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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, December 29, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Jason Bay lf 28 .279 .378 .521 148 530 88 148 32 3 30 88 80 138 9 1
Xavier Nady rf 28 .280 .341 .467 123 407 56 114 26 1 16 57 29 72 2 1
Freddy Sanchez 3b 29 .306 .348 .432 140 500 67 153 41 2 6 61 29 47 2 1
Jose Bautista cf 26 .255 .338 .431 141 483 66 123 27 2 18 60 51 113 3 4
Joe Randa 3b 37 .274 .337 .412 101 354 44 97 26 1 7 38 31 56 0 1
Ryan Doumit# c 26 .252 .322 .438 97 290 40 73 19 1 11 41 21 65 2 1
Jody Gerut* rf 29 .254 .330 .424 108 401 54 102 25 2 13 53 42 54 8 5
Adam Boeve rf 27 .268 .340 .389 113 380 47 102 20 1 8 43 37 107 13 5
John Castellano lf 29 .274 .323 .418 87 292 31 80 18 0 8 40 17 43 1 1
Nate McLouth* cf 25 .267 .325 .409 131 416 71 111 28 2 9 38 32 70 21 8
Chris Duffy* cf 27 .274 .326 .389 110 409 64 112 21 4 6 33 25 82 22 7
Ronny Paulino c 26 .272 .327 .378 132 452 47 123 22 1 8 49 36 83 1 0
Jeromy Burnitz* rf 38 .246 .316 .414 117 406 52 100 21 1 15 54 38 86 2 3
Brent Lillibridge ss 23 .251 .335 .369 129 450 67 113 23 3 8 40 54 99 32 12
Raul Gonzalez rf 33 .256 .315 .379 86 309 37 79 18 1 6 35 24 41 4 2
Yurendell de Caster 3b 37 .255 .308 .403 121 404 44 103 23 2 11 43 29 103 4 5
Jack Wilson ss 29 .270 .312 .377 137 530 63 143 25 4 8 40 30 61 5 2
Jose Castillo 2b 26 .256 .304 .388 130 446 50 114 21 1 12 52 29 79 4 2
Mike Edwards 3b 30 .250 .317 .362 103 340 43 85 21 1 5 32 31 56 4 3
Brad Eldred 1b 26 .223 .262 .474 62 215 27 48 12 0 14 29 11 82 1 1
Chris Aguila lf 28 .251 .312 .366 110 295 36 74 15 2 5 33 25 78 6 4
Andrew McCutchen cf 20 .255 .305 .372 154 599 69 153 27 2 13 57 41 130 18 10
Simon Pond* 3b 30 .228 .300 .373 107 373 39 85 25 1 9 48 36 95 2 1
Chris Truby 3b 33 .228 .295 .384 102 346 45 79 22 1 10 41 30 83 4 2
Rich Thompson* lf 28 .259 .320 .352 115 375 59 97 13 5 4 27 29 61 24 14
Don Kelly* ss 27 .250 .313 .330 128 460 57 115 24 2 3 42 41 55 13 6
Ray Sadler rf 26 .228 .284 .392 121 395 40 90 19 2 14 44 29 108 8 6
David Parrish c 28 .239 .300 .338 73 234 23 56 11 0 4 24 20 50 0 0
Eddy Garabito# ss 30 .245 .309 .327 122 416 45 102 20 1 4 38 37 53 11 7
Rajai Davis# cf 26 .251 .301 .340 123 430 58 108 22 2 4 23 29 74 26 12
Neil Walker# c 21 .239 .272 .354 140 511 59 122 34 2 7 48 21 84 4 4
Humberto Cota c 28 .223 .267 .355 73 220 19 49 12 1 5 27 13 59 0 0
Tripper Johnson 3b 25 .224 .278 .342 113 398 42 89 25 2 6 34 27 66 2 2
Nyjer Morgan* cf 26 .258 .307 .316 114 415 58 107 13 4 1 21 21 68 30 17
Mike Ryan* rf 29 .227 .281 .338 104 308 27 70 14 1 6 29 23 64 2 3
Javier Guzman ss 23 .237 .275 .317 144 518 51 123 20 3 5 35 25 73 11 8
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Freddy Sanchez
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .328 .374 .490 155 555 87 182 51 3 11 87 36 46 3 1
