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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, January 14, 2008
2008 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
This might not come as a great shock considering the Red Sox just won the World Series for the 2nd time this decade, but ZiPS sees the Red Sox as the best team in the AL. Well, technically, I haven't done the Orioles yet, but I'm taking a wild guess that the Orioles aren't going to look better than the Sox on e-paper.No real suprises here. It's a deep team. While they obviously don't have spare better-than-average 1B, DH or LF/RF backups stashed away, nobody really does, and the team is very deep everywhere else. The amount of minor leaguers that project to be non-terrible at up-the-middle positions is downright staggering and I'm not even counting guys like Lars Anderson who should pop up in the 2009 projections.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
David Ortiz* dh 32 .297 .400 .593 153 573 111 170 38 0 44 138 97 121 1 0
Manny Ramirez lf 36 .278 .381 .493 123 442 75 123 26 0 23 98 71 98 0 1
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .290 .367 .489 ------------------------------------------
Kevin Youkilis 1b 29 .286 .388 .444 134 475 79 136 35 2 12 69 71 100 3 2
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .289 .358 .469 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .288 .355 .471 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .285 .352 .462 ------------------------------------------
Dustin Pedroia 2b 24 .292 .359 .431 150 548 75 160 44 1 10 62 51 43 3 1
Jacoby Ellsbury* cf 24 .297 .349 .392 134 549 87 163 34 3 4 58 37 72 43 6
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .283 .345 .436 ------------------------------------------
J.D. Drew* rf 32 .259 .362 .412 104 352 59 91 22 1 10 60 56 77 1 2
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .287 .346 .427 ------------------------------------------
Chris Carter* 1b 25 .278 .339 .438 143 553 56 154 33 2 17 78 50 71 4 2
Jason Varitek# c 36 .249 .350 .408 112 385 50 96 20 1 13 63 56 102 2 1
Eric Hinske* rf 30 .248 .335 .437 104 286 44 71 20 2 10 41 35 82 3 1
Mike Lowell 3b 34 .272 .333 .429 150 552 70 150 40 1 15 64 50 63 1 0
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .285 .339 .418 ------------------------------------------
Brandon Moss* rf 24 .264 .334 .424 152 550 58 145 51 2 11 72 56 147 4 4
Coco Crisp# cf 28 .271 .333 .410 138 527 82 143 33 5 10 65 48 79 22 5
Jon Van Every* cf 28 .253 .322 .448 118 384 37 97 27 3 14 53 36 147 6 6
Jeff Bailey 1b 29 .247 .334 .399 103 348 37 86 22 2 9 50 38 85 3 3
Jed Lowrie# ss 24 .253 .326 .406 136 522 54 132 47 6 7 58 55 96 3 3
Julio Lugo ss 32 .267 .335 .382 142 539 77 144 35 3 7 62 52 96 29 8
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .270 .329 .414 ------------------------------------------
Tony Granadillo# 2b 23 .259 .322 .389 132 506 72 131 38 2 8 54 37 84 2 1
Keith Ginter 3b 32 .235 .326 .381 90 315 32 74 20 1 8 48 36 59 2 0
Josh Reddick* rf 21 .266 .305 .433 112 448 43 119 20 2 17 60 24 68 6 7
George Kottaras* c 25 .243 .316 .389 112 375 35 91 34 0 7 43 39 101 1 1
Bobby Kielty# lf 31 .255 .325 .362 75 235 30 60 13 0 4 34 24 56 0 0
