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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, January 06, 2007
2007 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Albert Pujols 1b 27 .320 .423 .643 151 566 125 181 37 1 48 122 99 57 9 3
Scott Rolen 3b 32 .287 .371 .509 133 481 87 138 37 2 22 93 59 69 4 2
Jim Edmonds* cf 37 .262 .372 .516 123 401 69 105 28 1 24 76 71 121 4 2
John Rodriguez* lf 29 .270 .344 .465 120 333 52 90 20 3 13 52 35 88 4 2
Chris Duncan* lf 26 .266 .346 .457 144 455 68 121 22 1 21 65 55 112 2 3
Brian Daubach* 1b 35 .250 .355 .420 86 276 38 69 17 0 10 41 43 64 0 1
Taggert Bozied 1b 27 .253 .330 .475 54 162 17 41 12 0 8 28 16 32 0 1
Eli Marrero rf 33 .254 .328 .450 67 169 22 43 12 0 7 25 17 38 3 0
Ryan Ludwick rf 28 .247 .316 .459 118 425 42 105 25 1 21 57 38 127 1 3
Ronnie Belliard 2b 32 .273 .331 .397 126 476 58 130 29 0 10 57 37 98 1 1
Scott Spiezio# 3b 34 .245 .328 .394 103 277 35 68 13 2 8 37 31 54 1 0
Larry Bigbie* lf 29 .260 .325 .402 96 311 45 81 15 1 9 40 30 82 4 2
David Eckstein ss 32 .282 .346 .346 127 514 74 145 20 2 3 35 39 44 7 4
Juan Encarnacion rf 31 .265 .315 .405 122 442 53 117 22 2 12 58 28 72 3 4
Jorge Toca 1b 32 .271 .306 .412 84 306 34 83 16 0 9 39 13 61 0 1
Nick Stavinoha rf 25 .266 .308 .402 107 376 51 100 16 1 11 50 22 63 1 1
Adam Kennedy* 2b 31 .273 .332 .366 136 440 52 120 23 3 4 49 34 67 15 7
Preston Wilson lf 32 .249 .308 .396 98 361 41 90 18 1 11 48 27 94 4 2
So Taguchi lf 37 .275 .324 .364 124 305 38 84 16 1 3 35 21 48 9 2
Juan Richardson 3b 28 .253 .313 .386 119 396 42 100 21 1 10 46 31 109 0 4
Aaron Miles# 2b 30 .275 .319 .350 124 426 52 117 17 3 3 35 26 43 6 3
Cody Haerther* lf 23 .252 .299 .390 123 397 45 100 21 2 10 43 27 65 3 3
Timo Perez* cf 32 .251 .307 .367 91 259 26 65 12 0 6 30 19 27 2 1
Skip Schumaker* cf 27 .263 .315 .347 124 415 52 109 19 2 4 27 29 53 12 5
Junior Spivey 2b 32 .214 .321 .330 68 224 24 48 11 0 5 20 31 55 5 4
Bo Hart 3b 30 .233 .288 .337 108 347 50 81 19 1 5 26 23 59 6 2
Michel Hernandez c 28 .243 .310 .301 85 259 20 63 9 0 2 22 24 26 1 1
Tyler Greene ss 23 .222 .283 .329 134 487 61 108 20 1 10 40 35 156 27 5
Brendan Ryan ss 25 .246 .289 .327 69 248 36 61 17 0 1 16 14 30 6 2
Jose Vizcaino# ss 39 .246 .295 .325 91 203 19 50 11 1 1 17 13 27 0 1
Derek Wathan# 2b 30 .238 .274 .348 71 244 27 58 14 2 3 18 11 46 6 3
Yadier Molina c 24 .232 .279 .338 128 423 34 98 21 0 8 53 24 36 1 2
John Nelson ss 28 .204 .274 .338 108 343 33 70 16 0 10 31 30 127 5 1
Reid Gorecki cf 26 .209 .284 .340 101 359 38 75 20 0 9 40 36 92 13 8
Gary Bennett c 35 .224 .292 .305 61 174 13 39 8 0 2 20 16 32 0 0
Ryan Christianson c 26 .208 .266 .322 91 307 26 64 11 0 8 31 23 86 4 1
Desi Relaford# 2b 33 .200 .285 .294 97 310 38 62 15 1 4 26 33 56 4 3
Travis Hanson* 3b 26 .216 .263 .306 133 477 46 103 20 1 7 43 30 96 1 1
Miguel Negron* rf 24 .204 .266 .278 121 485 64 99 20 2 4 35 38 72 10 9
