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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Prince Fielder* 1b 23 .280 .358 .513 159 542 83 152 34 1 30 87 58 113 5 3
Bill Hall ss 27 .268 .334 .496 147 512 82 137 37 4 24 72 52 145 11 6
Kevin Mench rf 29 .272 .330 .464 132 474 58 129 28 3 19 67 36 92 1 1
Rickie Weeks 2b 24 .262 .343 .433 131 485 90 127 23 6 16 59 48 120 20 4
Geoff Jenkins* lf 32 .260 .338 .434 133 477 63 124 28 2 17 64 44 130 1 0
Corey Koskie* 3b 34 .246 .340 .431 84 297 39 73 19 0 12 36 37 69 2 1
Gabe Gross* rf 27 .266 .348 .411 142 418 65 111 27 2 10 51 51 100 7 2
Corey Hart rf 25 .263 .333 .462 132 463 76 122 29 6 17 62 46 99 19 11
Ryan Braun 3b 23 .262 .321 .440 117 427 45 112 27 2 15 57 33 101 16 5
Brady Clark cf 34 .272 .364 .361 109 368 51 100 16 1 5 29 37 50 5 5
Johnny Estrada# c 31 .277 .323 .404 116 401 40 111 27 0 8 49 22 49 0 0
David Bell 3b 34 .266 .336 .389 126 455 51 121 24 1 10 53 45 60 1 1
Tony Graffanino 2b 35 .256 .338 .372 96 347 50 89 21 2 5 35 36 97 4 2
J.J. Hardy ss 24 .248 .326 .392 92 286 36 71 18 1 7 38 33 37 0 0
Jeff Cirillo 3b 37 .277 .338 .369 81 195 25 54 12 0 2 17 16 26 1 2
J.D. Closser# c 27 .243 .321 .374 106 329 35 80 17 1 8 35 36 62 3 1
Laynce Nix* cf 26 .249 .298 .411 116 370 40 92 17 2 13 54 21 121 2 1
Damian Miller c 37 .247 .319 .369 87 295 31 73 21 0 5 32 28 74 0 1
Drew Anderson* lf 26 .263 .314 .380 138 482 65 127 27 4 7 46 33 103 12 7
Vinny Rottino 3b 27 .265 .321 .363 127 427 48 113 20 2 6 35 33 79 4 4
Brad Nelson* 1b 24 .226 .317 .362 140 469 62 106 26 1 12 60 61 113 8 5
Michael Rivera c 30 .243 .288 .408 78 255 25 62 12 0 10 38 15 49 2 1
Brent Abernathy 2b 29 .258 .313 .337 108 365 47 94 14 0 5 32 29 46 13 8
Mark L. Johnson* c 31 .223 .306 .326 62 184 19 41 10 0 3 18 20 29 2 1
Chris Barnwell ss 28 .244 .307 .325 121 385 37 94 17 1 4 30 30 63 11 4
Anthony Gwynn* cf 24 .246 .310 .320 154 553 75 136 24 4 3 37 50 104 26 14
Callix Crabbe# 2b 24 .232 .320 .307 137 462 45 107 21 1 4 35 57 67 15 10
Hernan Iribarren* 2b 33 .253 .308 .321 132 455 53 115 13 3 4 38 36 75 18 14
Jermaine Clark* 2b 30 .215 .301 .295 97 298 40 64 10 1 4 25 35 55 12 6
Alcides Escobar ss 20 .219 .249 .282 106 401 50 88 15 2 2 23 14 71 19 9
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Prince Fielder
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .303 .392 .575 162 551 96 167 40 1 36 109 69 103 7 2
Mean .280 .358 .513 159 542 83 152 34 1 30 87 58 113 5 3
Pessimistic (15%) .262 .331 .456 132 450 60 118 24 0 21 59 41 103 3 4
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Ben Sheets 28 2.88 14 6 26 26 172.0 152 55 19 24 174
Francisco Cordero 32 3.33 7 3 72 0 73.0 61 27 5 31 77
Matt Wise 31 3.51 5 3 43 1 59.0 54 23 6 20 42
David Bush 27 3.79 13 9 33 32 202.0 198 85 23 43 146
Chris Capuano* 28 4.11 13 11 32 32 206.0 207 94 28 59 154
Jose Capellan 26 4.16 5 4 47 9 93.0 89 43 9 40 69
Rick Helling 36 4.26 6 6 30 20 133.0 130 63 16 49 86
Grant Balfour 29 4.34 1 2 25 0 29.0 25 14 3 16 32
