BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2007 ZiPS Projections

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1. Dan The Mediocre Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2279104)

Can you add the league average thing to all the previous teams? I'd like to see how many Cubs starters are below average.

2. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:12 AM (#2279116)

Why is .263/.331/.421 a better line than .270/.333/.421 - for that matter, why is .258/.321/.421 better either?

3. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:12 AM (#2279117)

I guess you weren't lying when you implied that ZiPS likes the Nationals. The offense is definitely better than expected, Cristian Guzman notwithstanding. Is that the single worst projection for a probable starting position player ever? Now that you've added the league averages, could you put in some sort of "worst ever" line for perspective on Guzman? The 22-year-old Rule 5 catcher from the Mets is above him.

4. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:35 AM (#2279127)

Why is .263/.331/.421 a better line than .270/.333/.421 - for that matter, why is .258/.321/.421 better either?

The average CF line must have gotten messed up. There's no way he's a better hitter than the average 3B.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:39 AM (#2279129)

I actually didn't mean to imply ZiPS like the Nationals. When I said ZiPS had hated 3 of the last 4 teams alphabetically, I meant 3 of the last 4 teams posted alphabetically up to that point. I hadn't even done the Nats by that point.

But ZiPS certainly likes the Nats front-end position talent. And it should - Johnson/Zimmerman/Church/Kearns/Lopez is a pretty good offensive core. Predicably, the Nats are finding ways to sabotage this immediately, with Acta already stating that Nook Logan goes into the spring as the starting CF.

Bibi - I might have put a line or two out of order (well, not might, did), so I'll h ave to fix that.

6. Spute Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:54 AM (#2279202)

Is the league average gap between the American and National league really this large?

7. NBarnes Posted: January 12, 2007 at 01:23 PM (#2279226)

Chris Snelling is not a CF, much as we here in Seattle miss him. Also, how 'bout that Kearns trade? And that Zimmerman kid can hit a bit.

Chris Snelling .262  .338  .408

Jose Vidro .279  .344  .382

Nice trade, Bill.

8. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 12, 2007 at 01:39 PM (#2279230)

Is the league average gap between the American and National league really this large?

No, you're looking at the gap between parks. RFK is a very low-offense park, Skydome is not.

9. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:01 PM (#2279238)

Think I'll take the under on the Patterson projected 146 IP. I just traded Pedro Feliz for him in a Roto league so I'm hoping for the over but his right arm is pretty shredded at this point.

10. TOLAXOR Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:41 PM (#2279263)

IS IT ZIPS OR WASHINGTON THAT DOESN'T LIKE LF???!!!

11. JPWF13

Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2279271)

Why is .263/.331/.421 a better line than .270/.333/.421 - for that matter, why is .258/.321/.421 better either?

I think Dan uses RC/27 to rank them- result is not always the same as OPS or OPS+
RC/27 culd also be using sb/cs/gdp/sh/sf info.

12. a wider scope of derision Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2279406)

Let the games begin:

Gordon .275/.361/.473 (6.2 RC27)
Zimm .303/.362/.505 (6.5 RC27)

Zimmerman's looking good. I don't buy Gordon will be stealing 15 bags in the bigs, either.

13. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2279500)

If Zimmerman hits 58 doubles I'll have my first bit of respect for this team since they moved from Montreal.
Anybody see him getting better (or already being) than David Wright? How would you compare/contrast the two?

Any team that has Nook Logan as the top CF on its organizational depth chart while dangling Ryan Church in a few trade talks just doesn't get it.

14. Nobody ##### with DeJesus Posted: January 12, 2007 at 07:23 PM (#2279536)

The offense is definitely better than expected, Cristian Guzman notwithstanding. Is that the single worst projection for a probable starting position player ever?

If Guzman's the starting SS, does that mean Lopez starts at 2B?

15. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 07:37 PM (#2279553)

Anybody see him getting better (or already being) than David Wright? How would you compare/contrast the two?

He is probably a better player than David Wright right now if their defensive ratings are reasonable estimates of their abilities.

It's kind of amazing that David Wright is probably the only the 3rd best at the position in the division. He might also be the 3rd best in baseball, but that's another matter.

16. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 12, 2007 at 07:49 PM (#2279565)

Don't wake up the Met fans!

17. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:13 PM (#2279594)

If Guzman's the starting SS, does that mean Lopez starts at 2B?

It looks like that's the plan. Here's an excerpt from an mlb.com article last week:

"By trading second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners and announcing that Felipe Lopez will switch from shortstop to second base, the Nationals sent a strong message to the public that Cristian Guzman has recovered from his right shoulder injury and will be their regular shortstop in 2007."

18. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 13, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2280117)

It's kind of amazing that David Wright is probably the only the 3rd best at the position in the division.

4th.

19. Raskolnikov Posted: January 13, 2007 at 07:05 PM (#2280137)

4th.

Funny. Only way, you can make Wright 4th is if you contort your set of standards each time. Wright is the best of the group in all around sets of skills, so there's almost no way to drop him vis-a-vis the other 3. Zimmerman is maturing as Larry is aging.

20. ian Posted: January 13, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2280141)

Funny. Only way, you can make Wright 4th is if you contort your set of standards each time. Wright is the best of the group in all around sets of skills

I'll take Zimmerman and Cabrera.

21. NJ is feeling better Posted: January 13, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2280163)

I'll take Zimmerman and Cabrera.

Me too.

22. Astro-Bonilla Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:06 AM (#2280241)

"By trading second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners and announcing that Felipe Lopez will switch from shortstop to second base, the Nationals sent a strong message to the public that they are more likely to land on Mars this season than they are to win the Nl East.

23. Astro-Bonilla Posted: January 19, 2007 at 10:28 PM (#2283338)

Does anybody know why Ryan Church is still a National? They have no disposition towards actually using him, and I'm sure a lot of smart GMs would love to have him.

24. jgang01 Posted: February 13, 2007 at 05:30 PM (#2296887)

how is larry broadway going to hit all these hrs when he's out for the year?

25. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 13, 2007 at 08:43 PM (#2297020)

Think we should have a name the Nationals 5 man starting rotation contest out of spring training. Besides Patterson is anyone pretty much guarenteed a spot?

26. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: February 14, 2007 at 07:02 AM (#2297445)

Jerome Williams unless he shows up weighing 325 lbs. It's time for him to show what he has.

27. BlastingsThrilledge Posted: February 18, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2299616)

Broadway isnt out for the year, infact, he will probably be the starting 1b for the first two months of the season.

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