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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
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Monday, September 22, 2008
2008 Minor League Park Multipliers
Thanks to data provided me from Jeff Sackmann of Minor League Splits, I can now present the 2008 Minor League park multipliers for all regular full-season leagues and the two advanced short-season leagues. Data is presented on a per/PA basis. FirstInning.com has per/BIP basis covered already.2008 Multipliers are, not suprisingly, the multipliers for the 2008 season. As I remind every years, when I use the term "multiplier" I'm already taking into account road games, so the number does not have to sent hurdling halfway to 1.00 in order to apply to various minor league stats. 3-year data is weighted on a 4-3-2 basis, with the most recent season being 4. Because of the error present in 1-year park data, 3-year numbers for teams in parks that did not exist in previous seasons are regressed towards 1.00. So, for instance, the 3-year run multiplier for the Lehigh Valley TrademarkDiluters will be closer to 1.00 than the 2008 data.
2008
R H 2B HR BB K
Aberdeen 0.98 0.99 0.97 1.13 1.04 1.03
Akron 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.88 1.00 0.97
Albuquerque 1.18 1.13 1.08 1.14 0.91 0.94
Altoona 0.95 1.01 0.96 0.88 0.99 0.95
Arkansas 0.93 0.97 0.93 0.88 0.96 0.98
Asheville 1.07 1.04 1.08 1.15 1.02 0.98
Auburn 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.00 1.08 1.04
Augusta 0.97 0.96 0.91 0.79 1.10 1.03
Bakersfield 0.97 0.97 1.00 1.14 1.04 1.03
Batavia 1.04 0.99 1.10 0.92 0.98 0.99
Beloit 1.04 1.02 1.11 1.00 1.05 1.01
Binghamton 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.09 1.03 0.98
Birmingham 0.92 0.97 0.87 0.82 0.97 1.03
Boise 1.05 1.05 0.90 1.11 0.93 0.89
Bowie 0.96 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.00
Brevard 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.99 1.02 1.02
Brooklyn 1.02 1.05 1.06 0.89 0.94 0.99
Buffalo 1.04 0.99 1.05 0.96 1.04 0.98
Burlington 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.07 0.98
Carolina 1.03 1.00 1.20 0.99 0.99 0.98
Cedar Rapids 1.09 1.03 1.01 0.96 1.04 0.98
Charleston 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.87 1.06 1.01
Charlotte 1.05 1.00 0.98 1.37 0.96 1.00
Chattanooga 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 0.98 1.00
Clearwater 0.94 0.98 0.97 1.11 1.00 0.97
Clinton 1.01 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.00
Colorado Springs 1.08 1.07 1.10 1.00 0.97 0.91
Columbus 0.98 0.96 0.96 1.07 0.99 1.03
Columbus (A) 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.17 0.97 1.02
Connecticut 0.93 0.95 0.88 0.82 0.97 1.00
Corpus Christi 1.02 1.01 0.96 1.15 0.92 0.96
Dayton 1.03 0.99 1.00 1.07 1.00 0.96
Daytona 1.10 1.03 1.08 1.12 1.05 1.04
Delmarva 0.88 0.95 0.93 0.86 1.00 1.05
Dunedin 1.04 1.02 1.09 1.01 1.00 0.99
Durham 1.03 1.00 1.01 1.25 1.08 1.02
Erie 1.15 1.03 1.08 1.09 1.00 1.00
Eugene 0.99 0.96 0.97 1.10 1.03 1.04
Everett 0.94 0.95 1.02 1.18 1.04 1.15
Fort Myers 0.97 0.98 0.93 0.99 1.01 1.01
Fort Wayne 1.07 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.00 0.96
Frederick 1.08 1.03 1.02 1.33 0.96 1.02
Fresno 1.00 0.97 0.99 1.12 1.00 0.97
Frisco 0.94 0.97 0.91 0.99 1.04 1.02
Great Lakes 0.95 0.97 0.93 0.94 1.04 1.06
Greensboro 1.07 1.04 1.02 1.16 1.02 0.96
Greenville 1.03 1.02 1.09 1.17 0.99 0.97
Hagerstown 1.06 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.02 1.01
