Nothing new here to see. Offense is pretty ugly after Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer. Johan plus 4 average starters and a killer bullpen. I'm surprised to see ZiPS like Baker still after his poor season in the majors last year, although good AAA season.

How about adding Jeff Cirillo,Ken Harvey, Carmen Cali and Mike Venafro or just do a Transaction Oracle projection for them?

I'll take the over on Garza, and the under on Bonser.

Kubel's projection is pretty interesting, IMO, especially since he missed a year. Dan, How did you account for that in ZIPS?

I'll take the over on Garza, and the under on Bonser.

Under on Liriano games started. Oh, I'm going to hell.

How about adding Jeff Cirillo,Ken Harvey, Carmen Cali and Mike Venafro or just do a Transaction Oracle projection for them?

Got it.

So far, Dan has posted projections for 17 teams. Only 3 players are projected to hit no home runs. 2 of the are catchers projected to less than 200 ABs. The other is Jason Tyner, projected to 500 ABs. I still don't understand why the Mets decided he was worth a first round pick.

I still don't understand why the Mets decided he was worth a first round pick.

An eternal fascination with HS CFs who could run fast

In what order are the team ZiPS projections done, out of curiosity? Alphabetical? I haven't really paid attention.

The other is Jason Tyner, projected to 500 ABs.

Tyner totally blew the streak he had working in 2006. If he just hit 1 home run, he would have hit more than 0 home runs for 3 consecutive professional seasons. When Tyner hit his home run for the Richmond Braves in 2004, it was his first since his senior year of high school (1994).

Dan,

If there was ever a time to do a premature TO, Matsuzaka is it! Yeah, baby. You might as well throw in Clemens, since he's next. Right? Right? Please?

I don't get how Kevin West projects to hit better in the majors next year than he did in the minors this year. Any theories?

I thought the Kubel and West projections were both really strange too. Not only do their projections seem high based on what they did last year, but the projections for both are both higher now than their ZIPS projections last offseason, despite having disappointing years in between. I guess managing to age a year in 365 days is a better indicator of success than actual success is. :)

Actually with West, perhaps ZIPs is projecting him to be used more in a platoon role this year, which would accentuate his positives. Kubel might just be just young enough that he projects as being talented and his relatively few ABs in the past 2 years haven't overwhelmed his success from before.

I'll double-check West and Kubel.

"An eternal fascination with HS CFs who could run fast"

Sigh, If youre going to rail against some perceived wrong (like toolsy HSers and the teams who love em) for no good reason (that is railing against drafting toolsy HSers, railing against drafting Tyner is ok i guess) at least get the facts right. Tyner was a college guy from Texas A&M]

Harben, FYI, hasnt been a Twin since August or so. He went to the Cubs for Nevin and now hes not even a Cub after the Cubs nontendered him to free up a 40man spot

And yeah I dont get the West thing either except that Zips always seems to have a couple random minor leaguers projected to do a little (or a lot) too well as rookies

OK, tracked down the problems. The Kevin West projection was actually his optimistic projection.

The Kubel one was more of a puzzler - the projection for 2007 was right. So I checked the projection for 2006 and it was last year's projection that was wrong. I couldn't figure out how it was oddly wrong until it dawned on me - his missing season had messed me up when I cut and pasted and his 2006 projection included a Dave Krynzel line. All-in-all, ZiPS has loved Kubel for awhile based on his pre-2005 years.


And yeah I dont get the West thing either except that Zips always seems to have a couple random minor leaguers projected to do a little (or a lot) too well as rookies

Some seem to think so, but I also check error bars by age group and I'm not missing on rookies any more than players in their prime or older players.

While there are very few league-average players kicking around in the minors, there still are a lot of replacement-level ones. Professional baseball players are the far right of the baseball talent curve and every step down increases by scads the amount of players that have that much ability. 315/465 leftfielders that aren't very good defensively are a dime a dozen - if you're not getting a lot of people of that ability level, you're probably doing something wrong.