Brian Shouse* 38 4.40 1 2 64 0 47.0 46 23 5 20 32
Chris Demaria 26 4.50 3 3 57 0 76.0 77 38 12 25 61
Tomo Ohka 31 4.53 6 8 25 23 137.0 145 69 19 43 74
Carlos Villanueva 23 4.59 8 9 29 24 157.0 159 80 25 54 115
Danny Kolb 32 4.67 3 3 60 0 54.0 58 28 5 23 30
Yovani Gallardo 21 4.80 7 8 26 24 148.0 150 79 19 66 111
Manny Parra* 24 4.82 4 5 19 18 97.0 101 52 11 42 65
Greg Aquino 29 4.98 2 2 49 0 56.0 52 31 7 28 53
Claudio Vargas 29 5.03 8 11 32 26 154.0 159 86 26 53 122
Chris Spurling 30 5.04 3 4 66 0 84.0 91 47 12 24 38
Chris Saenz 25 5.11 5 6 13 13 81.0 84 46 18 30 76
Derrick Turnbow 29 5.12 4 6 61 1 65.0 60 37 9 41 58
Ben Hendrickson 26 5.13 7 12 28 27 156.0 169 89 22 64 93
Zach Jackson* 24 5.15 8 11 27 26 159.0 177 91 21 62 86
Justin Lehr 29 5.16 5 9 44 13 122.0 134 70 19 46 79
Travis Phelps 29 5.23 5 7 36 8 93.0 96 54 15 43 68
Jared Fernandez 35 5.41 5 9 29 21 153.0 179 92 25 47 68
Alec Zumwalt 26 5.68 2 4 45 0 65.0 69 41 11 36 48
Vince Perkins 24 5.73 3 6 18 17 99.0 118 63 13 46 60
Joe Valentine 27 6.04 3 6 48 4 67.0 67 45 10 46 55
Jeff Housman* 25 6.35 4 9 24 20 112.0 124 79 24 57 80
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Ben Sheets
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.28 19 4 28 28 193 156 49 17 24 208
Mean 2.88 14 6 26 26 172 152 55 19 24 174
Pessimistic (15%) 3.47 11 6 21 21 140 133 54 19 23 138
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
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On the flip side, Sheets/Capuano/Bush looks to be a hell of a 1-3, especially if Capuano doesn't lose the ground on his BB rate that ZiPS projects him to (47 in 221.3 innings last year).
I was shocked this last year when Prince Fielder stole 7 bases. He must be some kind of athlete.
Bill Hall has been proving the "experts" wrong for several years now, particularly the mouthy, dismissive ones at that "other" baseball website.
I am confident that given good health Bill will easily exceed that projection.
Alas, I have grave doubts about the rest of the offense. I think Mr. Melvin has done a pretty bad job in the last six months of leveraging his available resources and Milwaukee's opportunity to be a "player" in the NL may already be lost.
Overly negative? No. Just a recognition that given the current climate an organization like Milwaukee is afforded few mistakes. And I think Doug has two serious gaffes with the Lee and Davis trade respectively. Not in trading THOSE guys. But in each case tossing in a talented younger player seemingly just the h*ll of it.
Trading Cruz for Mench was dumb.
Sending Arizona not one but TWO left-handed pitchers with ability was STUPID. Dana Eveland will pitch regularly in the big leagues. And all the Yovani Gallardos in the world won't change the fact that the team could have had BOTH guys in their rotation.
Sigh......
Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess. By a decent amount too. As good as Santana is, he just doesn't have Sheets' control.
What?!? You're crazy.
