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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
2008 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs
It always feels to me like I should be mocking them for something, but there just isn't a lot for me to complain about. The Cubs aren't an elite organization, but I think they're still the best in the Central and don't have any gaping holes. This team wouldn't compete in the AL East or Central and would need some luck in the AL West, but they don't have to worry about that. When I look at the roster, I feel like there are only a few players that Ed Wade would sign for the Astros, which is a Very Good Thing - much is made about teams with ex-Cubs not winning the World Series, but I think the current-Astros curse will be considerably more potent the next couple of years. Really, the only thing I can whine about is the team just doesn't like Matt Murton.
No, I will not projection Josh Vitters.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Derrek Lee 1b 32 .300 .382 .517 123 460 76 138 32 1 22 78 57 97 7 3
Aramis Ramirez 3b 30 .292 .354 .531 138 524 78 153 32 3 29 100 46 62 1 1
Kosuke Fukudome* rf 31 .293 .382 .460 120 457 66 134 33 2 13 67 64 100 1 1
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .282 .359 .489 ------------------------------------------
Alfonso Soriano lf 32 .286 .336 .527 141 588 97 168 39 2 33 99 39 133 28 9
Matt Murton lf 26 .289 .360 .465 156 471 71 136 27 1 18 63 51 67 3 0
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .281 .352 .469 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .280 .349 .471 ------------------------------------------
Geovany Soto c 25 .284 .342 .483 139 458 44 130 29 1 20 73 41 109 0 0
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .277 .346 .457 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .275 .339 .433 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .279 .340 .422 -----------------------------------------
Micah Hoffpauir* 1b 28 .265 .321 .459 105 370 36 98 22 1 16 61 30 65 2 1
Mark DeRosa 2b 33 .276 .349 .405 125 417 56 115 23 2 9 55 43 83 1 2
Daryle Ward* 1b 33 .263 .342 .413 87 179 21 47 12 0 5 30 21 35 0 1
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .277 .332 .415 ------------------------------------------
Mike Fontenot* 2b 28 .268 .333 .412 144 456 65 122 29 5 9 48 44 86 7 4
Matt Craig# 3b 27 .256 .326 .421 122 399 44 102 26 2 12 52 38 103 3 1
Felix Pie* cf 23 .269 .321 .429 148 539 71 145 27 7 15 61 40 122 20 9
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .263 .324 .412 ------------------------------------------
Josh Kroeger* rf 25 .257 .307 .439 129 456 49 117 28 2 17 59 31 118 8 4
Jake Fox c 25 .254 .301 .439 124 465 43 118 30 1 18 64 23 113 5 2
Sam Fuld* cf 26 .261 .329 .377 114 403 59 105 28 2 5 34 36 62 14 3
Eric Patterson* 2b 25 .264 .318 .406 151 571 73 151 27 6 14 61 44 103 28 11
Steve Clevenger* 1b 22 .281 .321 .362 93 334 36 94 18 0 3 29 20 29 1 1
Ryan Theriot ss 28 .266 .324 .348 143 492 71 131 25 3 3 42 41 51 25 4
Ronny Cedeno ss 25 .271 .312 .398 141 462 52 125 20 3 11 48 26 86 9 7
Henry Blanco c 36 .235 .286 .383 51 149 14 35 8 1 4 20 10 26 0 0
Koyie Hill# c 29 .237 .292 .351 64 194 17 46 13 0 3 20 15 35 1 1
Casey McGehee 3b 25 .243 .288 .361 140 502 42 122 30 1 9 53 32 95 1 3
Brian Dopirak 1b 24 .233 .278 .370 106 386 26 90 23 0 10 42 22 111 1 1
Tyler Colvin* cf 22 .236 .267 .380 136 518 50 122 33 3 12 60 18 143 17 9
Nate Spears* 2b 23 .222 .289 .297 130 414 46 92 18 2 3 29 32 80 7 2
Chris Walker cf 27 .247 .289 .329 100 356 35 88 13 2 4 29 19 82 17 13
Ryan Harvey rf 23 .210 .239 .365 95 353 28 74 16 0 13 40 12 106 2 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Lee Av
Ramirez Av
Fukudome* Vg Av Vg
Soriano Vg Av
Murton Av Fr
Soto Av Av
Hoffpauir* Av Fr Fr
DeRosa Av Vg Pr Av Av
Ward* Fr Pr Pr
Fontenot* Av Av Pr
Craig# Av Pr
Pie* Vg Av Vg
Kroeger* Fr Fr Fr
Fox Fr Av Pr Pr
Fuld* Vg Vg Vg
Patterson* Fr Av Av Av
Clevenger* Fr Av
Theriot Av Av Av Av Av
Cedeno Av Av
Blanco Vg Av
Hill# Av
McGehee Pr Av Fr
Dopirak Av
Colvin* Vg Av
Spears* Av
Walker Av Fr Av
Harvey Vg Vg
Player Spotlight - Derrek Lee
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .327 .414 .578 129 483 92 158 41 1 26 94 67 88 10 3 150 3
Mean .300 .382 .517 123 460 76 138 32 1 22 78 57 97 7 3 127 0
Pessimistic (15%) .270 .343 .458 111 415 59 112 27 0 17 63 45 97 4 4 102 -2
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Pedro Guerrero, Bob Watson
Player Spotlight - Felix Pie
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .302 .362 .505 160 582 92 176 35 10 21 92 54 112 29 6 119 8
Mean .269 .321 .429 148 539 71 145 27 7 15 61 40 122 20 9 89 5
Pessimistic (15%) .239 .282 .364 130 473 50 113 21 4 10 52 28 116 11 9 63 1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Corey Patterson, Dave Martinez
