I'm really pulling for Adam Jones to break out and be their starting RF. That guy can flat out play, and on a team like the Mariners should be starting without any doubt. Guillen is garbage.

I'm also hoping for a big year from Matt Tuiasosopo. I would hope the reasons are obvious.

Adam should be playing left field. Ibanez has ZERO business playing the field and Guillen can at least play his position.

Thanks for all the hardwork, Dan. My feeling with Felix is that as long as he continues upon a positive path and doesn't hurt himself I'm happy. If it takes him 2 or 3 more years to get REALLY good, that's fine. I can wait.

Thre just isn't much offense there. I can't believe bavasi didn't trade Sexson when he had the chance, and turn 1B over to Vidro/Ibanez

It's very close to criminal negligence for Bavasi to not have let the Tigers take Sexson on waivers. Did he want to pay Sexson $14 for the privilege of seeing how Sexson follows up on 2007? *gag*

I still can't believe the waiver pull-back. Then again I still can't believe the Soriano trade.

I dont watch the Mariners much, how does Ichiro get so few doubles year in and year out?

The King Felix projection is pretty disappointing, so I hope ZiPS is wrong. For most teams, that'd be a pretty positive projection for a very young starter, but I think a lot of people, myself included, kinda hoped he'd be fighting for Cy Youngs by now, not suffering occasional arm tweaks and allowing a confusing number of hits.

It isn't confusing at all considering how bad the defense has been. Also, both the team and Felix are fascinated with the idea of establishing the fastball, yet his fastball has been one of his more inconsistent pitches throughout his professional career. Check his performance over the course of '06-'07--several times he's found himself in a hole after the 1st inning because he tried to "establish his fastball."

Guillen is garbage.

Well, I wouldn't go that far. He put up a 118 OPS+ last year, good for 3rd best on the team. His defense is below average, but not as bad as Ibañez. It appears that Dan's ZiPS includes his injury-riddled '06. From '03 to '05 he put an OPS+ of 141, 119, and 118. I think he's got a pretty good chance to do better than ZiPS projects. The question, though, is whether he stays with the M's. Guillen's contract includes a mutual option for the '08 season. Before the big losing streak the two sides where discussing a contract extension. I doubt Guillen's going to return without the security of a multi-year deal, and that free fall in late-Aug.\early-Sept. didn't help either. I'm not going to sweat it if he decides to look elsewhere; his personality will always make him a player to be careful of and his worry to the press about "upsetting team chemistry" with the introduction of the youngsters wasn't something I appreciated. But his performance this year wasn't garbage and he should do alright for whatever team he plays for next year. He absolutely crushed lefties in '07.

Thre just isn't much offense there. I can't believe bavasi didn't trade Sexson when he had the chance, and turn 1B over to Vidro/Ibanez

The should've traded Sexson after the '06 season; however, the Mariners are one of those teams that would be fooled into thinking that Sexson's 2nd half in '06 was a sign of things to come, while completely ignoring his 1st half. One of their biggest weaknesses is their inability to understand the Sample Size Syndrome. It's why they were willing to give Jeremy Reed the center field position in '05 when he could've used a little more seasoning, and why they went with Rene Rivera as their backup catcher for a full year in '06 when he had no business catching in the majors.

It's very close to criminal negligence for Bavasi to not have let the Tigers take Sexson on waivers. Did he want to pay Sexson $14 for the privilege of seeing how Sexson follows up on 2007? *gag*

The story goes that the M's didn't want to give up one of their players to a playoff competitor, fearing that it would come back to haunt them. I'd say let it haunt you--it would've only helped in the long run.

I dont watch the Mariners much, how does Ichiro get so few doubles year in and year out?

It's probably mostly due to the fact that so many of his hits are ground balls; even Ichiro's speed can only do so much in that regard.

I dont watch the Mariners much, how does Ichiro get so few doubles year in and year out?

Yeah, that would be the career 2.29 G/F ratio. Rickey Henderson was another one who collected an inordinately low number of doubles, considering his speed and power. He had 510 career, but only hit 30 in a season 5 times, never more than 33. I don't know anywhere I can find his ground/fly numbers, but for him I always figured it was because he held up at first so he could steal second ;-).

but for him I always figured it was because he held up at first so he could steal second ;-).

I think you're right. Henderson liked to collect "delayed doubles".

thanks guys.

amazing comparing him (even adding his triples to his doubles count) to a guy like Boggs, who also banged out 200 hits a lot but had tons more doubles with a fraction of the speed.

Glad to see that 2008 ZIPS are coming out. Question. Is there a page on this site that has links to all the teams that have their 2008 ZIPS out? Otherwise it takes alot of searching to find the ZIPS projections of the team(s) you are interested in. This is especially the case once the ZIPS are out on many teams. Thanks!
vr, Xeifrank

Rickey was slow out of the box, so he didn't get many leg doubles, and it seemed to even have cut down on making it on regular doubles.

Frank, I'll make sure that the next, and future, installments contain a bank of links to the previous entries. Until, of course, I post the spreadsheet/DMB disk.

Is there a page on this site that has links to all the teams that have their 2008 ZIPS out?

From the main page, you can choose "Transaction Oracle" from the "Other Blogs" scroll-down menu. All of the new ZIPS are linked there. Also, when you're in one of these threads, the Hot Topics section on the right-hand side switches to only "Transaction Oracle" articles, which will give you the most recent if not all of the 2008 ZIPS.

It's very close to criminal negligence for Bavasi to not have let the Tigers take Sexson on waivers.

Oh, it's not close at all. I'd fire my GM for that. Another team wanted to effectively GIVE you $16-17 Mil. over 1+ years. Plus, your team gets immediately better with Jones in LF and some combination of Ibanez/Vidro/Broussard at 1B.

Inconceivable! And that does mean what I think it means.