Sheets pitched 237 IP with a 154 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP, and 25 HR, or 0.95 per 9.
Johan:
2004: 228 IP, 182 ERA+, 0.92 WHIP and 0.95 HR/9 in a DH league.
2005: 231.2 IP, 153 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP and 0.85 HR/9 in a DH league.
2006: 233.2 IP, 161 ERA+, 0.997 WHIP and 0.92 HR/9 in a DH league.
And as a Jay fan, I see that Bush line and swear. I never bought into him.
I wouldn't go that far, but I'd say Sheets at his best is a top 5 pitcher in baseball. The guy singlehandedly brought me to the final series of the fantasy playoffs in 2004, and I've always had a softspot for him.
He's an injury risk, but he finished 2006 pretty strongly. That optimistic projection above might be a little much, particularly the 2.28 ERA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that mean performance or a tad better over 200+ innings in 2007.
A healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets? I don't buy it. The only edge Halladay has over Sheets is his durability.
I've been beating that drum for awhile.
Where's the Oracle on the Counsell signing?
It's a huge edge at this point. 2004 is the only full season Sheets has had as a standout performer. Halladay's 2002, 2003, and 2006 all compare favourably to that season. Halladay's 2005 was clearly a notch better in terms of rates, and was shortened by a fluke injury rather than something that would make you doubt his durability.
Ben Sheets, 2006.
[PRE]
Pitcher Year
Ben Sheets 2006
[/PRE]
[whistles...]
He becomes free after 2008 right?
Man, Eckersley came damn close every year from 87 through 92...especially 1990.
Curt Schilling 2002
He also came really close in 2001 (needed 5 fewer walks)
He didn't strike out enough, but I always enjoy looking up Maddux's stats.
'95 - 210 IP, 23BB
'97 - 233 IP, 20 BB (!)
'01 - 233, 27 BB
He's one of those guys out there with a fastball that can get you out, there are too few of those nowadays, and then when he drops that curve on you you can't do #### aobut it.
Last years numbers were SICK too. If he pitched 200 innings with those kind of numbers, he'd have been better than Santana.
Too bad he didn't. Stay healthy Ben, do what everyone here knows you can do.
BTW - Doug Melvin right now, besides for the Estrade trade, is one of the most underrated GMs in baseball.
But (as I see elsewhere in the thread) if you meant less than a walk per nine innings, well, you're almost certainly right. Less than a walk per nine innings is rare for a strikeout pitcher (to say the least).
Just thought I'd give you a heads up that your favorite minor leaguer, Charlie Fermaint, may be defensively challenged.
You know, it's funny you say that. I have a good story about the David Bush trade.
Last year, I was at a University of Florida baseball game (the game against Missouri, where we got dominated by Max Scherzer and the season went drastically downhill) and I met some MLB scouts, one from Pittsburgh, another from Toronto, the last was from somewhere I don't remember (wanna say LA) along with an apparently really high ranking Red Sox official that I didn't recognize (Jed something?). Anyways, I started talking to the Jays scout about their organization, and I mentioned that I really didn't like the trade, that I thought Gabe Gross was a solid 4th outfielder but more importantly that I thought giving up David Bush was silly considering he was a cheap, young fourth starter with the potential to be a solid number two guy, and that I really thought giving up Zach Jackson was a bad idea. The Pirates scout turned to me and said, "You think so? This guy was bragging to us for the past two or three years about how much he liked Jackson and how good he was going to be." Then the Jays scout tells me, "Yeah, I hate to give up Jackson, but I'm not that mad about Bush. He's ok, but we needed Overbay." I told him that I really felt that Bush alone would make the trade come back to haunt them, and that if Jackson ever became anything it would look that much worse. So the moral of the story is that I should be a major league scout.
The best part of this conversation was when me and the Pirates scout made fun of the Jays farm system together. He looked kinda steamed.
Agreeing with a Pirate scout about something would make me a little queasy, though :)
And that was a baaad trade. Trading the scarcest commodity in baseball--average or better starting pitching--for the least scarce--a first baseman with on-base skills but mediocre power--can't be good.
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