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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, January 11, 2007
2007 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Nick Johnson* 1b 28 .285 .414 .482 137 467 81 133 39 1 17 67 95 89 6 4
Ryan Zimmerman 3b 22 .303 .362 .505 153 574 86 174 49 2 21 95 53 107 7 7
Ryan Church* cf 28 .271 .356 .468 124 365 52 99 23 2 15 59 45 89 5 1
Austin Kearns rf 27 .261 .353 .467 139 495 78 129 32 2 22 76 65 129 5 3
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .268 .346 .453 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .267 .339 .443 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .264 .334 .428 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .263 .331 .421 ------------------------------------------
Felipe Lopez# ss 27 .269 .346 .394 153 591 91 159 29 3 13 60 70 122 26 9
Chris Snelling* cf 25 .262 .338 .408 92 309 44 81 17 2 8 41 30 66 4 4
Larry Broadway* 1b 26 .258 .321 .421 122 423 47 109 22 1 15 61 38 95 3 1
Alex Escobar cf 28 .256 .319 .413 81 281 36 72 13 2 9 37 23 78 2 2
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .261 .323 .402 ------------------------------------------
Kory Casto* 3b 25 .240 .326 .389 146 488 59 117 27 2 14 59 59 107 4 4
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .264 .321 .388 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .263 .315 .384 ------------------------------------------
D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 29 .246 .333 .352 111 386 50 95 21 1 6 41 50 57 7 4
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .252 .312 .383 ------------------------------------------
Michael Restovich rf 28 .235 .295 .414 125 408 57 96 21 2 16 55 31 111 2 1
Abraham Nunez# rf 30 .237 .315 .367 96 316 43 75 15 1 8 43 35 68 3 3
Danny Ardoin c 32 .237 .325 .350 95 240 35 57 12 0 5 23 25 88 0 1
Darnell McDonald cf 28 .251 .308 .374 113 414 46 104 25 1 8 34 31 98 10 6
Brian Schneider* c 30 .253 .317 .347 124 403 33 102 18 1 6 45 36 66 1 1
Robert Fick* 1b 33 .246 .317 .341 70 179 18 44 6 1 3 19 18 28 1 0
Joey Thurston* 2b 27 .257 .309 .375 130 421 47 108 22 5 6 36 28 59 8 7
Bernie Castro# 2b 27 .266 .316 .320 116 406 55 108 13 3 1 28 28 49 21 6
Juan Brito c 27 .244 .296 .362 78 246 30 60 11 0 6 28 17 54 1 1
Josh Wilson ss 26 .243 .301 .361 126 449 60 109 22 2 9 41 36 97 11 8
Frank Diaz cf 23 .248 .276 .368 132 487 53 121 29 1 9 46 17 69 6 6
Nook Logan# cf 27 .247 .298 .329 115 368 52 91 14 5 2 21 25 81 23 13
Tony Blanco rf 25 .208 .272 .339 60 168 16 35 7 0 5 19 8 41 1 0
Jesus Flores c 22 .214 .263 .355 146 504 45 108 29 0 14 53 26 155 1 1
Cristian Guzman# ss 29 .240 .279 .327 138 495 58 119 23 4 4 38 27 74 6 4
Melvin Dorta ss 25 .239 .278 .322 129 422 47 101 18 1 5 30 23 37 21 12
Wayne Lydon cf 26 .234 .285 .312 143 535 65 125 16 7 4 36 37 128 30 18
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Ryan Zimmerman
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .325 .391 .568 162 609 106 198 58 3 28 125 66 98 10 6
Mean .303 .362 .505 153 574 86 174 49 2 21 95 53 107 7 7
Pessimistic (15%) .285 .338 .452 129 484 62 138 37 1 14 66 39 97 4 7
Top Near-Age Comps: Adrian Beltre, Freddie Lindstrom
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Chad Cordero 25 3.26 7 3 74 0 80.0 67 29 12 26 76
Luis Ayala 29 3.34 8 5 58 0 62.0 67 23 5 14 42
Jon Rauch 28 3.67 4 2 65 0 76.0 69 31 10 28 66
Micah Bowie* 32 3.70 2 1 41 0 56.0 49 23 3 31 44
John Patterson 29 3.82 7 5 25 25 146.0 135 62 18 53 130
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 3.88 -----------------------------------------------
Jermaine van Buren 26 4.21 3 3 54 0 62.0 54 29 5 34 52
Shawn Hill 26 4.27 7 6 19 19 99.0 108 47 8 29 50
Saul Rivera 29 4.28 3 2 53 1 80.0 82 38 7 36 51
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.37 -----------------------------------------------
Billy Traber* 27 4.50 9 10 32 26 158.0 174 79 18 41 88
Beltran Perez 25 4.53 7 7 39 13 129.0 134 65 15 54 80
Emiliano Fruto 23 4.55 4 5 59 1 95.0 89 48 11 49 76
Michael O'Connor* 26 4.56 8 9 27 26 156.0 160 79 23 57 103
Ray King* 33 4.60 3 3 73 0 47.0 51 24 4 20 26
