Contreras' projection seems exceedingly pessimistic. His K rate went down this year, but so did his homers and walks.

Also, should the White Sox plug Ross Gload into leftfield and let him try to put up that projection over a full year?

Also, should the White Sox plug Ross Gload into leftfield and let him try to put up that projection over a full year?

As much as I like Ross Gload (and I do like Ross Gload), he's not a good outfielder. Before the Konerko re-signing and the Thome trade, I was advocating for him to be full-time first baseman in 2006, but now? I doubt he'll be on the team next year. I think he'll catch on somewhere where they need a cheap first baseman, and people will wonder where he came from.

A couple more comments -

1) I doubt Matt Thornton will regress as much as ZiPS thinks he will. I get why the numbers are what they are, but I doubt that his control problems will be as much of a problem going forward.

2) Charlie Haeger, as a knuckleballer, is basically impossible to predict. I'll take those numbers with a giant grain of salt.

3) All in all, I agree that this is a pretty mediocre pitching staff. If they experience another downgrade on defense, they may well give up 900 runs next year.

Dan, do you have a projection for Oneli Perez? He's a reliever who shot up through the Sox' system with some nasty K numbers.

Couple of comments...

1.) I don't think Fields would come near that line. I think he'd struggle as much as Anderson did last year, seeing that he struck out more than Anderson did at AAA.

2.) Wow, ZiPS really hates the Sox staff, ehh? If they perform like that, it's going to be a while until the Sox are playing baseball well into October.

3.) I think I'd be pretty happy if McCarthy put up that ERA in his first year as a starter.

How much of these numbers are the park? Isn't Cellular a pretty extreme home run park?

Wow, ZiPS really hates the Sox staff, ehh?

I honestly don't see any projections that are clearly way off. Jose Contreras is hard to project, so he might beat that projection (then again, he might fall off the table), but other than that, those numbers pass the sniff test, at least for the starters. I dunno, maybe Mark Buehrle will bounce back.

I think they've got five mediocre starters that are very defense-dependent. Buehrle, Garland, and the new-and-not-improved Freddy Garcia, in particular, need good defenses behind them, or they'll fail.

The White Sox REALLY need to draft this guy in June...

Isn't Cellular a pretty extreme home run park?

Yeah, but it's almost neutral on overall offense levels. The park increases homers but suppresses other kinds of XBH.

Wow, ZiPS really hates the Sox staff, ehh?

The starters' ERAs are better in ZiPS across the board. The only one that's likely WAY off is Thornton. I think it undersells MacDougal, and a healthy Jenks beats his easily. Jenks didn't look right the last month of the season, though.

I think they've got five mediocre starters that are very defense-dependent. Buehrle, Garland, and the new-and-not-improved Freddy Garcia, in particular, need good defenses behind them, or they'll fail.

As is, I don't think Garcia is ever going to pitch in a White Sox uniform again. I think he's gone in a trade this winter.

The starters' ERAs are better in ZiPS across the board. The only one that's likely WAY off is Thornton. I think it undersells MacDougal, and a healthy Jenks beats his easily. Jenks didn't look right the last month of the season, though.

I suppose you're right. I'd bet that Contreras, Buehrle, and Garland each beat their projections, although I could see where the 'average-ish' projection is coming from.

That's also a pretty impressive line for Aaron Cunningham, considering he hasn't even played one game at Birmingham. I don't think he's even played a game at Winston Salem yet, either.

This projection also furthers my opinion that Kenny Williams needs to go out and find a backup right-handed catcher this winter. Considering that the main offensive weakness on the team lies in their (lack of) hitting against lefties, you'd think that it would be obvious to find somebody who can mash southpaws.

I think he'll catch on somewhere where they need a cheap first baseman, and people will wonder where he came from.

Billy!

Though I am not really a Gload fan.

Athletic Supporter fought the war but the war won

Good lord, people are naming themselves after Metric references now?

In answer to CWSKeith (post #3), Oneli Perez is a minor league FA, according to the MiLB FA list This surprised me, because his numbers were pretty eye-popping and the Sox had room on the 40 man roster. It seems like every offseason Kenny Williams feels he has to give up at least one talented player as a minor league FA.

As for the pitching projections, I think they're pretty fair. The Vazquez projection seems positively optimistic, but JV always has great peripheral stats and maybe that's fooling ZiPS? Contreras seems like a good candidate to falter more (unknown age, worked hard young, back problems...). Garland might do better though. He was very good after a terrible, terrible April-May. I'm actually optimistic about him posting better than career-average numbers next year.