Bobby Scales# 2b 30 .248 .318 .381 126 423 45 105 26 3 8 49 40 107 9 3
Doug Mirabelli c 37 .246 .318 .355 88 276 35 68 15 0 5 36 29 65 1 0
John Barnes sp 32 .270 .310 .382 89 296 32 80 18 0 5 32 16 26 3 3
Junior Spivey 2b 33 .231 .327 .354 58 195 24 45 12 0 4 22 25 52 6 3
Joey Thurston* 2b 28 .264 .316 .377 124 435 51 115 28 3 5 48 27 57 10 10
Gil Velazquez ss 28 .256 .306 .334 101 293 39 75 16 2 1 27 19 57 3 1
Dusty Brown c 25 .235 .282 .371 96 345 33 81 24 1 7 39 21 87 1 0
Alex Cora* 2b 32 .241 .311 .330 80 203 27 49 8 2 2 21 13 23 4 2
Chad Spann 3b 24 .235 .289 .364 123 439 37 103 28 1 9 45 30 128 1 4
Andrew Pinckney# 3b 26 .230 .277 .375 122 456 46 105 32 2 10 52 26 111 3 5
Joe McEwing 2b 35 .245 .289 .338 89 302 28 74 17 1 3 31 15 59 5 4
John Otness c 26 .244 .281 .326 95 344 29 84 20 1 2 29 13 42 1 1
Royce Clayton ss 38 .236 .286 .311 94 305 32 72 20 0 1 28 20 70 5 2
Kevin Cash c 30 .188 .266 .307 73 218 19 41 11 0 5 22 21 69 0 1
Argenis Diaz ss 21 .225 .275 .299 113 479 50 108 28 2 1 34 29 121 5 8
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Ortiz* Pr
Ramirez Pr
Youkilis Av Av
Pedroia Av Fr
Drew* Av Fr Av
Ellsbury* Vg Av Vg
Carter* Fr
Varitek# Fr
Hinske* Av Pr Pr Pr
Lowell Vg
Moss* Av Pr Av
Crisp# Vg Vg
Van Every* Av Fr Av
Bailey Av Av
Lowrie# Av Av Av
Lugo Av Av Av
Granadillo# Av Fr Fr
Ginter Av Fr Av
Reddick* Fr Av
Kottaras* Av
Kielty# Fr Pr Vg
Scales# Fr Fr Pr Fr Fr
Mirabelli Pr
Barnes Av Fr
Spivey Fr Fr Pr
Thurston* Av Vg Fr
Velazquez Vg Fr Vg Fr Av
Brown Av
Cora* Vg Av
Spann Av Av
Pinckney# Av
McEwing Fr Fr Pr Av
Otness Fr Av
Clayton Av
Cash Vg
Diaz Vg
Player Spotlight - Dustin Pedroia
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .314 .388 .481 156 570 92 179 49 2 14 90 61 37 7 0 122 7
Mean .292 .359 .431 150 548 76 160 44 1 10 62 51 43 3 1 102 3
Pessimistic (15%) .266 .324 .362 131 478 55 127 31 0 5 52 39 43 1 2 76 -1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ron Hunt, Billy Herman, Newt Hoenikker
Player Spotlight - Jacoby Ellsbury
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .327 .386 .451 151 618 116 202 44 6 7 83 50 71 60 5 115 8
Mean .297 .349 .392 134 549 87 163 34 3 4 58 37 72 43 6 91 5
Pessimistic (15%) .276 .317 .348 115 471 63 130 26 1 2 46 25 72 30 6 71 1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Richie Ashburn, Vada Pinson
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Jon Papelbon 27 1.57 5 0 61 0 63.0 41 11 4 15 87
Hideki Okajima* 32 3.09 4 1 63 0 64.0 56 22 7 18 65
Josh Beckett 28 3.77 16 9 30 30 191.0 181 80 21 54 172
Manny Delcarmen 26 3.77 4 2 63 0 74.0 69 31 5 36 68
Mike Timlin 42 3.78 4 3 68 0 69.0 72 29 6 19 40
Daisuke Matsuzaka 27 3.95 15 10 29 28 196.0 189 86 22 60 177
Lee Gronkiewicz 29 4.07 4 3 55 1 73.0 74 33 11 15 57
Javier Lopez* 30 4.19 3 2 72 0 58.0 60 27 3 27 36
Brendan Donnelly 36 4.20 3 3 48 0 45.0 45 21 5 16 36
Curt Schilling 41 4.25 11 10 28 28 178.0 191 84 24 26 146
Bryan Corey 34 4.32 6 4 60 0 73.0 75 35 8 26 55
LEAGUEA AVERAGE RELIEVER ----- 4.42 -----------------------------------------------
Craig Breslow* 27 4.44 4 3 55 0 77.0 79 38 8 33 58
Clay Buchholz 23 4.47 9 8 28 27 135.0 134 67 20 53 120
Kyle Snyder 30 4.50 3 3 57 0 66.0 70 33 7 23 48
Tim Wakefield 41 4.62 13 13 30 30 185.0 192 95 26 65 117
