Looks like a good rebound year for King Felix. I say that Gookie Dawkins should be allocated a high at bat total so there is an excuse to say his name more.

Have I just been looking at a handful of bad teams, or is Zips very pessimistic this year?

Have I just been looking at a handful of bad teams, or is Zips very pessimistic this year?

I think the former. ZiPS simply doesn't like 3 of the last 4 teams in alphabetical order (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle).

ZiPS simply doesn't like 3 of the last 4 teams in alphabetical order (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle).

Who does?? But are you implying it does like Washington? Well, I'll look forward to it, if only to see how much better Snelling projects than Vidro. 344/382 at DH? Yecch.

Fat, slow and unable to have anyone SLG for close to .500 is no way to go through a baseball season, son. Yet, in another thread, Bavasi opines the lineup will be stronger this year. What a forehanded slam on how putrid it was last year...or Bavasi is just the biggest GM idiot ever (or at least in the running).

The only reason to watch this team in '07 will be to see how fast our GM unloads Putz and King Felix. Rah. Rah.

Who does?? But are you implying it does like Washington? Well, I'll look forward to it, if only to see how much better Snelling projects than Vidro. 344/382 at DH? Yecch.

Oh, I mean 3 of the last 4 teams that have been posted in alphabetical order.

Of the teams I've done that haven't been posted yet, ZiPS is generally positive about the Cardinals (except for the lack of rotation depth) is kinda blah on the Devil Rays and Rangers (but likes both bullpens) and while I haven't gotten to the hitters, likes half the Blue Jay pitchers and hates the other half (the Jays have a wacky distribution in which between Frasor at 3.77 and Neal at 4.60 there is only Scott Downs at 4.33).

Just to get a head start on the Bavasi bashing, how does Snelling look? And hell, Fruto, too?

262/338/408 for Snelling in Washington, 4.55 for Fruto.

Nothing too outstanding, but obviously better and cheaper than Vidro. Usually after I see what I think is a bad trade, I like to reapproach it a few days later and see if I can see it from the pov of the GM I think made the bad trade. Usually I can sort of see their point. In this case, I'm still dumbfounded. Especially with Broussard's projection.

Interesting that the differential between Jones' 15th percentile projection and his mean is only 9 points of OBP, and 26 points of SLG, while the differential between the 85th percentile and the mean is 48 points of OBP, and 84 points of SLG.

Dan,

Have you thought about posting the raw numbers for runs and hit by pitches so that we could calculate things like projected FIP and LOB%? For instance, on the King Felix pessimistic projection, the rate stats aren't all that different from the mean (per nine innings, it's half a walk, less than half a strikeout, and a third of a home run), but the ERA is a run higher, so it appears that the pessimistic scenario for Felix is that he just sucks at stranding runners again.

It's a different way to do things, certainly. But I'm not sure we want projection systems trying to predict luck, do we? If we assume that luck is person independant and random, theoretically all we should care about is the players ability level and then add in an equal luck variability for all players.

The optimistic model isn't an 85th percentile projection of ability error with normal luck, it's a model of 65th-70th percentile of ability and 65th-70th percentile of luck

I'd kind of be interested in seeing his 85th percentile of ability with normal luck. I'd imagine I'm not the only one who would not be at all surprised if he exceeded this optimistic projection.

Remember when the Mariners were good? Me, too.

That seems like a long time ago now.

Isn't a projection of two home runs for Sean Burroughs a bit on the high side?

It's really too bad. The Mariners are one of those teams that it's nice when they're good.

Speaking of when we were good, and all that...I feel compelled to remind everyone that the Ms traded Carlos Guillen in 2004 to the Tigers for Ramon Santiago and a Juan Gonzalez (no, not that one) who never made it out of the minors. That trade was on January 8, 2004. Bill Bavasi took the GM job in November, 2003.

It's pretty clear Bavasi is a Billy Beane plant inside the Ms organization. There's no other explanation. I suggest we hook electrical cables to Bavasi's shrunken, misshapen testicles and get the truth out, put a hood on his head, have a do a Jesus Christ pose, then kick him out of a moving car along Marginal Way, S.

Just a suggestion.

It's pretty clear Bavasi is a Billy Beane plant inside the Ms organization.

I think of him as a Bill Stoneman plant. Maybe Beane and Stoneman have agreed to trade division titles and have planted Bavasi to guarantee success. Huh? What? tex-us? What's a tex-us?

Top Ten Worst Current GM's?

My list:

1) Bavasi
2) Krivsky
3) Sabean
4) Littlefield
5) Hendry
6) Bowden
7) Colletti
8) Purpura
9) Moore
10) Ricciardi

The last three were hard to come up with. Purpura's on there because of his (Drayton's?) insistence on leaving three sieves in the batting order. Moore's in there because of Meche. JP's in there because, well, I couldn't think of a good one beyond him and decided to be overly harsh on the performance of his "prospects".

We've done this list just recently, but it seems to me that you have to put O'Dowd on this list.

And, not to hi-jack this, but I would rank Colletti much closer to the middle. He seems to alternate between decent trades/signings and really bad ones, but there are many on here that can't even claim that.

That must be a real death match between Bavasi and Krivsky at the top. I hope so. The sooner Bavasi leaves his job, the better, and I really don't care how it happens.

TOMPs* projects the Mariners thusly this season:

22-140, 132 RS, 2113 RA (think about that park-adjusted for a moment), three bad trades for useless veterans, four injuries to promising prospects, five million fans disgruntled, and a partridge in a pear tree.

*TOMPs (Team Overall Metric Projections) are derived by very carefully reaching up my butt, and pulling things out of it.

No way is Sabean worse than Littlefield. I think you have to use the trick of removing a GM's best year and then looking at what's left. Subtract the Bay trade and Littlefield has essentially assembled the Cleveland Spiders.

Heck, I'd rather have Bavasi than Littlefield or Krivsky.

My sober 6 list:

Krivsky
Littlefield
Hendry
Sabean
Bavasi
O'Dowd

It's hard to remember that Bavasi hasn't been all destruction and evil. There has been somewhat of a luck factor in the horrific results of the Freddy Garcia trade and the Broussard trade that I don't fully hold against him.