I agree completely about getting a RH backup C. People are generally dismissive of the importance of a backup catcher (White Sox front office included, it seems). But a solid lefty-masher would be a huge boost for the Sox lineup. Plus AJ is getting older and could use some more days off. I'd be very happy if they somehow snagged Torrealba (who happens to be Venezualan, it's a perfect match).

Is Ramon Castro a free agent? He'd be an ideal lefty-mashing catcher.

Rage, I looked on that list, and Perez isn't on it. Am I missing something?

I'd be very happy if they somehow snagged Torrealba (who happens to be Venezualan, it's a perfect match).

I beat this drum plenty during the midseason, but that looks unlikely now. Closser's gone, Ardoin's done, and that leaves Torrealba and Iannetta, and there's no way they're letting the rookie hang by himself. The Rockies are sitting (crouching?) pretty.

My favorite thing about Torrealba is that you can rearrange the letters in his name to spell "Lavatory Orbiter."

#14 -- No, you're absolutely right. Geez, I could have sworn I saw his name there. I checked BA's list and he's not listed there either. So, I guess all I can say is that I must not have properly ventilated my house while painting today. Anyway, I'm glad to be wrong. Promising arms are hard to find in the Sox minor league system.

Anyway, I'm glad to be wrong. Promising arms are hard to find in the Sox minor league system.

I certainly agree with that. It's depressing that (for all intents and purposes) the Sox' best pitching prospect, Lance Broadway, projects to have an ERA in the mid-fives. I'm not trying to take ZiPS as gospel, but looking up and down that list isn't pleasant. On that note, the Sox really need McCarthy to be an effective starter for the forseeable future, or else they aren't going to keep up with Detroit and Minnesota. And, while I respect the job that Kenny Williams has done over the past couple seasons, I'd like to see the Sox do a better job of infusing talent from Latin America. You'd think that Ozzie would have a bit of 'pull' in that area, but in Ozzie's three years here, we've seen nothing come from that area.

Perez is listed as a free agent on this list, though I'm almost positive that's not correct.

Kenny does tend to give up a lot of arms, and that may come back to hurt him someday, but I think he realizes a lot of minor league pitchers are very capable of burning out and he's willing to trade them for actual value before they flame out. Of the arms he gave up to get Carl Everett (I'm talking both times here), Francisco *may* turn out to be a hard-throwing quality middle reliever, Josh Rupe's ceiling is that of a LOOGY, Majewski's been OK in the majors so far but that low-K rate is a bit scary, and Rauch looks like he'll be a good middle reliever. In the Thome deal, Haigwood seems to be a fringe prospect with major control issues; Gio looks like a legitimately good prospect, though he also has control problems. And I'd take Alex Cintron over Bajenaru.

I'm really surprised Aaron Cunningham didn't make BA's top 20 Sally League prospects. .305/.386/.496 for a 20-year old playing in a pitcher's environment is pretty impressive. How's his defense? BA said he needs work on his outfield 'instincts,' but he played 2B in high school and college. It's also odd that Kyle McCulloch is missing from both the Pioneer and Carolina League lists. Granted, he only pitched about sixty pro innings this season, but I'd still consider him a pretty decent prospect.

As for minor-league FA catchers, there doesn't seem to be much outside of Juan Brito and J.R. House. Der-Kommiskar mentioned former prospect Guillermo Quiroz in another thread, and he's probably worth at least a look (.304/.359/.428 in 38 games for Tacoma, though he's only hit .200 in limited major-league playing time). Aside from that, well... there's Jamie Burke and Mark Johnson.

And Rauch's name means "smoke," which is cool.

And, while I respect the job that Kenny Williams has done over the past couple seasons, I'd like to see the Sox do a better job of infusing talent from Latin America. You'd think that Ozzie would have a bit of 'pull' in that area, but in Ozzie's three years here, we've seen nothing come from that area.


To be fair, considering that Latin Americans are signed as teenagers, if there was any "Ozzie effect," the players would only be about 20 now and entering various rookie leagues. I'd give it a couple more seasons.

But yeah, of the Sox top 20 prospects or so, a good majority of them will probably be from the US.

Re: Latin America, I think the White Sox are at least thinking about starting an academy in Venezuela. They may have already put the wheels in motion on one. I can't remember.

