BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2007 ZiPS Projections

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1. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2275459)

Prince Albert is a beast. I like the idea of he and Ryan Howard duking it out for the NL MVP for years to come, although I still maintain I'd give it to Albert every time unless Howard steps up his pitch recognition. It still blows my mind every year Pujols winds up with so few K's.

Oh, and Dan... Is there any way we could see a ZiPS projection on Wainwright as a starter? I don't know the status on Izzy right now and my assumption is Wainwright's being converted to a starting role this season. Anyone with knowledge of the situation, feel free to fill me in.

2. DCW3 Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2275462)

Huh, those aren't bad projections from Rodriguez or Duncan at all--that would still probably make Duncan a pretty bad player, given that he plays the outfield like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes, but it's still nice to have cheap outfield options who project to an .800+ OPS. Which means they'll probably give So Taguchi 500 ABs.

3. greenback

Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2275465)

Everything I've read indicates that the Cardinals would've preferred to leave Wainwright in the pen at least in April, but when it takes 4/40 to sign Jeff Suppan, they recognize don't have a choice.

Those are nice looking projections for J-Rod and Marrero. ZiPS doesn't like Encarnacion as much as it did a year ago.

4. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2275466)

given that he plays the outfield like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes

This is easily the funniest and most accurate description I've read of Chris Duncan's fielding "ability".

5. 8ball Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2275467)

I've always liked Ryan Ludwick, and ZiPs projects him as being a pretty good 4th outfielder. Any chance he sticks on the major league roster?

6. greenback

Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2275468)

Dan, regarding Duncan's projection, have you noticed any difference in the development pattern for rookie LHB versus rookie RHB? I'd guess some LHB get a bit of a bounce from facing LHP less in the majors than they did in the minors.

7. Mike J Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2275484)

Pretty optimistic project for Jimmy Ballgame, imo, I'll take the under on him and the over on Kennedy. I'll also take Molina to blow his projection away with a lofty .245/.295/.365 line.

8. TOLAXOR Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2275485)

"Taggert Bozied"

IS MY NEW FAVORITE BASEBALL NAME!!!

9. frannyzoo Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2275487)

Forget the whims of stupid MVP voters...Pujols is heading toward top five all-time right-handed hitter territory at this rate. And I agree, that K rate is positively Hornsby-esque.

10. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2275493)

That Encarnacion projection makes no sense. It's certainly possible -- he's had seasons like that in 2001 and 2004, though the latter was in Dodgers and the Marlins stadia. But his career SLG is 441, he's been a smidgen above that the last two seasons, and only once (2000) has he had an ISO that low. 265/315/435 I could believe (and it's not a huge improvement over what you've got), but just can't imagine how he could be projected to slug as low as 405 with an ISO of 140.

I'm also a little surprised that Edmonds projects as well.

11. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2275497)

Even without a designated 5th starter, that staff looks pretty darn good. Can't wait to see a sim on this year's ZiPS. Kinda surprised Hawksworth projects better than Narveson. Thompson is underrated by the Cardinal community as a whole.

Aka RedbirdRay

12. OCF Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2275498)

I'm also a little surprised that Edmonds projects as well.

I suppose that's a question for Dan - what does his "pessimistic" line look like? I'd have to think that Edmonds is at least looking at the edge of the cliff.

13. AROM Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2275499)

Since the Cards are getting back everyone from that 2000 trade and need starting pitching, can you run a ZIPS on Kent Bottenfield? :-)

14. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2275511)

Edmonds' slip last year was almost completely against left-handed pitching -- he actually hit righties better in 06 than in 05. I'm curious to see whether last year was an anamoly, or the first (or second) step down a steep decline.

15. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:21 PM (#2275518)

Tigers signed outfielder Timo Perez to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Timo and Neifi on the same team? The really amazing thing is that neither would be the worst hitter on the roster, what with Ramon Santiago already locked into a spot. Timo, though, shouldn't have any chance of winning a job out of spring training.
Source: Detroit News

16. Balkroth Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:34 PM (#2275523)

I'd say there is little to no chance of Ludwick making the team as a reserve outfielder.

I kinda hoped Zips would have Pu-Pu projected to 581 ABs, but oh well.

Oh, and is Carps the best "take a shot on the guy" luck out of all time? Wow.

17. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: January 06, 2007 at 08:46 PM (#2275567)

What, "only" .320 for Pujols? :-) Guy's only hit below .329 once.

18. danup Posted: January 06, 2007 at 10:34 PM (#2275586)

DCW3 that is maybe the best description I have ever heard.

Of anything.

19. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: January 06, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2275588)

Prince Albert is a beast.

You have to love a guy whose "pessimistic" ZiPS gives him a ZiPS that would've been 8th in the NL last year.

20. DCW3 Posted: January 06, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2275589)

You know, I just checked Duncan's card on Baseball Prospectus, and saw that they have him listed at two FRAA in the outfield. Now, I've learned not to trust my eyes too much when it comes to defense, but I like to think that I can still judge the extremes--and, my God, that has to completely destroy whatever little credibility FRAA still has as a stat.

