User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets. |
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
Page rendered in 1.8638 seconds
38 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
I really hope Brett Harper can stay healthy this year. I want to see what his power potential could be.
I'd take that Milledge Projection right now and run to the vault. If he can put up a .350+ OBP in his age 22 year, that fixes our #2 hole.
who the hell is brett harper?
Oliver Perez' 2004 must still be in there. I think Mets fans would take that mean performance in a heartbeat.
Aside from Beltran, whose?
Aside from Beltran, whose?
Not Milledge, that's for sure. I'm with Rasky -- I'd take that projection in a second. Wow.
LoDuca may be slightly on the pessimistic side, coming off .355/.428, but what do you expect for a catcher his age? 2006 was his best year in a long time, and he'll be 35 in 2007.
That is, I will say, a pretty serious hit in Delgado's slugging -- but I certainly wouldn't be shocked if ZiPS is onto something in his case and he slipped below .500.
Why should Wright be worse than last year? The projection for Valentin is a complete collapse. Only once has he had an ob% under .300 and only once has had a slugging% that low. Delgado slugging under .500? That hasn't happened since 1996. Also, his ob% was only that low last year. I don't see how it is projected to bounce back. Reyes and Lo Duca both seem a little pessimistic.
It's really hard to have Oliver's K rate and pitch as badly as he has the last 2 years- something has to give.
One thing I'd bet on- nio way does he come close to that projection- he eitehr does a lot better or a lot (and I mean a lot) worse. Unfortunately I think an ERA of 5.50+ is more likely than that projection.
Wright is essentially the same as last year. And the same as he was in 2005. Young Man River, he just keeps rolling along.
Projecting Valentin to collapse is not exactly an unreasonable thing to anticipate. He's old, he strikes out a lot, and players like him often go fast when they go.
How is Reyes pessimistic? It sees him consolidating most of the gains he made last year. That is quite optimistic, IMO.
LoDuca is a catcher in his mid-30s. Any projection system worth a damn is going to see some air going out of his tires.
Because the projection is a mean of everything ZiPS reasonably thinks Wright could do. I'm sure the optimistic projection is more along the lines of what you're "expecting".
And I'm not sure it is saying he'll be worse. He loses ten points of batting average but keeps the same OBP and IsoPwr.
What would your response have been to the question "in 2007, who will be the better player, Alfonzo or Franco?"
Funny stuff.
Someone who shouldn't have a projection that high - I think I pulled a repeat of Kevin West and did the optimistic projection.
Players who will beat their projections: Valentin, Reyes, Delgado (BA especially), O. Perez.
Sadly, Pedro will not.
I'm surprised that Delgado doesn't project better than Alou. His "peripheral" stats were better in 2006 stats than his 2005 season as his BABIP was the only difference and he's a lot younger.
Thanks for this Dan.
Basically, Reyes has a 15% chance of being a serious MVP candidate?
The bullpen probably won't be as good as it was last year. The key is for the starting pitcher to perform better.
If he puts up that line -- almost 80 XBHs, 140 Runs and 104 RBI's -- I think he IS the MVP.
Michael Tucker* 0.062
Moises Alou 0.049
Paul Lo Duca 0.043
Jose Reyes# 0.039
Ramon Castro 0.038
Chris Woodward0.03
Edgardo Alfonzo 0.027
Julio Franco 0.021
Anderson Hernandez# 0.021
Virtually the same on Belran and Wright. Big differences on Alou, Lo Duca and Reyes.
But, what an effective base-stealer Beltran has been. 227-32 for his career. Tim Raines was 585-90 through age 29, and Eric Davis was 247-37.
Just to add to this, I remember reading an article last year where Beltran said he didn't think he'd hit .300 in a season again. He's changed his approach to hit for more power. That said, his projection is pretty low, obviously skewed by his mediocre 2005 season.
Alternatively, his projection is pretty high, obviously skewed by his amazing 2006 season.
2005 and 2006 were about equally out of the norm for Beltran.
By the time the Mets move, I suspect Beltran's not going to be the player he was (or is now). Centerfielders don't last like others do.
Yeah, but the reason Beltran's 2005 season was out of the norm for him was because he played with an injury. If you look at the trend in recent years, it's pretty clear that 2006 is more in line than his 2005 season.
