BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2007 ZiPS Projections

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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:46 PM (#2232435)

I think Shealy will hit for more HR power than projected.

Berroa is probably even worse than what you projected him for.

Projecting Greinke is like throwing darts. I have no idea what we should expect out of him. You could say the same thing for Mark Teahen, Andrew Sisco, Ambriorix Burgos, and Luke Hudson.

The potential of a really good lineup, but the pitching is still positively putrid.

2. Kyle S Posted: November 06, 2006 at 08:59 PM (#2232447)

Wow. Highest projected OBP is from a rookie, and it's only .361. Highest projected SLG under .480. Not a lot of reason to be optimistic, imho, except for gordon.

3. Kyle S Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:01 PM (#2232453)

put it this way - check out the other zips projections - do you see any where the highest HR total is 20? yikes.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2232456)

The next time you overhear someone talking about your favorite team and saying "strikeouts are overrated, x team needs to stop worrying about the sex factor of strikeouts and start teaching pitching to contact," make sure to point the Royals to them.

5. Azteca Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:07 PM (#2232457)

The vets #s--Sanders, Grudz & Brown--also look pretty ugly. It's going to take a lot of work to move those guys off the roster.

Also, I wonder if German is really capable of a .359 OBP? I suppose he'll start the year as a utility, but he could easily work his way into an everyday role.

6. bibigon Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:11 PM (#2232462)

Is a 4.35 ERA going to be the worst ERA projected to lead a team?

7. bibigon Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:18 PM (#2232469)

Alex Gordon also has the weakest OPS of any team leader posted so far.

Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

8. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:20 PM (#2232471)

Is a 4.35 ERA going to be the worst ERA projected to lead a team?

I'd be shocked if it wasn't! It was really funny doing the Angels right after the Royals. A 4.35 ERA ranks *12th* on the Angels (behind K-Rod, Weaver, Shields, Carrasco, Escobar, Lackey, Donnelly, Santana, Romero, Gregg, and Bulger).

Odalis Perez is the best projected full-time starter here, at a 4.76 ERA and I have the Angels having a whole rotation plus one better than that (Weaver, Escobar, Lackey, Santana, Saunders and Colon in that order).

9. HowardMegdal

Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#2232473)

Also, isn't the general consensus that Gordon will start next season at AAA?

10. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:24 PM (#2232475)

Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

Pretty good, especially with the pitchers.

11. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:26 PM (#2232477)

I got Gathright for $16 in a 10 team AL only league. I was debating keeping him but a .335 OBP just isn't worth carrying him for the stolen bases. My mind could be changed though. I already have a bunch of wimps on that team in Luis Castillo ($14), Y. Betancourt ($3), Aaron Hill ($5), BJ Upton ($9)..I could pretty much wrap up SB if I kept Gathright though assuming he doesn't get benched.

12. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:32 PM (#2232478)

Thanks for the work, Dan. That's good stuff.

The top nine hitters: Gordon, Shealy, Teahen, Sweeney, Butler, Brown, DeJesus, Huber, German. That's 3B, 1B, 3B (but really, CornerOF/DH), 1B/DH, CornerOF/DH, CornerOF/DH, CF, 1B/CornerOF/DH, 2B.

DeJesus and German aside, that's 2-3 third basemen, 2-3 first basemen, 3-4 corner outfielders, 4-5 designated hitters. Just awesome.

I'm woefully unread in ZiPS -- what work does it base Greinke's projection on? I ask because he's a sample size demon, but his latest work in the minors would indicate that he is probably back to 'normal', if not an itch better. But, of course, that involves very small sample sizes all the way up.

And finally, 32, 31, 30, 32, 30 -- the ages, respectively, of the top five projected pitchers. Hooray.

13. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:35 PM (#2232482)

Also, isn't the general consensus that Gordon will start next season at AAA?

Yeah, but Moore keeps talking about special players pushing teams' hands. So, he'll probably start at Triple-A, but sometime in 2007 he'll invariably be up.

14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2232486)

Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

Pretty good, especially with the pitchers.

Probably. This was a pretty bad team last year and these numbers are based on past performance, correct?

15. AROM Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2232489)

I'd be shocked if it wasn't! It was really funny doing the Angels right after the Royals. A 4.35 ERA ranks *12th* on the Angels

Makes perfect sense, given that #2 on the Royals wasn't considered good enough for the Angels to keep him.

