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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, December 31, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Brian Giles* rf 36 .279 .386 .423 144 534 81 149 29 3 14 73 92 62 7 3
Adrian Gonzalez* 1b 25 .289 .350 .475 147 530 77 153 31 1 22 79 48 100 0 1
Josh Bard# c 29 .281 .356 .424 85 224 25 63 11 0 7 29 25 71 1 0
Paul McAnulty* 3b 26 .280 .347 .435 145 483 57 135 29 2 14 61 50 94 2 2
Russell Branyan* 3b 31 .244 .340 .454 109 324 43 79 15 1 17 47 44 171 4 2
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3b 25 .279 .334 .452 87 301 39 84 17 1 11 41 22 67 3 2
Marcus Giles 2b 29 .276 .356 .406 137 525 84 145 31 2 11 54 61 102 11 4
Jack Cust* lf 28 .232 .366 .403 120 380 58 88 17 0 16 49 79 130 0 2
Mike Cameron cf 34 .251 .334 .446 126 482 71 121 27 5 19 61 56 128 19 6
Termel Sledge* lf 30 .260 .339 .436 121 365 38 95 16 3 14 51 44 79 2 2
Khalil Greene ss 27 .253 .324 .418 128 447 58 113 28 2 14 61 42 92 4 1
Todd Walker* 2b 34 .270 .344 .381 113 367 43 99 16 2 7 36 41 39 0 1
Royce Huffman 1b 30 .255 .340 .378 114 384 49 98 24 1 7 40 45 80 3 2
Brian Myrow* 3b 30 .234 .325 .380 110 308 43 72 17 2 8 35 40 89 4 2
Eric Valent* rf 30 .232 .330 .373 95 241 30 56 11 1 7 23 34 65 0 1
Adam Shabala* cf 29 .252 .318 .375 92 301 39 76 15 2 6 31 28 72 6 4
Bobby Hill# 2b 29 .241 .338 .311 110 286 37 69 14 0 2 24 35 68 0 1
Steve Smitherman rf 28 .225 .291 .382 112 377 34 85 26 0 11 44 31 122 3 1
Chase Headley# 3b 23 .242 .313 .343 127 446 48 108 24 0 7 41 45 110 2 3
Craig Stansberry 2b 25 .222 .296 .374 137 465 58 103 27 4 12 48 46 102 12 6
Rob Bowen# c 26 .220 .306 .339 95 227 30 50 9 0 6 20 27 63 1 1
Geoff Blum# 3b 34 .233 .295 .344 91 253 27 59 14 1 4 25 20 42 0 1
Manny Alexander ss 36 .234 .288 .330 102 364 48 85 16 2 5 30 26 60 8 4
Luis Cruz ss 23 .220 .259 .337 144 522 47 115 30 2 9 48 27 68 4 3
Ricky Gutierrez ss 37 .177 .278 .210 20 62 7 11 2 0 0 4 5 13 1 0
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adrian Gonzalez
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .311 .375 .537 159 575 96 179 39 2 29 106 57 97 0 1
Mean .289 .350 .475 147 530 77 153 31 1 22 79 48 100 0 1
Pessimistic (15%) .265 .321 .420 128 460 57 122 24 1 15 55 37 96 0 1
Top Comps: Paul Konerko, Jason Thompson
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Trevor Hoffman 39 2.38 3 1 55 0 53.0 43 14 4 10 45
Scott Linebrink 30 3.04 7 3 70 0 74.0 62 25 8 23 69
Cla Meredith 24 3.06 7 3 74 0 94.0 86 32 7 20 64
Jake Peavy 26 3.23 15 7 30 30 195.0 169 70 21 54 191
Scott Strickland 31 3.63 4 2 43 0 57.0 54 23 7 16 45
Scott Cassidy 31 3.71 8 5 57 1 80.0 72 33 11 30 77
Chris Young 28 3.82 10 7 30 30 165.0 145 70 25 59 145
Greg Maddux 41 3.90 15 11 33 33 203.0 213 88 24 38 118
Mike Adams 29 4.05 3 2 44 1 60.0 59 27 7 22 45
Doug Brocail 40 4.06 3 2 40 1 51.0 49 23 3 22 42
Heath Bell 29 4.08 3 2 47 0 64.0 58 29 8 21 60
Clay Hensley 27 4.14 9 9 34 24 161.0 154 74 18 65 104
Cesar Carrillo 23 4.21 3 3 12 12 62.0 61 29 8 22 47
Andrew Brown 26 4.25 4 4 49 0 72.0 63 34 9 35 62
Frank Brooks* 28 4.38 4 4 50 3 74.0 68 36 10 30 62
Kevin Cameron 27 4.44 4 5 42 0 75.0 71 37 9 36 54
Leonel Rosales 26 4.57 6 7 57 0 65.0 63 33 9 27 52
Chan Ho Park 34 4.61 6 8 22 21 127.0 126 65 16 55 92
Mike Thompson 26 4.65 7 8 29 25 151.0 166 78 20 46 68
Rudy Seanez 38 4.69 3 3 43 0 48.0 44 25 7 26 52
Steve Watkins 28 4.70 5 7 26 16 111.0 114 58 16 44 67
Brian Sweeney 33 4.73 5 6 29 16 118.0 126 62 20 35 70
Tim Stauffer 24 4.74 6 10 26 25 152.0 164 80 19 47 97
David Wells* 44 4.76 6 8 20 20 123.0 140 65 22 21 66
Shawn Estes* 34 4.81 8 10 26 26 159.0 159 85 20 76 96
Ryan Ketchner* 25 4.92 5 8 20 20 108.0 112 59 14 44 77
Sean Thompson* 24 4.93 7 9 28 28 166.0 173 91 25 68 114
Adrian Burnside* 30 4.94 3 4 33 5 51.0 50 28 8 26 39
Justin Hampson* 27 4.98 6 9 29 20 141.0 145 78 23 64 92
Royce Ring* 26 5.09 2 3 47 0 53.0 53 30 9 26 35
Dewon Brazelton 27 5.10 6 10 27 21 127.0 133 72 17 58 75
Jared Wells 25 5.17 7 11 25 25 148.0 159 85 19 70 84
