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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, December 21, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Bobby Abreu* rf 33 .287 .414 .466 150 534 89 153 34 1 20 98 114 122 28 7
Jason Giambi* dh 36 .241 .400 .490 125 394 70 95 17 0 27 97 91 97 1 0
Alex Rodriguez 3b 31 .287 .387 .497 156 589 108 169 26 1 32 126 88 138 16 3
Hideki Matsui* lf 33 .293 .367 .474 133 498 85 146 31 1 19 100 58 77 1 1
Derek Jeter ss 33 .302 .378 .440 152 625 111 189 34 2 16 92 66 110 21 4
Robinson Cano* 2b 24 .315 .343 .493 143 568 81 179 41 3 18 97 24 68 3 2
Jorge Posada# c 35 .264 .368 .451 127 417 59 110 22 1 18 84 63 93 1 1
Josh Phelps 1b 29 .279 .338 .486 119 426 39 119 21 2 21 72 31 107 2 1
Craig Wilson rf 30 .255 .344 .478 114 368 59 94 18 2 20 61 32 124 1 1
Melky Cabrera# lf 22 .295 .355 .445 157 584 93 172 28 3 18 92 55 67 12 5
Johnny Damon* cf 33 .290 .353 .437 149 611 112 177 31 4 17 88 60 82 16 6
Russ Johnson 3b 34 .261 .354 .406 95 310 39 81 19 1 8 39 43 47 2 2
Bernie Williams# rf 38 .267 .343 .410 127 439 66 117 24 0 13 69 51 66 0 1
Aaron Guiel* lf 34 .243 .329 .429 119 382 57 93 21 1 16 54 40 93 3 1
Kevin Thompson cf 27 .253 .333 .417 109 391 61 99 25 3 11 44 45 78 17 9
Mitch Jones lf 29 .234 .309 .449 128 457 57 107 25 2 23 80 46 155 3 3
Kevin Reese* lf 29 .260 .319 .405 102 393 60 102 24 3 9 44 29 85 8 5
Terrence Long* lf 31 .267 .318 .390 104 326 36 87 15 2 7 44 23 56 2 1
Andy Phillips 1b 30 .245 .312 .411 108 326 56 80 14 2 12 57 29 59 2 2
Bronson Sardinha* rf 24 .250 .319 .391 148 537 61 134 22 3 16 73 54 126 3 3
Jason Conti* cf 32 .256 .315 .395 92 332 52 85 18 2 8 48 25 77 2 1
Nick Green 2b 28 .254 .320 .366 104 279 39 71 15 2 4 29 22 66 3 2
Andy Cannizaro ss 28 .258 .330 .343 113 376 54 97 23 0 3 34 36 45 5 2
Brett Gardner* cf 23 .255 .332 .324 145 522 88 133 17 5 3 40 60 105 40 15
Eric Duncan* 1b 22 .219 .297 .385 110 384 41 84 14 1 16 48 41 97 3 2
Keith McDonald c 34 .240 .313 .345 64 200 22 48 12 0 3 26 19 47 1 0
Danny Garcia 2b 27 .245 .318 .343 128 400 44 98 23 2 4 41 33 65 15 7
Sal Fasano c 35 .217 .265 .411 75 207 23 45 7 0 11 34 10 49 0 0
Kevin Howard* 3b 26 .245 .288 .370 115 408 42 100 17 2 10 50 23 70 3 5
Felix Escalona ss 28 .235 .289 .352 103 344 39 81 19 0 7 45 20 63 2 0
Miguel Cairo 2b 33 .243 .300 .332 75 226 28 55 12 1 2 26 12 26 10 2
Rob Stratton rf 29 .228 .270 .381 54 197 10 45 9 0 7 28 11 76 1 1
Wil Nieves c 29 .252 .282 .344 92 326 33 82 14 2 4 33 12 41 2 1
Ben Davis# c 30 .216 .264 .344 69 218 19 47 10 0 6 25 14 51 1 1
Raul Chavez c 34 .206 .245 .276 67 199 14 41 8 0 2 20 9 32 0 0
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Melky Cabrera
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .314 .382 .514 162 601 112 189 35 5 25 122 65 59 15 3
Mean .295 .355 .445 157 584 93 172 28 3 18 92 55 67 12 5
Pessimistic (15%) .278 .329 .399 120 446 61 124 19 1 11 56 34 58 6 5