Bibigon, why do you hate the Mets so? The 86 world series was 20 years ago. Let it go.
By the time the Mets move, I suspect Beltran's not going to be the player he was (or is now). Centerfielders don't last like others do.
I wonder if the architects of Citi-field will/can account for the air-currents which seem to be a major part of Shea's offense depressing effects. Those winds have knocked down some "sure home runs" over the years.
The one that leaps to mind was the Cliff Floyd fly-out in the Glavine Dodgers playoff game last October. After Wright flew out to deep right, Floyd came up. Absolutely crushed the ball. The announcer went - "And there's no way this one staying in the park!!" JD Drew was running back, looks up, and catches the ball on the warning track. Floyd looked stunned that the ball didn't carry out of the park.
I love the Mets - really. I root for them more than any team other than the Sox. I root for any team whose success causes Yankee fans to squirm, plus some of my best friends are Mets fans.
I'm just a pessimist. I'm like this for the Red Sox too.
And since when is CitiField projected to be a hitters park?
I'm curious - why would you want less of a pitcher's park? Low offense parks would seem to represent an advantage over high offense parks, by virtue of causing systemically lower pitch counts for your pitchers.
Yeah, but the reason Beltran's 2005 season was out of the norm for him was because he played with an injury. If you look at the trend in recent years, it's pretty clear that 2006 is more in line than his 2005 season.
Also, Beltran's September should carry a bit of an asterisk. He was hurt from the game-saving catch in Houston. He was really playing well at the time. The injury knocked him out for a while, and Beltran was noticeably hobbled and rusty for while when he came back.
I don't buy that. Injuries like that happen all the time and the ability to perform with some nagging injuries is something a player has to do.
Years of arguing why Piazza was in a different league as a hitting catcher when compared with Pudge - in those days they were both at their hitting peaks. But Piazza lost so much to Shea, I swore it was the worst possible design of a park for him.
Injuries like that do not happen all the time. If you want to argue about Beltran's knees, that's fine. But that injury was the result of a remarkable event.
You sure have a funny way of showing it. Let's trade Milledge and Pelfrey for Dontrelle Willis! or someone else I've heard of, every other week. Your love is going to suffocate the Mets.
To be fair to Bibigon, while that's not a trade that Met brass would make, it's not a Victor Zambrano-Kazmir deal either.
As I've reiterated many times - I've never proposed trading Milledge and Pelfrey for Willis, nor would I.
I have said I find it plausible that Minaya would make such a trade. There's a difference between predicting a trade, and prescribing it.
Omar wouldn't do that. Omar might do it for a genuine elite pitcher -- a Carlos Zambrano-caliber pitcher. He'd trade ONE elite prospect, and some filler, for a Willis. Omar knows the difference. He values a Dontrelle Willis, but he knows the difference.
It depends on whether any of the productive portion of his career is spent with the Mets- if none are I suspect he will ignore Dontrelle and [pretend he doesn't exist- or rant at how overrated he is/was.
Personally I expect his career to end up looking like Frank Viola's/Chuck Finley's...
Sam M. will say, "Boy, was I wrong about him. Congratulations on a magnificent career, Dontrelle Willis!"
Let's be clear about the nature of my wrongness, though: I think Willis is a very fine, consistent, valuable, pitcher. This isn't Jason Marquis, for goodness sake. In my judgment, he's just not at the elite level, that's all. And there's more evidence to support my view of that than there is the other side.
On teh off chance you two are arguing about 2 separate injuries...
Beltran's quad problem appears to be here to stay- it affected him in 2005- but he apparently learned to adjust and compensate for it in 2006.
Beltran's September 2005 performance was affected by his collision with Cameron- just before that play was the only time all year that Beltran lookd comfortable at the plate- collisions like that do not happen all the time
Overall the projections looks pretty good.
Personally I expect his career to end up looking like Frank Viola's/Chuck Finley's...
Finley, I can see the comparisons. But Sweet Music? They're day and night. I would say Cole Hamels has the best resemblance to Viola.
You're kidding, right? Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat. Willis is worth much to the Mets beyond his pitching skills, and Minaya doesn't value either Milledge or Pelfrey enough to say no to that deal, I believe. Those guys may have lower ceilings than at least three other Mets prospects, for one thing.
