Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers


Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
J.D. Drew*               rf  31  .266  .385  .461 126 436  75 116 25  3 18  74  82 101  4  3 
Andre Ethier*            lf  25  .296  .366  .463 155 520  82 154 27  6 16  72  54 103  5  6 
Nomar Garciaparra        1b  33  .288  .354  .469 104 399  64 115 26  2 14  68  35  31  2  0 
Jeff Kent                2b  39  .272  .352  .473 117 427  66 116 28  2 18  77  47  75  2  2 
Matt Kemp                cf  22  .292  .342  .478 150 538  87 157 33  5 19  85  38 116 21  6 
Olmedo Saenz             1b  36  .268  .339  .483  90 205  27  55 14  0 10  42  17  48  0  0 
Rafael Furcal#           ss  29  .286  .358  .431 155 626 109 179 32  7 15  64  72  88 32 11 
Andy LaRoche             3b  23  .274  .349  .443 133 467  63 128 26  1 17  68  52  80  6  4 
Russell Martin           c   24  .279  .359  .432 153 495  80 138 30  2 14  73  60  72 11  7 
James Loney*             1b  23  .297  .351  .434 161 512  68 152 35  4  9  58  42  65  5  5 
Wilson Betemit#          3b  25  .262  .328  .451 136 359  49  94 21  1 15  51  35 101  2  2 
Tydus Meadows            lf  29  .254  .339  .429  92 280  38  71 17  1 10  44  34  74  1  2 
Bill Mueller#            3b  36  .264  .352  .390  93 326  46  86 18  1  7  38  41  49  0  1 
Julio Lugo               ss  31  .283  .348  .393 146 545  82 154 30  3  8  54  51 118 26  8 
Marlon Anderson*         2b  33  .273  .328  .441 120 245  34  67 12  1  9  29  20  44  4  3 
Kenny Lofton*            cf  40  .286  .346  .358  94 332  73  95 11  5  1  38  31  32 17  3 
Jayson Werth             rf  28  .236  .324  .405 110 343  50  81 18  2 12  49  41 112  9  3 
Jason Repko              cf  26  .254  .305  .434 122 350  55  89 22  4 11  41  22  95 14  7 
Craig Brazell*           1b  27  .251  .286  .439 117 403  43 101 23  1 17  68  18  84  1  0 
A.J. Zapp*               1b  29  .234  .304  .380 111 355  36  83 19  0 11  45  33 123  0  0 
Eric Riggs#              3b  30  .246  .319  .361  96 305  25  75 15  1  6  34  30  57  2  2 
Tony Abreu               2b  22  .269  .312  .370 136 513  61 138 26  4  6  50  29  77  7  7 
Delwyn Young#            rf  25  .243  .289  .403 147 531  56 129 32  1 17  68  33 114  2  3 
Brad Cresse              c   28  .234  .290  .394  64 218  25  51 17  0  6  25  15  61  0  0 
Toby Hall                c   31  .258  .302  .366  93 306  22  79 15  0  6  39  14  38  0  1 
Ramon Martinez           2b  34  .259  .322  .331  71 166  16  43  6  0  2  19  15  22  0  0 
Oscar Robles*            3b  31  .242  .313  .308  95 273  29  66 10  1  2  21  28  26  0  3 
Chin-lung Hu             ss  23  .246  .299  .313 136 517  66 127 21  1  4  33  38  58 10  6 
Adam Greenberg*          cf  26  .202  .316  .285 100 277  36  56 11  3  2  18  42  81  6  3 
Wilson Valdez            ss  29  .252  .297  .318 136 481  59 121 19  2  3  33  30  61 19 12 
Blake Dewitt*            3b  21  .224  .273  .330 146 540  47 121 25  1 10  50  35  98  4  5 
Einar Diaz               c   34  .219  .267  .309  60 178  14  39 10  0  2  21  10  20  0  1 
Edwin Bellorin           c   25  .222  .256  .306 104 333  27  74 14  1  4  33  14  61  1  1 