Brett Campbell 25 4.62 4 5 58 0 76.0 77 39 9 34 56
Matt Chico* 24 4.63 9 10 30 30 177.0 186 91 27 59 127
Ryan Wagner 24 4.71 3 3 55 0 63.0 67 33 7 28 44
Garrett Mock 24 4.72 9 10 29 29 183.0 198 96 26 56 126
Jason Bergmann 25 4.72 5 6 55 8 120.0 125 63 18 46 94
Levale Speigner 26 4.89 3 4 46 0 70.0 78 38 10 23 35
Chris Booker 30 5.02 3 4 53 0 61.0 54 34 10 39 75
Tim Redding 29 5.04 8 11 28 25 159.0 168 89 22 56 90
Arnie Munoz* 25 5.05 6 8 35 12 107.0 105 60 16 45 94
Josh Hall 26 5.16 6 11 26 26 157.0 174 90 23 54 79
Jim Magrane 28 5.17 7 12 26 22 148.0 171 85 20 52 74
Jesus Colome 29 5.19 2 3 40 0 52.0 55 30 7 25 33
Joel Hanrahan 25 5.23 7 9 26 25 136.0 133 79 19 78 96
Colby Lewis 27 5.28 5 8 25 23 150.0 176 88 25 46 70
Felix Diaz 26 5.30 7 8 48 22 107.0 117 63 14 26 88
Mike Bacsik* 29 5.43 4 10 31 18 126.0 144 76 24 30 70
Chris Schroder 28 5.54 2 5 38 0 52.0 56 32 10 26 39
Winston Abreu 30 5.95 3 7 46 1 65.0 67 43 14 35 60
Bill White* 28 6.11 0 2 52 0 56.0 58 38 8 39 46
Chris Michalak* 36 6.40 5 14 31 23 149.0 184 106 35 45 68
Mike Hinckley* 24 6.52 4 10 27 27 167.0 207 121 29 80 62
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Matt Chico
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.78 12 9 33 33 200 194 84 24 58 155
Mean 4.63 9 10 30 30 177 186 91 27 59 127
Pessimistic (15%) 5.54 6 10 25 25 143 163 88 26 53 97
Top Near-Age Comps: Dave McNally, Dave Fleming
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Since I'm done the projections, other than new projections that need to be added,
players are now noted with their current teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:41 PM | 27 comment(s)
Related News: Washington, ZIPS
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The average CF line must have gotten messed up. There's no way he's a better hitter than the average 3B.
But ZiPS certainly likes the Nats front-end position talent. And it should - Johnson/Zimmerman/Church/Kearns/Lopez is a pretty good offensive core. Predicably, the Nats are finding ways to sabotage this immediately, with Acta already stating that Nook Logan goes into the spring as the starting CF.
Bibi - I might have put a line or two out of order (well, not might, did), so I'll h ave to fix that.
Chris Snelling .262 .338 .408Jose Vidro .279 .344 .382
Nice trade, Bill.
No, you're looking at the gap between parks. RFK is a very low-offense park, Skydome is not.
I think Dan uses RC/27 to rank them- result is not always the same as OPS or OPS+
RC/27 culd also be using sb/cs/gdp/sh/sf info.
Gordon .275/.361/.473 (6.2 RC27)
Zimm .303/.362/.505 (6.5 RC27)
Zimmerman's looking good. I don't buy Gordon will be stealing 15 bags in the bigs, either.
Anybody see him getting better (or already being) than David Wright? How would you compare/contrast the two?
Any team that has Nook Logan as the top CF on its organizational depth chart while dangling Ryan Church in a few trade talks just doesn't get it.
If Guzman's the starting SS, does that mean Lopez starts at 2B?
He is probably a better player than David Wright right now if their defensive ratings are reasonable estimates of their abilities.
It's kind of amazing that David Wright is probably the only the 3rd best at the position in the division. He might also be the 3rd best in baseball, but that's another matter.
It looks like that's the plan. Here's an excerpt from an mlb.com article last week:
"By trading second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners and announcing that Felipe Lopez will switch from shortstop to second base, the Nationals sent a strong message to the public that Cristian Guzman has recovered from his right shoulder injury and will be their regular shortstop in 2007."
4th.
Funny. Only way, you can make Wright 4th is if you contort your set of standards each time. Wright is the best of the group in all around sets of skills, so there's almost no way to drop him vis-a-vis the other 3. Zimmerman is maturing as Larry is aging.
I'll take Zimmerman and Cabrera.
Me too.
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