2008 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles
Before doing the Baltimore projections, I fearlessly claimed that the Red Sox had the best projections of any AL team. After doing the Orioles projections,
I'm not revising that opinion.
There are some reasons to like the franchise. That is, if you close your eyes and pretend that this is the time that Angelos won't short-circuit a long-term
rebuilding job. Angelos seems to want a painless rebuild, but the time to get a relatively painless rebuild was 10 years ago. While they could have
rebuilt after the 1997 season, it's hard to expect any team to rebuild after a 98-win season. But during the 1998 season, when it was clear that they
weren't a contender, Angelos stood in the way of any change of direction. Palmeiro and Alomar and Eric Davis simply walked at the end of the season, there
wasn't even a whisper of Brady Anderson or B.J. Surhoff being moved, and so on. The major league talent moved on, no minor league talent replaced them for
years, and the team took one of the highest concentrations of high draft picks in history (7 of the first 50 picks in the draft) and turned it into Brian
Roberts.
Now, a rebuilding job is even more necessary and because the team put it off so long, it's going to be even more painful. The Orioles have accumulated a
solid number of minor leaguers, but if there's never truly an organizational will to use the players that develop and the desire to pretend to compete in
2008 in the back of Angelos's mind, it won't help anything.
I think this is the year that the Rays get 4th without needing another team to have horrid luck.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Nick Markakis* rf 24 .294 .357 .486 160 592 90 174 36 3 24 98 56 98 10 4
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .284 .361 .479 ------------------------------------------
Luke Scott* rf 30 .264 .360 .477 142 436 58 115 25 4 20 80 62 94 3 0
Brian Roberts# 2b 30 .287 .363 .437 145 579 93 166 39 3 14 80 70 87 36 7
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282 .353 .455 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .282 .350 .456 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .279 .346 .447 ------------------------------------------
Aubrey Huff* dh 31 .275 .341 .447 140 510 65 140 28 3 18 78 47 92 3 1
Luis Jimenez* 1b 26 .265 .331 .443 126 438 44 116 22 1 18 69 43 100 4 1
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .276 .339 .424 ------------------------------------------
Jay Gibbons* rf 31 .265 .318 .448 80 279 34 74 18 0 11 43 21 48 0 0
Kevin Millar 1b 36 .258 .354 .384 109 365 47 94 19 0 9 46 46 66 1 0
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .281 .340 .413 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .279 .333 .406 ------------------------------------------
Nolan Reimold rf 24 .251 .329 .445 110 382 42 96 23 0 17 62 43 96 7 7
Ramon Hernandez c 32 .260 .326 .418 110 385 44 100 20 1 13 55 32 60 1 1
Melvin Mora 3b 36 .265 .333 .397 126 491 70 130 23 0 14 65 43 90 8 2
Brandon Tripp* rf 23 .246 .315 .430 108 391 43 96 23 2 15 58 30 116 4 1
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .263 .323 .400 ------------------------------------------
Jay Payton lf 35 .268 .311 .401 114 399 55 107 19 2 10 52 22 44 3 2
Luis Terrero cf 28 .254 .312 .416 119 303 35 77 15 2 10 43 19 71 10 6
Scott Moore* 3b 24 .232 .309 .409 142 499 39 116 23 1 21 75 49 140 7 6
Corey Patterson* cf 28 .257 .295 .402 140 495 70 127 24 3 14 65 25 92 32 7