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Albert Pujols
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .345 .453 .689 156 585 148 200 46 2 51 153 115 50 11 2
Mean .320 .423 .643 151 566 125 181 37 1 48 122 99 57 9 3
Pessimistic (15%) .300 .395 .557 133 497 97 149 29 0 33 90 78 55 6 3
Top Near-Age Comps: Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Chris Carpenter 32 3.06 16 6 30 30 209.0 187 71 21 42 170
Adam Wainwright 25 3.45 7 4 71 0 86.0 80 33 10 22 71
Braden Looper 32 3.53 7 4 68 0 74.0 75 29 5 23 43
Jason Isringhausen 34 3.54 5 3 63 0 61.0 50 24 6 30 56
Brad Thompson 25 3.60 4 2 57 5 95.0 95 38 10 26 57
Anthony Reyes 25 3.86 10 7 27 26 154.0 147 66 24 39 130
Josh Hancock 29 3.99 3 2 47 3 70.0 68 31 8 21 44
Josh Kinney 28 4.01 4 4 73 0 92.0 84 41 9 44 72
Russ Springer 38 4.17 2 2 62 0 54.0 50 25 8 19 43
Andy Cavazos 26 4.28 6 5 64 0 80.0 78 38 8 37 59
Jeff Weaver 30 4.28 11 11 30 30 187.0 195 89 25 52 116
Orber Moreno 30 4.29 1 1 18 0 21.0 21 10 1 10 14
Randy Flores* 31 4.40 4 3 51 0 47.0 48 23 5 20 39
Troy Cate* 26 4.42 4 3 41 0 53.0 48 26 7 29 51
Mark Mulder* 29 4.61 10 10 27 27 170.0 179 87 20 66 100
Brian Falkenborg 29 4.65 4 5 50 0 60.0 62 31 8 23 43
Blake Hawksworth 24 4.81 9 10 31 29 176.0 189 94 20 72 98
Jorge Sosa 30 4.97 5 7 37 11 96.0 95 53 15 52 80
Kip Wells 30 4.98 6 9 22 22 121.0 121 67 15 67 91
Ricardo Rincon* 37 5.00 1 2 56 0 36.0 33 20 4 25 33
John Riedling 31 5.06 2 4 42 0 48.0 51 27 5 25 27
Dennis Tankersley 28 5.11 7 9 27 24 148.0 157 84 21 67 91
Matt Perisho* 32 5.11 2 3 42 0 37.0 37 21 5 20 26
Tyler Johnson* 26 5.25 2 3 67 0 60.0 53 35 8 47 63
Randy Keisler* 31 5.25 5 8 33 16 120.0 134 70 16 51 65
Chris Narveson* 25 5.45 5 8 23 22 119.0 126 72 20 60 78
Stuart Pomeranz 22 5.48 6 9 23 23 138.0 161 84 24 48 66
Mike Smith 29 5.49 6 10 30 25 159.0 173 97 24 83 79
Brad Voyles 30 5.64 3 5 14 11 67.0 73 42 15 28 47
Eric Haberer* 24 5.69 7 12 29 28 174.0 201 110 25 79 72
Ricardo Rodriguez 29 5.75 5 8 18 17 108.0 127 69 19 40 44
Dennis Dove 25 5.82 4 7 62 0 82.0 95 53 16 32 45
Will Cunnane 33 5.87 2 3 31 2 46.0 51 30 8 24 30
Chris Lambert 24 6.63 6 15 28 28 148.0 170 109 33 81 96
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Chris Carpenter
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.53 20 5 33 33 235 196 66 18 42 196
Mean 3.06 16 6 30 30 209 187 71 21 42 170
Pessimistic (15%) 3.76 11 8 25 25 170 164 71 22 39 133
Top Near-Age Comps: Mike Mussina, David Cone
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
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Oh, and Dan... Is there any way we could see a ZiPS projection on Wainwright as a starter? I don't know the status on Izzy right now and my assumption is Wainwright's being converted to a starting role this season. Anyone with knowledge of the situation, feel free to fill me in.