Justin Masterson 23 4.68 7 7 22 16 102.0 115 53 11 34 51
Julian Tavarez 35 4.71 6 6 53 12 109.0 121 57 11 41 64
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.81 -----------------------------------------------
Jon Lester* 24 4.93 8 8 30 29 148.0 158 81 18 75 100
Craig Hansen 24 5.03 5 3 49 2 68.0 72 38 5 42 45
Devern Hansack 30 5.31 7 9 27 20 127.0 143 75 23 45 84
Michael Bowden 21 5.50 7 9 27 27 131.0 151 80 22 52 80
Mike Burns 29 5.53 3 5 42 8 83.0 99 51 14 24 44
Michael Tejera* 31 5.65 5 7 33 14 110.0 129 69 17 45 52
Jon Switzer* 28 5.87 2 4 44 5 69.0 76 45 7 27 37
David Pauley 25 6.02 5 8 26 26 151.0 186 101 28 53 75
Abe Alvarez* 25 6.02 5 10 26 21 121.0 146 81 22 50 61
Edgar Martinez 26 6.05 2 5 47 0 64.0 74 43 14 30 43
Kyle Jackson 25 6.81 3 9 46 0 74.0 81 56 15 66 62
Daniel Haigwood* 24 7.29 2 7 22 21 100.0 117 81 23 84 73
John Barnes 32 8.14 3 9 19 16 84.0 100 76 17 105 47
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Josh Beckett
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.08 21 7 33 33 216 186 74 20 51 200 152
Mean 3.77 16 9 30 30 191 181 80 21 54 172 124
Pessimistic (15%) 4.65 10 10 24 24 151 157 78 21 52 125 101
Top Near-Age Comps: Bill Monboquette, Jack McDowell
Player Spotlight - Daisuke Matsuzaka
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.28 18 9 32 31 222 196 81 21 58 208 143
Mean 3.95 15 10 29 28 196 189 86 22 60 177 119
Pessimistic (15%) 4.91 10 11 24 23 154 164 84 22 57 129 96
Top Near-Age Comps: Andy Benes, Bill Singer
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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C - Varitek - 13
1B - Youk - 12
2B - Pedroia - 10
SS - Lugo - 7
3B - Lowell - 15
RF - Drew - 10
CF - Ellsbury - 4
LF - Ramirez - 23
DH - Ortiz - 44
That 37 HR outfield should have AL pitchers quaking in fear.
Drew and Lowell look awful. Basically ZiPS is projecting that Drew is done?
And also, thats a lot of slugging between Ellsbury and Pedroia.
The Ramirez-Crisp-Drew combined for 37 HR in 2007 and while I can't speak for levels of fear and horror, the team did finish 3rd in runs scored (and OPS+) despite finishing 9th in home runs.
Considering that they won the world series after getting 37 HRs from their starting OFs last year, the AL pitchers probably should be quaking in fear.
Philly buddy
Keep in mind these are PROJECTIONS. I mean come on Ellsbury with only 4 homers? Lowells numbers shrinking for no apparent reason? Thats oviously a joke. The Sox will still have one of the top 3 batting lineups in the league. Maybe the Yankees and Tigers will hit more HRs, but the Sox have the pitching. Projections are cool, but real life is better.
Lotta net stolen bases for Ellsbury.
They'll just channel Jim Rice.
Considering Ellsbury only hit 2 home runs in 436 at-bats in the minors, 4 is hardly a stretch. Unless the IL is now a tougher environment than the AL, which I doubt.
As for Lowell, he was good in 2007. And also 50 points about his career BABIP. For his career, his BABIP is only 66 points above his LD%. In 2007, he was 161 points above his LD%. That suggests he's due for a pretty good correction even if you don't consider that he's 34 .
Um, which league has Joba in it?
Sox sign RHP Lee Gronkiewicz
I'd say the 3 triples is the questionably low number.