Harrisburg 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.12 0.92 0.99
Hickory 1.00 1.03 0.99 1.14 1.00 1.01
High Desert 1.16 1.07 1.09 1.24 1.07 0.96
Hudson Valley 1.07 0.96 1.05 0.75 1.04 1.08
Huntsville 0.98 1.01 0.93 1.10 1.02 1.03
Indianapolis 0.95 0.99 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.99
Inland Empire 0.92 0.97 0.88 0.74 1.01 1.02
Iowa 0.97 0.99 1.15 0.95 1.05 1.06
Jacksonville 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.94 1.03 1.07
Jamestown 0.99 1.01 0.89 1.24 0.96 0.97
Jupiter 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.86 0.96 0.98
Kane County 1.03 1.02 0.99 1.10 1.00 1.01
Kannapolis 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.93 0.96 1.00
Kinston 0.98 0.96 0.88 1.10 1.06 1.04
Lake County 1.02 1.00 0.99 1.23 0.98 1.01
Lake Elsinore 0.97 0.97 1.05 0.79 1.02 1.03
Lakeland 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.11 0.99 1.00
Lakewood 1.01 0.98 1.02 0.77 1.03 1.00
Lancaster 1.14 1.06 1.04 1.17 0.97 0.93
Lansing 1.02 0.99 1.00 1.08 1.00 1.02
Las Vegas 1.11 1.07 1.14 1.05 1.06 0.98
Lehigh Valley 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.95 0.99 0.99
Lexington 0.97 1.00 0.98 1.06 0.93 0.97
Louisville 1.07 1.04 0.96 1.01 1.00 0.96
Lowell 1.07 1.02 1.02 0.95 1.00 1.01
Lynchburg 1.00 1.03 1.15 0.91 0.95 0.95
Mahoning Valley 1.06 1.02 0.95 1.31 1.01 1.00
Memphis 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.03
Midland 1.01 1.02 1.07 0.88 1.00 0.98
Mississippi 0.97 1.00 1.02 0.76 0.97 1.03
Mobile 1.02 0.99 1.00 1.21 0.99 0.99
Modesto 0.97 1.02 1.08 0.82 0.96 0.99
Montgomery 1.06 1.03 1.05 1.16 1.04 0.95
Myrtle Beach 1.02 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.05 0.97
Nashville 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.12
New Britain 1.00 1.00 1.10 0.95 1.01 1.05
New Hampshire 1.03 1.01 1.05 0.99 1.04 1.01
New Orleans 0.87 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.97 1.04
Norfolk 0.97 0.99 0.94 0.80 1.06 1.03
NW Arkansas 1.01 1.01 1.11 0.94 1.03 0.99
Oklahoma 1.02 1.03 1.03 0.93 0.96 0.98
Omaha 1.04 0.99 0.95 1.10 1.07 1.00
Oneonta 1.00 1.02 0.95 0.73 0.99 0.95
Palm Beach 0.93 0.99 0.97 0.80 0.94 1.01
Pawtucket 1.04 0.99 1.01 1.11 1.07 1.02
Peoria 0.95 0.98 0.96 0.99 0.96 1.00
Portland (AA) 0.99 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.02
Portland (AAA) 0.92 0.93 0.93 1.07 1.07 1.04
Potomac 1.02 1.02 0.98 0.97 0.95 1.01
Quad Cities 0.95 0.99 0.95 1.00 0.96 1.01
Rancho Cucamonga 0.93 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.94 0.97
Reading 1.03 1.01 0.96 1.25 0.99 0.99
Richmond 1.06 1.04 1.11 0.86 0.98 0.96
Rochester 1.03 1.01 1.08 1.05 0.98 1.02
Rome 0.97 1.00 0.94 0.78 0.94 0.98
Round Rock 0.94 0.98 0.91 0.96 1.03 0.95
Sacramento 0.96 0.95 0.98 0.88 1.02 1.08
Salem 0.97 0.99 1.08 0.88 0.95 0.93
Salem-Keizer 1.10 1.03 1.02 1.21 1.01 0.95
Salt Lake 1.05 1.03 0.94 1.16 1.00 0.95
San Antonio 0.97 1.01 0.98 0.82 0.99 1.02
San Jose 0.89 0.94 0.95 0.86 0.95 1.06
Sarasota 0.98 1.00 1.02 0.94 1.03 1.01
Savannah 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.76 1.01 1.00
Scranton 0.95 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.95 1.04
South Bend 1.00 1.01 1.05 0.98 1.00 0.91
Spokane 0.93 0.97 0.94 1.05 0.97 1.02
Springfield 1.10 1.01 1.05 1.32 1.03 1.06
St. Lucie 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.96 1.00
State College 1.00 1.02 1.11 0.95 0.96 0.99
Staten Island 0.97 0.97 0.92 1.20 1.02 0.94
Stockton 1.01 0.98 0.91 1.27 1.02 1.08
Syracuse 0.97 1.03 0.98 0.97 1.00 0.94
Tacoma 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 1.00 1.06
