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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, January 01, 2007
2007 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Barry Bonds* lf 42 .269 .464 .539 113 308 71 83 18 1 21 56 102 42 3 0
Ray Durham# 2b 35 .271 .348 .452 123 451 70 122 26 4 16 64 51 60 5 2
Ryan Klesko* lf 36 .261 .364 .411 93 299 43 78 19 1 8 42 49 47 1 1
Rich Aurilia ss 35 .280 .336 .445 110 389 47 109 23 1 13 58 33 53 1 0
Lance Niekro 1b 28 .278 .317 .474 106 327 41 91 18 2 14 53 19 46 0 1
Dave Roberts* lf 35 .280 .350 .386 121 435 70 122 19 9 3 37 46 55 33 7
Todd Linden# rf 27 .252 .335 .431 138 420 75 106 23 2 16 51 50 126 6 3
Mark Sweeney* lf 37 .259 .349 .386 96 189 23 49 10 1 4 26 24 38 0 1
Randy Winn# rf 33 .275 .337 .413 141 549 76 151 34 3 12 47 47 75 12 7
Jason Ellison lf 29 .293 .344 .397 133 365 61 107 22 2 4 24 26 51 15 10
Todd Greene c 36 .277 .315 .416 50 137 13 38 8 1 3 17 7 29 0 0
Eddy Martinez-Esteve lf 23 .251 .324 .409 111 367 57 92 29 1 9 45 39 62 2 2
Bengie Molina c 32 .281 .317 .411 103 370 37 104 15 0 11 48 19 37 1 1
Fred Lewis* lf 26 .256 .337 .382 140 484 73 124 25 6 8 46 58 118 13 9
Kevin Frandsen 2b 24 .283 .336 .392 128 474 80 134 33 2 5 53 17 38 14 13
Omar Vizquel# ss 40 .277 .340 .349 132 502 66 139 20 5 2 42 45 51 15 6
Pedro Feliz 3b 32 .251 .292 .410 144 534 66 134 28 3 17 74 31 94 1 2
Luis Figueroa# 2b 33 .273 .317 .365 116 406 51 111 23 1 4 40 25 28 3 4
Nate Schierholtz* lf 23 .254 .295 .405 133 481 50 122 26 4 13 48 24 103 4 4
Justin Leone 3b 30 .228 .315 .365 96 337 39 77 14 1 10 40 39 90 2 2
Abraham Nunez# rf 30 .237 .315 .367 96 316 43 75 15 1 8 43 35 68 3 3
Eliezer Alfonzo c 28 .246 .290 .388 123 402 40 99 19 1 12 42 18 104 1 1
Eugenio Velez# 2b 25 .250 .286 .385 120 408 47 102 20 7 7 45 18 76 31 12
Dan Ortmeier# cf 26 .237 .292 .369 126 431 54 102 20 2 11 44 32 96 13 8
Chad Santos* 1b 26 .228 .273 .380 115 413 38 94 22 1 13 56 24 124 1 1
Jose Flores ss 34 .236 .308 .317 84 259 30 61 10 1 3 23 23 45 3 1
Travis Ishikawa* 1b 23 .217 .283 .361 121 382 42 83 18 2 11 40 34 119 0 1
Mike Matheny c 36 .234 .283 .353 85 278 22 65 18 0 5 33 16 62 0 1
Guillermo Rodriguez c 29 .219 .270 .377 73 215 23 47 11 1 7 23 13 44 1 1
Steve Finley* cf 42 .227 .291 .335 114 397 49 90 17 4 6 38 35 58 5 2
Justin Knoedler c 26 .240 .289 .345 107 342 40 82 20 2 4 29 23 87 3 3
William Bergolla 2b 24 .258 .292 .330 114 415 48 107 20 2 2 28 18 50 10 5
Jed Hansen 2b 34 .220 .289 .328 86 287 36 63 13 0 6 28 24 73 4 2
Todd Jennings c 25 .234 .262 .301 119 419 42 98 16 0 4 36 12 70 2 2
Ivan Ochoa# ss 24 .220 .287 .267 122 378 42 83 11 2 1 21 31 78 13 7
Marcus Sanders ss 21 .209 .274 .268 90 321 50 67 11 1 2 18 28 71 26 7
Alex Requena# cf 26 .222 .273 .259 99 370 48 82 12 1 0 16 24 92 24 12
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Pedro "BDC" Feliz
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .271 .317 .463 161 594 84 161 38 5 22 101 41 97 1 1
Mean .251 .292 .410 144 534 66 134 28 3 17 74 31 94 1 2
Pessimistic (15%) .230 .265 .369 92 339 36 78 15 1 10 38 16 65 0 2
Top Comps: Gary Gaetti, Pinky Whitney
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Armando Benitez 34 3.72 3 2 47 0 46.0 42 19 7 18 39
Matt Cain 22 4.01 13 10 33 32 193.0 167 86 24 87 174
Barry Zito* 29 4.01 14 11 34 34 216.0 196 96 25 96 165
Kevin Correia 26 4.07 2 2 53 0 73.0 70 33 8 29 54
Steve Kline* 34 4.08 3 3 67 0 53.0 50 24 5 25 35
Noah Lowry* 26 4.15 11 9 31 30 182.0 177 84 22 65 130
Vinnie Chulk 28 4.24 3 3 61 0 70.0 64 33 8 32 59
Matt Morris 32 4.31 12 12 31 31 192.0 198 92 23 55 114