I have a lot of faith in that Matsuzaka projection, too.
Both the Yankees and Red Sox don't really have the home run power that they did a few years ago although I think Manny will hit more than 23.
Thanks for all these projections Dan!
Geez, way to be an ass, Dan! ;)
Has ZiPS always been so hardcore about aging patterns? Manny's projection just looks ridiculous.
I don't think a 36:27 K:BB ratio is fooling ZiPS. The only reason his ERA is so low is because most of the runs that score off of him are attributed to the pitcher that was in trouble before he comes into the game.
Backing up Dan on Lowell, just compare his 2006 to 2007 numbers. In 20076, he had 1 more HR and 1 more triple but 10 fewer doubles in about 20 more AB/PA. But he had a whopping 36 more singles. Despite the superior numbers, he actually had slightly fewer extra bases last year than in 2006. And in 2006, that was just a 104 OPS+, right about average for a 3B.
Not that you can ignore it, but last year was enough to raise Lowell's career average from 272/339/463 to 280/344/468. For ZiPS, the age (and maybe league) effect is outweighing the career year effect. That projection is almost exactly 2006 Lowell minus 5 HR and 7 doubles. OK, that might be a smidgen much but I think I'd take this projection over one that had him repeating his 2006 numbers (nobody expects a repeat of 2007 do they?)
Anyway, I didn't like the Lowell extension before I saw the ZiPS numbers (and guesstimated him to about an average 3B) and I liked it even less when I saw them. But the Sox got plenty of money.
Javier Lopez
3 HR in 57 IP (11 for 172 in his career, just 6 for 101 in Coors!) lets you get away with a lot.
And Gagne had a 2.70 ERA in ... 13.3 IP. I'll take the +1 run on the ERA, but hopefully 5x on the IP.
LOL. It's not easy rooting for a team out of contention.
For the kids, I'll certainly take the over on most of them-if Zips is devaluing the vets (as it should), it doesn't appear to be upvaluing the kids at all (which it also should). I mean the "Optimistic" on Pedroia is about what he hit last year (with some extra homers which BTW I expect him to hit); again it is possible of course that what he did last year did not represent genuine development, but I think it did. For the kid pitchers I don't mind-much-because historically rookie hurlers experience an adjustment phase, even someone as gifted as Clay, but that doesn't explain the silly 4.93 ERA for Lester. Zips (yes I will now do some examination of the fine print) of course being a mindless killing machine puts sigificant weight on Jed's poor 2006, which explains the low projection-I'd peg him at .270/.340/.430.
I think Dice-K's is spot on: he'll master his command and control enough during his second go-around I think to get it below 4.00. Beckett probably will fall between the median and the optimistic, absent any blister issues.
You think the 36 extra singles were really really good luck, or do you think they represent an actual change/improvement in approach?
ZiPS works from full-line statistical data (IIRC), so partial-line and non-statistical data might be relevant for modifying the projections.
* JD Drew's child was seriously ill last year. Something involving major surgery. Hard to know exactly what effect that might have had on him, but he did have a couple good stretchs (including one in September) and might not be so completely burnt toast as ZiPS expects.
* Ellsbury is on a roughly 250 AB tear, dating back to the beginning of August at Pawtucket and extending through the playoffs. The projection is very "fair" based on his history, but the Red Sox faithful can still hope that this streak represents real improvement rather than simply a statistical fluke. I realize his BABIP has been Ichiro-high, which seems improbable. The HR power seems about right.
* Lowell was his usual self in the first half, with the change coming after the ASB. In 2006 he had 20 hits to right field. In 2007 he had 31. He was pulling the ball in the air, going the other way more on ground balls. Most of the change is probably statistical fluke, but I think he was doing things a little differently as well.
* No question in my mind that Manny will beat this projection if healthy. Which probably means that the projection is dead-on accurate.
* Lester's projections get slammed by some terrible pitching at the end of 2006 and during his minor league rehab in 2007 when he was building strength. I'd take this as a "pessimistic" projection, and in fact am surprised it isn't over 5. I'm expecting something in the 4.50 to 4.75 range personally.
* Masterson can beat those numbers as a reliever (as can most starters).
