Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers


Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Mark Teixeira#           1b  27  .287  .373  .541 157 614 105 176 40  1 38 130  81 122  3  0 
AVERAGE 1B/DH------------------- .283  .361  .494 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF---------------------- .282  .354  .469 ------------------------------------------
Mike Young               ss  30  .307  .353  .461 160 685 102 210 44  4 18 101  51  96  7  2 
AVERAGE RF---------------------- .279  .349  .464 ------------------------------------------
Jason Botts#             1b  26  .260  .338  .484 121 419  71 109 27  2 21  78  47 124  4  2 
AVERAGE 3B---------------------- .278  .346  .457 ------------------------------------------
Brad Wilkerson*          lf  30  .251  .353  .460 134 483  85 121 35  3 20  62  75 137  5  4 
Frankie Catalanotto*     lf  33  .291  .364  .420 117 388  48 113 31  2  5  52  40  42  0  2 
Hank Blalock*            3b  26  .273  .336  .461 159 627  90 171 33  2 27 112  59 117  1  0 
Nelson Cruz              rf  26  .266  .335  .465 125 413  59 110 22  0 20  70  40 107 10  5 
AVERAGE CF---------------------- .275  .338  .432 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B---------------------- .278  .336  .418 ------------------------------------------
Adam Hyzdu               rf  35  .247  .341  .419 100 320  39  79 17  1 12  50  44  77  2  2 
Ian Kinsler              2b  25  .264  .325  .439 124 458  77 121 27  1 17  69  40  67 11  5 
AVERAGE SS---------------------- .277  .330  .415 ------------------------------------------
Gerald Laird             c   27  .270  .320  .441  78 256  46  69 15  1  9  33  18  56  4  2 
AVERAGE C----------------------- .267  .328  .414 ------------------------------------------
Kenny Lofton*            cf  40  .292  .350  .367  94 332  77  97 12  5  1  40  30  31 17  3 
Victor Diaz              rf  25  .258  .312  .445 138 488  63 126 26  1 21  79  37 131  6  4 
Miguel Ojeda             c   32  .255  .329  .391  85 184  23  47  8  1  5  26  20  44  1  0 
Will Smith*              rf  25  .262  .312  .418  77 263  36  69 15  1  8  40  18  45  3  1 
Marlon Byrd              cf  29  .251  .323  .396 125 386  48  97 22  2 10  49  33  71  4  3 
Marshall McDougall       3b  28  .254  .306  .423  57 201  27  51 13  0  7  33  14  50  0  1 
Jerry Hairston Jr.       2b  31  .267  .336  .372  98 333  44  89 22  2  3  31  26  40  9  9 
Anthony Webster*         rf  24  .270  .306  .406 140 500  71 135 30  4 10  47  25  65 14  7 
Guillermo Quiroz         c   25  .251  .300  .391  64 215  22  54 12  0  6  34  14  42  0  0 
Dave Berg                3b  36  .256  .337  .328  68 238  37  61 14  0  1  28  26  41  0  0 
Ramon Vazquez*           ss  30  .224  .318  .346  77 205  29  46 11  1  4  25  27  46  1  1 
Adam Morrissey           2b  26  .246  .305  .359  95 329  35  81 17  1  6  37  26  94  1  3 
Joaquin Arias            ss  22  .272  .299  .354 136 525  60 143 18  5  5  53  19  59 16  8 
Matt Kata#               rf  29  .247  .293  .375  97 283  28  70 17  2  5  24  13  47  2  3 
Adrian Brown#            lf  33  .239  .313  .318  87 314  49  75 15  2  2  24  31  53  8  2 
Jason Hart               1b  29  .227  .279  .394 114 388  35  88 23  0 14  50  25  87  0  2 
Freddy Guzman#           cf  26  .260  .332  .328 119 427  63 111 19  2  2  28  44  70 35 24 
Jared Sandberg           1b  29  .212  .277  .367 111 373  48  79 25  0 11  49  31 121  2  1 
Eric Young               lf  40  .227  .321  .308  72 211  29  48 12  1  1  24  24  28  7  5 
Jace Brewer              3b  28  .242  .284  .350  84 277  31  67 13  1  5  29  14  52  1  3 
Aarom Baldiris           3b  24  .233  .278  .333 121 420  45  98 24  0  6  42  23  64  3  3 
Drew Meyer*              2b  25  .240  .285  .315 114 429  51 103 20  3  2  40  26  95  8  6 
Travis Metcalf           3b  24  .211  .262  .322 134 459  49  97 20  2  9  42  31 123  6  4 
Tom Gregorio             c   30  .212  .253  .299  43 137  10  29  6  0  2  18   7  37  1  1 

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Mark Teixeira

Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .302  .399  .595 162 635 124 192 47  2 45 162  97 118  4  0   
Mean              .287  .373  .541 157 614 105 176 40  1 38 130  81 122  3  0
Pessimistic (15%) .262  .340  .471 136 535  78 140 31  0 27  91  62 118  1  0 

Top Near-Age Comps: Kent Hrbek, Tony Clark

Compare Teixeira's pessimistic projection to the rest of the team's mean projections.  
This offense is dead if the Rangers don't lock him up long-term soon.