Tampa 1.04 1.01 0.97 0.96 0.97 1.02
Tennessee 1.04 1.04 0.94 1.17 1.00 0.96
Toledo 0.92 0.98 1.04 0.88 0.98 1.03
Trenton 0.90 0.97 0.96 0.89 0.98 1.05
Tri-City (NP) 1.07 1.01 1.03 1.15 1.01 1.00
Tri-City (NW) 1.03 1.03 1.10 0.80 0.98 1.03
Tucson 0.99 1.04 1.03 0.86 0.95 0.93
Tulsa 1.03 1.00 1.03 1.10 1.04 0.98
Vancouver 0.95 1.00 1.07 0.71 1.02 0.98
Vermont 1.00 0.99 1.04 0.91 1.04 1.03
Vero Beach 1.05 0.99 1.00 1.22 1.08 0.98
Visalia 1.09 1.05 1.08 1.19 1.02 0.94
West Michigan 0.89 0.98 0.94 0.84 0.93 1.05
West Tennessee 1.03 1.01 1.08 0.90 1.01 0.97
West Virginia 1.09 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.01 1.00
Williamsport 0.89 0.95 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.98
Wilmington 0.91 0.94 0.92 0.83 1.08 1.09
Winston-Salem 1.04 1.03 1.08 1.02 1.03 0.99
Wisconsin 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.90 0.93 1.06
Yakima 1.03 1.01 1.03 0.87 1.02 0.96
2006-2008
Aberdeen 0.96 0.98 0.96 1.00 0.99 1.04 Akron 1.00 1.01 0.98 0.88 0.98 0.94 Albuquerque 1.18 1.11 1.07 1.17 0.96 0.91 Altoona 0.98 1.02 1.00 0.91 0.99 0.95 Arkansas 0.96 0.99 0.97 0.94 0.97 1.00 Asheville 1.11 1.05 1.08 1.18 1.02 0.94 Auburn 1.00 0.99 1.01 0.97 1.03 1.03 Augusta 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.78 1.04 1.01 Bakersfield 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.05 1.03 0.99 Batavia 1.04 1.03 1.12 0.90 1.03 1.02 Beloit 1.03 1.01 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 Binghamton 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.03 1.04 Birmingham 0.95 0.98 0.95 0.83 0.98 1.00 Boise 1.05 1.05 0.94 1.11 0.93 0.92 Bowie 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.01 1.03 Brevard 0.98 1.00 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.03 Brooklyn 0.99 0.99 1.05 0.99 0.95 1.02 Buffalo 1.03 1.00 1.04 0.97 1.03 0.96 Burlington 0.99 0.98 1.01 1.01 1.06 1.00 Carolina 1.01 1.00 1.13 0.95 1.02 0.98 Cedar Rapids 1.04 1.02 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 Charleston 0.95 0.98 0.99 0.83 1.01 1.02 Charlotte 1.05 1.01 0.99 1.32 0.97 1.03 Chattanooga 1.03 1.02 1.03 1.06 0.99 0.99 Clearwater 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.09 1.01 0.98 Clinton 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.00 1.01 0.99 Colorado Springs 1.09 1.05 1.09 1.02 0.95 0.95 Columbus 0.98 0.97 0.96 1.04 1.00 1.01 Columbus (A) 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.09 0.99 1.02 Connecticut 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.81 0.96 1.02 Corpus Christi 0.99 0.99 0.96 1.08 0.97 0.98 Dayton 1.03 1.00 0.97 1.09 0.99 0.99 Daytona 1.06 1.02 1.01 1.10 1.01 1.05 Delmarva 0.91 0.95 0.93 0.89 1.04 1.08 Dunedin 1.04 1.03 1.06 1.10 0.97 1.03 Durham 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.19 1.03 1.06 Erie 1.12 1.03 1.05 1.10 1.03 0.98 Eugene 0.99 0.98 0.99 1.14 1.01 1.06 Everett 0.98 0.98 1.02 1.13 1.04 1.08 Fort Myers 0.96 0.98 0.95 0.91 1.02 1.02 Fort Wayne 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.07 1.04 0.98 Frederick 1.05 1.02 0.97 1.28 0.99 1.02 Fresno 0.98 0.97 0.98 1.06 1.01 1.02 Frisco 0.99 0.99 0.95 1.05 1.03 1.01 Great Lakes 0.95 0.97 0.92 1.03 1.00 1.08 Greensboro 1.06 1.02 0.99 1.23 1.02 0.97 Greenville 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.11 1.00 0.98 Hagerstown 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.00 0.96 Harrisburg 1.03 1.02 0.96 1.13 0.96 0.98 Hickory 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.13 0.99 0.98 High Desert 1.13 1.05 1.03 1.23 1.03 