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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, January 11, 2007
2007 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Frank Thomas dh 39 .255 .370 .522 92 314 51 80 9 0 25 74 53 65 0 0
Lyle Overbay* 1b 30 .301 .374 .491 156 564 82 170 45 1 20 91 66 106 3 2
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b/dh - .283 .359 .498 ------------------------------------------
Troy Glaus 3b 30 .249 .353 .501 142 507 87 126 26 0 34 98 80 137 2 1
Vernon Wells cf 28 .285 .344 .501 150 601 86 171 34 3 30 103 54 89 9 2
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282 .352 .477 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .279 .348 .472 ------------------------------------------
Adam Lind* lf 23 .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .278 .344 .465 ------------------------------------------
Reed Johnson lf 30 .286 .346 .423 130 437 67 125 26 2 10 53 26 81 6 2
Matt Stairs* 1b 39 .253 .337 .441 122 372 42 94 23 1 15 64 45 57 0 0
Alexis Rios rf 26 .282 .333 .444 140 496 69 140 31 5 13 72 37 98 13 5
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .275 .337 .437 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .278 .335 .421 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .277 .329 .418 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .267 .327 .419 ------------------------------------------
Gregg Zaun# c 36 .242 .347 .382 91 285 38 69 16 0 8 39 44 48 1 1
Kevin Barker* 1b 31 .240 .319 .419 136 470 53 113 34 1 16 66 52 133 1 1
Chip Cannon* 1b 25 .241 .303 .442 138 477 52 115 25 1 23 69 38 158 0 1
Russ Adams* 2b 26 .260 .330 .380 141 511 73 133 29 4 8 59 51 62 9 3
Aaron Hill 2b 25 .268 .330 .371 150 529 71 142 29 2 7 56 45 59 2 1
Ryan Roberts 2b 26 .244 .316 .382 116 406 49 99 24 1 10 47 41 105 4 2
John-Ford Griffin* lf 27 .229 .293 .424 105 375 52 86 22 0 17 64 31 111 1 1
Ryan Patterson lf 24 .256 .293 .423 147 546 65 140 35 1 18 73 27 119 4 3
Tony Miller cf 26 .243 .337 .356 97 334 54 81 12 1 8 26 46 101 10 7
Curtis Thigpen c 24 .243 .315 .366 114 399 46 97 24 2 7 39 40 66 3 1
Chad Mottola rf 35 .247 .290 .411 112 409 43 101 23 1 14 54 22 100 3 3
Dustin Majewski* cf 25 .220 .306 .379 136 472 59 104 26 2 15 54 57 115 5 4
Jeff Duncan* cf 28 .253 .325 .353 97 292 40 74 13 2 4 22 27 74 11 8
Royce Clayton ss 37 .263 .315 .351 140 499 56 131 29 3 3 43 37 108 9 4
Rob Cosby 3b 26 .250 .286 .397 122 436 38 109 25 0 13 55 19 94 0 2
John Hattig# 3b 27 .246 .299 .359 99 329 33 81 23 1 4 30 24 104 0 0
Jason Smith* ss 29 .240 .284 .404 91 250 28 60 11 3 8 30 14 70 5 3
Jason Phillips c 30 .236 .288 .351 102 313 28 74 15 0 7 40 20 44 0 1
John McDonald ss 32 .245 .296 .304 77 184 25 45 6 1 1 17 12 27 4 1
Robinzon Diaz c 23 .246 .269 .309 112 414 43 102 16 2 2 36 12 34 4 1
Sergio Santos ss 23 .197 .234 .271 133 483 42 95 19 1 5 35 22 124 1 2
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Lind
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .314 .372 .515 162 577 68 181 48 1 22 104 53 113 2 0
Mean .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
Pessimistic (15%) .272 .319 .415 118 419 37 114 27 0 11 51 28 100 1 0
Top Near-Age Comps: Clint Hurdle, Whitey Lockman
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
B.J. Ryan* 31 2.05 5 1 72 0 79.0 53 18 5 27 107
Roy Halladay 30 3.20 14 6 28 28 191.0 186 68 18 33 124
Brandon League 24 3.38 5 3 69 0 96.0 96 36 6 24 60
A.J. Burnett 30 3.63 13 7 27 27 171.0 163 69 15 54 137
Jeremy Accardo 25 3.69 5 3 70 0 78.0 76 32 7 22 63
Jason Frasor 29 3.77 6 3 67 0 74.0 66 31 8 32 70
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.31 -----------------------------------------------
Scott Downs* 31 4.33 5 5 44 13 108.0 109 52 15 35 82
John Thomson 33 4.47 7 7 24 23 137.0 146 68 14 41 81
Blaine Neal 29 4.60 2 2 37 0 45.0 48 23 7 16 35
Jamie Vermilyea 25 4.67 6 6 36 15 131.0 150 68 18 32 63
Davis Romero* 24 4.70 9 10 36 17 138.0 152 72 21 38 87
Josh Towers 30 4.70 11 11 30 29 176.0 207 92 28 32 92
Casey Janssen 25 4.71 10 11 29 28 151.0 177 79 20 28 75