Oscar Salazar 3b 30 .254 .285 .417 93 362 31 92 24 1 11 50 14 56 3 1
Tike Redman* cf 31 .273 .318 .351 109 362 48 99 16 3 2 36 23 35 13 5
Guillermo Quiroz c 26 .248 .286 .393 70 234 16 58 13 0 7 35 12 49 0 0
Freddie Bynum* lf 28 .254 .304 .379 103 248 39 63 12 5 3 27 16 61 13 6
Michael Costanzo* 3b 24 .225 .300 .366 134 475 39 107 23 1 14 53 45 154 0 1
Brandon Fahey* 2b 27 .254 .314 .330 126 397 49 101 13 4 3 36 32 54 11 6
Omir Santos c 27 .243 .283 .336 93 301 23 73 16 0 4 31 15 59 1 1
Billy Rowell* 3b 19 .230 .272 .352 105 421 35 97 20 2 9 47 22 129 3 4
Paco Figueroa 2b 25 .249 .306 .317 108 401 54 100 19 1 2 35 28 55 15 13
Eider Torres# 2b 25 .243 .281 .314 132 497 44 121 18 1 5 45 26 71 28 12
Brandon Snyder 1b 21 .220 .263 .332 117 446 37 98 21 1 9 48 23 129 0 2
Luis Hernandez# ss 24 .240 .265 .292 140 504 46 121 17 3 1 39 17 67 5 6
Ben Davis# c 31 .216 .247 .291 46 148 10 32 5 0 2 14 7 31 0 1
Paul Bako* c 36 .193 .261 .218 44 119 7 23 3 0 0 7 11 37 0 0
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Markakis* Av Pr Av
Scott* Av Av
Roberts# Av
Huff* Fr Pr Pr Pr
Jimenez* Pr
Gibbons* Av Pr
Millar Fr
Reimold Pr Pr
Hernandez Av
Mora Av
Tripp* Av Pr Av
Payton Av Av Av
Terrero Fr Fr Fr
Moore* Av Fr Av
Patterson* Ex
Salazar Av Av Pr
Redman* Vg Fr Vg
Quiroz Vg
Bynum* Av Av Fr Av Av Av
Costanzo* Av
Fahey* Av Av Av Vg
Santos Av
Rowell* Fr
Figueroa Av
Torres# Fr Fr
Snyder Av
Hernandez# Av Av
Davis# Av
Bako* Av
Player Spotlight - Nick Markakis
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .318 .389 .538 162 600 105 191 41 5 27 111 68 85 14 3 141 0
Mean .294 .357 .486 160 592 90 174 36 3 24 98 56 98 10 4 120 -3
Pessimistic (15%) .268 .327 .416 150 555 60 149 29 1 17 78 41 106 6 4 94 -7
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Vic Wertz, Rafael Palmeiro
Player Spotlight - Brian Roberts
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .310 .391 .498 152 606 112 188 47 5 19 97 82 77 44 6 133 8
Mean .287 .363 .437 145 579 93 166 39 3 14 80 70 87 36 7 110 4
Pessimistic (15%) .263 .335 .378 139 555 63 146 33 2 9 64 60 89 28 7 88 0
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bill Doran, Jose Offerman
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Erik Bedard* 29 3.34 13 6 28 28 175.0 153 65 15 59 184
Chad Bradford 33 3.38 5 2 65 0 56.0 60 21 1 12 28
Jamie Walker* 36 3.81 2 2 68 0 52.0 53 22 5 14 35
Chris Ray 26 4.12 5 4 58 0 59.0 54 27 9 25 54
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.34 -----------------------------------------------
Adam Loewen* 24 4.55 5 5 18 16 97.0 96 49 6 57 74
Greg Aquino 30 4.58 2 3 50 0 53.0 52 27 7 25 51
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.71 -----------------------------------------------
Jeremy Guthrie 29 4.84 6 8 28 23 145.0 159 78 21 50 89
Daniel Cabrera 27 4.85 11 13 31 31 180.0 176 97 20 108 164
Danys Baez 30 4.94 4 5 62 0 62.0 67 34 7 27 36
Fernando Cabrera 26 4.98 3 3 46 0 65.0 65 36 12 31 66
Rocky Cherry 28 5.00 2 3 54 1 72.0 80 40 10 31 46
Roberto Novoa 28 5.08 3 5 71 0 78.0 89 44 12 35 48
Randor Bierd 24 5.09 3 3 34 2 53.0 57 30 8 24 40
Kris Benson 33 5.20 6 9 21 21 128.0 149 74 21 40 61
Ryan Keefer 26 5.26 2 4 33 0 53.0 57 31 7 29 38
James Hoey 25 5.36 2 4 41 0 42.0 44 25 5 23 31
Dennis Sarfate 27 5.37 6 9 44 14 119.0 129 71 15 64 75
Troy Patton* 22 5.41 7 14 28 27 163.0 182 98 27 62 99
Matt Albers 25 5.81 6 12 31 25 155.0 182 100 23 74 83
Bob McCrory 26 5.86 1 3 36 0 43.0 46 28 5 34 30
Garrett Olson* 23 5.91 7 13 29 29 160.0 185 105 29 73 107