Jack Taschner* 29 4.38 4 5 73 0 74.0 72 36 10 32 68
Jonathan Sanchez* 24 4.57 6 7 40 21 132.0 132 67 19 55 110
Brandon Villafuerte 31 4.66 3 3 42 0 56.0 59 29 6 23 37
Tim Worrell 39 4.70 2 3 45 0 44.0 49 23 7 14 39
Bill Sadler 25 4.72 6 6 57 0 80.0 76 42 10 45 69
Brian Wilson 25 4.75 4 4 51 0 55.0 55 29 4 33 42
Dan Giese 30 4.82 4 6 46 0 71.0 75 38 11 19 41
Brad Hennessey 27 4.90 7 9 33 25 156.0 163 85 21 68 83
Pat Misch* 25 5.01 7 9 29 28 178.0 199 99 30 52 104
Jamey Wright 32 5.08 7 11 31 24 156.0 166 88 21 70 86
Michael Tejera* 30 5.17 4 7 34 13 101.0 108 58 15 44 62
Scott Munter 27 5.18 3 4 56 0 66.0 73 38 5 35 25
Matt Kinney 30 5.22 6 12 32 23 157.0 168 91 23 65 121
Tim Lincecum 23 5.34 6 11 30 25 140.0 132 83 24 85 128
Pedro Liriano 26 5.47 4 7 31 16 107.0 115 65 18 52 68
Jeff Miller 27 5.59 3 5 43 0 58.0 61 36 12 27 44
Merkin Valdez 25 5.77 3 6 34 13 92.0 100 59 15 52 64
Osiris Matos 22 5.77 5 11 45 15 145.0 180 93 33 31 59
Erick Threets* 25 5.85 1 2 45 0 60.0 60 39 6 50 39
Brian Cooper 32 5.93 4 9 28 18 123.0 141 81 23 54 62
Matt Anderson 30 6.85 1 4 41 0 46.0 48 35 9 36 39
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Matt Cain
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.09 17 8 34 34 210 164 72 19 82 202
Mean 4.01 13 10 33 32 193 167 86 24 87 174
Pessimistic (15%) 5.02 8 11 28 27 156 147 87 25 81 135
Top Comps: Pete Harnisch, John Smoltz
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 01, 2007 at 10:55 PM | 34 comment(s)
Related News: San Francisco, ZIPS
Related News: San Francisco, ZIPS
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Harsh.
Er... is this on?
4th, unless you're expecting a trade of Morris, Cain or Lowry. Doesn't bode well for customer satisfaction.
Enough to cause a tear in space-time, hurtling the roster five years into the past, and making the Giants instant World Series favorites.
With 17-year-old Cain, and 21-year-old Correia and Lowry heading the rotation? I've got my doubts. :-)
The Benitez-Kline-Worrell bullpen looks pretty good though. (I thought Kline was like 44 by now).
That might be fun Dan -- run the ZIPS for this roster for 2002. Bonds and Klesko would project better. Aurilia would be coming off his monster season, so he'd project nicely. But not only is this roster old, I'm not sure they were all that good 5 years ago.
I hear the Giants are kicking the tires on both David Wells and Russ Ortiz.
I do like Kevin Correria's projection. I think he will end up with more IP as he will start at some point.
Lincecum's projection seems high.
As for the Giants, I'd bet a good number of the old timers out perform their projections as well as some of the young pitchers and the Giants are in it all year. It's not a very good team, but it's a good team. They could desperately use an infusion of young talent and, though all the rumors about Milledge have him going to Oakland, it would make sense for the Giants to see if they can swap an arm or two to get him for themselves. Or Elijah Dukes from Tampa Bay. What they don't need to do is trade any of their young pitching for any more ####### veterans.
Thanks again for all the work you do. Speaking of drafts, when do you send out the first build of a composite MLB Zips projections? My draft is a couple of months away, but I like to prepare a little at a time. I have had success using a hybrid of Zips and Shandler's Baseball Forecaster the last couple of years.
I usually send out the first build sometime between MLK's birthday and the Super Bowl. Should be on the early side this year, maybe the 10th or so.