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - James Loney
Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .313  .376  .480 162 517  79 162 40  5 12  71  51  56  7  4
Mean              .297  .351  .434 161 512  68 152 35  4  9  58  42  65  5  5              
Pessimistic (15%) .278  .326  .387 121 385  44 107 23  2  5  34  27  55  2  5

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Eric Gagne                31   2.47   6   2  55   0    62.0   46   17   5   17   80 
Takashi Saito             37   3.10   6   2  75   0    90.0   74   31   7   27   96 
Jonathan Broxton          23   3.32   4   2  75   0    84.0   71   31   8   35   99 
Kelly Wunsch*             34   3.68   1   1  31   0    22.0   19    9   2   12   21 
Derek Lowe                34   3.83  15  10  34  34   214.0  221   91  21   56  123 
Brad Penny                29   3.95  12   8  30  30   180.0  181   79  21   49  129 
Hong-chih Kuo*            25   4.13   6   5  47  10    96.0   87   44   9   47   98 
Greg Maddux               41   4.33  14  13  33  33   206.0  227   99  27   39  118 
Chad Billingsley          22   4.38  10   9  29  28   150.0  146   73  19   75  130 
Franquelis Osoria         25   4.44   6   5  58   0    81.0   86   40   8   28   49 
Brett Tomko               34   4.47  10   9  36  26   165.0  173   82  19   56  105 
Justin Orenduff           24   4.50   6   5  20  19    94.0   90   47  13   45   73 
Eric Stults*              27   4.61  10  10  28  27   158.0  161   81  21   64  114 
Yhency Brazoban           27   4.62   7   8  72   0    78.0   73   40  10   38   66 
Mark Hendrickson*         33   4.79  10  11  30  28   173.0  191   92  20   55  100 
Aaron Sele                37   4.84   8   9  28  22   132.0  150   71  16   42   66 
Greg Miller*              22   4.85   1   2  39   1    52.0   46   28   3   45   43 
Joe Beimel*               30   4.89   2   3  62   0    70.0   79   38  10   28   40 
Elmer Dessens             36   4.93   4   5  51   6    84.0   94   46  11   27   54 
D.J. Houlton              27   4.94   8  10  30  26   153.0  162   84  24   60  114 
Spike Lundberg            30   5.12   6   9  30  16   116.0  130   66  14   46   65 
Tim Hamulack*             30   5.34   3   4  56   0    64.0   64   38   9   37   55 
Justin Reid               30   5.35   4   6  36  13   111.0  119   66  22   46   81 
Jose Diaz                 23   5.48   1   1  16   1    23.0   26   14   2   12   12 
Scott Elbert*             21   5.59   7  11  27  25   132.0  127   82  20   98  115 
William Juarez            26   5.71   4   6  26  13    82.0   88   52  14   48   56 
Luis Gonzalez*            24   6.13   2   5  36   0    47.0   48   32   6   39   35 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Brad Penny
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Optimistic (15%)   3.33  15   7  33  33  203  190   75  21   49  156
Mean               3.95  12   8  30  30  180  181   79  21   49  129
Pessimistic (15%)  4.65   8   9  25  25  147  158   76  21   45  102

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:51 AM | 22 comment(s)
  Related News: LA DodgersProjectionsZIPS

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. a wider scope of derision Posted: November 15, 2006 at 12:21 PM (#2238568)
Loney, Kemp, LaRoche, Martin all 24 or younger and providing .350+ OBP? Logan White for President!

