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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
2007 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Ichiro Suzuki* rf 33 .319 .366 .413 156 675 103 215 19 6 11 56 49 69 32 5
Raul Ibanez* lf 35 .283 .353 .447 144 561 84 159 31 2 19 90 61 101 2 4
Richie Sexson 1b 32 .246 .336 .478 142 521 73 128 31 0 30 98 69 148 1 1
Ben Broussard* 1b 30 .276 .333 .472 139 428 57 118 23 2 19 68 34 105 2 2
Kenji Johjima c 31 .286 .336 .435 125 434 50 124 21 1 14 59 22 40 2 1
Adrian Beltre 3b 28 .275 .333 .446 152 596 85 164 37 1 21 94 48 102 7 3
Jose Guillen rf 31 .260 .327 .449 110 408 58 106 21 1 18 65 28 80 1 2
Jose Vidro# 2b 32 .279 .344 .382 106 387 43 108 22 0 6 40 37 43 0 0
Eduardo Perez 1b 37 .232 .311 .437 95 254 24 59 13 0 13 32 24 55 0 1
Jose Lopez 2b 23 .275 .314 .423 144 556 74 153 32 4 14 79 27 67 5 3
Greg Dobbs* 3b 28 .280 .324 .393 123 407 45 114 18 2 8 51 24 60 8 5
Jeremy Reed* cf 26 .262 .335 .393 115 400 59 105 22 3 8 45 41 52 12 10
Michael Morse 3b 25 .258 .310 .405 101 341 38 88 19 2 9 48 23 67 2 1
Bryan LaHair* lf 24 .257 .313 .385 127 455 46 117 19 0 13 63 36 111 1 0
Hunter Brown 3b 27 .246 .325 .374 115 390 53 96 25 2 7 43 44 82 9 7
Yuniesky Betancourt* ss 25 .281 .305 .392 161 581 67 163 27 7 8 52 22 50 12 10
Adam Jones cf 21 .243 .292 .398 132 460 56 112 20 3 15 56 29 97 10 6
Sean Burroughs* 3b 26 .262 .316 .331 106 381 45 100 16 2 2 32 26 50 3 1
Gookie Dawkins ss 28 .242 .298 .383 91 277 38 67 16 1 7 27 20 67 6 6
Michael Wilson# rf 24 .227 .290 .378 132 458 52 104 22 1 15 58 37 141 3 3
Wladimir Balentien rf 22 .214 .281 .397 129 459 52 98 22 1 20 65 42 146 8 4
Jamie Burke c 35 .248 .298 .348 90 302 30 75 15 0 5 33 19 44 0 1
Jeff Clement* c 23 .241 .297 .344 82 294 21 71 13 1 5 35 18 53 0 1
Michael Garciaparra 2b 24 .253 .317 .320 87 297 41 75 9 1 3 23 26 58 4 5
Willie Bloomquist cf 29 .249 .298 .309 91 233 30 58 9 1 1 18 15 37 11 2
Jose Morban# 2b 27 .212 .271 .356 77 264 35 56 12 1 8 28 19 96 6 5
Oswaldo Navarro ss 22 .226 .294 .302 142 464 39 105 20 0 5 42 42 84 6 6
Jason Bourgeois# lf 25 .236 .283 .312 115 407 48 96 18 2 3 31 25 72 13 8
Tony Torcato* lf 27 .237 .275 .314 108 325 27 77 14 1 3 33 14 40 2 2
Yung Chi Chen 2b 23 .232 .271 .307 129 488 60 113 19 3 4 46 24 79 11 5
Brant Ust 3b 28 .218 .263 .318 98 340 34 74 13 0 7 35 18 95 2 1
Rey Ordonez ss 35 .228 .269 .301 82 272 26 62 15 1 1 23 13 27 1 2
Rene Rivera c 23 .218 .235 .310 73 239 17 52 13 0 3 19 4 43 1 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Jones
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .283 .340 .482 158 562 85 159 33 5 23 91 45 104 17 6
Mean .243 .292 .398 132 460 56 115 20 3 15 56 29 97 10 6
Pessimistic (15%) .237 .281 .372 109 379 42 90 17 2 10 39 22 87 6 5
Top Comps: Ruppert Jones, Bobby Tolan
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
J.J. Putz 30 2.88 4 2 70 0 75.0 64 24 8 17 80
George Sherrill* 30 3.40 5 3 61 0 53.0 44 20 5 19 55
Felix Hernandez 21 3.71 16 10 33 31 199.0 187 82 21 64 175
Julio Mateo 29 3.97 5 4 50 0 68.0 70 30 9 18 44
Eric O'Flaherty* 22 4.35 3 3 57 0 91.0 101 44 7 34 53
Mark Lowe 24 4.44 3 3 50 2 73.0 71 36 9 35 60
Jarrod Washburn* 32 4.45 9 10 29 29 172.0 184 85 23 52 98
Jon Huber 25 4.55 5 5 66 4 91.0 100 46 11 27 52
Miguel Batista 36 4.62 9 9 39 27 185.0 194 95 16 77 102
Jake Woods* 25 4.73 4 5 43 7 99.0 102 52 13 49 67
Sean Green 28 4.79 3 3 45 0 62.0 64 33 6 31 35
Ryan Rowland-Smith* 24 4.92 5 7 37 13 119.0 130 65 14 49 74
Joel Pineiro 28 5.10 8 10 30 25 164.0 185 93 22 56 97
Horacio Ramirez* 27 5.13 6 9 25 24 142.0 160 81 21 50 59
Robert Rohrbaugh* 23 5.15 7 10 24 22 138.0 157 79 23 42 76
Justin Lehr 29 5.16 5 9 44 13 122.0 134 70 19 46 79
Jaime Cerda* 28 5.21 3 4 48 0 57.0 56 33 8 32 48
Sean White 26 5.45 4 9 21 19 119.0 140 72 13 50 51
Josh Kite* 25 5.50 1 1 37 0 36.0 39 22 3 20 21
Michael Wagner* 22 5.54 1 1 34 0 39.0 48 24 6 14 16
Renee Cortez 24 5.80 3 5 37 0 59.0 65 38 9 33 39
Jesse Foppert 26 5.95 2 3 17 15 59.0 61 39 9 42 43
Cha Seung Baek 27 6.02 5 10 23 21 124.0 148 83 27 43 66
Justin Huisman 28 6.10 2 4 35 1 62.0 69 42 11 34 43
Ryan Feierabend* 21 6.21 7 15 35 34 190.0 227 131 40 76 103
Mike Flannery 27 6.30 2 6 50 0 70.0 79 49 11 43 42
Yorman Bazardo 22 6.39 5 11 28 28 162.0 204 115 34 58 70
Cesar Jimenez* 22 6.62 5 12 42 20 136.0 163 100 25 70 61
Travis Blackley* 24 7.22 5 16 28 27 152.0 187 122 41 74 81
Cibney Bello 24 8.61 8 10 32 22 137.0 167 131 39 103 81
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - King Felix
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.01 20 8 35 34 221 192 74 17 63 204
Mean 3.71 16 10 33 31 199 187 82 21 64 175
Pessimistic (15%) 4.78 10 12 28 26 160 165 85 23 61 134
Top Comps: Don Drysdale, Larry Dierker
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
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I think the former. ZiPS simply doesn't like 3 of the last 4 teams in alphabetical order (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle).