Mean .306 .348 .432 140 500 67 153 41 2 6 61 29 47 2 1
Pessimistic (15%) .293 .327 .398 109 392 46 115 30 1 3 40 18 40 1 2
Top Comps: Felix Mantilla, Ken Oberkfell
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Mike Gonzalez* 29 2.45 5 1 55 0 55.0 41 15 2 26 65
Salomon Torres 35 3.44 6 4 83 0 89.0 86 34 6 32 61
Matt Capps 23 3.87 4 3 88 0 86.0 92 37 9 13 58
Zach Duke* 24 3.92 14 12 33 33 216.0 232 94 18 59 127
Damaso Marte* 32 3.97 5 4 71 0 59.0 53 26 6 29 58
Tom Gorzelanny* 24 4.06 9 8 27 27 153.0 150 69 14 58 110
Josh Sharpless 26 4.11 2 2 44 0 57.0 51 26 4 33 49
John Grabow* 28 4.23 3 3 70 0 66.0 66 31 7 26 56
Giovanni Carrara 39 4.43 4 3 54 0 61.0 58 30 8 27 49
Allan Simpson 29 4.43 3 4 54 0 69.0 64 34 8 34 64
Franquelis Osoria 25 4.44 6 5 58 0 81.0 86 40 8 28 49
Ian Snell 25 4.53 10 11 31 28 169.0 171 85 25 62 140
Matt Whiteside 39 4.61 2 2 38 0 41.0 43 21 7 12 33
Paul Maholm* 25 4.63 8 9 30 30 177.0 188 91 19 75 115
Marty McLeary 32 4.67 4 5 39 12 106.0 111 55 12 45 78
Jonah Bayliss 26 4.69 3 3 53 0 71.0 67 37 9 38 65
Brian Rogers 24 4.73 3 4 55 0 78.0 82 41 12 25 63
Britt Reames 33 4.75 3 5 29 7 72.0 76 38 8 26 51
David Davidson* 23 4.76 3 4 46 3 87.0 83 46 8 54 68
Shane Youman* 27 4.76 6 9 38 16 136.0 150 72 16 46 66
John Wasdin 34 4.88 5 8 31 17 129.0 139 70 20 43 83
Victor Santos 30 5.08 5 10 26 20 124.0 141 70 15 48 76
Franklin Perez 32 5.35 4 6 34 8 74.0 84 44 12 27 42
Bryan Bullington 26 5.37 6 10 22 21 124.0 139 74 23 44 78
Josh Shortslef* 25 5.42 4 8 18 18 103.0 119 62 15 40 57
Chad Blackwell 24 5.43 4 7 40 0 68.0 75 41 8 34 42
Ryan Vogelsong 29 5.47 3 7 31 11 97.0 107 59 14 41 60
Shawn Chacon 29 5.50 5 9 29 18 108.0 116 66 16 57 60
Terry Adams 34 5.53 3 5 46 0 57.0 66 35 8 24 34
Jim Brower 34 5.61 4 6 69 0 77.0 85 48 10 37 54
Wardell Starling 24 5.66 7 14 30 30 170.0 200 107 28 67 77
Landon Jacobsen 28 5.69 6 12 23 20 125.0 145 79 16 56 51
John van Benschoten 27 5.89 5 11 25 24 133.0 146 87 23 68 85
Sean Burnett* 24 6.15 5 12 24 23 117.0 141 80 20 53 45
Mike Connolly* 25 6.21 5 11 25 24 126.0 146 87 24 61 70
Jason Roach 31 6.32 4 9 28 19 121.0 148 85 22 45 50
Juan Perez 26 6.39 1 4 46 0 69.0 78 49 12 42 47
Ron Chiavacci 29 6.46 3 8 25 11 85.0 98 61 16 46 49
Matt Peterson 25 6.90 4 12 29 22 133.0 158 102 28 78 76
Kevin Cave 27 7.90 1 5 43 0 49.0 56 43 10 39 32
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Zach Duke
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.36 18 10 34 34 225 227 84 15 54 138
Mean 3.92 14 12 33 33 216 232 94 18 59 128
Pessimistic (15%) 4.70 9 12 28 28 176 203 92 20 54 98
Top Comps: Mark Buehrle, Dave McNally
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
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That's, what, four players I'd want on my team next year, only two -- maybe three -- of whom I'd feel comfortable letting play a significant role?