Gustavo Chacin* 26 4.77 10 11 30 30 166.0 175 88 24 69 101
Matt Roney 27 4.81 4 4 50 0 73.0 74 39 10 25 55
Beau Kemp 26 4.81 5 6 56 0 86.0 92 46 8 33 40
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.84 -----------------------------------------------
Francisco Rosario 26 4.94 4 4 30 15 93.0 97 51 16 37 71
Jean Machi 25 4.94 5 7 45 8 102.0 103 56 11 58 78
Shaun Marcum 25 4.94 7 8 37 23 153.0 165 84 30 47 118
Jesse Litsch 22 5.05 9 11 29 28 171.0 215 96 27 22 81
Ty Taubenheim 24 5.27 7 10 30 25 152.0 176 89 29 43 81
Dustin McGowan 25 5.29 4 6 34 17 114.0 120 67 17 53 87
Kyle Yates 24 5.29 8 10 33 25 165.0 191 97 29 48 95
Josh Banks 24 5.42 8 13 29 29 176.0 210 106 46 23 108
Brian Tallet* 29 5.44 3 5 43 8 86.0 93 52 17 33 54
Ricky Romero* 22 5.50 5 7 23 23 126.0 143 77 23 46 70
Ismael Ramirez 26 5.59 7 11 26 25 145.0 170 90 31 41 80
Jeremi Gonzalez 32 5.70 3 6 29 13 101.0 116 64 21 29 58
Ryan Houston 27 5.74 3 6 46 3 80.0 83 51 13 50 65
Brian Wolfe 26 5.82 3 5 30 5 65.0 77 42 12 23 33
Tracy Thorpe 26 5.88 2 4 61 0 72.0 77 47 16 37 59
David Purcey* 25 6.00 7 12 30 30 156.0 166 104 24 102 116
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Gustavo Chacin
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 4.04 13 10 33 33 187 185 84 23 70 119
Mean 4.77 10 11 30 30 166 175 88 24 69 101
Pessimistic (15%) 5.78 6 11 25 25 134 153 86 25 63 79
Top Near-Age Comps: Ken Brett, Chris Nabholz
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Since I'm done the projections, other than new projections that need to be added,
players are now noted with their current teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA
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Russ Adams is interesting, as those numbers seem obtainable, and at least make him serviceable as a major leaguer. And they are better than Royce Clayton's, but he'd have to play 2b as his defence was atrocious. I also like Chip Cannon's projection, that's some nice power. I'd say its a pretty solid offence, and I think more often than not since its a young talented team there will be guys who perform the "optimistic" one, imo.
This looks like a pretty good team, if they added a pulse for the middle infield they could do something...
At this time a week ago, they didn't have Thomson.
I'll just say my other quibbles. AJ if healthy could go 200 innings, as thats what he was on pace for last year. Halladay last year could have gone more if he was healthy...he said he was bothered with a forearm strain all year. If he could be really healthy again, he could be like the Doc of 2005. Does anyone know if his sort of mild irritation thing is predictive of future injury? I'm not as optimistic on Towers and Chacin and Janssen, but at least one of those will do league average hopefully, but I'm higher on Marcum, and obviously McGowan's upper ceiling is higher, but that could be in 2008 we're talking. Other than that, the bulllpen looks good because it has depth. I mean, if the farm system has anything, then its depth of respectable arms for the pen / back end rotation guys.
Well the Texas projections yesterday had different league average ERAs for both starters and relievers, so I assume it is adjusted for park.
- DMB disk and spreadsheet will be coming out as usual in the next few days, after the Nats are posted. Just finished assigning as many players as I could to their proper teams - as I mentioned above, minor-league free agent signings are reported very inconsistently.
- Josh Towers is really hard to project - he's got such a fine line between awesome control and disaster.
Hills numbers are realistic, not pessimistic. Rios on the other hand, should do better than predicted.
Of course none of it really matters as it appears the Yankees and Red Sox have bought their playoff positions.
The St. Louis Cardinals have something to say to about that.
Really? I think the Jays have a pretty good shot at passing the Red Sox again this year.
dont get it
AJ Burnett would be a considered a great free agent signing if he comes close to this projection. 171 innings is about right.