Those are nice looking projections for J-Rod and Marrero. ZiPS doesn't like Encarnacion as much as it did a year ago.
This is easily the funniest and most accurate description I've read of Chris Duncan's fielding "ability".
IS MY NEW FAVORITE BASEBALL NAME!!!
Oh, and Dan... Is there any way we could see a ZiPS projection on Wainwright as a starter? I don't know the status on Izzy right now and my assumption is Wainwright's being converted to a starting role this season. Anyone with knowledge of the situation, feel free to fill me in.
I'm actually working on a module to do that kind of thing right now, in order to give me a little more freedom to project pitching role changes better.
I'm also a little surprised that Edmonds projects as well.
Aka RedbirdRay
I suppose that's a question for Dan - what does his "pessimistic" line look like? I'd have to think that Edmonds is at least looking at the edge of the cliff.
Timo and Neifi on the same team? The really amazing thing is that neither would be the worst hitter on the roster, what with Ramon Santiago already locked into a spot. Timo, though, shouldn't have any chance of winning a job out of spring training.
Source: Detroit News
I kinda hoped Zips would have Pu-Pu projected to 581 ABs, but oh well.
Oh, and is Carps the best "take a shot on the guy" luck out of all time? Wow.
Of anything.
And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.
You sure? Have you checked the alternatives? :-)
If Yadier Molina ran and hit with broken knees, could we tell?
Speaking of "take a shot on the guy" guys, mighty Transaction Oracle, could we see a projection somewhere for Chris Gissell? I believe he pitched for Seibu in 2006, which I'd guess means you have a ready-made translator for him. Not that he's special or anything, but it wouldn't surprise me if he looked statistically as good as a couple of pitchers who next year will make 10 or 20 times what Gissell makes in 2007.
I did finish my little start/relief toy. It has Wainwright at 11-8, 3.85 in 166 IP as a starter.
If Reyes, Wainwright and Edmonds meet their projections, the Cardinals are in nice shape.
If Juan E and So combine for 700 AB next year, its not going to be pretty. If JRod starts against RHP, we have a chance.
If Thompson / Naverson fight it out for the #5 slot it may go well. If we dump 10mil into a replacement level pitcher for that slot, not so much.
Marrero looks like a fine alternative, right? ;>)
I doubt the Cardinals were any bigger than 60/40 dogs in any of the series they played.
Seems like you may have a problem with the toy (or Wainwright's relief projection). A pitcher should be projected to have an ERA about .80 to 1.0 higher as a starter than as a reliever. If he's really a 3.85 starter, he should be better than a 3.45 reliever.
Seems like you may have a problem with the toy (or Wainwright's relief projection). A pitcher should be projected to have an ERA about .80 to 1.0 higher as a starter than as a reliever. If he's really a 3.85 starter, he should be better than a 3.45 reliever.
The tool projects most pitchers to have an ERA 20-30% higher as a starter than a reliever. Wainwright's one of the exceptions as none of his periphs decline into the danger zone and his park protects him.
For example, while Wainwright only goes to 3.85, Looper goes from 3.53 to 4.72 and Thompson goes from 3.60 to 4.47.
BTW, could you post a link to a description of the ZIPS methodology?
Because a player whose OPS has declined each of the last two seasons should be considered a good bet to rebound.
I don't think that line worked on me the way it worked for most readers here - but that's because I personally know someone who can solve a Rubik's Cube one-handed while juggling two others with his other hand. Let him use two hands and he can relibably and repeatedly solve a 3 X 3 X 3 cube in under 15 seconds.
I wrote a basic one a few years ago but I can't seem to find it now. I really need to write up a new description - I tend to make the false assumption that everyone reading ZiPS has been involved in every discussion about ZiPS over the last 5 years, which is a pretty stupid assumption.
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