315/465 leftfielders that aren't very good defensively are a dime a dozen - if you're not getting a lot of people of that ability level, you're probably doing something wrong.

What about third basemen? The Twins sure have some doozies. Cirillo seemed like a pretty big upgrade, but based on his Milwaukee projection, he might not be much better than what they've got otherwise.

Looks like another MVP for Morneau!

Craig,

Cirillo's no world-beater, but I think he stands the best chance of that group to actually meet or exceed his projection. Glenn Williams barely hit that projection in AAA last year. Furthermore, Casilla and Machado aren't 3B and have never even played the position in the minor leagues, and Moses is hardly an option entering 2007 after hitting .249/.303/.386 with poor defense at AA.

Hopefully Punto can carry over some of his 2006 success, but in any case, the Twins needed a reliable backup plan, as well as a backup 1B (preferably RH) and a veteran bat off the bench. Cirillo's fine for that role, and his salary is a drop in the bucket, even for the Twins.

I agree with all of that. It's just that I expected a little rosier projection for Cirillo. As for the other guys, I was casting a wide net, as it seems like mostly a matter of desperation. There doesn't seem to be much difference between the best and worst of them, and they seem to be testing the concept of replacement-level. Is there any team with a worse 3b situation? One cheap vet who projects to fall off a cliff, 5 middle infielders/utility guys who could player there and hit terribly, and a touted prospect who's terrible at AA?

I couldn't figure out how it was oddly wrong until it dawned on me - his missing season had messed me up when I cut and pasted and his 2006 projection included a Dave Krynzel line.

And people say that Krynzel will never contribute!

I'll take the over on:

Mauer's OBP
Cuddyer's HR
Hunter's HR
Punto's OBP
Casilla's AVG
Neshek's ERA
Perkins
Barrett

I'll take the under on:

Ford
West
Stewart
Span
G. Jones's HR

And, Boof Bonser WILL be better in 2007 than his ZIPS show. He's added a spike curve that is really going to be a difference maker for him, just like it was in the final 2 months.

Bonser

Pre-Break (pre-spike curve) 6.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9
Post-Break (post-spike curve) 7.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9

Thanks again, Brian Sabean!

I mean to say that I think Perkins, Neshek, and Barrett will be better than you give them credit for... sorry for any confusion.

Bartlett?

Dan, do you have spotlights for the Twins' real MVPs, Mauer and Santana? I'd love to see what ZiPS sees as their upsides and downsides.

Didn't some of these guys use to pitch for the Giants? Ahhhh remind me who the Giant's traded for Pierzynski? Heh heh.


Nice table formatting Craig in MN! Everyone please take notes.

It took an incredible effort, in that I had to actually move my mouse and press the "code" button. But considering all the typos I normally make, I'll gladly take credit for doing something right in a post.


In other Twins moves, ESPN is reporting that the Twins resigned Rondell White for $2.75 million. I suspect he'll be healthier and provide decent results, but coming off a terrible year overall, and with no real competition for his services, that seems a bit high.

Upon further review, this seems really strange. From Cot's Contracts, about White's contract last year:

# 06:$2.5M, 07: vesting option ($0.75M buyout)
# 2007 option increases based on Plate Appearances:
* vests at $3M with 400 PAs in 2006

It looks to me that the Twins bought out his $3 million option for $.75 million and then negotiated to pay him $2.75 million instead, with performance clauses that could add a few hundred thousand more. Math might not be my strong suit, but it seems to me that adds up to more than $3 million. Even if I am wrong about them having to buy him out after last season, he'd only have to get 450 PAs in 2007 to earn enough incentives make that $3 million. Sure, the Twins also got a $3.5 million option for the following year out of the deal, but paying him more this year for a chance to pay him less next year doesn't seem like necessarily smart negotiating.

And again, who else was competing for his services?