Hayden Penn 23 5.95 3 5 11 11 62.0 71 41 12 22 41
James Johnson 25 6.00 6 11 25 24 144.0 171 96 23 65 83
Jon Leicester 29 6.00 3 5 19 13 72.0 84 48 13 33 41
Brian Burres* 27 6.12 4 10 31 19 122.0 143 83 23 57 82
Radhames Liz 25 6.29 5 10 27 25 126.0 135 88 23 91 105
Chorye Spoone 22 6.33 5 13 27 26 138.0 158 97 20 103 72
Ryan Bukvich 30 6.40 1 4 44 0 45.0 51 32 9 26 28
Craig Anderson* 27 6.49 4 10 26 25 140.0 184 101 30 39 56
Brandon Erbe 20 6.69 4 11 28 28 117.0 138 87 22 83 73
Fredy Deza 25 8.15 2 10 41 10 106.0 144 96 33 53 52
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Erik Bedard
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.23 18 3 31 31 202 151 50 10 54 231 205
Mean 3.34 13 6 28 28 175 153 65 15 59 184 137
Pessimistic (15%) 4.63 8 8 23 23 136 138 70 18 55 135 99
Top Near-Age Comps: Hal Newhouser, Whitey Ford
Player Spotlight - Daniel Cabrera
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.66 16 10 34 34 209 180 85 17 99 206 125
Mean 4.85 11 13 31 31 180 176 97 20 108 164 94
Pessimistic (15%) 6.11 6 13 25 25 140 153 95 22 100 122 75
Top Near-Age Comps: Matt Clement, Bobby Witt
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 20, 2008 at 08:25 PM |
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The O's have screwed up in a variety of ways with the young players they've had. Pickering was blocked (by the Clark signing, when Cal was coming off his monster season in Bowie and Palmeiro had left for Texas), Riley was rushed (brought up to pitch a meaningless September game at the end of a long season; not only did he blow his arm out for the first time, but he was added to the 40 man roster years sooner than necessary, meaning that he ran out of options before he learned to pitch and was traded for Ramon f'in Nivar rather than be lost on waivers), Maine was given up on too soon, Werth couldn't be prevailed upon to give up catching, and lots and lots of guys should not have been drafted in the positions they were. Markakis was the best-looking prospect to come through the system since Pickering, and the fact that they let him play through two lousy months meant that at least they're not as dumb as they used to be. (Hey, there's a potential marketing plan. Your 2008 Baltimore Orioles - Not as dumb as we used to be!)
I think Flanagan became gun-shy of just letting the kids play after the 2004 season, when the young rotation of Ponson, Ainsworth, DuBose, Riley, and Bedard fell so hard on its face that by June the team had to reach down to Bowie for Daniel Cabrera to join Rodrigo Lopez in the rotation. The subsequent trade of Bautista for Grimsley was surely a sign of panic or temporary insanity or DeJean Fatigue or something.
I certainly hope that MacPhail won't be so frightened by the sight of seeing kids struggle, but it's still a little early to tell; exchanging Fiorentino (flawed, but with some potential for improvement) for Roberson (future insurance salesman) certainly wasn't very encouraging...
Interesting, didn't know that. I guess you can lay that one on Frank Wren (for putting him on the 40 man earlier than necessary that is).
Werth couldn't be prevailed upon to give up catching
They were going to move him to the OF (Thift said he looked like young Dale Murphy!), but he had such a terrible time at AA, they gave up on him.
The subsequent trade of Bautista for Grimsley was surely a sign of panic or temporary insanity.
I emailed a Sun reporter about this and he heard that Angelos ordered Bautista to be traded.