Linds optimistic projection is sick. I was surprised Toronto was dangling Rios for a trade - now it makes sense.
He's capable of it. This is the guy who led the AL East in ERA in 2005. Remember, he's had bad years before (2002) and bounced back. I'm not saying he will succeed, but it wouldn't surprise me a bit if he did.
If teams carried a designated 'blow-out' pitcher - where HRs don't irritate but walks do - he'd be the perfect guy.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Ted Lilly
-------------------------------------------------------------
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
-------------------------------------------------------------
Projection 12 12 30 30 169 155 80 23 79 148 4.26
Scott Downs
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
ST 4.70 9 9 25 25 142.2 148 74 21 45 103
REL 3.62 4 3 64 0 72.0 68 29 9 24 60
</PRE>
Eve: #32 Halladay jersey...black...
Second time through the league.
Stuff-wise, Towers would be a reasonable comparison.
Jays projected lineup
Findings are here
Reed Johnson +7
Alex Rios +5
Vernon Wells -3
Frank Thomas -23
Troy Glaus -2
Lyle Overbay -10
Aaron Hill +13
Greg Zaun -2
Royce Clayton +4
(Matt Stairs -5
John McDonald +12)
Can you say double play? The Jays led the league in DP last year, had no Frank Thomas, but had Shea Hillenbrand and Bengie Molina. It's pretty much a draw this year.
Lyle is certainly closer to the 'glacial' end of the speed spectrum.
I'd put my money on Prince Fielder in a footrace between the two (Fielder's quicker than you'd expect for a guy with his ample frame).
Reed Johnson +7, .390
Alex Rios +5, .349
Vernon Wells -3, .357
Frank Thomas -23, .381
Troy Glaus -2, .355
Lyle Overbay -10, .372
Aaron Hill +13, .349
Greg Zaun -2, .363
Royce Clayton +4, .307
Is it that bad to have 5 righties to being your lineup?
Johnson, Overbay, Thomas, Glaus, Wells, Rios, Zaun, Hill, Clayton.
Get the slow sluggers out of the way first, and then the fast guys come on...Glaus in front of Wells isn't too bad as Glaus can chug pretty well around the bases. The early guys are station to station types. Reed Johnson gets hit by a pitch to start the game. Overbay smacks a double. And Thomas and Glaus do their thing. Glaus chugs home from a single by Wells, etc. But is Rios enough protection for Wells? I guess not. I like having Frank THomas right behind Wells to ensure some nice pitches.
By the way, can someone give me a decent scouting report as to what makes Ryan so dominant? I know what he throws, and on the surface, it doesn't seem to indicate those sorts of numbers. So how's he do it?
Ta.
Word is that hitters have a hard time picking up the ball. So while he doesn't throw especially hard it appears to be faster than it is. A Stats Inc scouting report.
And I'll take an old school Juan Guzman jersey
Make mine a Jack Elliot Chunichi Dragons jersey...#54
Good luck Josh!
I'm not sure if the Jays are even planning on having Towers in the rotation this year, but if he makes it, what are the odds he pitches exactly 176 innings and allows exactly 92 runs?
Will we win the bet if he pitches 176 1/3 innings?
I'll go with a Ron Santo home jersey. Thanks, Eve!
I've already got my Expos jersey, but you can pay to put a "45" on the back.
On the other side, I don't think that the Jays can afford to trade Reed right now. If they did that, Lind would become the starting LF and who's the backup? Stairs? John-Ford the great? If any outfielder went down, or if Lind didn't hit, the Jays would be toast.
So, if they match their projections, are they better/worse/the same as the Red Sox and Yankees (if they match their projections)?
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_new_york_yankees/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_boston_red_sox/
LF - Ramirez (3), Matsui (2), Johnson (1)
CF - Wells (3), Damon (2), Crisp/Pena (1)
RF - Abreu (3), Rios (2), Drew (1)
3b - Arod (3), Glaus (2), Lowell (1)
SS - Jeter (3), Lugo (2), Clayton/Smith (1)
2b - Cano (3), Hill (2), Pedroia (1)
1b - Overbay (3), Youklis (2), Mientkiewicz/Phelps (1)
DH - Ortiz (3), Thomas (2), Giambi (1)
SP1 - Halladay (3), Matsuzaka (2), Mussina (1)
SP2 - Schilling (3), Wang (2), Burnett (1)
SP3 - Papelbon (3), Pettite (2), Thomson (1)
SP4 - Beckett (3), Marcum (2), Igawa (1)
SP5 - Pavano/Hughes (3), Wakefield, (2), Chacin (1)
CL - Rivera (3), Ryan (2), Piniero et al. (1)
Bullpen - NY (3), TOR (2), BOS (1)
Bench - BOS (3), NY (2), TOR (1)
Based on these very archaic rankings, just for fun, the Yankees have 35 relative points, the Jays 29, and the Red Sox 32. I'm sure that others disagree with my order for some positions.