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Mariano Rivera 37 2.01 8 1 68 0 76.0 61 17 3 15 66
Chris Britton 24 3.63 3 1 57 0 72.0 64 29 6 25 65
Randy Johnson* 43 3.71 19 9 34 34 223.0 202 92 27 54 196
Mike Mussina 38 3.91 13 8 30 30 184.0 189 80 21 43 148
Philip Hughes 21 4.06 12 7 31 31 164.0 164 74 15 58 127
Andy Pettitte* 35 4.10 15 9 32 31 193.0 204 88 24 50 140
Kyle Farnsworth 31 4.16 4 2 72 0 67.0 60 31 9 29 67
Mike Myers* 38 4.25 2 2 67 0 36.0 36 17 4 15 23
Chien-Ming Wang 27 4.28 12 9 29 28 183.0 202 87 16 48 79
Colter Bean 30 4.45 6 5 55 3 83.0 78 41 8 46 74
Scott Proctor 30 4.60 5 4 73 1 90.0 90 46 13 33 76
Carl Pavano 31 4.64 8 7 20 20 128.0 150 66 16 30 66
J.B. Cox 23 4.71 4 3 37 0 65.0 70 34 6 26 34
Jose Veras 26 4.74 5 4 52 4 76.0 78 40 11 32 51
Humberto Sanchez 24 4.75 7 7 19 18 108.0 106 57 12 51 88
Brian Bruney 25 4.75 3 3 48 0 53.0 47 28 5 35 51
Kei Igawa 27 4.77 13 11 30 30 200.0 225 106 33 49 135
T.J. Beam 26 4.93 4 4 53 1 84.0 88 46 12 34 59
Dusty Bergman* 29 4.97 4 3 48 0 67.0 76 37 8 21 40
Charlie Manning* 28 5.00 5 6 48 4 90.0 95 50 12 41 62
Ron Villone* 37 5.07 4 6 67 3 87.0 88 49 9 49 65
Darrell Rasner 26 5.12 4 5 20 17 102.0 121 58 14 25 46
Jesus Colome 29 5.19 2 3 40 0 52.0 55 30 7 25 33
Jeff Karstens 24 5.25 10 11 31 29 185.0 210 108 33 56 100
Sean Henn* 26 5.36 6 7 24 21 121.0 131 72 17 59 70
Tyler Clippard 22 5.42 9 12 28 28 161.0 178 97 29 60 117
Mark Corey 32 5.45 4 6 59 1 76.0 86 46 11 32 47
Jeffrey Marquez 22 5.46 8 9 23 22 127.0 149 77 14 55 65
Aaron Small 35 5.48 7 8 28 19 128.0 155 78 22 33 61
Ben Kozlowski* 26 5.55 5 6 33 17 128.0 147 79 20 51 72
Chase Wright* 24 5.60 7 10 36 21 151.0 172 94 19 77 81
Francisco Butto 25 5.68 3 4 41 4 84.0 97 53 14 36 51
Kris Wilson 30 5.91 7 10 29 23 140.0 174 92 32 34 72
Jeff Kennard 25 6.29 5 8 49 0 83.0 96 58 16 43 54
Mike Brunet 30 6.43 3 5 23 0 35.0 41 25 7 16 28
Tommy Phelps* 33 6.52 3 6 21 13 80.0 101 58 16 29 35
Matt Childers 28 6.55 3 7 41 11 99.0 124 72 21 36 47
Scott Erickson 39 7.04 3 6 22 12 78.0 97 61 17 41 31
Ramiro Mendoza 35 7.42 2 4 25 7 57.0 78 47 15 16 17
Danny Borrell* 28 7.46 2 5 16 14 76.0 98 63 21 32 40
Matt DeSalvo 26 7.56 4 11 25 23 125.0 142 105 25 98 73
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Phil Hughes
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.24 15 6 34 34 186 172 67 13 57 150
Mean 4.06 12 7 29 29 164 164 74 15 58 127
Pessimistic (15%) 5.05 8 8 26 26 132 144 74 17 56 95
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 21, 2006 at 07:06 PM | 90 comment(s)
Related News: NY Yankees, ZIPS
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And much to my amusement, a certain Mets outfield prospect.
And as much as everyone loves Melky, there's no way he'll touch that optimistic projection for the simple reason that he's not going to play every day.
SJ and kevin up in a tree...
Oops, I never did one for Igawa!
Doin' and includin'.