0.94 Hudson Valley 1.02 0.99 1.04 0.87 1.01 1.10 Huntsville 0.98 1.00 0.96 1.07 1.01 1.04 Indianapolis 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.97 Inland Empire 0.93 0.98 0.96 0.79 0.99 1.03 Iowa 1.01 1.01 1.11 0.99 1.04 1.07 Jacksonville 0.96 0.96 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.06 Jamestown 1.05 1.02 0.93 1.25 0.96 0.90 Jupiter 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.83 0.97 0.99 Kane County 1.05 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.03 1.03 Kannapolis 1.01 1.01 1.02 0.91 1.00 1.00 Kinston 0.99 0.97 0.95 1.08 1.03 1.05 Lake County 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.08 1.00 1.00 Lake Elsinore 0.95 0.96 1.01 0.84 1.02 0.97 Lakeland 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.04 1.03 0.97 Lakewood 0.97 0.99 1.05 0.80 0.99 1.05 Lancaster 1.14 1.08 1.04 1.21 1.01 0.96 Lansing 1.02 1.00 1.03 1.06 0.98 1.00 Las Vegas 1.09 1.06 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.01 Lehigh Valley 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.99 1.00 Lexington 0.98 1.00 0.98 1.08 0.95 1.01 Louisville 1.05 1.03 1.00 0.97 1.00 0.93 Lowell 1.01 1.00 1.01 0.92 1.00 1.04 Lynchburg 1.01 1.02 1.13 0.91 0.97 0.95 Mahoning Valley 1.04 1.01 0.98 1.16 1.01 1.01 Memphis 0.96 0.97 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.02 Midland 1.02 1.02 1.04 0.91 0.99 0.98 Mississippi 0.97 1.00 1.00 0.83 0.98 1.02 Mobile 1.02 0.99 1.00 1.15 1.02 1.00 Modesto 0.97 1.00 1.06 0.80 0.99 0.99 Montgomery 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.06 0.98 0.99 Myrtle Beach 0.98 1.00 0.94 0.98 1.04 1.02 Nashville 0.94 0.96 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.09 New Britain 1.00 1.00 1.07 0.99 1.00 1.00 New Hampshire 1.01 0.99 1.04 1.05 1.00 1.00 New Orleans 0.91 0.95 0.97 0.93 1.00 1.07 Norfolk 0.94 0.98 0.96 0.81 1.02 1.01 NW Arkansas 1.00 1.01 1.05 0.97 1.01 1.00 Oklahoma 0.98 1.01 1.00 0.91 0.97 0.98 Omaha 1.02 0.99 0.95 1.10 1.05 1.01 Oneonta 1.01 1.01 0.98 0.78 0.97 0.93 Palm Beach 0.93 0.98 1.00 0.82 0.96 1.00 Pawtucket 1.02 1.00 0.97 1.18 1.04 1.05 Peoria 0.96 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 1.00 Portland (AA) 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.05 1.02 Portland (AAA) 0.93 0.94 0.97 1.05 1.02 0.99 Potomac 0.99 1.01 0.97 0.98 0.94 1.00 Quad Cities 0.96 0.98 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.98 Rancho Cucamonga 0.96 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.97 0.99 Reading 1.03 1.00 0.96 1.22 1.02 0.99 Richmond 1.01 1.01 1.05 0.86 0.98 0.97 Rochester 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.00 0.99 1.04 Rome 0.98 1.01 1.00 0.81 0.98 0.97 Round Rock 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.99 0.98 0.99 Sacramento 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.89 0.99 1.10 Salem 0.98 1.00 1.08 0.89 0.98 0.93 Salem-Keizer 1.09 1.02 1.05 1.19 1.03 0.95 Salt Lake 1.06 1.04 0.96 1.07 1.00 0.93 San Antonio 0.93 0.99 1.00 0.84 0.99 1.03 San Jose 0.89 0.94 0.97 0.87 0.97 1.08 Sarasota 1.00 1.00 1.06 0.93 1.02 1.00 Savannah 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.98 1.00 1.02 Scranton 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.94 1.01 1.01 South Bend 0.99 1.00 1.05 0.92 0.99 0.90 Spokane 1.00 0.99 0.93 1.18 1.01 1.02 Springfield 1.06 1.01 1.06 1.22 1.00 1.04 St. Lucie 1.02 1.00 1.02 1.02 0.98 0.97 State College 0.99 1.00 1.02 0.98 1.01 0.97 Staten Island 0.96 0.99 0.97 1.09 1.02 0.96 Stockton 1.00 0.98 0.95 1.22 1.02 1.04 Syracuse 0.99 1.02 