Watching the Royals is sad. I remember the days when they, not Oakland, were our nemesis. But while I despise the A's, I always liked Brett, Saberhagen, White, and the Quis.

16. Juan V is the mustard of your doom! Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:47 PM (#2232494)

The coolest thing to me is, a guy who has zero MLB plate appearances is projected to be their best hitters. Yeah, he is that good, and this team is that bad.

17. AROM Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:53 PM (#2232498)

The coolest thing to me is, a guy who has zero MLB plate appearances is projected to be their best hitters.

And its a result that you probably won't even find anyone arguing against.

18. Azteca Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#2232508)

given that #2 on the Royals wasn't considered good enough for the Angels to keep him

Not to beat a dead horse, but the Angels, recently, also didn't consider Jenks & Turnbow 'good enough to keep'. Peralta isn't a bad pitcher.

19. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:28 PM (#2232517)

I wouldn't really recommend using Derrick Turnbow as a trump card right now. Or as a closer.

20. karkface killah Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:23 AM (#2232633)

Mike Coolbaugh 1b 35 .237 .305 .421 87 304 47 72 17 0 13 46 28 72 2 1

Ah hell. . . I thought we had a Scott Coolbaugh siting.

21. karkface killah Posted: November 07, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#2232637)

Ed Yarnall! Brandon Duckworth! Scott Elarton!

Serious good times for Royals fans!

22. DTS Posted: November 07, 2006 at 08:52 PM (#2233161)

Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

I thought you were going to ask "Any chance the Royals grab the #1 spot in the '08 draft?" Answer: yes.

23. DTS Posted: November 07, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#2233163)

Ed Yarnall! Brandon Duckworth! Scott Elarton!

In 1999 or so, this would have been an exciting trio.

24. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#2233252)

Are you sure these are accurate? The Royals...have a decent young line-up? They are making progress? I never thought I'd see the day.

25. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:45 PM (#2233253)

I think it is time to trade Krudz:

Jeff Keppinger 2b 27 .286 .338 .360 115 419 48 120 17 1 4 35 33 27 3 3
Mark Grudzielanek 2b 37 .288 .327 .382 117 458 64 132 27 2 4 42 25 62 2 2

26. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:48 PM (#2233255)

The top nine hitters: Gordon, Shealy, Teahen, Sweeney, Butler, Brown, DeJesus, Huber, German. That's 3B, 1B, 3B (but really, CornerOF/DH), 1B/DH, CornerOF/DH, CornerOF/DH, CF, 1B/CornerOF/DH, 2B.

DeJesus and German aside, that's 2-3 third basemen, 2-3 first basemen, 3-4 corner outfielders, 4-5 designated hitters. Just awesome.

27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 08, 2006 at 06:27 AM (#2233343)

Did the Royals radically alter the dimensions of their park in 2006 to benefit hitters? If so their hitters really really suck.

28. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 08, 2006 at 06:55 PM (#2233484)

I think it is time to trade Krudz

Not with these pitchers. You need all the gloves you can get.

-- MWE

29. Spute Posted: November 08, 2006 at 08:06 PM (#2233536)

Did the Royals radically alter the dimensions of their park in 2006 to benefit hitters? If so their hitters really really suck.

No, they didn't. They were moved back a few seasons ago; They're at original dimensions right now.

30. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 08:22 PM (#2233545)

Are the Royals smart enough to try to make some deals for what they need-know that they finally don't need everything? I would assume no, but I also didn't expect them to have so many league average hitters.

Remember, Allard Baird is gone. I expect Dayton Moore to be very active this off-season. I've been pleased with his moves thus far but this winter will be a test of his skills.

31. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 08:18 PM (#2234102)

Why are the Rockies hoarding ex-Royal arms? Ascencio, Bautista, Affeldt, Cerda & Field all came out of KC's system, I believe. A few came via trade, but other's of these didn't.

32. Spute Posted: November 10, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#2235001)

Why are the Rockies hoarding ex-Royal arms? Ascencio, Bautista, Affeldt, Cerda & Field all came out of KC's system, I believe. A few came via trade, but other's of these didn't.

That's a good question. It's probably... NOT a good idea. They've also been blowing money on Jose Mesa and Ray King, so who knows what the hell they're doing?

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