You look at Mariano and you think, how can a 37-year-old project to have a 2.01 ERA? Then you remember he's had a sub-2.00 ERA for 5 damn years in a row. It's unfathomable, the stinking one-pitch mummy freak. How the hell?
Is that what you really want? If Johnson does puts up those numbers, the Yanks will win their 40th straight division title.
He's a Cyborg.
Oh, and I'll take the over on A-Rod and Damon, and the under(but not by a huge amount) on RJ and Melky.
I think a couple of the hitters are a little pessimistic and some of the pitchers a little optimistic although I could see RJ breaking an ERA of 4 if he doesnt have to pitch in April and the back heals up nice
*tears up Christmas card for Szymborski's computer*
Better upgrade your virus protection, Szym. Your computer is spitting out stupid projections.
I didn't really think it was unlucky. It seemed like he would be going along fine until one of his various maladies began to bother him, which caused all his pitches to go up and away to right-handed hitters. It wasn't luck that got him. It was his physical inability to pitch effectively for very long.
I'm also confident Wang's E.R.A. will be below four. He pitched great after a second half adjustment [suggested by Mike Mussina] to his delivery from the stretch. He pitched much better with men on base after that adjustment, and should carry it over into next season.
Cano has a .319 career batting average, I'll be disappointed if "only" hits .315.
I am very pleased I was open about my don't trade Melky feelings.
Dan, I think Igawa's projection here is worse then Chone's. Do you have the Japanese leagues rated lower in difficulty or does ZIPs not like something in particular about Igawa?
I wonder what percentile of his ZIPS projection Jeter reached this year...
2) DA YNEKES RULZ!
3) I WILL DONTATE MY LEFT TESTITCLE TO SCIENCE IF NO YANK SLUGS 500
Score?
The issue, and I'm certain that everybody will agree with me on this one, is that Mo is a robot. And robots should not be allowed in organized baseball. However you feel about PEDs and so forth, I think we can all agree that animatronic humans don't belong in baseball, at least at this point in time. As a result, I expect the Yankees to be stripped of all their titles, World, league, or otherwise, since Mo first joined the staff. I will be glad to inform the Orioles, Braves, Indians, Red Sox, and Padres of their unexpected retroactive success.
NO ROBOTS IN BASEBALL!!
(My score was much lower than a 180--I'm in awe of you Phil--but easily high enough to get into the college of my choice.)
Also, Congrats Dzop.
His 2006 translates quite well for Yankee Stadium (13-10, 3.75), but he allowed a *lot* of homers the previous 2 years, 28 per 200 IP - that's more than Darrell May allowed there and a lot more homers than any Japanese pitcher that's come over - only Yabu is even in the same time zone.
I know. That that cooler (and throbbing, hungover) heads are prevailing, I feel like a bit of a deuchebag.
Oh well.
I always appreciate careful, RB. But I think a person would have to work pretty hard to be offended at this evaluation of Lidle's performance in 2006.
Every year of the last 5, the bookmakers put the Yankees over/under at 100 wins and I scoff. Not this year. This is one fine well-constructed club. I like Humberto Sanchez much better than ZIPS does, but that is mostly subjective.
just kidding. congrats, dzop. if you end up at hahvahd, let me know - one of my best friends just got in there for next year. is that even a top 3 school? i know yale and u chicago are up there.
.261/.354/.406
34 year old journeyman hit .275/.380/.445 in Columbus
Harvard, Yale, and Stanford are the big three as far as law schools go.
An obscenely high LSAT isn't enough to cover really crappy grades. I was outright rejected from several schools well below the top three, and waitlisted (ultimately rejected) from NYU with not a 180, but pretty close.
I got a perfect score on my logic games section. I'd recommend doing tons of them, and using practice tests that explain the answers. I didn't have time to take a formal course so I just took a full practice test plus reviewed and read strategies every day for a month. I used the Princeton Self-Study review book with the CD-ROM and thought it was very worthwhile.
I found a big part of why logic games are so brutal is that if you don't have a good plan of attack, you run out of time. Once I learned good diagramming techniques, I found myself having time to spare on the sections because at least a quarter of the questions were answered directly from my diagrams.
No, Johnson's a good role player who has the unfortunate knack at getting injured at precisely the wrong times in his career.
Don't know about Law School, but I was near perfect (720/800/6) on my GREs, and got rejected by several second tier schools because of my grades. FWIW, the 800 was in Math, and I was applying in Statistics.
After just finishing my first set of exams yesterday, it feels good to be hungover again.