Why does Josh Fields have a pitching line? What am I missing?

Why does Josh Fields have a pitching line? What am I missing?

The Sox have two Josh Fieldses.

And Rauch's name means "smoke," which is cool.

This is cooler.

Couple of things. Ok, more than a couple:

I think that Joe Crede has a great chance of beating that projection, but I'm not sure Field's has even that good a chance of matching his. I'll go out on a limb and say that Crede beats his 15th percentile projection by a wide margin.

ROSS GLOAD!

Also nice to see that Jermaine Dye looks to have another strong year in him.

The pitchers all look pretty good. I'm assuming these numbers are regressed, right? They've all got good to outstanding chances of beating those projections.

Once again, Boone Logan is not ready for the bigs. This is another Josh Fields situation, where I think the projections are far too optimistic. Oh, and Thorton, Cotts and Haeger could have ERAs anywhere from a run to two runs below those projections. I'm note sure that Cotts is finished yet.

I'll go out on a limb and say that Crede beats his 15th percentile projection by a wide margin.

You're saying he'll put together an All-Star caliber season? If he's healthy (which is far from a given), I don't think it a stretch for him to approach that optimistic line, but I think he already had his breakthrough season. I don't think we're getting too much more out of Joe Crede than we've already seen.

My guess is that he'll either beat his mean projection by quite a bit, or he'll have a miserable, injury-plagued season and fail to match even his pessimistic line.

I should explain. I'm optimistic about the Sox's starters because I think--and I could be wrong--that these numbers are regressed and have 2006 as their most recent statistical baseline. I don't think McCarthy's 2006 out of the bullpen does him justice, so I could see him coming in at around 4.1 for ERA. The same could be said of Buehrle and Garland and especially Contreras. I'd give them all great odds of beating those projections. The same applies to many members of the bullpen, with the exception of Boone Logan.

My guess is that he'll either beat his mean projection by quite a bit, or he'll have a miserable, injury-plagued season and fail to match even his pessimistic line.

For the vast majority of the season, about 4 1/2 months, he hit .300. And he hit .300 pretty consistently. His walk rate sucked, like always. His K rate halved. I agree that his back could put him out of commission as could any number of other injuries. But I'd say his true talent level is at or below .300. I think he does well in 2007.

The same could be said of Buehrle and Garland and especially Contreras. I'd give them all great odds of beating those projections.

I wish I had your confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if Garland beat that projection, but Buehrle's projection looks really optimistic to me given how he finished the season this year, and Contreras is impossible to predict.

Ernie Young's in the Sox organization? Cool!

Ernie Young's in the Sox organization?

Yeah, I think he broke the career minor-league home run record in a Knights uniform this year.

JRE, I'm just happy ZIPS doesn't predict a collapse for any of the starters. Considering that 2006 is the most recent baseline for the statistical analysis and that the numbers are regressed anyway, anything under 5 looks like an ERA success to me. I think these guys are great bounce back candidates. I've been right before and I've been wrong before, and time will tell which camp I fall into this time.

And Rauch's name means "smoke," which is cool.

This is cooler.

Hm...kind of a beer/scotch hybrid. Intriguing.

Yeah, I think he broke the career minor-league home run record in a Knights uniform this year.

He did. Young's day is long gone, though.

I'm really surprised Aaron Cunningham didn't make BA's top 20 Sally League prospects. .305/.386/.496 for a 20-year old playing in a pitcher's environment is pretty impressive.

The SAL is a big league; it's hard for anyone to make a top-20. Cunningham's season was nice, but Eric Campbell (the position player ahead of him on the top-20) had a season that was at least as good, is about the same age, and is an infielder to boot. Also, Kannapolis was a pretty bad team most of the season, which makes it easier for a good prospect to be overlooked.

It's also odd that Kyle McCulloch is missing from both the Pioneer and Carolina League lists. Granted, he only pitched about sixty pro innings this season, but I'd still consider him a pretty decent prospect.

He didn't pitch enough at either level to qualify. He'd have been top-5 in the Pioneer, probably top-15 in the CarL.

-- MWE

Just comparing 2006 ERAs to ZIPS. Of course the big four from 2005 all had ERA's under 4 in 2005.

ZIPS really doesn't like Garland. It predicts him to have the 2nd worst year of his career at age 28 despite his greatly improved walk rate the last 2 years. All of the others seem pretty reasonable. Although I expect Contreras to be better than that. I'd be quite happy if Vazquez, Garcia and Buehrle reach those projections.