0.99 0.99 1.02 0.96 Tacoma 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.93 1.03 1.06 Tampa 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.97 Tennessee 1.04 1.03 0.96 1.15 0.98 0.93 Toledo 0.95 0.98 1.07 0.90 0.99 1.02 Trenton 0.93 0.98 0.99 0.86 0.98 1.05 Tri-City (NP) 1.11 1.06 1.06 1.36 1.04 1.05 Tri-City (NW) 0.99 1.01 1.06 0.77 1.03 1.09 Tucson 1.04 1.01 1.06 0.92 1.03 1.08 Tulsa 1.02 1.01 1.05 1.08 1.03 1.08 Vancouver 0.95 0.99 1.04 0.72 1.01 0.94 Vermont 1.05 1.02 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.01 Vero Beach 1.06 1.01 0.99 1.30 1.03 1.01 Visalia 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.19 1.01 0.98 West Michigan 0.95 1.00 0.96 0.86 0.97 1.02 West Tennessee 1.02 1.00 1.06 0.98 1.03 0.99 West Virginia 1.04 1.02 1.06 1.00 0.98 1.02 Williamsport 0.93 0.97 0.98 1.04 1.00 1.00 Wilmington 0.94 0.96 0.94 0.84 1.06 1.07 Winston-Salem 1.05 1.03 1.06 1.06 1.03 0.98 Wisconsin 0.99 1.00 1.01 0.95 0.98 1.08 Yakima 0.98 0.98 1.02 0.85 0.99 0.96
Dan Szymborski
Posted: September 22, 2008 at 11:17 AM | 14 comment(s)
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I don't do the Instructional Leagues - when you combine the short season with the ridiculously high roster turnover, you get something I don't really want to touch. Same problem with the short seasons in the higher NY-Penn and Northwest Leagues, but their more stable rosters and higher level just barely gets me to do those.
I guess that bodes well for Brandon Erbe, but not so much for Rowell and Snyder.
And Schafer, come on up to Atlanta. That PF just make his season even better.
Great stuff. Two Qs:
1) What is the baseline, an average minor league park?
2) Any chance of league totals?
Thanks.
His baseline is an average park for that league. Also, league totals (in the sense of league offense levels) are available on minors.baseball-reference.com, on the league pages. I've calculated some separate stuff in this vein, but don't have it with me. I can say (offhand) that offense was up in AAA this year, just as it was down in the bigs.
Here's last year's thread.
A few superlatives ('08 only):
R: New Orleans - 0.87, Albuquerque - 1.18
H: New Orleans - 0.92, Albuquerque - 1.13
2B: Birmingham - 0.87, Carolina - 1.20
HR: Vancouver - 0.71, Charlotte - 1.37
BB: Albuquerque - 0.91, Augusta - 1.10
SO: Boise - 0.89, Everett - 1.15
Lg. 2008 2007 2006
MLB 4.63 4.77 4.80
Int 4.50 4.35 4.17
PCL 5.25 5.13 4.83
Eas 4.62 4.60 4.22
Sou 4.69 4.56 3.97
Tex 4.90 4.64 4.92
I'm also a believer in accounting for the imbalanced schedule in PF generation (in a previous year's thread, I suggested a 2 point difference in run factors b/w the two PCL conferences, IIRC).
Lastly, I'm not 100% convinced that regressing to 1.00 for missing years in building a multi-year PF is optimal. We have evidence that the "true" factors may differ from that figure so we should probably only partially regress it. Ex: If Colorado Springs builds a new park, more of a bandbox, and puts up a 1.3 in it's first year, I'm not going to want to use a factor of 1.13. YMMV, of course.
Can't wait to see this year's MLEs - where I'd like to hear what people think is the proper way to treat pitchers' BABIP (hint: Dan differs(ed?) from a lot of other available estimates).
My newest model (which is no longer linear) fully implements my research from last winter, where I looked at roughly a million minor league at-bats from each level change. No idea how others do it, of course.
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