Aquilino Lopez 32 5.24 3 5 46 0 67.0 67 39 15 26 63
Bubba Nelson 25 5.48 4 7 39 8 87.0 89 53 15 46 61
Erick Burke* 29 5.64 2 4 44 0 67.0 66 42 10 43 53
Roger Deago* 38 6.38 4 9 24 15 96.0 107 68 17 57 49
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Chris Young
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.03 13 6 33 33 187 150 63 23 58 176
Mean 3.82 10 7 30 30 165 145 70 25 59 145
Pessimistic (15%) 4.50 7 8 25 25 134 126 67 23 53 114
Top Comps: Sid Fernandez, Bobby Bolin
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 31, 2006 at 10:18 AM | 44 comment(s)
Related News: San Diego, ZIPS
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What, Barry Zito and Horatio Ramirez don't make them WS contenders?
Put it this way - Ray Durham at 271/348/452 has the second highest projected RC/27 on the team. Of the 37 Giant batters I've projected, 18 of them have OBPs below .300.
As for the Mariners, here's the current most likely rotation and their projected ERA+s:
King Felix: 115
Washburn: 96
Batista: 93
Ramirez: 83
Baek: 71 or Woods: 90 or White: 79
I'm a long-time lurker, first-time poster. I wanted to thank Dan for these great projections, they're always insightful.
I'm a long-time lurker, first-time poster. I wanted to thank Dan for these great projections, they're always insightful.
Brain-dead Giants Swinging at Slop?
The Padres pitching looks solid, but I have a sneaky suspicion that AZ's team ERA+ next year will be just as good as San Diego's. Maybe a nudge better.
I hate to say it, but welcome to BTF with a double post!
And unless Dan is being stingy, there aren't a lot of promising hitting prospects knocking on the door. I mean when your ZIPS roster includes Manny Alexander and Ricky Gutierrez and only 2 hitters under 25, organizational depth just might be a problem.
Shawn Estes will only be 34? Who knew?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5780
Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3b
2. Cesar Carillo, rhp
Good Prospects
3. Cedric Hunter, cf
4. Matt Antonelli, 3b
Average Prospects
5. Nick Hundley, c
6. Chase Headley, 3b
7. Paul McAnulty, 1b/3b/of
8. Will Venable, lf
9. Kyler Burke, rf
10. Chad Huffman, lf
Kouz and McAnulty should help in 07, maybe Carrillo as well. The rest are ways off.
The Padres may lose Cameron next year, and I don't see an internal replacement. Also, I'm not sold on their LF situation long term (or short term) either.
Also, aside from Carrillo, they really don't have an impact pitcher in the system.
No one has missed Jose Cruz Jr. since he was traded away by the Blue Jays.
Young had a flukishly low HR rate in Arlington - he allowed HRs on only 7.8% of flyballs, which is lower than is probably sustainable for him. This year, that jumped to 13.2% and he started allowing more flyballs in the first place. If I had to guess, his ZiPS projection is a pretty good guess as to his HR rate next year.
Don't be fooled by Young's 3.46 ERA last season. His BABIP was a rather unbelievalble .240. His xERA in 2006 of 3.99 was actually worse that the 3.93 he posted in 2005. As HQ has noted, "he could pitch better in 2007 with a worse ERA".
Put it this way - Ray Durham at 271/348/452 has the second highest projected RC/27 on the team. Of the 37 Giant batters I've projected, 18 of them have OBPs below .300.
Wow. I was going to post that the Zito signing gives a Giants a chance because the Padres have no offense and the Dodgers are giving AB's to Juan Pierre as well as a somewhat brittle top half of the rotation, but I guess the Giants offense won't be any better and in fact much worse. They probably still have a shot, but not as good as I thought.
Could be worse Levski, you could be a Rockies fan.
I'm jumping on the Rockies 07 bandwagon right now just to be contrary. Sheesh, that team gets less BTF time than the Pirates or the Royals.
Now I need to go to b-r to see who's actually on the Rockies these days. :-)
I don't bother with teams that still want Randy Johnson's corpse.
