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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, January 11, 2007
2007 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Frank Thomas dh 39 .255 .370 .522 92 314 51 80 9 0 25 74 53 65 0 0
Lyle Overbay* 1b 30 .301 .374 .491 156 564 82 170 45 1 20 91 66 106 3 2
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b/dh - .283 .359 .498 ------------------------------------------
Troy Glaus 3b 30 .249 .353 .501 142 507 87 126 26 0 34 98 80 137 2 1
Vernon Wells cf 28 .285 .344 .501 150 601 86 171 34 3 30 103 54 89 9 2
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282 .352 .477 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .279 .348 .472 ------------------------------------------
Adam Lind* lf 23 .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .278 .344 .465 ------------------------------------------
Reed Johnson lf 30 .286 .346 .423 130 437 67 125 26 2 10 53 26 81 6 2
Matt Stairs* 1b 39 .253 .337 .441 122 372 42 94 23 1 15 64 45 57 0 0
Alexis Rios rf 26 .282 .333 .444 140 496 69 140 31 5 13 72 37 98 13 5
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .275 .337 .437 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .278 .335 .421 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .277 .329 .418 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .267 .327 .419 ------------------------------------------
Gregg Zaun# c 36 .242 .347 .382 91 285 38 69 16 0 8 39 44 48 1 1
Kevin Barker* 1b 31 .240 .319 .419 136 470 53 113 34 1 16 66 52 133 1 1
Chip Cannon* 1b 25 .241 .303 .442 138 477 52 115 25 1 23 69 38 158 0 1
Russ Adams* 2b 26 .260 .330 .380 141 511 73 133 29 4 8 59 51 62 9 3
Aaron Hill 2b 25 .268 .330 .371 150 529 71 142 29 2 7 56 45 59 2 1
Ryan Roberts 2b 26 .244 .316 .382 116 406 49 99 24 1 10 47 41 105 4 2
John-Ford Griffin* lf 27 .229 .293 .424 105 375 52 86 22 0 17 64 31 111 1 1
Ryan Patterson lf 24 .256 .293 .423 147 546 65 140 35 1 18 73 27 119 4 3
Tony Miller cf 26 .243 .337 .356 97 334 54 81 12 1 8 26 46 101 10 7
Curtis Thigpen c 24 .243 .315 .366 114 399 46 97 24 2 7 39 40 66 3 1
Chad Mottola rf 35 .247 .290 .411 112 409 43 101 23 1 14 54 22 100 3 3
Dustin Majewski* cf 25 .220 .306 .379 136 472 59 104 26 2 15 54 57 115 5 4
Jeff Duncan* cf 28 .253 .325 .353 97 292 40 74 13 2 4 22 27 74 11 8
Royce Clayton ss 37 .263 .315 .351 140 499 56 131 29 3 3 43 37 108 9 4
Rob Cosby 3b 26 .250 .286 .397 122 436 38 109 25 0 13 55 19 94 0 2
John Hattig# 3b 27 .246 .299 .359 99 329 33 81 23 1 4 30 24 104 0 0
Jason Smith* ss 29 .240 .284 .404 91 250 28 60 11 3 8 30 14 70 5 3
Jason Phillips c 30 .236 .288 .351 102 313 28 74 15 0 7 40 20 44 0 1
John McDonald ss 32 .245 .296 .304 77 184 25 45 6 1 1 17 12 27 4 1
Robinzon Diaz c 23 .246 .269 .309 112 414 43 102 16 2 2 36 12 34 4 1
Sergio Santos ss 23 .197 .234 .271 133 483 42 95 19 1 5 35 22 124 1 2
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Lind
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .314 .372 .515 162 577 68 181 48 1 22 104 53 113 2 0
Mean .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
Pessimistic (15%) .272 .319 .415 118 419 37 114 27 0 11 51 28 100 1 0
Top Near-Age Comps: Clint Hurdle, Whitey Lockman
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
B.J. Ryan* 31 2.05 5 1 72 0 79.0 53 18 5 27 107
Roy Halladay 30 3.20 14 6 28 28 191.0 186 68 18 33 124