Also, I remain optimistic on a slight return to form in counting stats for Manny, and I'm hopeful of a bounceback to something approaching mediocrity for Drew, especially with Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis getting on at such good rates.
Awesome as Papelbon's been, that's one hell of a projection. Who *projects* to a 1.57 ERA?
And my work is done here; I'll let those who actually know something about the Red Sox carry on...
Isn't Keith Ginter with the Indians?
Low: Ellsbury, Drew, Lowell, Bucholz, Lester.
I think the Ramirez projection is pretty okay. I see Bucholz as a guy that may have problems staying healthy, but will do well if he can.
I'd take the under on Ortiz and Varitek.
There are nits with every projection, but the over/under has all but two spots (RF/3B) above or near average. And those two spots could get to average or above (esp with defense factored) with a little luck. But the team planned for no luck, as there is a lot of depth.
And the pitching? 7 average+ projections at SP? Wow. 8 in the MR department? Jeeeeezus. It is hard to always remember that a 4.47 ERA for a rookie with 1/2 the starts at Fenway is remarkable.
Now, in the long-term, or for him to be a very good player or near-star, we'll have to hope he develops something like .440 or so power (SLG), though I'm not totally convinced he'll be able to do that.
OK, I'm willing to bet against Ellsbury for any amount.
So, he has to match or exceed .791.
Oh, you mean OPS, not OPS+.
Based on Ellsbury's record, there's very little reason to expect him to put up an ~800 OPS, but given the inherent variability of baseball players, I'm not going to put my money where my mouth is.
Barring injury, of course.
Doesn't the .741 already build in some risk of injury?
FWIW, the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects Ellsbury to have an OPS of .810 next year.
Those projections are regularly the most optimistic handily, both for hitters and pitchers, with none of the other major sets of projections being particularly high or low for anything. The Bill James-branded projections love more players than Annie Savoy.
Puhl was a really good player though. I would've thought a Canuck would appreciate the player that was 3rd all-time in Canadian hits!
Is this true? When there was an evaluation of the projection systems, comparing the projections with actual results, I thought they did pretty well - not the best, but not far off.
For example, he projects Jay Bruce to have a .965 OPS, which is ~140 OPS+. ZiPS and Chone both have Bruce with a sub-800 OPS.
I'm not saying that's impossible, but the top 5 OPS+ since 1980 for a 21-year old:
157 Albert Pujols
155 Ken Griffey
135 Tim Raines
134 Rickey Henderson
130 Miguel Cabrera
Pujols was the only with zero ML at bats coming into his age 21 season (like Bruce).
The reason we remember guys like Sammy Sosa, who actually do radically change their approaches late in their careers, is because they're so spectacularly rare. But when something like Lowell's season comes along, we all want to believe that's what we're seeing, and we come up with reasons why our man is a Sosa situation and not a Norm Cash or Darrin Erstad situation. We latch onto club stories about working with hitting coaches, convince ourselves we're seeing a change in approach that's going to overhaul a guy's production, when frequently those things are not there.
Is it possible that Mike Lowell has turned himself into a different hitter in the Fens than he has ever been anywhere else, than he was in 2006? Sure, I suppose so. But color me skeptical. Yeah, that ZiPs looks scary-low, but leave us not forget that this is a 34-year-old third baseman who doesn't run particularly fast and was pretty obviously on the back end of his career until his BABiP went up last season. I never saw any reason to take last season particularly seriously until he showed an ability to repeat it. When I said I didn't like the extension at the time, people accused me of wanting to maximize efficiency over maximizing wins, and I tried to argue that letting Mike Lowell go would do both. Nobody seemed to understand that at the time, but the kind of scenario projected by ZiPs is what I was talking about: if he hits like that, he's just not that good a player, especially given that it's likely that his defense will decline with age.
In short, I won't be falling out of my chair if Mike Lowell posts a .762 OPS next season, and I'd wager it's more likely than another .880 showing.
That's one way of looking at it. His OPS, year by year, starting in 2000: 818, 788, 817, 880, 870, 662, 814, 879. In other words, his OPS has exceeded 800 six times in the past eight years, and came close in a seventh. I know he's 34, but how can you look at a projected OPS of .762 as anything other than pessimistic? I expect him to decline, but .762 seems too far, given his track record.