21. NBarnes Posted: January 06, 2007 at 10:54 PM (#2275594)

17: No, that goes to Johan Satana.

22. danup Posted: January 06, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2275597)

I'd definitely take that Edmonds projection.

And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.

23. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2275612)

And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.

You sure? Have you checked the alternatives? :-)

24. danup Posted: January 07, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2275647)

Hey, Gary Bennett may not have a lot of pop, but look at that OBP! Nearly .300!

25. greenback

Posted: January 07, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2275662)

And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.

If Yadier Molina ran and hit with broken knees, could we tell?

Speaking of "take a shot on the guy" guys, mighty Transaction Oracle, could we see a projection somewhere for Chris Gissell? I believe he pitched for Seibu in 2006, which I'd guess means you have a ready-made translator for him. Not that he's special or anything, but it wouldn't surprise me if he looked statistically as good as a couple of pitchers who next year will make 10 or 20 times what Gissell makes in 2007.

26. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: January 07, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2275673)

I did finish my little start/relief toy. It has Wainwright at 11-8, 3.85 in 166 IP as a starter.

If Reyes, Wainwright and Edmonds meet their projections, the Cardinals are in nice shape.

27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 07, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2275685)

Are the Cardinals a better bet to win the 2007 World Series than they were to win the 2006 World Series after having made the playoffs, barely? Inquiring St Louis minds want to know.

28. myst333 Posted: January 07, 2007 at 03:49 AM (#2275699)

A lot of it comes down to Tony. If he reconizes that the kids can do the job and lets them play over people like So, Juan, whatever re-tread comes in to pitch in the #5 slot, then they have a good chance.

If Juan E and So combine for 700 AB next year, its not going to be pretty. If JRod starts against RHP, we have a chance.

If Thompson / Naverson fight it out for the #5 slot it may go well. If we dump 10mil into a replacement level pitcher for that slot, not so much.

29. KJOK Posted: January 07, 2007 at 07:22 AM (#2275743)

You sure? Have you checked the alternatives? :-)

Marrero looks like a fine alternative, right? ;>)

30. Astro-Bonilla Posted: January 07, 2007 at 11:27 AM (#2275772)

Are the Cardinals a better bet to win the 2007 World Series than they were to win the 2006 World Series after having made the playoffs, barely? Inquiring St Louis minds want to know.

Not even close. Because of the variance (or luck or whatever you want to call it) involved in short series-the devil rays take 4 out of 7 (in a row) vs. the red sox and/or yanks just about every year-any team that makes the playoffs has a decent chance of winning it.

I doubt the Cardinals were any bigger than 60/40 dogs in any of the series they played.

31. GuyM Posted: January 07, 2007 at 12:45 PM (#2275778)

It has Wainwright at 11-8, 3.85 in 166 IP as a starter.

Seems like you may have a problem with the toy (or Wainwright's relief projection). A pitcher should be projected to have an ERA about .80 to 1.0 higher as a starter than as a reliever. If he's really a 3.85 starter, he should be better than a 3.45 reliever.

32. GuyM Posted: January 07, 2007 at 02:16 PM (#2275788)

Those other results sound very reasonable. But with 75 IP in relief to work with, we can't possibly know if Wainwright's start/relief gap is more narrow than usual. I guess the question is whether we're saying 1) he's a 3.85 starter (based on minor-lg data), and we're going to project him at 3.45 in relief (sounds reasonable), or 2) we think he's a 3.45 reliever, who will only gain .40 if moved to the rotation (not reasonable). I'm not sure which ZIPS is really telling us.

BTW, could you post a link to a description of the ZIPS methodology?

33. PitViper Posted: January 08, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2276049)

Why does ZIPS think that a 37-year old Jim Edmonds will go from an OPS of .822 to .888, especially considering that his OPS has declined in each of the last 2 seasons?

34. DCW3 Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:27 AM (#2276158)

Why does ZIPS think that a 37-year old Jim Edmonds will go from an OPS of .822 to .888, especially considering that his OPS has declined in each of the last 2 seasons?

Because a player whose OPS has declined each of the last two seasons should be considered a good bet to rebound.

35. bibigon Posted: January 08, 2007 at 08:12 AM (#2276162)

Dan, could you run the starter/relief toy on Papelbon?

36. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 08, 2007 at 09:34 AM (#2276166)

Papelbon's ERA will almost certainly be at least four times higher than it was last year.

37. OCF Posted: January 08, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2276363)

like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes

I don't think that line worked on me the way it worked for most readers here - but that's because I personally know someone who can solve a Rubik's Cube one-handed while juggling two others with his other hand. Let him use two hands and he can relibably and repeatedly solve a 3 X 3 X 3 cube in under 15 seconds.

38. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2276417)

BTW, could you post a link to a description of the ZIPS methodology?

I wrote a basic one a few years ago but I can't seem to find it now. I really need to write up a new description - I tend to make the false assumption that everyone reading ZiPS has been involved in every discussion about ZiPS over the last 5 years, which is a pretty stupid assumption.

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