Jose Contreras 4.27 4.55
Jon Garland 4.51 4.69
Freddy Garcia 4.53 4.46
Javier Vazquez 4.84 4.21
Mark Buehrle 4.99 4.36
Average 4.63 4.45


Brandon McCarthy 4.68 4.69

No projection for Jack Keefe?

Yeah, no Keefe projection is a Major Oversight. He was a lynchpin, cheerleader and all-around great guy during their run to Glory in 'O5.

Good lord, people are naming themselves after Metric references now?

Um, is there a problem?

I think he's implying Metric isn't a very good band

Or maybe it's just frustrating that Canadian bands like that continously make it big in the States while Joel Plaskett and the Hip stay at home

What? Metric has by no means "made it big" in the States.

Sure they have!
I don't see Joel or the Weakerthans playing no Conan

And if O'Brien isn't the biggest it gets, I don't know what is

I suppose I should ammend that

In the minds of Canadians I think having more than 3 Americans know who you are counts as "making it big"

Why do people keep talking about Garcia like he's toast? From someone who didn't see him much this year, his numbers look like a slightly down year from a remarkably consistent pitcher. Cut those HRs a bit and he's once again very good. What am I missing?

Why do people keep talking about Garcia like he's toast? ... What am I missing?

It's what García was missing for most of the year -- 5-6 mph on his fastball, sometimes more (or less, I guess). He pitched well down the stretch, having recovered some of that velocity. I guess the question is whether his first 4-1/2 months of the season are closer to what he'll be going forward than the last six weeks or so.

Joel Plaskett is one seriously talented musician. All you Americans out there this is your chance to get in on the ground floor.

I think he's implying Metric isn't a very good band

Actually, I like Metric quite a bit. Combat Baby is as close to being a perfect pop song as one can get. The only better hooks I've come across lately are from Ted Leo.

Joel Plaskett is one seriously talented musician. All you Americans out there this is your chance to get in on the ground floor.

Only 15 years into his career! And the Weakerthans last album was poo. 5 best bands/musicians in Canada right now:

1. Ladyhawk
2. Metric
3. New Pornographers
4. the Hip (still)
5. Plaskett

Do not ask 'Where's Broken Social Scene?' or I'll stab you with something rusty. Like the Tigers offense.

Crap. Wolf Parade shopuld be in that top 5 somewhere.

Garcia developed a splitter towards the end of the year, if i remember correctly.

Hooray!
The infamous Canadian Music Scene hi-jack

so how many of you are Canadian?
and on a side note, just arranged to get my Hip ticket for January
It's too bad Plaskett isn't opening for them again...*drool

Any list of top Canadian bands that doesn't prominently feature the High Dials is worthless.

Any list of top Canadian bands that doesn't prominently feature the Guess Who is worthless.

No love for Final Fantasy? Destroyer?

I'm a big Destroyer fan, but I thought I'd let it go since Bejar is in New Pornographers as well.

Any list of top Canadian bands that doesn't prominently feature Shania Twain is worthless.

Josh Fields going 4-4 as a starting pitcher summarizes my impression of the value of this prognostication....ha-ha...

But, projecting only two players with over 150 hits emphasizes the need for two batters at the top of the order...

Josh Fields going 4-4 as a starting pitcher summarizes my impression of the value of this prognostication....ha-ha...

I think you're confused: as mentioned above, the Sox have two minor leaguers named Josh Fields. If you understand that distinction, you'll also notice that Fields 'the pitcher' isn't projected to start any games. Rather, he's projected to go 4-4 in 56 relief appearances.

Josh Fields going 4-4 as a starting pitcher summarizes my impression of the value of this prognostication

As has been pointed out before, the White Sox have both a position player named Josh Fields (Joshua D. Fields) and a pitcher named Josh Fields (Joshua Lee Fields); they are two separate individuals.

-- MWE

Thanks...I was just being sarcastic relative to my lack of respect or attention to the fact that numeric analysis has taken over the focus of those who watch the game...I guess I wasn't more clear in my humor....thought the ha-ha covered it...sorry....

As has been pointed out before, the White Sox have both a position player named Josh Fields (Joshua D. Fields) and a pitcher named Josh Fields (Joshua Lee Fields); they are two separate individuals.

Do you have proof? Have you seen them on the field at the same time?