Ramon Santiago looks like Neifi JR!!!

I knew andrew miller was good but...

how many starters reach the majors a year after being drafted?

A Josh Phelps signing!

A Josh Phelps sighting! (sorry in advance if this is a double post)

HEY, T.O.:

YOU KNOW WHAT WOULD BE COOL - A 2007 ZIPS JUST FOR FREE AGENTS!!!

I knew andrew miller was good but...

how many starters reach the majors a year after being drafted?

Mark Prior did.

If Andrew Miller reaches the majors next year, IMO, it will likely be as a reliever. My expectation is that he will start the season in Erie, with a promotion to AAA a strong possibility sometime around late May if he dominates the EL.

-- MWE

If Andrew Miller reaches the majors next year, IMO, it will likely be as a reliever.

I agree, especially considering that was his role this year. The Tiger bullpen has only Walker as true lefty RP (Ledezma and Maroth are really more starters). I am hoping that they want to use Miller like the Twins used Santana.

Walker's a free agent, I believe. Also, never mind Miller's projection: how about Humberto's & Jurrjens's? That team may have serious OBP issues, but it's loaded with starting pitching.

Just wondering, how much accuracy does ZiPS have on a guy that has a grand total of 15.1 professional innings as Miller does? That just seems far too optimistic for me especially if he is used as a starter at all seeing as how he really only has 2 usable pitches. As a starter, sinking 90-95 and that slurve is a good 1-2 combo, but ML hitters tend to be able to adjust. I could see him being a dominant reliever because he can dial 97, but not yet as a starter. I dunno, I'm just not nearly as high on Miller as a lot of people.

Think they might rethink trading Bonderman?

I actually think a 22/139 K/BB is optimistic for Kirkland.

Er, BB/K. You know what I meant.

Ryan Ludwick would be a pretty nice half-platoon, wouldn't he?

Those are pretty damn amazing numbers for Bonderman, especially considering they all have him losing ground on his K/9.

Also, never mind Miller's projection: how about Humberto's & Jurrjens's?

I'd want to be sure that Sanchez is fully recovered from his injury - the Tigers kept downplaying it, but he kept not pitching after early August.

Jurrjens had a good year, true, but his HR rate spiked up after he moved to Erie, and he's more of a command/location guy than a miss-bats guy. My guess is that it will be at least 2008 before he's ready for major league hitters, and I would not be at all surprised to see him start at Erie again. I expect him to need adjustment time at every level.

-- MWE

Just wondering, how much accuracy does ZiPS have on a guy that has a grand total of 15.1 professional innings as Miller does?

Zero. Miller's one of those guys I include because people ##### if he's not there, a la Weeks a few years ago.

I'd be ecstatic if I could take those numbers for the starting pitchers right now.

Shelton seems a little high for a guy who's had one great month in his career.

Hopefully Zumaya will be better than that. Gotta love Bonderman's numbers.

I really hope we keep Bonderman. Nate/Maroth & a prospect (NOT Sanchez) for Dunn.

If the Tigers trade Bonderman, they will regret it for years to come. He is not as highly regarded as Beckett, but is (currently and in the future) the better pitcher.

Shelton seems a little high for a guy who's had one great month in his career.


Too bad he's not that guy - lest people forget (and I'm surprised that you're one of 'em!), Shelton hit 299/360/510 in 2005 in more plate appearances than he got in 2006.

Shelton has some fine #s in the minors, though everyone seems to focus on him falling to pieces this year. He's useful, but batting as a right-hander, he may have a difficult time catching on somewhere else.

Those are pretty damn amazing numbers for Bonderman, especially considering they all have him losing ground on his K/9.

Shrug, they are a slight improvement. His WHIP drops from 1.30 this year to 1.23 in the projection, but his HR/9 goes from 0.76 this year to a projected 0.92 next year. Overall, a modest improvement, which I think can be expected from a 24 y.o. (or whatever he is) with his peripherals.

The K/9 numbers are expected regression, I'm sure.

Shelton is useless. Detroit should trade him (to the Angels) for some trinkets.

Shelton seems a little high for a guy who's had one great month in his career.