God, it looks like Lugo's going be ridiculously overpaid by some AL East squad. Let's hope it's the Matsuzaka-buying New York Yankees of Boston.
   2. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: November 15, 2006 at 12:26 PM (#2238576)
Namar's OPS leads Loney's by not much (038), but the difference in money will be enormous.
   3. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: November 15, 2006 at 12:29 PM (#2238580)
Kemp's projection looks far too high, considering his wicked collapse after the league got a good look at him.
   4. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: November 15, 2006 at 12:31 PM (#2238584)
Ugh. NOmar.
   5. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: November 15, 2006 at 12:31 PM (#2238585)
Why would the league ERAs be that low?
   6. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: November 15, 2006 at 12:33 PM (#2238588)
That Broxton-Saito-Gagné bullpen looks fun. Like it'll ever happen...
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 01:00 PM (#2238627)
"Kemp's projection looks far too high, considering his wicked collapse after the league got a good look at him."

I think he'll make some adjustments and come back fairly strong. He's got too many tools/skills to stay down for long.
   8. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: November 15, 2006 at 01:06 PM (#2238638)
Derek Lowe is going to end up being a very astute signing.
   9. Kyle S Posted: November 15, 2006 at 01:07 PM (#2238644)
i blame zips for the $11 i spent on gagne in my auction last year ;)
   10. Holliday in Alameda (jonathan) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 01:19 PM (#2238660)
zips not a big fan of jd drew or something?
   11. AROM Posted: November 15, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#2238697)
I'm very underwhelmed by Drew's projection, though I'd still take him over Soriano any day of the week. For the Dodgers he won't be missed if ZIPS is right on Ethier and Kemp.

And Lowe is working out perfectly. I take back any bad things I said about his signing 2 years ago.
   12. The Clarence Thomas of BTF (scott) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:37 PM (#2238872)
Nomah hitting .288? he hasn't hit that low in a full season, EVER.
   13. AROM Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:47 PM (#2238879)
Seems low to me too. Must have something to do with his age.
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:17 PM (#2238905)
Nomar hit .283 in 230AB in 2005.

And .303 last year. And is 33.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:48 PM (#2238933)
He's 33 and slowing down. While the absolute number of a speed score is a fairly meaningless digit, changes in speed score are actually pretty important and Nomar's is dropping in recent years.
   16. Dewitty_Pun Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:48 PM (#2238934)
Nobody projected to hit 20 homers...
   17. RollingWave Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:03 AM (#2239195)
Kuo is likely to do better than that if he stays healthy.
   18. Robert Machemer Posted: November 16, 2006 at 09:42 PM (#2239989)
These numbers are park-adjusted, right? Or are they park-neutral?
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: November 17, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#2240848)
rotoworld

Dodgers announced the retirement of third baseman Bill Mueller.

Mueller, forced to call it quits by a knee injury that wasn't going to get any better, will serve as a special assistant to Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti. This takes his $4.5 million salary off the Dodgers' books, but it seems likely that there's some sort of agreement entitling him to at least a significant portion of what he was due. The 35-year-old Mueller finishes his career with a .291/.373/.425 line, 85 homers and 493 RBI in 11 major league seasons. His best year was 2003, his first year with the Red Sox, when he won the AL batting title and established career highs with a .326 average, 19 homers and 85 RBI. In 2004, he came up with the big hit that drove in Dave Roberts in Game 4 of the ALCS and batted .429 in Boston's World Series victory. Nov. 17 - 8:11 pm et
   20. TOLAXOR Posted: November 19, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#2241670)
THIS IS ONLY A TEST!!!


<img src="http://pic.templetons.com/burnpic/burn2/monolith.jpg" alt="" border="0" />
   21. TOLAXOR Posted: November 19, 2006 at 05:20 PM (#2241672)
NUTS
   22. akrasian Posted: November 25, 2006 at 02:15 AM (#2245406)
This takes his $4.5 million salary off the Dodgers' books,

If only.

He gets every penny. No idea if he gets anything additional for his service as "special assistant" this season, though.
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

We have baseball tickets, the NFL schedule, college football tickets and Cowboys tickets. We have NBA tickets like Celtics tickets and Lakers tickets. Plus, buy Giants tickets, Patriots tickets and Colts tickets. Also check out our MLB baseball schedule

Buy Cheap MLB Tickets

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Page rendered in 0.4592 seconds
62 querie(s) executed