Ick.
2007 projection:
15-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 203 IP, 69 BB, 187 K, 24 HR.
I can't believe we're going to pay Shawn Chacon ~$4M for that projected 5.50 ERA when Shane Youman, Marty Mcleary, or Victor Santos could be replacement-level for the minimum.
Also, Brent Lillibridge's progress has made that Jack Wilson contract extension look silly. Before the extension, Wilson would've been a FA after 2007. Now he's making ~$7M / year through 2009. Lillibridge should be ready by 2008. I imagine Wilson will get shopped next winter.
Tracy: Well, we committed 24 errors, and their pitcher threw a no hitter against us, but there is some good news! Two of our runners almost managed to get to first base, and we did hit seventeen foul balls!
Littlefield: That's the spirit! Cokes and hot dogs on me!
It must be scary when the top projected OPS for a 1B comes in at #20, a few spots below Jose Castillo.
If you go to, for example, Jason Bay's BB-Ref page, the LgOBP it shows is .343, which would include park effects for PNC and, I think, remove pitcher hitting. Using .343, I think that gives you 2 Pirates above league-average, Bay and Sanchez (.348). LgSLG shows up as .442, and LgOPS is .785, so the Pirates look to have 2 guys with projected OPS+ > 100, although the NL had a 4.49 ERA last year, so that probably overstates how bad the Pirates' offense is (although not by much).
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB KZach Duke* 24 3.92 14 12 33 33 216.0 232 94 18 59 127
Tom Gorzelanny* 24 4.06 9 8 27 27 153.0 150 69 14 58 110
Ian Snell 25 4.53 10 11 31 28 169.0 171 85 25 62 140
Paul Maholm* 25 4.63 8 9 30 30 177.0 188 91 19 75 115
Shawn Chacon 29 5.50 5 9 29 18 108.0 116 66 16 57 60
Their number four starter has a 4.63 ERA? Isn't that great according to that article posted before this one that analyzed rotations?
BTW, just because Zips projects this Pirates rotation to be so good leads to a little skepticism for me about the system. I always read these projections Dan, and very much like them...but do you agree that the Pirates rotation will be this good?
I know I sure don't.
Ick.
[Dressed in tuxedos, every team member, except Chris Duffy, stands behind Home Plate and looks at us]
Pirates: Hello. Do you know us?
[Everybody, except Zach Duke, puts on their caps]
Pirates: We're a Major League Baseball team.
Jack Wilson: But since we haven't <s>won a pennant in over 30 years</s> had a winning season in 15 years, nobody recognizes us - not even in our own home town.
Mike Gonzalez: That's why we carry the American Express card.
Freddy Sanchez: No matter how far out of first we are, it's cool. You know, it keeps us from getting shut out at our favorite hotels and restaurant-type places.
Jason Bay: [pointing to us] So if you're looking for some Big-League clout, apply for that little green home-run hitter.
Ian Snell: Look what it's done for US. People still DON'T recognize us but...
[Snell snaps his fingers]
Dave Littlefield: We're contenders now.
[Also dressed in a tuxedo, Duffy slides into Home Plate and holds up a green credit card]
Chris Duffy: The American Express card: Don't steal home without it.
That would make him the Pirates fourth best hitter. Ouch.
What made you choose 38?
Superstars all. I give you the Pirates, your 2007 NL champions.
Are you forgetting The Butterfly? I think this is tops, baby! And also clearly predictive of victories.
