If someone offered to count the pessimistic 15% Ben Sheets projection right now toward the '07 stats on the fantasy teams in which I'm already committed to him, I'd be tempted to accept and not risk a midseason shutdown.

Seems like a real lack of obp for the Brewer offense. The Cubs aren't the only team with this defect?

That's a pretty terrible offense, though they're obviously counting on more from Weeks and Hardy. It's worth noting that Bill Hall is projected to be worse than not just last year but 2005 as well. I'm optimistic about Hall for many reasons, one of which is that over the last two months of the year, he put up a .269/.383/.522 line--have to walk before you can crawl.

On the flip side, Sheets/Capuano/Bush looks to be a hell of a 1-3, especially if Capuano doesn't lose the ground on his BB rate that ZiPS projects him to (47 in 221.3 innings last year).

Do ZiPS take quality of offense into account when projecting RBIs? I ask due to the low ratio of RBI/TB that Doughnut Jr. has.

I have a feeling that Mr. Wallbangers will have a thing or two to say about that Hall projection.

Ben Sheets - best pitcher in baseball? Yes, I know he has to put up a healthy season first, but the potential. Wow.

Bill Hall > J.J. Hardy

I was shocked this last year when Prince Fielder stole 7 bases. He must be some kind of athlete.

Are they really going to move Hall to the outfield? That is an enormous waste of resources. Moving a league average (or slightly better) defensive shortsop to left field-assuming he is an avg. fielder in left-is a waste of over 20 runs.

Seems like a real lack of obp for the Brewer offense. The Cubs aren't the only team with this defect?

The Brewers have an excuse: $. Most of the Brewers starters are near league avg. at the position, thou. Just no player with a really big #.

DC:

Bill Hall has been proving the "experts" wrong for several years now, particularly the mouthy, dismissive ones at that "other" baseball website.

I am confident that given good health Bill will easily exceed that projection.

Alas, I have grave doubts about the rest of the offense. I think Mr. Melvin has done a pretty bad job in the last six months of leveraging his available resources and Milwaukee's opportunity to be a "player" in the NL may already be lost.

Overly negative? No. Just a recognition that given the current climate an organization like Milwaukee is afforded few mistakes. And I think Doug has two serious gaffes with the Lee and Davis trade respectively. Not in trading THOSE guys. But in each case tossing in a talented younger player seemingly just the h*ll of it.

Trading Cruz for Mench was dumb.

Sending Arizona not one but TWO left-handed pitchers with ability was STUPID. Dana Eveland will pitch regularly in the big leagues. And all the Yovani Gallardos in the world won't change the fact that the team could have had BOTH guys in their rotation.

Sigh......

Ben Sheets - best pitcher in baseball? Yes, I know he has to put up a healthy season first, but the potential. Wow.

Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess. By a decent amount too. As good as Santana is, he just doesn't have Sheets' control.

Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess.

What?!? You're crazy.

Sheets pitched 237 IP with a 154 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP, and 25 HR, or 0.95 per 9.

Johan:

2004: 228 IP, 182 ERA+, 0.92 WHIP and 0.95 HR/9 in a DH league.
2005: 231.2 IP, 153 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP and 0.85 HR/9 in a DH league.
2006: 233.2 IP, 161 ERA+, 0.997 WHIP and 0.92 HR/9 in a DH league.

Think I'd take Johan or a healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets.

I agree with post 4 on Prince. 87 RBI seems paltry with 152 hits and 30 HR. Only 57 excess RBI on the 152 hits? They've taken all the baserunners!

Wee Fielder is probably going to kill those BB numbers.

And as a Jay fan, I see that Bush line and swear. I never bought into him.

Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess.

I wouldn't go that far, but I'd say Sheets at his best is a top 5 pitcher in baseball. The guy singlehandedly brought me to the final series of the fantasy playoffs in 2004, and I've always had a softspot for him.

He's an injury risk, but he finished 2006 pretty strongly. That optimistic projection above might be a little much, particularly the 2.28 ERA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that mean performance or a tad better over 200+ innings in 2007.

Bush's peripherals were stunning last year: 7.4 k/game; 1.7 walks per game; 1.16 homers per game. If his LOB% goes from 67 percent (last year) up to 75 percent (he was at 71 percent the previous two years), with those other peripherals, I think he and Sheets could be the ideal 1 and 2 starters, counter-respectively.

a healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets.

A healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets? I don't buy it. The only edge Halladay has over Sheets is his durability.

Wee Fielder is probably going to kill those BB numbers.

I've been beating that drum for awhile.

Where's the Oracle on the Counsell signing?

Craig Counsell Prediction

A healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets? I don't buy it. The only edge Halladay has over Sheets is his durability.

It's a huge edge at this point. 2004 is the only full season Sheets has had as a standout performer. Halladay's 2002, 2003, and 2006 all compare favourably to that season. Halladay's 2005 was clearly a notch better in terms of rates, and was shortened by a fluke injury rather than something that would make you doubt his durability.

