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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, November 06, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Alex Gordon* 3b 23 .275 .361 .473 139 491 63 135 35 1 20 72 56 137 15 4
Ryan Shealy 1b 27 .288 .349 .479 128 451 71 130 30 1 18 77 39 128 2 1
Mark Teahen* 3b 25 .277 .349 .461 145 505 77 140 34 7 15 72 56 119 8 1
Mike Sweeney dh 33 .275 .338 .470 88 334 42 92 23 0 14 54 29 50 2 0
Billy Butler rf 21 .292 .339 .447 142 535 68 156 36 1 15 79 35 94 1 0
Emil Brown rf 32 .281 .343 .438 139 498 67 140 32 2 14 69 45 94 6 2
David DeJesus* lf 27 .287 .355 .431 128 501 81 144 31 4 11 55 46 76 8 6
Justin Huber 1b 24 .272 .337 .456 127 430 57 117 27 2 16 60 42 106 4 3
Esteban German 2b 29 .290 .359 .386 108 352 66 102 19 3 3 39 37 53 15 5
Doug Mientkiewicz* 1b 33 .255 .342 .383 101 329 41 84 22 1 6 36 42 51 2 1
Reggie Sanders rf 39 .252 .312 .438 80 274 39 69 16 1 11 38 23 71 8 3
Chris Lubanski* lf 22 .259 .323 .421 159 591 80 153 39 6 15 67 55 152 8 6
Chad Allen rf 32 .286 .327 .409 93 350 35 100 21 2 6 46 21 59 4 5
John Buck c 26 .251 .307 .432 116 387 47 97 20 1 16 51 29 87 1 1
Mark Grudzielanek 2b 37 .288 .327 .382 117 458 64 132 27 2 4 42 25 62 2 2
Mike Coolbaugh 1b 35 .237 .305 .421 87 304 47 72 17 0 13 46 28 72 2 1
Jeff Keppinger 2b 27 .286 .338 .360 115 419 48 120 17 1 4 35 33 27 3 3
Shane Costa* lf 25 .267 .305 .401 129 446 46 119 29 2 9 43 21 52 5 0
Mitch Maier* cf 25 .260 .303 .419 148 554 78 144 40 3 14 71 32 111 9 8
Joey Gathright* cf 26 .269 .335 .330 135 409 66 110 16 3 1 32 37 78 29 15
Angel Berroa ss 29 .252 .288 .365 136 507 59 128 21 3 10 50 20 94 7 4
Mike Aviles 3b 26 .246 .284 .365 133 480 53 118 26 2 9 49 25 52 7 5
Kila Kaaihue* 1b 23 .219 .300 .315 137 447 50 98 22 0 7 46 50 103 0 1
Angel Sanchez ss 23 .256 .300 .322 146 571 85 146 25 2 3 43 34 64 5 7
Dee Brown* rf 29 .233 .278 .347 127 429 47 100 18 2 9 47 19 104 7 5
Donnie Murphy 2b 24 .224 .265 .368 97 353 35 79 22 1 9 31 17 64 3 3
Paul Phillips c 30 .241 .279 .335 92 319 34 77 13 1 5 30 16 36 1 2
Andres Blanco# ss 23 .231 .283 .293 124 376 35 87 12 4 1 26 24 50 3 5
Rick Bell 1b 28 .225 .262 .310 114 378 36 85 18 1 4 31 18 70 2 2
Paul Bako* c 35 .201 .265 .224 48 134 9 27 3 0 0 9 11 39 0 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Alex Gordon
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .294 .393 .519 150 530 79 156 42 1 25 87 70 137 21 3
Mean .275 .361 .473 139 491 63 135 35 1 20 72 56 137 15 4
Pessimistic (15%) .247 .323 .412 124 437 47 108 27 0 15 54 43 132 9 4
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Joe Nelson 32 4.35 3 2 54 0 60.0 56 29 6 29 56
Joel Peralta 31 4.50 2 3 56 0 66.0 68 33 9 21 51
Luke Hudson 30 4.57 8 9 31 20 128.0 130 65 13 47 84
Esteban Yan 32 4.70 2 2 51 0 69.0 71 36 9 30 47
Odalis Perez* 30 4.75 7 7 29 24 142.0 159 75 17 36 86
Ryan Braun 26 4.76 4 5 48 0 70.0 72 37 8 35 49
Zack Greinke 23 4.76 8 10 28 27 157.0 175 83 22 42 95
Scott Dohmann 29 5.05 3 3 61 0 66.0 66 37 10 31 63
Todd Wellemeyer 28 5.05 2 4 39 5 73.0 75 41 8 42 53
Luke Hochevar 23 5.09 7 9 22 22 122.0 122 69 17 67 101
Leo Nunez 23 5.14 3 4 52 0 77.0 83 44 11 29 51
Billy Buckner 23 5.16 7 11 29 29 164.0 176 94 19 86 111
Andrew Sisco* 24 5.16 2 3 66 0 68.0 70 39 8 37 59
Denny Tamayo 28 5.17 7 9 25 23 134.0 149 77 22 45 83
Jimmy Gobble* 25 5.17 6 8 43 17 120.0 134 69 18 41 72
Ed Yarnall* 31 5.25 3 5 24 13 84.0 91 49 11 37 58
Mark Redman* 33 5.32 8 13 31 31 176.0 204 104 21 64 92
Ambiorix Burgos 23 5.38 4 5 69 0 72.0 76 43 13 36 71
Brandon Duckworth 31 5.39 6 10 26 20 122.0 138 73 15 48 73
Brian Bass 25 5.40 6 9 21 20 115.0 131 69 14 50 63
Scott Elarton 31 5.41 6 10 27 27 153.0 171 92 26 56 83
Andy van Hekken* 27 5.42 4 7 25 17 103.0 117 62 13 42 56
Jorge de la Rosa* 26 5.55 5 8 32 18 99.0 107 61 13 52 70
Runelvys Hernandez 29 5.69 9 16 31 30 166.0 192 105 22 77 86
Bob Keppel 25 5.84 4 7 21 14 91.0 118 59 13 27 31
Ken Ray 32 5.95 1 2 59 0 56.0 63 37 8 33 32
Barry Armitage 28 6.32 2 5 40 1 74.0 87 52 10 40 44