Is this true? When there was an evaluation of the projection systems, comparing the projections with actual results, I thought they did pretty well - not the best, but not far off.
I don't think Nate did Bill James.
A-rod had 160 OPS+ in his first full season in the majors, at the age of 20. That of course came on the heels of insanely high .358 BA, and he didn't post OPS+ of 160 again until his age 25 season in Texas. Ironically, at age 21, he had the worst season of his career (so far) posting OPS+ of "only" 120.
I'm very high on Bruce Almighty.
ARod certainly figures on that list, but he also had a 200 PA introduction to the majors before his first full season.
The recent track record of 140 OPS+ seasons with ZERO major league experience at that young of an age essentially begins and ends with Albert Pujols.
We should probably fix a minimum AB total. Somewhere around 250 or more.
As long as that 250 includes minor league ABs, I wouldn't have a problem with that.
Kevin, you "How about beating the OPS+ by at least 50?"
Hence, the confusion.
I believe kevin meant to say ""How about beating the OPS+ by a factor of at least 50?"
kevin gets a lot of crap around here for being a homer, but he's got a firm grip on reality.
He wants to win if Ellsbury sucks for 200 ABs and gets sent down.
* Silver doesn't trumpt PECOTA as the end-all, be-all of projection systems. Now, as for others on the BPro staff...
* I believe the Bill James projections for minor leaguers to be optimistic seemingly across the board - that contributed to my decision not to buy that Handbook this year (tough call, given my completist tendencies).
Speaking of comparisons, Pedroia's aren't shabby either. The risk, of course, is summarized by the career of Brent Gates.
Kevin, they're in the Player Spotlight section here where Dan outlines the optimistic and pessimistic projections.
Considering Ellsbury only hit 2 home runs in 436 at-bats in the minors, 4 is hardly a stretch. Unless the IL is now a tougher environment than the AL, which I doubt.
C'mon Dan, Ellsbury hit 3 HR in 116 ML at bats. Why look at his minor league stats?
Lowells numbers shrinking for no apparent reason? Thats oviously a joke.
No apostrophes for no apparent reason.
As for Lowell, he was good in 2007. And also 50 points about his career BABIP. For his career, his BABIP is only 66 points above his LD%. In 2007, he was 161 points above his LD%. That suggests he's due for a pretty good correction even if you don't consider that he's 34 .
You mean there is an apparent reason? Who knew?
The other two young BoSox outfielders with their closest ZIPS comp (same criteria as above) are.
Brandon Moss: 1) Gwynn (Mil), 2) Lubanski, 3) Choo (Cle)
Josh Reddick: 1) Mather (Stl), 2) Pence (Hou), 3) Kemp (LAD)
Keep in mind these similarity scores are based on the three rate stats listed above and are for offense only and make no differentiation as to age or outfield position.
vr, Xeifrank
Dan, do separate the juicers from the non-juicers when looking at comparitive groups.
I'll take the under on (maybe I'm alone here) Ortiz. I'm fine with the rates, and everything, but (and I know ZIPS doesn't do playing time), isn't it about time he misses 20 or 30 games due to the nagging knee problem, or something else related to him being such a big dude?
I am assuming that you would think that if Ortiz had missed 20 or 30 games in the past couple of seasons, it would be "about time" for him to play a complete season. Gotta love that logic.
They have always been bad. Very bad.
I think they over-rate players diliberately, especially young players, to build up hype and a market for their products. Most of their projections for young players are not even plausible.
PECOTA is by far the best. Just ask the guys over at baseball prospectus.
Personally, I think Kevin is pretty bang-on with his projections. Very knowlegeable guy. People should listen.
Bourn played CF in the minors and will play CF for Houston this year. He was blocked by Aaron Rowand in Philly, but he's supposed to be a very good defender.
I think he's actually a very good comp for Ellsbury.
vr, Xei
I'm pretty sure he hates the Red Sox (who doesn't?), but the only starter on the Red Sox with a .300 career BA is Manny Ramirez.