Remember, these are mean projections! Some of these guys will be injured or some other bad thing and the downside for decent pitchers tends to be greater than the upside.
The projected ERA+s for the top 4 plus Chacon are:
Duke - 111
Gorzelanny - 108
Snell - 96
Maholm - 94
Chacon - 79
That's hardly some world-beating rotation because that's not the rotation that they'll get in the real world. Give a little realistic luck both ways and you get something like this
Duke - 118
Gorzelanny - 96 (elbow) / Wasdin or someone - 88
Snell - 100
Maholm - Out for Season (shoulder) / Burnett 71 / van Benschoten - 74
Chadon - 86 traded in June
I haven't heard his name in a while. I once wrote a somewhat profane song called "John Wasdin Blues". I've been debating with myself whether I ought to send him a tape.
I'm gonna say it's because he's their Rick Vaughn type. I don't know why Freddy Sanchez got his line, but that's more a stylistic choice than anything. I could definitely see Chris Duffy as the team rebel, but then again, I agree that Duffy would pull off the part of Willie Mays Hayes better than McLouth or whoever else might audition for the role. All in all, it gets a thumbs up from me.
This year Shawn Chacon is coming off a season where after being traded from his previous team he went 2-3, 5.48 and gave up five runs in five and a third in his last start of the year, a regular season game in September.
Talk about reversal of fortune!
What made you choose 38?
Good ole fashioned gut feeling. I guess I still have psychological remnants of Brian Giles as a Pirate.
Fortunately, the r-value for Dan's 2006 projections and the actual result was only .524 (for those eight players) on the negative side anyway so I think ZIPS tends to see PNC a bit rougher than it really is. That r-.524 was ZIPS best year in the last 4 for our starting eight position players so it might be starting to pick up the players better now that they are getting some ABs under their belts since they are all pretty youthful.
As for the pitching, as everyone knows none of the projection systems do very good with pitching. But as Dan mentioned earlier we have at least two of the main five starters with barking elbows that could quickly turn 2007 into a year that makes the last time Dick Littlefield w/Pirates had the lowest ERA a wonderful year in comparison.
I'm surprised ZIPS didn't pick up JVB better despite its limitations as well as picking up a potential huge breakout year for McLouth which I think is due if he gets consistent ABs. We'll see.
This is why misleading and incorrect articles need to be refuted. Misinformation spreads like a virus.
However, Gaelan if you have a problem with the study I'm sure you can conduct your own research and Dan S. will be happy to publish it. Yet I don't expect that to happen as you seem to be far more interested in quibbling with minor points than contributing to the body of knowledge.
you does sure right purty tho.
Have you ever seen Zach Duke wearing a hat? He looks like a white Pokey Reese (another former Pirate). That is not a good thing.
Really, I equated Duke as their best young pitcher, so I put him in Vaughn's spot. Duffy's not really the team rebel, he's more likely the fastest and leadoff hitter, which is why he's in Hayes' spot.
I still recall all the arguments made by Yankee fans on this site as to why Shawn Chacon was for real. They very much sounded like all the arguments made by Yankee fans as to why Aaron Small was for real.
Sadly, in a couple of years, they may be lumped in with all the arguments by Yankee fans as to why Wang is for real.
If you go right down the list, the #4, #6, #7, and #10 guys are projected as backups, the #5 has retired, and the #8 and #9 are slated to be organizational filler at AAA.
And #5 is a guy who decided it was time to hang it up.
Is this the part where we start putting up projections of the guys that the Pirates let go for free (Shelton, Chris Young the pitcher)?
And can we get a Chad Hermansen projection? I'm pretty sure he'd be in the top 8 here... he was .319/.400/.517 at Sioux Falls last year and he's only 29.
His last AAA numbers were in Syracuse, 240/307/438 in sporadic playing time (152 PA).
:-)
Fair enough. :-)
I would like to publicly thank Dan for allowing me to spend the Xmas holidays in Pittsburgh with my family without having posted these putrid projections that would have spoiled our holiday meal.
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