This makes the assumption that the Cubs aren't retards. I think many would disagree with that particular assumption.
Sure, but there's levels of being dumb. Playing Neifi! over Walker? Pretty dumb. Allowing Dusty Baker to slag most of your young arms? Very dumb. But trading Prior for Reed Johnson and a C pitching prospect is a whole new level of dumb. There'd be no good way to spin this trade. I'm not saying the Hendry wouldn't trade Prior in some awful deal, but this one would never work.
<HENDRY>
While we appreciate what Mark Prior has contributed to the team and recognize his talent, injuries to our pitching staff have been the team's biggest problem over the last few years. We've added a 15-game and a 14-game starter to our staff and with that depth, we felt it was time to acknowledge our needs.
Reed Johnson is a .319 hitter and has proven the ability to play all 3 outfield positions, which provides us additional flexibility on how we use our newest star, Alfonso Soriano, in a manner that Matt Murton does not and helps us recover from the disappointing departure of Juan Pierre.
We wish Mark the best in all his future endeavors and welcome the newest addition to the 2007 World Champion Chicago Cubs.
</HENDRY>
Josh's xERA for the past four seasons:
4.08, 4.16, 3.86, 4.46.
A 4.70 ERA in 2007 should be no problem assuming that he has recovered from the battle scars of 2006.
I have posted and my favorite team is the Boston Red Sox.
Well that's a bold gauntlet to throw down. I know you said the same thing in the Johnson thread but a lot of people would have missed it. Since the Blue Jays are my favourite team this is a bit of a pickle. I would love it if you were right because it would mean that the Blue Jays make the playoffs. So I'm going to pass on this particular opportunity to rail against DIPS and indulge in the fantasy that the Blue Jays win the division with Towers posting an ERA under 4.50.
I don't think that's true at all. Josh Towers not sucking is not enough to put this team over the top. It will no doubt help, and I can understand being optimistic about your favorite team (depending on that team), but Josh Towers posting an ERA of 4.70 for 176 innings in not going to make them the best team in the division.
Gaelen
Are there any pitchers with high BABIP and low strand rates that you think were unlucky? Or do you just assume that they all pitched badly? In seems to me that you believe that ERA is a good measure of how well or poorly a pitcher has pitched, when in reality nothing could be further from the truth. A pitcher's ERA will never give a true indication of his skill if his BABIP and strand rates, which are indicators of luck, deviate significantly from the norm.
Tower's BABIP increased from .310 to .380 in 2006. This is bad luck. His strand rate declined from 74% to 63% in 2006. This is bad luck. He HR% on fly balls went from .09 to .14 in 2006. His strikeout rate went from 4.6 per 9 IP to 5.2. This is a skill improvement that got lost in all the hysteria about his ERA.
Shandler summed up Tower's 2006 season very well. "The blame is threefold. BABIP, strand rate, and hr/f rate all out of his control". Why should we assume that all this bad luck will continue when it wasn't a problem in his previous seasons, until 2006. His xERA gives us a good idea of what his actual ERA should be assuming normal luck.
Zips is also predicting big improvements from Towers and Johnson as are most other projection systems. Are they all crazy? Are you the one who's got it right?
No its not. Not even close. He struck out more batters per 3 outs recorded ONLY because more of the balls in play became hits and not outs. His strikeouts per batter fell from 12.8% to 11.9%.
This is not an improvement, let alone a characteristic attributable to skill in this case. Had his BABIP shot up to 1.000, his K/9 could have increased all the way to 27!
Since his BABIP increased enormously, he faced many more batters per 9 and thus increased his K/9 essentially by default. A better indication of skill would be his K/BB rate, which plummeted from 3.86 in 2005 to 2.06 in his appearances with the Blue Jays this past season. It seems that he could conceivably meet his projection because he performed very well in 2005 and his minor league track record has been quite good, but there really aren't many positives to take away from his 2006 in Toronto.
Well, I actually half agree with this. Josh Towers had an ERA last year somewhere around nine. I agree a substantial amount of bad luck was necessary for him to past an ERA that high. I also agree that he should have no problem improving on that ERA next year. I also agree that ERA is a terrible indicator (especially in a single season) of either a pitcher's real ability or how he actually pitched that season.