I certainly hope that MacPhail won't be so frightened by the sight of seeing kids struggle, but it's still a little early to tell;
Loewen and Guthrie will be interesting test cases. Flanagan LOVES Loewen, but obviously his influence is minimum now. I don't know how much MacPhail likes the more fringy guys like Hoey, Penn, and Olson. I suspect they'll get their share of playing time this year assuming they don't goof off during spring training, but I just don't know patient MacPhail will be with them. And I'm not familiar with his track record in terms of patience with younger guys when he was with the Cubs and Twins.
However, I think ultimately the success of this rebuilding process will be determined by whether or not MacPhail stops after dealing Bedard and Roberts.
Tear the whole thing down, I say.
Do they have much else after that? I guess Hernandez could get something, and maybe Millar at the trade deadline. It'd be interesting to see if they'd consider dealing Guthrie at a high point. He'll be 29 and is cheap, and I'd think they could get some very good young players for him.
Give me an fing break. You'll be upset no matter what the packages look like. And you'll be upset if they're not traded.
In the other thread, Mike mentioned a Jones/Clement/Tillman/? rumor. If you're not happy with that, you're overvaluing Bedard. And Gallagher/Murton/Cedeno is a fair return for Roberts IMO.
As for Roberts, I don't think that's a fair return for him at all. Murton is a 26-year old corner outfielder without much power. Cedeno is a 25-year old shortstop who hit well in the PCL, but not before that, and in the majors he has a career 58 OPS+ through 700 PAs. Taking one of these is fine; taking both isn't. It's clear we ain't getting Pie, but I'd rather have the previously rumored Marshall, who I wasn't thrilled with, than Murton.
I don't see how that "proves your point," when your "point" was "You'll be upset no matter what the packages look like." That "point" is just not true. I'll be upset if the trade is bad, and I'll be upset if they don't make a trade. In short, I want them to make a good trade. I don't think that's so unreasonable.
I criticized the ones where one of the players we get is Sherrill; wasting part of Bedard's value on Sherrill would border on criminal.
Obviously Jones/Clement is the better package. Sherrill is damn fine reliever, but to echo David, I don't want him either.
And Gallagher/Murton/Cedeno is a fair return for Roberts IMO.
Gallagher is fine. I don't want Cedeno at all. Murton's not a bad player but he's already racked up two years of service time. He'll already be in arbitration next year.
And I agree with you on Penn. The whole thing about 'attitude' is typical Orioles; one of the myriad of ways they justify not using prospects is by finding some flaw -- conditioning, attitude, "head case" -- and hyping that up until people stop looking at the player's actual track record and start focusing on the label. Then the team buries the player until his options run out and cut him, or trade him for dreck.
As valuable as Jones is for the O's, if all they end up with is Jones, Sherrill, Tillman, and a Chen/Tuiasoppo or something, then I'm going to be disappointed. If the inclusion of Sherrill ends up being what precluded them from getting a better long-term prospect, then I'm going to hate Trembley.
You and me both. I've wavered between optimistic and pessimistic lately, as we swerve from rumor to rumor. I don't know Tuiasoppo -- for all I know, you just made up a name -- but Chen isn't anything to write home about, Sherrill is a 31-y.o. LOOGY, and Tillman is a good A-ball pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP). In other words, that's Jones plus filler, and that's just not good enough for Bedard.
Yup, I said this about the Tejada trade and I'll see again here. It's quantity over quality.
It was posted on the Os mailing list,
Which list? I'd like to sign up.
Ah, no. I would have sharpened my pitchfork and lighted the torches on my way to the warehouse.
Not really, since we're getting Jones, F-Mart needs to be in a Mets package.
I'd say the tradeable assets break down like this:
Cheap, but a little on the old side:
Scott
Guthrie
Cabrera
Tradeable at current contract:
Bradford
Walker
Hernandez
Millar
Tradeable if O's eat part of contract:
Payton
Huff
Tradeable if O's eat most/all of contract:
Gibbons
Mora
It's not a lot to work with, but they could scrape together a decent pile of B-/C+ prospects.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure the Orioles understand the concept of a sunk cost when it comes to bad contracts.
