2008 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

As obvious as one of the main storylines of 2007 was, the pitching being top-notch and the offense being, well, otherwise, the park made these actually more extreme, masking to some degree just how good the pitching was and just how bad the hitting was. After all, the surges of the Rockies and Phillies, bringing Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday to the front of the pack, might have saved us from Eric Byrnes of the 104 OPS+ in left being taken seriously as an MVP candidate (as he was at times in the middle of the season).

The offense should be better but the pitching shouldn't drop off too much, which makes the Diamondbacks yet another contender in a crowded NL field. What makes the Diamondbacks especially dangerous is those little twos in the age column - the major league squad is chock-full of players that are at ages they can improve. Counting on an individual young player to improve is generally not as good a bet as most people think. However, when massed as they are in Arizona, they act almost as an index stock - it doesn't really matter if it's Mark Reynolds or Conor Jackson or Chris Young or Stephen Drew or Justin Upton make a huge step forward so long as some of them do, which the odds do favor. I don't know if it will be Conor Jackson hitting 25 homers or Chris Young rebounding from a weak rookie season or Justin Upton making huge adjustments carefully, but I know that there are going to be some player on this team that are going to move over a bunch of those dashed lines below.

This completes the team-by-team ZiPS projections. Now I can start finalizing rosters and players. By popular interest, I'm going to release the DMB disk and spreadsheet as often as possible, even when not complete. The first build will include all 40-man rosters, non-roster invitees, and verified minor league signings and should appear in the next several days (with the rest of the players, new/requested projections and lower-level minor leagues following). Well, most 40-man rosters as there are a few players on 40-man rosters I can't really do projections for, including players from Cuba and those with little or no professional experience (and no chance at making a roster soon).

I hope you all have enjoyed the team-by-team rundown of projections. It would be neater to simply add them all at once, but I think the discussions that result from doing them one-by-one are quite interesting. As usual, all suggestions for formatting and various other things you'd like to see in future projections are much appreciated. Also, any players that you would like to see a projection for that I can reasonably do!

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .287  .366  .498 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .285  .373  .479 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .285  .369  .481 ------------------------------------------
Chad Tracy*              3b  28  .291  .360  .492 120 423  62 123 30  2 17  69  42  79  2  0 
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .282  .366  .471 ------------------------------------------ 
Conor Jackson            1b  26  .290  .372  .457 143 462  68 134 33  1 14  68  57  64  2  1
Orlando Hudson#          2b  30  .295  .368  .452 141 516  75 152 31  7 12  71  59  78  7  2 
Tony Clark#              1b  36  .259  .326  .517 109 232  29  60 10  1 16  46  23  63  0  0
Mark Reynolds            3b  24  .274  .339  .481 143 486  71 133 29  3 22  82  45 158  2  2 
Javier Brito             1b  25  .287  .358  .435 140 474  55 136 32  1 12  65  48 101  1  1 
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .279  .357  .443 ------------------------------------------ 
Eric Byrnes              lf  32  .278  .338  .455 134 508  77 141 29  5 17  74  39  80 28  4
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .284  .358  .432 ------------------------------------------ 
Jamie D'Antona           3b  26  .288  .342  .447 130 483  56 139 34  2 13  68  38  74  1  1
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .282  .349  .425 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .267  .352  .421 ------------------------------------------ 
Jeff Salazar*            cf  27  .265  .345  .425 123 445  71 118 28  5 11  58  51  84 12  5 
Jeff Cirillo             3b  38  .285  .346  .411  85 207  28  59 15  1  3  24  19  22  2  1 
Robby Hammock            c   31  .276  .336  .414  75 239  23  66 13  1  6  32  19  34  2  2 
Chris Young              cf  24  .245  .309  .467 151 567  80 139 33  3 29  96  48 124 23  6 
Cyle Hankerd             cf  23  .280  .335  .402 128 478  46 134 31  0  9  58  26  99  1  3 
Miguel Montero*          c   24  .249  .322  .417 120 362  34  90 16  0 15  53  36  58  0  1 
Stephen Drew*            ss  25  .260  .323  .408 156 578  64 150 30  7 14  73  54 104  6  1 
Chris Snyder             c   27  .244  .328  .403 108 320  34  78 18  0 11  44  37  72  0  1 
Alex Romero#             rf  24  .279  .329  .398 135 513  63 143 38  4  5  55  36  51 14  9 
Chris Burke              2b  28  .254  .328  .379 129 398  64 101 24  1  8  45  35  66 16  5 
Justin Upton             cf  20  .248  .313  .404 154 572  64 142 33  4 16  74  48 138 19 12 
Don Kelly*               ss  28  .261  .330  .351 111 356  46  93 20  3  2  34  34  44 11  7 
Augie Ojeda#             ss  33  .249  .326  .324 107 281  38  70 13  1  2  25  29  30  3  0 
Tim Raines Jr.#          lf  28  .258  .300  .375 122 392  46 101 18  2  8  39  21  91 20  8 
Dave Krynzel*            cf  26  .220  .281  .356 104 337  44  74 16  3  8  39  26  91 12  6 
Wilkin Castillo#         c   24  .250  .279  .354 108 384  35  96 26  1  4  39  13  60 13 10 
Emilio Bonifacio#        2b  23  .245  .282  .312 142 564  72 138 26  3  2  46  27 117 36 15 