The only reason to watch this team in '07 will be to see how fast our GM unloads Putz and King Felix. Rah. Rah.
Oh, I mean 3 of the last 4 teams that have been posted in alphabetical order.
Of the teams I've done that haven't been posted yet, ZiPS is generally positive about the Cardinals (except for the lack of rotation depth) is kinda blah on the Devil Rays and Rangers (but likes both bullpens) and while I haven't gotten to the hitters, likes half the Blue Jay pitchers and hates the other half (the Jays have a wacky distribution in which between Frasor at 3.77 and Neal at 4.60 there is only Scott Downs at 4.33).
Nothing too outstanding, but obviously better and cheaper than Vidro. Usually after I see what I think is a bad trade, I like to reapproach it a few days later and see if I can see it from the pov of the GM I think made the bad trade. Usually I can sort of see their point. In this case, I'm still dumbfounded. Especially with Broussard's projection.
Yeah, that surprised me, too - given his age and skillset, ZiPS sees him as pretty much all upside, the most extreme of the players I've done that for.
Have you thought about posting the raw numbers for runs and hit by pitches so that we could calculate things like projected FIP and LOB%? For instance, on the King Felix pessimistic projection, the rate stats aren't all that different from the mean (per nine innings, it's half a walk, less than half a strikeout, and a third of a home run), but the ERA is a run higher, so it appears that the pessimistic scenario for Felix is that he just sucks at stranding runners again.
As for the stranding runners, I wouldn't doubt that's a part of it. My model attempts to deal with errors due to misevaluation of ability and errors due to luck seperately.
The optimistic model isn't an 85th percentile projection of ability error with normal luck, it's a model of 65th-70th percentile of ability and 65th-70th percentile of luck (65-70 is just pulling it out of my ass, I don't have the actual numbers in front of me at the moment).
ZiPS doesn't see a whole lot of ability downside of Felix.
This is easiest to explain when looking at the optimistic and pessimistic lines for batters - for RBI, I try to model the variability of number (and quality) of runners on base as well as the variability of the actual ability.
Of course, that's all a beta - I might come to the conclusion that I should take a different approach.
I'd kind of be interested in seeing his 85th percentile of ability with normal luck. I'd imagine I'm not the only one who would not be at all surprised if he exceeded this optimistic projection.
That seems like a long time ago now.
It's pretty clear Bavasi is a Billy Beane plant inside the Ms organization. There's no other explanation. I suggest we hook electrical cables to Bavasi's shrunken, misshapen testicles and get the truth out, put a hood on his head, have a do a Jesus Christ pose, then kick him out of a moving car along Marginal Way, S.
Just a suggestion.
I think of him as a Bill Stoneman plant. Maybe Beane and Stoneman have agreed to trade division titles and have planted Bavasi to guarantee success. Huh? What? tex-us? What's a tex-us?
My list:
1) Bavasi
2) Krivsky
3) Sabean
4) Littlefield
5) Hendry
6) Bowden
7) Colletti
8) Purpura
9) Moore
10) Ricciardi
The last three were hard to come up with. Purpura's on there because of his (Drayton's?) insistence on leaving three sieves in the batting order. Moore's in there because of Meche. JP's in there because, well, I couldn't think of a good one beyond him and decided to be overly harsh on the performance of his "prospects".
And, not to hi-jack this, but I would rank Colletti much closer to the middle. He seems to alternate between decent trades/signings and really bad ones, but there are many on here that can't even claim that.
TOMPs* projects the Mariners thusly this season:
22-140, 132 RS, 2113 RA (think about that park-adjusted for a moment), three bad trades for useless veterans, four injuries to promising prospects, five million fans disgruntled, and a partridge in a pear tree.
*TOMPs (Team Overall Metric Projections) are derived by very carefully reaching up my butt, and pulling things out of it.
My sober 6 list:
Krivsky
Littlefield
Hendry
Sabean
Bavasi
O'Dowd
It's hard to remember that Bavasi hasn't been all destruction and evil. There has been somewhat of a luck factor in the horrific results of the Freddy Garcia trade and the Broussard trade that I don't fully hold against him.
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