Payton
Huff
Huff's trade is at high ebb. He just came off a decent year and I doubt things will get better.
What if Pelfrey or Guerra replaced Humber?
Jones >> Milledge
Tillman ~ Guerra
So it comes down to Gomez needing to be significantly more valuable than the rest of the Seattle package.
In the worst case, it's Sherill and filler, and I'd call the Mets package roughly equal (although I think the Orioles would disagree because they seem to be targetting Sherrill).
I still think there's a chance that the Mariners give up another prospect in this deal, and in that case, the Mets aren't even close.
We'll know soon enough.
Color me disappointed. Where's the offense part of the rebuilding process?
Roberts needs to go next.
As for "delusional," you can't have it both ways. You can't argue that Orioles fans are delusional if they think they could have swapped Sherrill/Butler/Mickolio for someone better AND argue that they're delusional to be disappointed about getting Sherrill/Butler/Mickolio. They can either be valuable prospects or not, but not both. The someone better didn't have to be Clement (in fact, given that the Orioles' top prospect is a catcher, I would have preferred not). Triunfel. Balentien.
For that matter, I'd take someone lower down on the prospect list than Tillman, plus one of those guys.
Where do you get off calling me delusional? If anything, I'm being one of the more realistic fans of the Orioles.
Yes, I don't like the idea that the rumored deal for Roberts alongside the Bedard deal will have netted the team one offensive prospect (and a good one at that) and five billion arms. The Bedard deal is fine but as has been stated by David, I'd have preferred, if at all possible, to exclude Sherrill, Butler, and Mickolio for for another offensive prospect like Clement or Triunfel. Perhaps it was never possible but the idea that a major component of the Bedard deal was always a 31 year old LH reliever is preposterous to me. The O's aren't competing for anything anytime soon and a 31 year old reliever has no value to a rebuilding team.
It's great to have a ton of arms in the system. But half of the guys they're trading for have ceilings as a 3 or 4 starters at best. If the team traded Roberts for Gallagher, Marshall, and Cedeno, it won't have offensive prospects outside of Jones, Markakis, and Wieters. If Rowell and Snyder don't develop, there are huge holes at 1B/2B/SS and potentially at 3B assuming Rowell doesn't pan out. As optimistic as some are about Nolan Reimold, I'm skeptical and his inability to stay healthy leads me to believe he'll likely be a 4th OF. The O's have NOBODY in the minors who could realistically step up in the middle IF and I don't really buy into Ronnie Cedeno being the answer. One of Rowell or Snyder will eventually need to move to 1B. I'm not convinced about Snyder panning out. Hence, the potential hole at 3B. I have huge hopes for Rowell but that's just one piece of the puzzle.
Only a fool would believe that all of the O's top offensive prospects will pan out. And while I'm happy Adam Jones is manning CF, I'm not going to let that euphoria blind me into thinking that the team's offense is set for the future. So great depth at SP which should translate to solid pitching. But poor depth in the system at offensive positions which should translate into a solid-at best--offense. In the AL East, how is that going to get it done especially when you look at the studs in the TB system on both sides and the unlimited resources of Boston and NYY?
So how does that sentiment make me delusional?
I've waited ten years for the team to rebuild and I'll be d*mned if some fool like Matt Clement in Alexandria who knows very little about the state of the O's tells me I'm delusional for having an opinion on the way that rebuilding goes. Ridiculous. It's not like I was saying that the O's should've held out to trade for Kershaw, Kemp, Laroche, and Loney or some ridiculous fantasy like that.
He's right. O's fans are given a huge gift and they are complaining about the color of the wrapping paper. I guess after 10 years of suckitude, carping becomes reflexive. And it's rampant among fans, even the thoughtful ones (see the Belfry).
Why do some Orioles fans continue to believe that either Clement or Triunfel were offered ALONG with Jones? Before you say that Bavasi is a bad GM and point to an example, you could do that for Wayne Krvsky too. Do you think that Bedard could have netted say Bruce and Votto?
Would you have preferred someone like Mike Morse to Sherill? Morse is still only 25.
Or would you prefer another Mickolio type?