Omar wouldn't do that deal, because if he would it would be done already. No way the Marlins would turn that down.
You're kidding, right? Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat. Willis is worth much to the Mets beyond his pitching skills, and Minaya doesn't value either Milledge or Pelfrey enough to say no to that deal, I believe.
Actually, Margo, I believe Minaya is holding out for a Milledge + Pelfrey for Freddy Garcia deal.
Bibigon, this is all your fault.
It seems every couple of weeks, there's some Red Sox fan telling us that Minaya would do a Pelfrey and Milledge for Willis trade when it was widely reported at the deadline that Minaya et al. weren;t eveb considering it.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/07/31/mets.trade.deadline/1.html
You are an anti-Metite
Well, we DO need a second baseman . . . . But you know, I think it would be wrong to deprive poor kevin of his mancrush. I think we'll have to pass.
LOL
That'll cost you six years and $102 million or so... But look on the bright side: you get to keep Milledge and Pelfrey and your ironic sensibility, if not your innocence
Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now? So I guess I hope you're happy with the kids for however many more months they stay in your system... Some of my best friends are Mets fans too, by the way. I love you people...
What does that even mean?
Just for fun, I decided to see how the projected rotation would do compared with what the Met rotation did last year. I did assume that Maine and Pelfrey would combine to pitch 90 more innings (339 IP altogether).
Last year, the Mets rotation put up a 4.67 ERA in 918.2 IP.
The projected rotation of Glavine, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, El Duque, and Humber puts up an ERA of 4.34 over 892 IP.
If you want to discuss whether Minaya made a mistake by not taking that deal, that's perfectly reasonable and if there's somethign Met fans around here are always up to, it's a reasonable disucssion. That's a lot different from this statement though;
Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat.
Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now?
As opposed to this spring, when most of the media and public will be speculating whether or not the Amazins will repeat.
So I guess I hope you're happy with the kids for however many more months they stay in your system...
I'm hoping for about 200 months more in our system each for Pelfrey and Milledge.
Some of my best friends are Mets fans too, by the way. I love you people...
Bibigon, Artist, Gaelan, and Vaux don't count. Just because they enjoy trading Mets prospects, it doesn't make them Mets fans ...
Please, I feel like I've walked into a funhouse. I'm obviously a crazy Epstein fanboy, so would some other non-Mets fan kindly put the over/under on the total number of innings these people will actually pitch for the Mets next season, and on the rotation era if that's the rotation? 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.
Repeat what -- the upset NCS exit?
I count J. Cross as a friend. I have other Mets fan friends. I've lived in Brooklyn. Did I miss a secret handshake or something?
That's my quote from earlier in this thread and I did but the qualifier that I was just doing that for fun. I don't think there's a single Met fan around here who doesn't think the Mets don't need at least one more reliable starter. And it's not like I used a CFBPS to get those numbers, I just used ZIPS.
Sorry for my horrible post. I need an edit button.
Thanks, I've always viewed Mets and Sox fans as natural friend joined by their hatred of the Yankees.
Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now? So I guess I hope you're happy with the kids for however many more months they stay in your system...
This sounds like someone who would trade Billingsley, Elbert and Carlos Gonzalez for Matsuzaka.
btw, I just listened in a a phone interview with Will Carroll about the gyroball (a couple physics students at my school are doing a research project on it). I think I've finally figured this pitch out.
In Shea????
Glavine, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, El Duque, and Humber
let's see 2006 IP for those 6 was 719 so methinks your 2007 par for IP is a wee bit low- if you add Pelfry & Humber's minor league IP that # goes up to 892....
4.80??? In the NL? in Shea? - so essentially you see the worst rotation in recent Mets history?
who's walking in/out of that funhouse???
Hee-hee. Note that I said Omar would do it; I didn't say it'd be a good idea. Except that over the last year and the next couple it clearly would/would have been...
We'll he actually hit 15 that year split between low and high A
He hit 12 the next year split between low A, high A and AA.
Then he hit 11 last year in 473 AB split between AAA and MLB.
But, you're right, the idea of a 21 yr. old adding a little power is preposterous.