Juan Cedeno* 23 6.78 3 7 34 10 85.0 96 64 10 77 45
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Zach Greinke
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 4.02 11 10 31 30 177 184 79 21 41 112
Mean 4.76 8 10 28 27 157 175 83 22 42 95
Pessimistic (15%) 5.77 5 10 23 23 128 153 82 24 39 76
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:27 PM | 32 comment(s)
Related News: Kansas City, Projections, ZIPS
Related News: Kansas City, Projections, ZIPS
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Berroa is probably even worse than what you projected him for.
Projecting Greinke is like throwing darts. I have no idea what we should expect out of him. You could say the same thing for Mark Teahen, Andrew Sisco, Ambriorix Burgos, and Luke Hudson.
The potential of a really good lineup, but the pitching is still positively putrid.
Also, I wonder if German is really capable of a .359 OBP? I suppose he'll start the year as a utility, but he could easily work his way into an everyday role.
Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?
I'd be shocked if it wasn't! It was really funny doing the Angels right after the Royals. A 4.35 ERA ranks *12th* on the Angels (behind K-Rod, Weaver, Shields, Carrasco, Escobar, Lackey, Donnelly, Santana, Romero, Gregg, and Bulger).
Odalis Perez is the best projected full-time starter here, at a 4.76 ERA and I have the Angels having a whole rotation plus one better than that (Weaver, Escobar, Lackey, Santana, Saunders and Colon in that order).
Pretty good, especially with the pitchers.
The top nine hitters: Gordon, Shealy, Teahen, Sweeney, Butler, Brown, DeJesus, Huber, German. That's 3B, 1B, 3B (but really, CornerOF/DH), 1B/DH, CornerOF/DH, CornerOF/DH, CF, 1B/CornerOF/DH, 2B.
DeJesus and German aside, that's 2-3 third basemen, 2-3 first basemen, 3-4 corner outfielders, 4-5 designated hitters. Just awesome.
I'm woefully unread in ZiPS -- what work does it base Greinke's projection on? I ask because he's a sample size demon, but his latest work in the minors would indicate that he is probably back to 'normal', if not an itch better. But, of course, that involves very small sample sizes all the way up.
And finally, 32, 31, 30, 32, 30 -- the ages, respectively, of the top five projected pitchers. Hooray.
Yeah, but Moore keeps talking about special players pushing teams' hands. So, he'll probably start at Triple-A, but sometime in 2007 he'll invariably be up.
Pretty good, especially with the pitchers.
Probably. This was a pretty bad team last year and these numbers are based on past performance, correct?
Makes perfect sense, given that #2 on the Royals wasn't considered good enough for the Angels to keep him.
Watching the Royals is sad. I remember the days when they, not Oakland, were our nemesis. But while I despise the A's, I always liked Brett, Saberhagen, White, and the Quis.
And its a result that you probably won't even find anyone arguing against.
Not to beat a dead horse, but the Angels, recently, also didn't consider Jenks & Turnbow 'good enough to keep'. Peralta isn't a bad pitcher.
Ah hell. . . I thought we had a Scott Coolbaugh siting.
Serious good times for Royals fans!
I thought you were going to ask "Any chance the Royals grab the #1 spot in the '08 draft?" Answer: yes.
In 1999 or so, this would have been an exciting trio.
Jeff Keppinger 2b 27 .286 .338 .360 115 419 48 120 17 1 4 35 33 27 3 3
Mark Grudzielanek 2b 37 .288 .327 .382 117 458 64 132 27 2 4 42 25 62 2 2
Not with these pitchers. You need all the gloves you can get.
-- MWE
No, they didn't. They were moved back a few seasons ago; They're at original dimensions right now.
Remember, Allard Baird is gone. I expect Dayton Moore to be very active this off-season. I've been pleased with his moves thus far but this winter will be a test of his skills.
That's a good question. It's probably... NOT a good idea. They've also been blowing money on Jose Mesa and Ray King, so who knows what the hell they're doing?
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