle 4.99 4.36
Average 4.63 4.45
Brandon McCarthy 4.68 4.69
Um, is there a problem?
Or maybe it's just frustrating that Canadian bands like that continously make it big in the States while Joel Plaskett and the Hip stay at home
I don't see Joel or the Weakerthans playing no Conan
And if O'Brien isn't the biggest it gets, I don't know what is
In the minds of Canadians I think having more than 3 Americans know who you are counts as "making it big"
It's what García was missing for most of the year -- 5-6 mph on his fastball, sometimes more (or less, I guess). He pitched well down the stretch, having recovered some of that velocity. I guess the question is whether his first 4-1/2 months of the season are closer to what he'll be going forward than the last six weeks or so.
Actually, I like Metric quite a bit. Combat Baby is as close to being a perfect pop song as one can get. The only better hooks I've come across lately are from Ted Leo.
Only 15 years into his career! And the Weakerthans last album was poo. 5 best bands/musicians in Canada right now:
1. Ladyhawk
2. Metric
3. New Pornographers
4. the Hip (still)
5. Plaskett
Do not ask 'Where's Broken Social Scene?' or I'll stab you with something rusty. Like the Tigers offense.
The infamous Canadian Music Scene hi-jack
so how many of you are Canadian?
and on a side note, just arranged to get my Hip ticket for January
It's too bad Plaskett isn't opening for them again...*drool
But, projecting only two players with over 150 hits emphasizes the need for two batters at the top of the order...
I think you're confused: as mentioned above, the Sox have two minor leaguers named Josh Fields. If you understand that distinction, you'll also notice that Fields 'the pitcher' isn't projected to start any games. Rather, he's projected to go 4-4 in 56 relief appearances.
As has been pointed out before, the White Sox have both a position player named Josh Fields (Joshua D. Fields) and a pitcher named Josh Fields (Joshua Lee Fields); they are two separate individuals.
-- MWE
Do you have proof? Have you seen them on the field at the same time?
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