I wasn't saying they were similar pitchers- I just said I thought his CAREER woudl look similar on the back of a baseball card- I don't really have anyone in mind as being "similar" to Dontrelle as a pitcher.
Hamels- statistically- looks NOTHING like Viola- which was the type of comparison I was making
For all his stuggles last year at the big league level, he did hit 4 homers in 166 ABs which projects to 12 in the 498 ABs he's projected to have next season. I don't think 13 homers is that optimistic.
The most unreasonably optimistic predictions being stated here are much more likely than the 500 IP and 4.80 that you see as "par." Those numbers are just silly. Every single pitcher named would have to both get seriously hurt and pitch terrible when healthy in order for that to happen. I don't really know how to respond.
Well, if you don't think the other 4 are going to be healthy enough to make it through the season or effective enough to post ERA+s better than about 90, Pelfrey and Humber are both locks to be pitching in New York.
Fair enough
Pelfrey and Humber are ticketed for AAA, so it will be hard for them to help the big-league ballclub from New Orleans.
Only if we assume that the Mets add a starter. If the Mets went in with the group list in the ZiPS above, Pelfrey would stand a good chance of being the #5 starter and Humber would have a fair chance of being the first in line if someone went down mid-season.
And let's not forget about his gold glove caliber defense.
Its so easy to forget how good and young Dontrell has been. I Sam is of course going to say, just one year... and of course that is a load of pooppy #### because he doesn't say that about Reyes, and guess what that year counts.
Anywhere he is a list of pitchers who post expansion have won as many games as Dontrell and prevented as many runs relative to average:
W RSAA
Dwight Gooden 100 116
Bert Blyleven 95 171
Frank Tanana 84 101
Fernando Valenz 78 79
Dennis Eck 77 112
Gary Nolan 76 97
Bret Saberhagen 69 86
Ken Holtzman 65 71
Dean Chance 62 72
Roger Clemens 60 105
Dontrelle Willis58 60
Thats a pretty fantastic list. If Willis stays healthy I think Sam will be proven very wrong on how elite a talent Willis is.
The last time you noticed a Boston fan letting something go was... when, again? We have our grudges stuffed and mounted for posterity.
I'll try not to but it was has been seven years now.
Not preposterous... only optimistic. I just don't think he'll add as much power as you do. Milo's 'doubles' power won't become over-the-wall power like it might for other prospects.
I also think the K's are low and the average is high.
Glavine: 246 2/3 Comment: Will be 41 on Opening day
El Duque 214 1/3 in 1999
Most since '99: 162 1/3 last year
Average since '99: 135 IP (throwing out the year he didn't pitch)
Pelfrey: 139 2/3 ('05 Wichita St.) 117 2/3 (past year, pros) AA BB/9 in '06: 3.53
Maine: 168 1/3 ('05 Balt/Ottawa) Last year: 146 2/3
Oliver Perez 196 ('04 Pitt) Last year: 158 2/3 MLB WHIP: wrong side of 1.7
Philip Humber: 128 (Rice '03)
You havce a lot of talent here, but also lots of question marks beyond glavine and maine, assuming you're sold on Maine. I grant you 4.80 might be kinda high for Shea. But I don't think this bunch will pitch even 800 innings in '07, if only because Omar's not that stupid.
Actually the reason most of them weren't elite pitchers were injuries. The Sams objection is that he isn't that he will likely get hurt, but that he isn't all that good. Holtzman is the only who imho fits what Sam is describing.
That would be "Count the Ringz," which would be a couple of links down. Rlr will gladly show you the wat.
I'm obviously a crazy Epstein fanboy, [...] and on the rotation era if that's the rotation? 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.
I didn't realize Theoism also confers the gift of Cassandra. Dan should scrap his ZIPS and ask you to "see" what the projections will be next year. Instead of CHONE or ZIPS, we could call it MARGO.
Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now
Repeat what -- the upset NCS exit? ?
I'm not sure. But I'd figure I'd let you answer your own question, unless it was some other voice in your head.
Hee-hee. Note that I said Omar would do it; I didn't say it'd be a good idea. Except that over the last year and the next couple it clearly would/would have been...
Ahh, we come to the fallback reason - "I don't think it's a good idea, but what the heck, they're not my prospects" argument. Sorry, bibigon took that argument already.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main