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name               CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf 
Tracy*                  Av    Av    Av    Av 
Jackson                 Av                   
Hudson#                    Av                
Clark#                  Av                   
Reynolds                   Fr Av             
Brito                   Fr                Fr 
Byrnes                              Vg Fr Vg 
D'Antona           Fr   Av    Av             
Salazar*                            Vg Av Vg 
Cirillo                 Vg Fr Vg Pr          
Hammock            Av   Av    Fr    Fr    Fr 
Young                                  Av    
Hankerd                             Pr       
Montero*           Fr                        
Drew*                            Fr          
Snyder             Av                        
Romero#                             Av Fr Av 
Burke                      Av    Fr Fr Pr Fr 
Upton                               Av Av Av 
Kelly*                  Av Fr Av Fr          
Ojeda#                     Vg Vg Vg          
Raines#                             Vg Fr Vg 
Krynzel*                            Vg Av Vg 
Castillo#          Fr      Fr Fr Fr       Av 
Bonifacio#                 Av    Fr          

Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew
Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .283  .354  .462 162 600  79 170 35  9 18  88  66  97 12  1  105  -1     
Mean              .260  .323  .408 156 578  64 150 30  7 14  73  54 104  6  1   85  -5 
Pessimistic (15%) .232  .287  .335 144 534  40 124 23  4  8  53  41 113  3  2   56  -9 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Chris Speier, Andujar Cedeno

Player Spotlight - Chris Young
Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .270  .343  .528 161 608 101 164 39  5 36 117  62 121 34  5  117   4 
Mean              .245  .309  .467 151 567  80 139 33  3 29  96  48 124 23  6   94   1 
Pessimistic (15%) .216  .272  .394 142 533  54 115 27  1 22  75  37 139 15  7   67  -3   

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Dale Murphy

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Brandon Webb              29   3.01  18   7  31  31   224.0  203   75  12   53  180 
Doug Slaten*              28   3.63   4   2  64   0    57.0   54   23   4   25   49 
Juan Cruz                 29   3.67   5   3  42   8    81.0   67   33   7   42   94 
Tony Pena                 26   3.69   7   4  74   0    83.0   79   34   8   26   59 
Brandon Lyon              28   3.82   4   3  65   0    66.0   69   28   5   19   39 
Chad Qualls               29   3.86   6   5  79   0    84.0   82   36  10   26   67 
Bob Wickman               39   3.88   3   3  54   0    51.0   51   22   5   17   37 
Danny Haren               27   3.92  14  11  33  33   216.0  214   94  27   46  177 
Randy Johnson*            44   3.99   9   8  22  22   142.0  129   63  20   34  154 
Max Scherzer              23   4.35   5   6  18  18    89.0   82   43   8   57   76
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.44 -----------------------------------------------	 
Micah Owings              25   4.47   8   9  29  28   163.0  169   81  19   56  108 
Brandon Medders           28   4.56   5   6  67   0    77.0   78   39  10   40   59 
Doug Davis*               32   4.66  10  12  32  32   193.0  202  100  21   87  149 
Jailen Peguero            27   4.78   4   4  64   0    79.0   78   42   9   45   60 
Connor Robertson          26   4.79   3   4  45   0    62.0   65   33   7   29   49 
Edgar Gonzalez            25   4.81   7   8  32  20   146.0  157   78  26   33  105 
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.87 -----------------------------------------------
Dustin Nippert            27   5.14   5   7  32  16   112.0  117   64  15   55   84 
Brooks Brown              22   5.16   4   7  22  17    96.0  100   55  10   56   58 
Leonel Rosales            27   5.22   4   5  46   0    50.0   53   29   8   22   40 
Emiliano Fruto            24   5.34   4   7  36  10    91.0   90   54  10   68   64 
Bill Murphy*              27   5.37   4   6  49  14   114.0  120   68  16   67   89 
Yusmeiro Petit            23   5.49   6  11  32  24   141.0  159   86  26   52   86 
Livan Hernandez           33   5.55   7  14  30  30   193.0  233  119  31   75  103 
Billy Buckner             24   5.74   6  13  33  25   152.0  173   97  26   72   98 
Esmerling Vasquez         24   5.85   5   9  30  24   120.0  141   78  19   71   88 
Juan Gutierrez            24   5.94   5  11  29  26   153.0  173  101  27   64   89 
Daniel Stange             22   6.00   3   7  45   0    48.0   52   32   8   30   40 
Hector Ambriz             24   6.10   6  13  29  27   143.0  162   97  24   84   86 
Matt Torra                24   6.15   4   9  19  19   101.0  121   69  17   45   56 
Matt Green                26   6.66   4  12  25  25   127.0  157   94  28   61   68 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Doug Davis
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Optimistic (15%)   3.78  13  10  34  34  212  203   89  17   80  171   124
Mean               4.66  10  12  32  32  193  202  100  21   87  149   101 
Pessimistic (15%)  5.84   6  12  26  26  151  178   98  22   79  106    80

Top Near-Age Comps:  Jim Bibby, Pat Rapp

Player Spotlight - Brandon Webb
                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA+       
Optimistic (15%)   2.50  20   5  32  32  234  196   65  10   51  204   188
Mean               3.01  18   7  31  31  224  203   75  12   53  180   156 
Pessimistic (15%)  4.11  11  10  26  26  175  179   80  15   56  131   114

Top Near-Age Comps:  Frank Sullivan, Roger Clemens 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

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