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Bobby Howry 34 3.16 7 6 76 0 74.0 65 26 7 17 67
Mike Wuertz 29 3.33 4 3 69 0 73.0 60 27 7 32 84
Carlos Zambrano 27 3.70 14 11 32 32 207.0 177 85 22 100 189
Kerry Wood 31 3.72 2 1 30 0 29.0 23 12 4 14 33
Carlos Marmol 25 3.77 5 3 77 0 86.0 71 36 10 50 93
Scott Eyre* 36 3.81 2 1 67 0 59.0 53 25 6 31 60
Rich Hill* 28 3.88 10 9 31 29 181.0 160 78 27 60 190
Neal Cotts* 28 4.08 2 2 59 0 64.0 58 29 7 35 58
Carmen Pignatiello* 25 4.24 3 3 56 0 70.0 68 33 8 28 57
Ted Lilly* 32 4.24 12 12 31 31 176.0 165 83 25 67 158
Ryan Dempster 31 4.25 5 5 70 0 72.0 68 34 7 34 62
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.36 -----------------------------------------------
Jose Ascanio 23 4.50 3 4 49 3 88.0 91 44 8 39 55
Angel Guzman 26 4.64 3 3 17 12 66.0 67 34 8 28 56
Juan Mateo 24 4.64 6 9 29 23 130.0 134 67 16 45 93
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.78 -----------------------------------------------
Sean Gallagher 22 4.91 6 9 29 24 143.0 144 78 16 79 104
Sean Marshall* 25 4.97 6 8 22 21 116.0 124 64 17 49 75
Jason Marquis 29 5.06 9 14 30 29 176.0 189 99 28 66 96
Les Walrond* 31 5.11 5 8 25 19 118.0 128 67 17 52 77
Billy Petrick 24 5.12 2 2 37 0 51.0 54 29 9 19 34
Wade Miller 31 5.14 2 3 13 13 63.0 67 36 9 32 45
Steve Trachsel 37 5.20 5 10 23 23 128.0 141 74 19 57 62
Adam Harben 24 5.61 3 7 21 17 93.0 103 58 10 61 45
Donald Veal* 23 5.72 6 12 29 28 140.0 141 89 23 110 115
Kevin Hart 26 5.73 5 11 29 25 154.0 168 98 30 69 107
Mark Holliman 24 5.89 6 13 25 24 142.0 160 93 28 73 83
Ryan O'Malley* 28 6.15 4 9 29 19 120.0 146 82 26 40 58
Tim Lahey 26 6.19 3 8 51 0 80.0 92 55 14 43 47
Jeff Samardzija 23 6.27 3 8 21 19 99.0 122 69 20 39 37
Mike Nannini 28 6.90 1 5 35 5 73.0 86 56 21 36 53
Mitchell Atkins 22 7.16 4 14 27 25 137.0 166 109 40 73 82
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Ted Lilly
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.57 16 10 34 34 199 172 79 25 67 188 129
Mean 4.24 12 12 31 31 176 165 83 25 67 158 109
Pessimistic (15%) 5.28 7 12 25 25 138 144 81 25 62 114 87
Top Near-Age Comps: Floyd Bannister, Howie Pollet
Player Spotlight - Carlos Zambrano
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.04 18 8 34 34 228 179 77 20 97 217 152
Mean 3.70 14 11 32 32 207 177 85 22 100 189 125
Pessimistic (15%) 4.53 9 11 26 26 163 153 82 21 92 137 102
Top Near-Age Comps: Andy Messersmith, Pete Harnisch
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Rangers
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Rays
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Cardinals
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Mariners
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Giants
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Padres
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Pirates
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Phillies
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A's
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Yankees
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Mets
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Twins
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Brewers
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Dodgers
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Angels
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Royals
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Astros
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Marlins
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Tigers
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Rockies
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Indians
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Reds
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White Sox
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 09, 2008 at 02:07 PM | 106 comment(s)
Related News: Chi Cubs, ZIPS
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I've never looked into it, but some people seem to think there is - DTs have age relative to level as a component of the translation.
"Asshat" was your term, not mine.
If I called Dan a "moron", "############", or "shithead", then that would be uncalled for. And I wouldn't do that.
But when I simply continued your humorous (I thought, maybe you were being serious) scenario from 5 posts earlier, I don't think my intent is too hard to figure out. Probably not overly skilled, true. But also certainly not subtle.
Walt was saying his joke was too subtle. The poster picked up that you were joking but thought Walt was serious in calling you out.
Or are you being subtle now too?
I was then trying to humorously take the high road. That's what I get for not using a smiley.
I assume you'll do a TO on the Lieber signing, but if not, could you post his Wrigley Field projection here?
Thanks!
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