Yup! It was so important to get Wake's personal catcher back!
No projection for Mark Bellhorn? He is sitll on the Pads, right?
RJ most likely won't be ready for the season's opener, and might miss the first month recovering from the back surgery. Still, if you can get 175 IP with 3.52 ERA from him, you gotta feel good about AZ's chances in the NL west. Zito or Lasagna notwithstanding.
Walt, the Rockies have a nice young team. They should just eat enough cash and trade Helton. Which they won't. If the humidor holds up, they could have a good season.
--Brazelton is with KC.
--Hensley projection seems a bit pessimistic.
--The idea of McAnulty at SS is hilarious. Thanks.
--The backup outfielders are Branyan and Cruz. I haven't heard Valent's name mentioned in conjunction with anything associated with the team.
--There are two backup MI. Walker will back up Giles at 2B, and Blum, as he has the past two seasons, will back up Greene at SS.
As always, Dan, thanks for your efforts with these projections. Good stuff.
Walt did say "assuming" for McAnulty. I was probably generous to label him a 3B - he's not very good there and only some OKish numbers from Splits kept me from giving him a PR on the DMB disk.
Manny Alexander actually got into 22 games for the Padres this year. Predictably, he wasn't superstar material.
Valent is only listed here since it's the last MLB team he played for - he'll be a free agent on the final disk. I'm usually pretty conservative about stopping projecting players - as long as Valent gets an at-bat in 2007 in the US somewhere, he'll probably get a 2008 projection.
I'm actually cringing in anticipation of what Bellhorn's projection will be. His last couple seasons have not been...good.
I don't know what to tell you about the Pads backup MI situation. Blum isn't very good but they've been using him at SS for the past few years.
Bellhorn was released October 12 -- about four months too late.
I assume you mean that NOT trading Helton is an organizational decision, and not really related to his waning baseball abilities and huge contract. Because NOT trading Helton really doesn't make much sense from a baseball perspective.
Now, acquiring all three of Pujols, Carpenter and Santana does make baseball sense; but it's just crazy talk. I don't think any organization has the spare talent to obtain all three of them in trades and still put a competitive team on the field.
You'd think the Coors effect would make his b-r comps nonsensical, but they're not that bad actually. He's got a 143 career OPS+, his comps average a 147. Chuck Klein, Delgado, and Jim Bottomley are probably the best comps. Palmeiro's on his list and I wouldn't be shocked to see Helton have a similarly long, productive career (unless he's really gotten out of shape the last couple seasons). Anyway, other than Bottomley and Klein, those comps have (so far) gone on to pretty nice late careers (average 128 OPS+ even with those two dragging it way down).
Anyway, that list is chock full of current and future HOFers ... granted most better than Helton's been and/or with solid late careers added on. If he retired today, he'd fall short of the Allen/Mize/Greenberg "short career, high peak" threshhold which has been pretty borderline for HOF induction but unless he falls off the same cliff, he'll end up with a better case than Chuck Klein or Jim Bottomley (neither elected by the writers). He probably does need something like Palmeiro's late career to make the HOF which is unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if we put him in right next to Norm Cash in the HoVG.
I know Levski, you weren't questioning Helton's past production, just his future value per $. A fair concern. But I wouldn't write him off as a productive player yet and trading him now would probably do little more than save some money (but eating a lot of that contract) while opening a big hole in the lineup. I'm sure they'd like to move Hawpe to 1B, but he's no spring-chicken (28) or superstar, so it's not like they need to open a spot for Ryan Howard. From the Rox perspective, no harm in shopping Helton to see what gets offered (I'd dial up the Angels first), but I don't think it's at the point where they "have" to move him to save $$.
Plus I'm guessing that Helton is the main recipient of all the Rox fans' love that used to go to Walker, Castilla, Bichette, etc. Not sure a salary dump with little talent coming in return would go down well with the fans.
My point really is that the Rockies should be able to get some nice young (and cheap) talent back for him if they took on a little bit of his salary. There were rumors that the Angels were offering three players (Kotchman, Mathis, someone else) if the Rockies took on a little bit of salary. I'm sure other teams would offer pretty decent packages for him if they knew the Rockies were open to throwing in some cash along.
The Rockies will begin to face arb decisions with many of their young players over the next couple of years that will cost them quite a bit. And they still need pitching. Could they parlay Helton into solid young players and save some cash to use it on Atkins ot Cook or Hawpe or Holliday? They should at least try
No, he was traded to Cleveland.
It's because he threw a ton of innings in 2006 - 96.2 total. Meredith threw even more in 2004 - 99.2 innings!
Everybody else seems about right.
So far the roster looks as follows.
Slated Starter / backup(s)
C Bard / Bowen
1b Gonzalez / Branyan / McAnulty
2b Giles / Walker
3b Kouzmanoff / Branyan
SS Greene / Blum
LF Sledge / McAnulty / Cruz
CF Cameron / Cruz
RF Giles / Cruz / McAnulty
Rotation
Peavy
Maddux
Young
Hensley
Wells? / Estes? / Park?
With a pretty solid bullpen. I'll go with 88-92 wins in that division.
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