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Eric Gagne                31   2.61   6   2  55   0    62.0   50   18   5   15   74 
Akinori Otsuka            35   3.09   6   2  70   0    67.0   61   23   5   21   60 
Frankie Francisco         27   3.74   4   3  49   0    53.0   42   22   6   29   63 
Kevin Millwood            32   4.19  13  10  30  30   189.0  198   88  23   51  137 
Ron Mahay*                36   4.29   3   2  56   1    63.0   63   30   7   27   55 
Joaquin Benoit            29   4.29   3   2  62   0    84.0   76   40   9   40   79 
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER------- 4.34 -----------------------------------------------
Scott Feldman             24   4.39   3   3  66   0    80.0   83   39   9   28   51 
Vicente Padilla           29   4.55  11  11  29  29   168.0  173   85  21   61  122 
C.J. Wilson*              26   4.73   3   4  55   0    59.0   60   31   9   24   48 
Brandon McCarthy          23   4.78   7   8  40  17   143.0  145   76  25   38  118
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER-------- 4.89 ----------------------------------------------- 
Wes Littleton             24   4.91   4   5  62   0    88.0   95   48  15   30   55 
Rick Bauer                30   4.95   4   4  44   8    91.0   99   50  11   36   51 
Kameron Loe               25   5.10   8  10  37  21   136.0  153   77  20   48   80 
Willie Eyre               28   5.27   4   5  44   8    94.0  104   55  13   40   56 
John Rheinecker*          28   5.36   7  10  29  25   151.0  181   90  22   49   76 
Mike Wood                 27   5.41   6   8  33  18   123.0  141   74  21   45   71 
Jesse Carlson*            26   5.50   4   6  61   0    72.0   83   44  12   27   45 
Daniel Haigwood*          23   5.54   5   8  28  28   156.0  163   96  22   93  118 
A.J. Murray*              25   5.63   6  10  29  25   147.0  170   92  27   56   95 
Rob Tejeda                25   5.68   5  10  21  21   114.0  115   72  24   64   93 
Franklyn German           27   5.76   2   3  51   0    50.0   53   32  10   31   38 
Armando Galarraga         25   5.87   5   8  23  23   138.0  167   90  29   42   86 
Antonio Alfonseca         35   5.88   1   1  31   0    26.0   31   17   4   11   13 
Josh Rupe                 24   5.89   3   5  36   5    81.0   96   53  15   32   39 
John Koronka*             27   5.90   7  12  27  25   145.0  168   95  25   63   80 
Jeremy Ward               29   5.91   3   5  43   0    64.0   76   42  13   22   35 
Thomas Diamond            24   5.94   6  12  30  30   147.0  154   97  27   89  122 
Edison Volquez            23   6.08   7  13  30  28   157.0  183  106  32   69  114 
Eric Hurley               21   6.14   6  11  27  27   154.0  179  105  33   66  103 
Ryan Jensen               31   6.21   5  10  25  20   126.0  150   87  24   55   74 
R.A. Dickey               32   6.70   5  13  26  20   137.0  173  102  31   54   62 
Francisco Cruceta         25   6.76   6  15  33  28   165.0  190  124  41   86  119 
Alfredo Simon             26   7.43   3   8  32  13    92.0  121   76  24   35   47 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Kevin Millwood
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Optimistic (15%)   3.55  17   8  33  33  213  208   84  22   51  163
Mean               4.19  13  10  30  30  189  198   88  23   51  137
Pessimistic (15%)  5.12   9  10  25  25  153  174   87  23   47  103

Top Near-Age Comps:  Danny Darwin, Lon Warneke

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski Posted: January 09, 2007 at 11:26 AM | 34 comment(s)
  Related News: Texas, ZIPS

Reader Comments and Retorts

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. MSI  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 12:25 PM (#2276840)
Michael Young is looking more and more like "just" a great player, and not a superstar after that career year. His line seems more like 2006 than 2005. Also, I think Gagne can do well too, if he's healthy. Also, with Brandon McCarthy, Milwood and Padilla, they have the semblance of a good rotation. They will improve from the Mccarthy trade,where the White Sox will slightly decline since they unloaded 2 SP candidates. The offence is still pretty good.
   2. Frisco Cali  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 12:41 PM (#2276850)
It's "offense", you damn Canuck.