So, yes, a 36-year old Manny will 'magically' lose his hitting ability next year.
I guess it will be sweet validation for this guy when some one on the Red Sox inevitably hits over .300.
I don't think this means what you think!
Sorry, given how this thread was degenerating into a troll fest, I couldn't help myself.
OK, then, which player that hit above .300 last year should definitely have a mean projection above .300? The 34-year-old career .280 hitter, the 32-year-old career .289 hitter, or the young guy who just had his first .300 season after MLEs in the .270s?
I don't think he is at all. Bourn's a year older than Ellsbury and his only quality play so far since the Sally League is scattered at-bats as a 5th outfielder.
ZiPS thinks they have real good chances to do that, too, of course. I'm incredibly puzzled how someone can look at mean projections of .297, .297, and .292 and think the projection system is claiming that those players "won't" hit .300.
Anyone who looks at this set of projections and feels ZiPS hates the Red Sox should probably be put in a time machine back to 1992 and have to watch what an actual bad Red Sox team looks like (this isn't directed at you Kevin).
The dominant Big Papi who showed he can hit for amazingly high averages and a ton of HRs last year, Mike Lowell who hit for average and power last year also, Pedroia who easily got over .300 in his rookie season, Youk who would have gotten .300 if not for slumps, Jacoby who pitchers struggled to get out, and Manny who every pitcher fears. All of these guys should be above or near the .300 average in your little world of made up stats. So... Manny and Youk didn't hit .300 last year but they can do it easily this year.
The dominant Big Papi who showed he can hit for amazingly high averages and a ton of HRs last year,
The same dominant Big Papi who was below .300 more often than in his career and had a high of .301.
Mike Lowell who hit for average and power last year also,
Mike Lowell also never hit .300 before, isn't young, and there are good indications that he did it with fluky, unsustainable secondary numbers.
Pedroia who easily got over .300 in his rookie season,
And who never had done the equivalent before.
Youk who would have gotten .300 if not for slumps,
And my aunt would be my uncle if she grew a penis.
We're really descending into the morass here. Youk who's never hit .300 in the majors before should be even odds to hit better than .300?
Jacoby who pitchers struggled to get out,
Yet only hit .298 in the minors. Are AAA pitchers superior to MLB pitchers now? That's about as likely as my aunt's penile growth.
Manny who every pitcher fears.
They didn't fear him in 2005 and 2007 then? And he's gotten his new time machine?
But hey, I don't want to disappoint the audience, so I put together a new set of projections.
2008 Fanboy On the Bandwagon Since 2004 Projections - Boston Red Sox
Lowell: 330/420/600
Pedroia: 377/450/400
Ortiz: 368/520/900, 74 HR, 235 RBI
Manny: 336/510/700, QUADRILLION POINT SIX FEAR FACTOR
Ellsbury: 408/470/525
Youkilis: 1.200/1.600/SUMMONED TO OLYMPUS
are you taking pancakehead seriusly? He has been trolling a bunch of "stat" threads these last 2 days. Think its just some Primate bored at work, and trying some mainstream satire.
He's simply going to be too exhausted to have power after be driven in so much!
are you taking pancakehead seriusly? He has been trolling a bunch of "stat" threads these last 2 days. Think its just some Primate bored at work, and trying some mainstream satire.
I certainly hope so. Being called negative after posting projections that have the Red Sox as the best team in baseball and comparing Pedroia and Ellsbury to two Hall-of-Famers just befuddles me to no ends.
Ellsbury is a better prospect, but they are very similar ballplayers.
They are both CFs with plus defense and both are excellent basestealers. Component-wise, they have nearly identical power and walk rates.
The main thing that separates these two is strikeouts. However this difference is pretty important - Ellsbury's lower strikeout rate is worth ~30 points of average and ~60 points of OPS.
106. Mike Piazza Posted: January 15, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2669203)
Once again, this might not mean what you think
You must not understand statistics in baseball. It is impossible for Kevin Youkilis to bat 1.200. You need to check up on your baseball knowledge.
OK, now I know this guy isn't for real.
Actually, it was his Red Sox Nation Awesomness Index, the #1 stat choice for people who can't tell Greenwell from Snackwell.
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