Brandon League 24 3.38 5 3 69 0 96.0 96 36 6 24 60
A.J. Burnett 30 3.63 13 7 27 27 171.0 163 69 15 54 137
Jeremy Accardo 25 3.69 5 3 70 0 78.0 76 32 7 22 63
Jason Frasor 29 3.77 6 3 67 0 74.0 66 31 8 32 70
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.31 -----------------------------------------------
Scott Downs* 31 4.33 5 5 44 13 108.0 109 52 15 35 82
John Thomson 33 4.47 7 7 24 23 137.0 146 68 14 41 81
Blaine Neal 29 4.60 2 2 37 0 45.0 48 23 7 16 35
Jamie Vermilyea 25 4.67 6 6 36 15 131.0 150 68 18 32 63
Davis Romero* 24 4.70 9 10 36 17 138.0 152 72 21 38 87
Josh Towers 30 4.70 11 11 30 29 176.0 207 92 28 32 92
Casey Janssen 25 4.71 10 11 29 28 151.0 177 79 20 28 75
Gustavo Chacin* 26 4.77 10 11 30 30 166.0 175 88 24 69 101
Matt Roney 27 4.81 4 4 50 0 73.0 74 39 10 25 55
Beau Kemp 26 4.81 5 6 56 0 86.0 92 46 8 33 40
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.84 -----------------------------------------------
Francisco Rosario 26 4.94 4 4 30 15 93.0 97 51 16 37 71
Jean Machi 25 4.94 5 7 45 8 102.0 103 56 11 58 78
Shaun Marcum 25 4.94 7 8 37 23 153.0 165 84 30 47 118
Jesse Litsch 22 5.05 9 11 29 28 171.0 215 96 27 22 81
Ty Taubenheim 24 5.27 7 10 30 25 152.0 176 89 29 43 81
Dustin McGowan 25 5.29 4 6 34 17 114.0 120 67 17 53 87
Kyle Yates 24 5.29 8 10 33 25 165.0 191 97 29 48 95
Josh Banks 24 5.42 8 13 29 29 176.0 210 106 46 23 108
Brian Tallet* 29 5.44 3 5 43 8 86.0 93 52 17 33 54
Ricky Romero* 22 5.50 5 7 23 23 126.0 143 77 23 46 70
Ismael Ramirez 26 5.59 7 11 26 25 145.0 170 90 31 41 80
Jeremi Gonzalez 32 5.70 3 6 29 13 101.0 116 64 21 29 58
Ryan Houston 27 5.74 3 6 46 3 80.0 83 51 13 50 65
Brian Wolfe 26 5.82 3 5 30 5 65.0 77 42 12 23 33
Tracy Thorpe 26 5.88 2 4 61 0 72.0 77 47 16 37 59
David Purcey* 25 6.00 7 12 30 30 156.0 166 104 24 102 116
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Gustavo Chacin
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 4.04 13 10 33 33 187 185 84 23 70 119
Mean 4.77 10 11 30 30 166 175 88 24 69 101
Pessimistic (15%) 5.78 6 11 25 25 134 153 86 25 63 79
Top Near-Age Comps: Ken Brett, Chris Nabholz
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Since I'm done the projections, other than new projections that need to be added,
players are now noted with their current teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 11, 2007 at 08:01 PM | 120 comment(s)
Related News: Toronto, ZIPS
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And who's backing up Zaun this year? Phillips? Seems like a pretty big drop after the last few years.
Now that's a bit much.
Goodness what a year. And he made those two catches.
If it were real, I'd totally ask for a game-used 1903 Ed Delahanty Washington jersey, signed by all 5 Delahanty brothers.
Current would be Doc. Classic would be Old Hoss Radbourne... probably Providence.
Thats mgl with the 10k bets.
Or alternatively, given that you'll never find it, a Tony Fernandez #1 will do fine.
Or alternatively, since you'll never find it, I'll take a Tony Fernandez #1.
Post-Doobie Brothers, or with Doobie Brothers?
"Hi! I'm Hollywood Steve. You've caught me making love. Tonight's thread is about a gentleman's wager that took ten years, a pop music revolution, and 300 baseball jerseys to settle."
Blue Jays with a #50 please.
Best Regards
John
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