Thank you much. Of course, there's no way Jones wrestles playing time away from Willie Bloomquist anyway. How depressing must that be for young Mr. Jones.
I wouldn't go that far. I'd put it more like this: it's not a good team, but it isn't a very bad team.
They probably won't lose 95 games, as many naysayers are predicting. But everything would have to go just right to have them lose fewer than 80. Still, in this division they could find themselves in the playoff hunt. As a fan, of course I'll root for that outside chance.
But if the more likely scenario unfolds, that by mid-July it's clear they're out of it and the only thing left to care about in '07 is will-he-or-won't-he-get-to-756, I do hope Sabean plays seller in the trade market. Quite a few of these veterans might be attractive role players for a contending team, and they don't have problematic contracts for contenders: Vizquel, Durham, Roberts, Aurilia, Klesko. The Giants could conceivably snag a few of the prospects they so desperately lack in deadline deals.
Not the best scenario for a fan to look forward to, I'll grant you.
This would be especially likely if the Dodgers or Padres have a nice little stretch that puts the Giants completely out of the race; like Steve says, the Giants have a bunch of players that aren't terrible that other teams would want for the playoffs. But if the Giants trade Durham midseason and Bonds misses more than half the season, this team is really going to struggle to put up runs. They haven't replaced Alou's bat.
Of course it's possible they'll lose 95. But they probably won't be that bad.
I think you're overstating how meek this offense will be. Yes, they haven't replaced Alou's bat, but he only had 378 PA's in 2006; he didn't have an enormous impact.
And in every other regard, their hitters are either returning, or being replaced by slightly better hitters in 2007:
- Bonds, Durham, Vizquel, Feliz, and Winn are all back. Durham probably won't be as good as he was in '06, but Winn will probably be better.
- Roberts in CF replaces Finley, and will almost certainly be an improvement.
- Klesko/Aurilia at 1B will almost certainly be better than Sweeney/Niekro/Hillenbrand were in '06.
- Molina at C will probably be better than Alfonzo/Matheny were in '06.
The '06 offense delivered a 95 OPS+; not good obviously but not terrible either. The most likely scenario is they'll deliver something close to that in '07. That combined with what looks to be a good rotation adds up to not a good team, but not a 95-game loser either.
Of course there are scenarios in which they could lose 95, but we shouldn't expect that.
The irony, of course, is that it is 2007 now, and Bonds is still with the team. (Or will be as soon as his deal is finalized.) If the Giants had rebuilt smartly, they could have been strong again by now. I don't know if the results would have been any better than they have actually turned out, but it's possible.
If the Giants' second best hitter is an .800 guy and their third best hitter is a powerless first baseman, they are in trouble.
Alou had practically 2/3rds of a season; I would consider that to be a pretty significant impact. He was the 2nd best hitter on the team.
It looks like a dropoff is coming in a few places. Durham comes to mind with his career high SLG, but Vizquel put up his best OBP since 2000 last year and his power should also drop a tad, and Pedro Feliz looks like he's establishing a new level of suckitude.
That 95 OPS+ is with a top three of .454/.545, .352/.571, and .360/.538. Bonds is the only player reasonably predictable for an OBP over .370 OR a SLG over .500.
I don't expect Bonds to miss a ton of time next year (he did play in 130 games in 2006), but if he misses serious time, the Giants might struggle to score 700 runs in 2007.
Sure, but team OPS+ is team OPS+. What matters isn't the best performance, but the aggregate. Most likely it will be a lineup without any stars, but also without any sinkholes.
I don't disagree, but I think the Giants are losing a good portion of the spikes at the top that help pull the whole thing up. It is going to take a lot of improvment at the margins to overcome losing Alou's 2006 offense and having Durham drop down to earth.
I'd also say Feliz is pretty likely to be a sinkhole and 1B might very well be one too.
Possible, of course. But more likely Feliz will rebound to something around a 90 OPS+ -- not good obviously, but not a sinkhole -- and Klesko/Aurilia will patch together something that's while again not good, not the bottomless pit of Sweeney/Niekro/Hillenbrand in '06 (83/71/74).
I completely agree that Alou's bat is a loss. But when you add up everything that's most likely to occur, the result is an offense along the same lines as last year's: not good, but not terrible.
And Bonds is the only guy on this team with a +800 OPS. Double Yikes!
|Beware of this low projection.
Shandler has Adam Jones at .769 and STATS at .751. His MLE OPS for the past two seasons are .777 and .798. I can't really figure out why ZIPS is so negative, other than his 74 unimpressive major league at bats at age 20.
|Beware of this low projection.
Shandler has Adam Jones at .769 and STATS at .751. His MLE OPS for the past two seasons are .777 and .798. I can't really figure out why ZIPS is so negative, other than his 74 unimpressive major league at bats at age 20.
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