(Insert hatemail below)
   3. FBI  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 12:58 PM (#2276860)
These projections certainly make the case that Wilkerson should be in centerfield and Botts at DH
   4. Mike J  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 12:58 PM (#2276861)
Rob Tejeda says "ouch".
   5. Shooty Rex  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 12:59 PM (#2276862)
Not a bad looking team, but am I right in thinking that the defense ain't so good? Lofton in center and Young at short make them fairly weak up the middle, no? Still, they look improved over last year. It wouldn't shock me to see them win the West. If Gagne can really throw, then the bullpen looks to be pretty good, too. Looks like it a could be a fun 3 team race in the west with Bavasi locking himself in his office with the lights off and imagining a complex social hierarchy for his Sea Monkeys while making them dance with a pen light.
   6. Toolsy McClutch  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 01:54 PM (#2276896)
Wow, Guillermo Quiroz is still only 25. It seems like he was a stud prospect 10 years ago.
   7. Dan Szymborski  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:00 PM (#2276901)
The Ranger bullpen was quietly pretty awesome last year, enough so that the Rangers had a better team ERA+ last season (102) than team OPS+ (99).
   8. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:07 PM (#2276909)
What, no Antonio Alfonseca joke about what ZIPS projects for him in the category of "fingers"?
   9. Dan Szymborski  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2276922)
What, no Antonio Alfonseca joke about what ZIPS projects for him in the category of "fingers"?

It's a pretty easy projection. You can start with the number of fingers he had in the most recent season (12) instead of doing a 3 or 4 year weighted projection.

Then, you factor in the chances of losing a finger or a hand before the next season (the odds decrease after that because the number of both hand accidents is less than one hand accidents) and you get a projection for him of something like 11.999 fingers.
   10. Frisco Cali  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2276923)
Wow, Guillermo Quiroz is still only 25. It seems like he was a stud prospect 10 years ago

He will have his Chris Coste moment in 8 years.
   11. Too Much Coffee Man  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:30 PM (#2276934)
What do folks think about the possibility of Hank Blalock reversing his career path. He might never hit lefties, but it would be nice to see him going back to tatooing righties.
   12. Der Komminsk-sar  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:33 PM (#2276937)
Quiroz posted excellent opposing SB/CS numbers in (somewhat limited time in) AAA last year.
   13. Nobody ##### with DeJesus  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 02:50 PM (#2276970)
That's a heckuva rebound for Wilkerson.
   14. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2277042)
I like the additions of the league averages in the pitching section. Can we get a league average OPS or something in the batter section, or a line prorated to X number of AB?
   15. J. A. Happenstance (Voxter)  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2277106)
with Bavasi locking himself in his office with the lights off and imagining a complex social hierarchy for his Sea Monkeys while making them dance with a pen light.

Bill Bavasi does not have the imagination or brain power to do this. He'll lock himself in his office with Thundercats reruns and a couple of shiny objects, and spend the rest of the season cackling gleefully while Chris Antonetti secretly interviews for his job.
   16. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..)  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2277176)
I haven't heard the following mentioned before, but it makes intuitive sense. There have to be some ballplayers who juice through college, the minors, and their first few years in the majors, get the big contract, and go off the stuff permanently. Whose careers would this explain?
   17. In the Disney betting pool, Roy Oswalt  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2277193)
How about a line for replacement-level?
   18. Frisco Cali  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2277246)
Sean Burroughs started juicing in 4th grade.
   19. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2277255)
the possibility of Hank Blalock reversing his career path. He might never hit lefties, but it would be nice to see him going back to tatooing righties

Unfortunately, the guy he hits best is Eric Gagne.

I am for once quietly optimistic about the Rangers. For the past few years I have thought .500 was well within their sights. Now I think a playoff spot is well within them. Somebody shake me before this optimism hardens and embitters me.
   20. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2277278)
Rangers have had a good bullpen for the last 3 yrs I think. That Tex projection is looking awesome. They need to get lucky with starting pitching to get over the hump me thinks
   21. NTNgod  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:59 PM (#2277285)
That Nelson Cruz projection is interesting from the sense it has him striking out less in the majors than he did in AAA.

It'll be interesting to see how things pan out if he gets everyday PT.

When Cruz was hitting well at Nashville, and people were asking why Cruz wasn't brought up early last year, the word that would leak in the papers is that the Brewers were concerned his strikeout rate in the minors was too high, and he would have trouble making enough contact to be productive.
   22. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: January 09, 2007 at 08:07 PM (#2277293)
Rangers fans, what do you think of Nate Gold? Does he have a future or should we take his 2006 numbers into little account due to his age?
   23. Dan Szymborski  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 12:52 AM (#2277442)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?
   24. William K.  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 01:08 AM (#2277449)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?


It might help if you moved the position info for the average into the same column as for the players. Reduces the need to look left and then back right. Something like...

Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Mark Teixeira# 1b 27 .287 .373 .541 157 614 105 176 40 1 38 130 81 122 3 0
AVERAGE ----------------1B/DH--- .283 .361 .494 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE -----------------LF----- .282 .354 .469 ------------------------------------------
Mike Young ss 30 .307 .353 .461 160 685 102 210 44 4 18 101 51 96 7 2
   25. William K.  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 01:12 AM (#2277451)
Ooops, guess the cut and paste didn't work but I think you can picture what I mean
   26. guru4u  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 09:29 AM (#2277540)
So, what does everyone think Gagne's chances are of getting those numbers (read as - what are his chances of staying healthy)? It's a perplexing question, because on one hand, he's been injured the last two years - and despite looking great in spring training, he basically did not pitch last year. On the other hand, Texas did pay him some pretty good $$, so they must be satisfied in thinking he'll stay healthy. There's no doubt Gagne can reach the projections if he does in fact stay healthy, but what are the odds?
   27. Pat Rapper's Delight  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 09:56 AM (#2277565)
Rangers fans, what do you think of Nate Gold?

He played his first full season of AA at age 26 after spending all or parts of 4 years in A ball. If nothing else, he had the best individual season in the long and glorious history of the Rough Riders last year.
   28. Mister High Standards  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 10:10 AM (#2277578)
That offense does not look good at all.
   29. 8ball  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 10:56 AM (#2277613)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?


I like it.
   30. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 11:03 AM (#2277620)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?

I like it except that things arent lined up right now. AVG SS line is next to Kinsler rather than Michael Young..
   31. El Hijo del Ron Santo (Alan Keiper)  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 11:58 AM (#2277658)
How about a line for replacement-level?

Ten fingers, obviously.
   32. greenback  Posted: January 10, 2007 at 12:51 PM (#2277707)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?

It's great information. I'd suggest putting all of the position averages at the bottom of the hitters.
   33. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS)  Posted: January 11, 2007 at 06:06 AM (#2278306)
Why is Wilkerson's line below the "Average 3B" line despite having higher OBP and SLG? Is 5/4 SB/CS (or projected GIDP totals, or whatever) really that bad?
   34. Dan Szymborski  Posted: January 11, 2007 at 08:26 AM (#2278343)
Why is Wilkerson's line below the "Average 3B" line despite having higher OBP and SLG? Is 5/4 SB/CS (or projected GIDP totals, or whatever) really that bad?

I assume something like this - DMB does the RC/27 calculations, I just reprint the ranked report.
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Socrates Brito's #1 Platonic Fan (1k5v3L)
for his generous support.

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

2010 ZiPS Projections, Build 2 for Excel 2003 and Diamond Mind 9
(24 - 9:35am, Mar 14)

2007 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves
(22 - 3:40am, Mar 13)

ZiPS Q & A
(10 - 8:26pm, Mar 12)

3 Decades of Minor League Translations
(53 - 11:00pm, Mar 02)

2010 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals
(54 - 8:54pm, Feb 25)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels
(29 - 6:50pm, Feb 25)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
(44 - 8:23am, Feb 25)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers
(27 - 6:43pm, Feb 22)

2010 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
(82 - 2:42pm, Feb 20)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians
(27 - 10:34pm, Feb 18)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox
(41 - 12:38pm, Feb 18)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers
(37 - 7:14am, Feb 18)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles
(73 - 9:28pm, Feb 17)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros
(47 - 7:46pm, Feb 16)

2010 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's
(70 - 2:17pm, Feb 16)
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2008 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

We have baseball tickets, the NFL schedule, college football tickets and Cowboys tickets. We have NBA tickets like Celtics tickets and Lakers tickets. Plus, buy concert tickets, Patriots tickets and Colts tickets. Also check out our MLB baseball schedule

Baseball Bats

JustGreatTickets.com provides the best value for Chicago Cubs Tickets, MLB tickets including Red Sox Tickets, Yankees Tickets, SF Giants Tickets, LA Dodgers Tickets, Cleveland Indians Tickets. Get the best concert tickets like Jonas Brothers tickets and more Chicago Tickets.

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Major League Baseball: All Star Game, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, LA Angels, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, and the Chicago Cubs.

Find terrific deals on Yankees tickets for the new home, Cubs tickets for classic Wrigley, or Red Sox tickets for Fenway with OnlineSeats. We have seats for every baseball game, including Dodgers tickets.

Alliance Tickets has cheap tickets available to all MLB games. We also have tickets to major concerts and theater events. Get tickets to the Colorado Rockies, the Seattle Mariners and all your favorite baseball teams. We also carry tickets to all the major Sporting Events.

Page rendered in 0.7170 seconds
64 querie(s) executed