Too bad he's not that guy - lest people forget (and I'm surprised that you're one of 'em!), Shelton hit 299/360/510 in 2005 in more plate appearances than he got in 2006.

Not to mention that he's hit .281/.348/.477 in 899 MLB PAs
and he'll be 27 next year.

Shelton reminds me of Juan Rivera, ZIPs had him projected to hit .286/.336/.460 and a lot of posters complained that was too high even though his career mark heading into 2006 was 283/.331/.452.

... I meant ZIPs projections for Juan Rivera in 2006...

Shelton reminds me of Juan Rivera,

Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player. (Not that I'm saying shelton is, but Rivera fit that bill).

Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player.

Part of this is due to pinch-hitting at-bats that a lot of part-timers get, especially in the NL. While working on ZiPS a few years ago, I found that removing pinch-hitting at-bats from player projections actually increased the accuracy of the projections despite decreasing the amount of data you have to work with.

I found that removing pinch-hitting at-bats from player projections actually increased the accuracy of the projections despite decreasing the amount of data you have to work with.

Which made me think of Hee Sop Choi... with a career mark of .357/.455 when not pinchhitting he could have been projected to be a viable 1B... of course his bat vaporized in '06...

Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player.

It's not that much of a crapshoot- guys like Kielty and Jason MIchaels (to add another) should not be expected to succeed as FT players since much of their apparent success as PTers is partly driven by taking advantage of a platoon differential in their favor and also may arise fromm a sample size fluke- an MLB average player (like a Kielty) will have a 250-350 AB stretch sooner or later where they put up an OPS+ of 125 or higher- In Kielty's case there was never anything in his track record, MLB or minor league to suggest thate his 138 OPS+ in 2002 was anything other than a onetime fluke.

as to little Jeremy- I'm not sure he's an example of anything (don't do drugs maybe?)
I'm not aware that he was ever a FT player, at his best he could almost hit well enough to overlook that he did everything else worse than the average beer league softballer- I think it would have been interesting if a team just made him their DH and started him 150 games- but it never happened...

Juan Rivera on the other hand has had a pretty clear track record- he hits well when he plays regularly, he doesn't hit well when he plays sporadically. For various reasons he's tended to get more consistent PT in the second half of seasons- and in his career post ASB he's hit .320/.369/.507- he has virtually no platoon split- he hits righties as well as he hits lefties.
Personally I've been mystified at how 3 organizations have simply decided- contrary to all objective evidence- that he's not a regular player and have [mis]handled him- it'd be quite amusing if going into 2007 as a career .291 hitter coming off a .310/.362/.525 year, he gets benched in April or May the first time he goes ofer two games.

as to little Jeremy- I'm not sure he's an example of anything (don't do drugs maybe?)
I'm not aware that he was ever a FT player, at his best he could almost hit well enough to overlook that he did everything else worse than the average beer league softballer- I think it would have been interesting if a team just made him their DH and started him 150 games- but it never happened...

Yeah, his body fell apart (wrist, torn labrum, career-ending back problems within a 10 months span) before he had a chance to succeed or fail as a full-time DH.

It all worked out for Sox fans in the end - if Giambi hadn't had such a poor start, David Ortiz' awful April makes him the odd man out instead. It's very interesting how the careers of Giambi and Ortiz diverged - Ortiz wasn't exactly highly thought-of in those days.

Just wondering, how much accuracy does ZiPS have on a guy that has a grand total of 15.1 professional innings as Miller does?

It's really weird that a 21 year old with a 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP in A+ ball and a 6.10 ERA in 10.0 IP at MLB gets predicted at 4.11 ERA, 127.0 IP in MLB the following season.

That sort of prediction doesn't seem so far off if you ascribe nervousness as affecting Miller's control in MLB last year, but a scout would be doing that, not a computer projection.

That sort of prediction doesn't seem so far off if you ascribe nervousness as affecting Miller's control in MLB last year, but a scout would be doing that, not a computer projection.

I have a very rough outline at a college translation, but I only use that in the very rare case as I mention above, of a player that has almost no professional experience but people still expect that player to have a projection.