My GPA was below the median in college, and I had a very different experience.
I completely agree with post 55, though. Just take a lot of practice tests.
ch-ch-check it
Law school is different than most other things - they give more weight to the LSAT than other programs give to analogous standardized tests.
Either 1 in 8 or 1 in 12 (I can't remember which) test-takers gets an 800 on the GRE Math. Anyone contemplating grad school in a quantitative field should be able to get an 800, so it's really a minimum competence requirement not an indicator of excellence. I'm far more impressed by the verbal and writing scores, those might actually distinguish you from other candidates, if your program cared.
Yeah, I work with an academic refugee who said every single math grad student he met at Indiana U. had an 800 on the GRE Math. Now that I think about that, I wonder if this guy collected GRE scores.
FWIW, not according to US News and World Report, which rates the top 5 as Yale-Stanford-Harvard-Columbia-NYU. Having not paid attention to these things in the more-than-a-few years since I attended law school, I'm surprised to see NYU that high. When I was applying, it was considered to be more in the 10-15 range.
Hopefully it's tougher now, but when I took the GRE (about 20 years ago), I don't think the math section asked anything beyond high-school level algebra and basic geometry. I'm pretty sure there were no trig or calculus questions on there. In short, I'm pretty sure I could have done better (I still got an 800) on the math section if I'd taken it my junior year in high school rather than 10 years later.
That's why the GRE isn't worth as much in terms of admissions as the LSAT is. The LSAT is focused on differentiating between the top scorers - even though it's only there's only a 60 point scale(from 120-180), a score like a 169 is already in the 97.5th percentile. That's why a 180 is so rare and impressive. I believe there are on the order of about 100 180s per year.
"God must have needed an 85 ERA+."
I took the GRE this past February and scoring high on the Math is stupid easy. I hadn't taken a math course or thought about math for almost ten years. I studied one of those books for about 5 days. I had no idea what I was doing on the test. I got a higher Math score than I did on the SAT, which I took when I was still a math student. They may as well not bother with it.
I kind of enjoyed the Verbal section, though. It was sort of interesting.
Self awareness is a good thing. Congratulations on your big score.
I am, but I'm strongly considering leaving at the end of this academic year.
Well with four plays projected with SLG between .486 and .497 it's almost a certainty that one of them at least will SLG .500 simply through random variation.
Well with four players projected with SLG between .486 and .497 it's almost a certainty that at least one of them will SLG .500 simply through random variation. I don't these projections can be used to suggest that no one will slug more than .500
Also, when Melky reaches that optimistic projection and slugs .514, he'll be one of the players to do it. I'd say The Rod, Giambi and Matsui (Matsui better, or I'm gonna go back to hating him) probably all slug .500. Maybe Cano or Abreu gets there instead of Matsui.
i proctor the lsats administered at my school and got the check for it a few weeks back.
i bet arod exceeds .500 by a bit. what, you want evidence? too bad. you'll take "gut feeling" and like it.
The last season he substantially missed .500 (.496 in 1997) was when he was ####### nineteen years old.
Congrats, PH. I should have known that the 79 post thread in TO was an LSAT jerkoff session.
I know this may be asking a nudge too much on New Year's day, but what would be RJ's zips in AZ in 2007 and 2008? Opt 15% and Pess 15% would be wonderful to see.
Since you'll have to run those projections for when the trade is completed anyhow, do you mind getting a leg up on the competition and posting those for us early?
Thanks!
GRE prep is a breeze, just make sure to take lot of practise tests, and have strict time control
Supply and demand. The good engineering/CS/science/math schools are looking at SAT scores for high school students, as noted above, no self-respecting program that requires any sort of mathematical skill (pure and applied math or stats) even looks at the GRE math section scores. The math subject exam is much more relevant. Therefore, the GRE math section is really aimed at trying to weed out the truly mathematically incompetent in the biological and social sciences, which is why it ends up being easier than the SAT math.
Whose leg does a dog have to hump around here to get Johnson's zips for AZ?
Can't help but think your projections on Melky are way, way too optimistic. He's never posted better than an .800 OPS at any level higher than A-ball, other than 135 PA's at Columbus last spring. I also don't see where he gets close to 600 AB's as a fourth outfielder. You are obviously using more objective empirical evidence that carries more weight than my pure conjecture, but I would be willing to bet heavily that Melky does no better than an .830 OPS with a sub-10 VORP and fewer than 70 RBI's.
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