Bush's projection surprises me positively. And I think Ben Sheets is a phenomenal pitcher when healthy, but is ZIPs seriously saying that he has a 15% chance to go 19-4 with a 2.28 ERA? Wow!!

Here's a fun list. Every pitcher in major league history, minimum 50 innings, that had a K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.

Ben Sheets, 2006.

K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.

[PRE]

Pitcher Year
Ben Sheets 2006
[/PRE]

[whistles...]

He becomes free after 2008 right?

Here's a fun list. Every pitcher in major league history, minimum 50 innings, that had a K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.

Man, Eckersley came damn close every year from 87 through 92...especially 1990.

Every pitcher in major league history, minimum 50 innings, that had a K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.

Curt Schilling 2002

He also came really close in 2001 (needed 5 fewer walks)

33 walks in 259.1 IP is more than 1 BB/9 IP.

I assumed Dan meant BB rate of less than 1 per start. Didn't realize he meant 1 per 9 IP.

When I first saw Sheets' 11 walks, I thought that there was an error somewhere.

He didn't strike out enough, but I always enjoy looking up Maddux's stats.

'95 - 210 IP, 23BB
'97 - 233 IP, 20 BB (!)
'01 - 233, 27 BB

Ben Sheets is a special pitcher. Too bad many can't look past his mediocre career win/loss record and recent injury troubles to recognize that.

God bless Ben Sheets.

He's one of those guys out there with a fastball that can get you out, there are too few of those nowadays, and then when he drops that curve on you you can't do #### aobut it.

Last years numbers were SICK too. If he pitched 200 innings with those kind of numbers, he'd have been better than Santana.

Too bad he didn't. Stay healthy Ben, do what everyone here knows you can do.

BTW - Doug Melvin right now, besides for the Estrade trade, is one of the most underrated GMs in baseball.

Pedro Martinez's 1993: 65 games and only 57 walks, 119 strikeouts in only 109 innings.

But (as I see elsewhere in the thread) if you meant less than a walk per nine innings, well, you're almost certainly right. Less than a walk per nine innings is rare for a strikeout pitcher (to say the least).

John Smoltz came close in 2003 -- he walked one batter too many (and, as it happens, he had exactly one intentional walk that year...)

HW:

Just thought I'd give you a heads up that your favorite minor leaguer, Charlie Fermaint, may be defensively challenged.

And as a Jay fan, I see that Bush line and swear. I never bought into him.

You know, it's funny you say that. I have a good story about the David Bush trade.

Last year, I was at a University of Florida baseball game (the game against Missouri, where we got dominated by Max Scherzer and the season went drastically downhill) and I met some MLB scouts, one from Pittsburgh, another from Toronto, the last was from somewhere I don't remember (wanna say LA) along with an apparently really high ranking Red Sox official that I didn't recognize (Jed something?). Anyways, I started talking to the Jays scout about their organization, and I mentioned that I really didn't like the trade, that I thought Gabe Gross was a solid 4th outfielder but more importantly that I thought giving up David Bush was silly considering he was a cheap, young fourth starter with the potential to be a solid number two guy, and that I really thought giving up Zach Jackson was a bad idea. The Pirates scout turned to me and said, "You think so? This guy was bragging to us for the past two or three years about how much he liked Jackson and how good he was going to be." Then the Jays scout tells me, "Yeah, I hate to give up Jackson, but I'm not that mad about Bush. He's ok, but we needed Overbay." I told him that I really felt that Bush alone would make the trade come back to haunt them, and that if Jackson ever became anything it would look that much worse. So the moral of the story is that I should be a major league scout.

The best part of this conversation was when me and the Pirates scout made fun of the Jays farm system together. He looked kinda steamed.

Jed Hoyer is in the Sox FO.

Agreeing with a Pirate scout about something would make me a little queasy, though :)

And that was a baaad trade. Trading the scarcest commodity in baseball--average or better starting pitching--for the least scarce--a first baseman with on-base skills but mediocre power--can't be good.

I'm a Jays fan, and I'm gonna stay pissed at Milwuakee because they absolutely fleeced us on a few trades. The Overbay trade and Koskie trade both really ticked me off, and then the TJ Ford for Charlie Villenuava for TJ Ford trade, I mean c'mon, what's going on here? It's ironic that all the major holes we had (2b, SP, 4th OF), are the ones that left in the Overbay trade, and all that came in was one of another 4 corner infielders. THe Brewers seem like a young, cheap team that seems pretty solid to me.

oops, make that one TJ Ford.

Just adding to the Ben Sheets gushing. His 2004 was so sick. 10.03 K/9 and 1.22 BB/9 (8.25 K/BB), wow.

I'll never forget when Johnny Estrada, who was the last batter Sheets faced in the 18 K game, was doing anything he could to get thrown out, in lieu of being the last batter to strike out. Doug Eddings was behind the plate and he was just looking straight ahead, turning a deaf ear to Estrada. And like it was pre-determined, Sheets made him look foolish on the last pitch of the game for strikeout 18.