What I disagree with is the following. While his BABIP should improve there is no reason to believe it will improve all the way to league average. While his HR/FB rate was really bad and should improve it will not regress towards 10%. xERA substitutes league average BABIP and league average HR/FB rates and I see no reason why you should choose those numbers since there is even less evidence that all pitchers have the same percentage in this area than there is with BABIP. Not all flyballs are created equal. That leaves strand rate. Now here I'm mostly in agreement. In most cases strand rate is completely a function of timing and not skill. However bad pitchers are going to have worse strand rates than good pitchers so if one and two are correct then you can't regress strand rate to the league average either even if there is no particular skill for pitching with men on base.
So I'll sum up my views on Towers. He was extremely unlucky last season. This poor luck caused him to have a season of historic proportions. However, even with bad luck he was still a bad pitcher. Now this doesn't mean it's impossible for him to regain precise command and become average again for a little while. But his margin for error will always be extremely small and when he misses he is going to get hit and I'm betting his BABIP and HR/FB percentage will always be above average. Still there is some room for optimism. If he gets his BABIP down to .320 and cuts his walks in half he can be acceptable.
On the topic of whom I think was truly unlucky with their BABIP and strand rates. That's a tough question because I think you have to see a pitcher to know whether they were unlucky and obviously most pitchers I haven't seen that much. However, for the record, here are some pitchers that I think we're unlucky last year and expect to improve:
Josh Beckett (tough case because he was both lucky (low BABIP) and unlucky (high hr/fb and low strand rates), I think the first is more legit than the second two)
Kyle Davies (another tough case because he got hurt and I have no idea about his recovery, but I believe he's better than he's shown and he fits the criteria of being "unlucky" in every area.)
Scott Baker (any of the young pitchers would be good bets to improve because improve is what young players do. However I've seen Baker pitch very well so I know that he has the ability. I'm not sure what happened to him last year)
Matt Garza (another young pitcher who was both a little unlucky and a good bet to improve legitimately)
It's tough to find guys though because most guys with BABIP over .330 in a significant amount of innings legitmately suck. You won't find me betting on Russ Ortiz or Sidney Ponson.
This is very contrived. It basically says, "I know what I saw so stats be damned". It's because that it's has been statistically shown that the human observation is incapable of discerning good performance from bad peformance in terms of baseball players, and of separating luck from skill that we have developed these metrics to compare performance. Another big problem is that nobody can watch everbody on a regular basis and the way we rate players is to compare them to each other. A good defender or pitcher is only good because he is better than most of his peers. If we don't get to see all of his peers how can we tell without the use of stats the eliminate the impact of good or bad luck if a player is good or not.
Josh was the luckiest man alive. He was signed to a 2 year deal when Ricciardi absurdly bought out two years of arbitration eligibility for a guy with a very inconsistent history, and will likely receive 5 million for the 62 horrible innings he pitched.
How was he 'unlucky'?
Good to see all those wanting a jersey chiming in. How about those who truly believe Towers will toss 176 ip with a 4.70 era agree to pay just $10 to the United Way, or similar secular charity if he doesn't. That's about 10-1 odds. Honor system. That way everyone can enjoy the opportunity to put their money where their mouth is. We'll have the thread at season's end to help remind us all.
IP 1007.1
W 56-46
ERA 3.96
K/9 6.48
BB/9 1.30
HR/9 1.02
H/9 9.91
WHIP 1.25
A black Halladay jersey, #32.
And I'm making a donation to the United Way in advance.
Oh, about the projections...I think Thomas will hit more than 25 HR.
BJ Ryan: 1/29 = 3.5% - (Why Justin Speier's ERA was so good, considering his 47% IR scored)
Brandon League: 4/9 = 44% - (is this a small sample size? Hopefully he can be lights with IR too)
Jeremy Accardo: 13/31 = 42% - (also not good considering
Scott Downs: 11/39 = 28% (very very solid. He was horrible as a spot starter last year. As reliever had a 2.77 ERA...9.39 ERA as starter)
Jason Frasor: 18/37 = 49% (pretty bad, but he came back late in the year with a new slider and no curve, and he can throw hard).
Davis Romero: 0/7 = 0% (I really hope he makes the team over Tallet. Please God?)
Brian Tallet: 13/44 = 30% (not bad, but...)
Rosario: 0/4 = 0% (his stats in the majors were bad last year, but good in AAA. With his heat and solid 2 pitches, I think he can be a good part of the pen).
McGowan: 5/9 = 55%
Josh Towers: 0/2 = 0%
Ty Taubenheim: 0/2 = 0%
would love a Tigers home, Granderson #28!
I'd probably go Liriano or Lind.
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