Sure. So draft better. Make better FA signings. Make better decisions when signing existing players to new contracts. Make other good trades.
You are not going to get a team that can compete with the RS or Yanks just by wishcasting that some other GM in MLB is an idiot: the constant refrain by some O's fans is that the O's should have gotten Clement or Triunfel, because, well, Bavasi is an idiot.
You got Adam Jones! One of the best young players in baseball! That helps the team long-term. Bedard for Jones would have been a pretty solid trade for the O's.Huh? Of course I can. It's really easy. Sherrill/Butler/Mickolio are throw-ins on top of the excellent return of Jones/Tillman. Asking for more than Jones/Tillman shows a complete disengagement from reality, from the history of trades like this. You're not going to get more. You already got a great return.It wasn't possible. My god. Sherrill, Butler, and Mickolio were never going to be replaced by Triunfel. Maybe if you'd thrown in John Parrish, Bavasi would have given up Ichiro, too.There's a simple answer here, too: he wasn't. The major component of the Bedard deal is Adam Jones. The minor component of the Bedard deal is Chris Tillman. Then you have the throw-ins, they include George Sherrill. He's basically irrelevant to the quality of the trade.
Absolutely. This is a great trade for the Orioles, and exactly what they needed to do. hell, Jones for Bedard straight up would almost be defensible. The fact that they also got two high upside pitchers and a couple of relievers is fantastic.
There's a simple answer here, too: he wasn't. The major component of the Bedard deal is Adam Jones. The minor component of the Bedard deal is Chris Tillman. Then you have the throw-ins, they include George Sherrill. He's basically irrelevant to the quality of the trade.
Exactly. Butler or Sherrill could have been replaced by a guy like Chen I guess, but it's not like he's anything special. Trading 2 or 3 B guys for one A guy doesn't fly in fantasy baseball, why would it work in real life? Sherrill + Butler + Mickolio =/= Triunfel.
See, there you go again--taking what I've said and stretched it to fit into your own delusion. What I've been saying is nothing like this crap you're spewing that I'm delusional enough to think that Bavasi would gut the entire team for the O's crap.
Perhaps it wasn't possible to insist on another offensive prospect. Who knows? Do you? It was stated from the outset of negotiations with Seattle that the O's insisted on Sherrill. So don't give me this crap that he was not a major component. If he wasn't a major component, they wouldn't have asked for him from the outset.
Did I ever state that the team could completely rebuild in one or two trades? No. For crying out loud, I've been realistic for quite a long time. If you've ever seen any of my other posts on this board or any other major baseball boards, I've been wishing beyond all hope the O's would get into the game on international scouting. I've been complaining that the team should focus more on player development. I've been harping on them to stop signing useless, washed up vets and focus on building long term. So just because I stated a preference that the team pick up some offensive prospects in their major trades does not mean that I'm advocating that the team should have rebuilt Rome in one fell swoop.
Jones doesn't have to be as good as Bedard (ever) for this to be a good trade for the O's.
They would have had Bedard for only 2 more years, during which time they had zero chance to compete.
They'll have Jones for 6 years. If Jones puts up a 110 OPS+ for 6 years and plays a good defensive CF, it was a good trade for Balt., regardless of what the other 4 do.
If Jones becomes a star, Sherrill is an effective RP for 3 years, and one of the other 3 becomes a productive major leaguer, it will be a huge fleecing of Seattle.
If Jones is a star, then of course Bedard-for-Jones is a fair deal. But since we don't know whether Jones will be a star, it's not a good trade unless we get more, to account for that uncertainty.
You have uncertainty on the other side of the ledger too, Dave. Pitchers get hurt more often than centerfielders do.
I don't think he needs to be a star, given the salary difference. In 2010, the O's will have Jones and $20M to spend on another player, rather than Bedard.
Of course you could drive each car on alternate days, doubling their effect life. But the analogy is faulty, in any case.
The opportunity cost of this trade is the next best trade that you didn't make. Pretty far down the line would be keeping him for two years and letting him walk for draft picks.
You win in baseball by putting yourself in the best position to contend for the post season, not by maximizing the short-term utility of your players.
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