BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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1. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 27, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2654342)

The Reds should be another one of the NL's huge middle class.

Dan, the "middle class" comment intrigues me. You've done a great job detailing the AL's power strcture from team projection to team projection (talking about the concept of the "Big 5" and so forth); now that the NL's projections are almost done (great job on all of them from both leagues, by the way), how do you see its caste system shaking out?

2. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2654350)

Dan, unless I'm way wrong, it looks like you've got a line slight worse then Bruce's pessimistic line in the team projection list.

Who did they trade Hamilton to?

Given the difference in defense, I'd rather have Phillips.

3. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2654354)

I thought the Reds dumped Cantu to make room for a Rule Fiver?

4. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2654355)

Hamilton is a Ranger now, IIRC.

5. AJM Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:09 PM (#2654357)

I hope Bruce hits his optimistic, I have his rookie card.

6. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2654358)

Who did they trade Hamilton to?

Texas

That's a pretty dim line for Hatteberg. If the team is intent on using him over Votto then moving Dunn and some of those second basemen might bolster the pitching at little relative cost to the offense.

7. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2654359)

Ack, that's Bruce's 2007 projection. I'll fix it.

Hamilton was traded for Edinson Volquez.

Cantu was dumped, but it's his most recent team.

8. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:12 PM (#2654360)

Speaking of Cantu, I can't understand why the Reds unloaded him, only to end up turning to Keppinger. Cantu is two years younger, his ZiPS (as a Red) seems to compare favorably with Keppinger.

9. AJM Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2654362)

Isn't Cantu's D really terrible?

10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2654364)

Those home run totals seem pretty low for Bruce's optimistic projection.

11. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:17 PM (#2654366)

Um, nevermind then.

12. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2654367)

#9: ZiPS sez it is, at 2B, at least. Looks like Keppinger can play at-least-average defense all over the diamond, too.

13. NJ is feeling better Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2654369)

Dan, could you give ZIPs pessimistic and optimistic ratings for Rasmus? If not, could you just give us a general sense of who ZIPs seems to like more and why? Thanks.

14. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2654371)

Wow, even at his age, Freel still checks in at EX in RF, and seems to be holding it down in CF and LF.

15. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2654375)

Cantu's bad enough that I could have arguably given him *no* defensive rating at his primary position. In 125 games at 2B (majors and minors) the last 2 years, I have him at -19 runs.

16. YLT Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2654391)

Zips says .239/.366/.498 for Dunn? Ouch. That's substantially worse than BIS's .251/.386/.537 and last year's 2008 PECOTA of .267/.398/.581. Why do you think zips is so down on Dunn?

17. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2654396)

I couldn't find the TO article on the Hamilton trade. Why did they get rid of him? Is Jay Bruce simply a lock to start at CF in 2008? Wasn't Hamilton good enough to keep around, instead of some of these other spare parts like Hatteberg and Freel?

Seems like a 2008 outfield of Hamilton, Bruce, and Griffey (who they are stuck with) could have been pretty good.

18. tyler Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2654402)

I think I missed the Hamilton Zips - can anyone give me a pointer?

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2654409)

Zips says .239/.366/.498 for Dunn? Ouch. That's substantially worse than BIS's .251/.386/.537 and last year's 2008 PECOTA of .267/.398/.581. Why do you think zips is so down on Dunn?

Guys like him age badly and pretty early. While Dunn may be comparable in some ways to Jack Cust or a poor man's Ryan Howard, he's generally also had lower line-drive rates and significantly lower BABIPs than the type.

It's kinda unfortunate that Dunn is likely to be actually overrated after he hits the free agent mark, as it could reinforce the opinion of the general public that he's been overrated so far, even though he hasn't been.

20. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2654415)

Well, #18, Hamilton's current team is the Rangers. The projections for that team came out before the Rangers dealt for Hamilton.

So, I guess you'll have to download the next ZiPS build to see a Hamilton update.

21. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2654428)

As an aside: I wonder who is BTF's "most famous" Reds' fan? I'm thinking of someone comparable to Vlad for the Pirates or Harvey's Wallbangers for the Brewers.

22. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:01 PM (#2654431)

I have Hamilton at 281/349/491, OPS+ of 116, 334 at-bats, significantly smaller than average reliability.

23. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2654437)

Wiki sez the following are Reds fans: charityslave, Dolf Lucky, GGT, Red Menace, The Dirty Frenchman, traderdave, vortex of dissipation.

I first thought of Greg Pope.

24. tyler Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2654443)

Great, thanks Dan.

25. Hooked on Phoenix Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2654450)

Brandon Phillips' line seems awfully pessimistic following his 30/30 campaign, especially since he's entering his Age 27 year. Any explanation for the drop-off?

26. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2654456)

#23:

I can't recall a recent Greg Pope sighting (new handle?), but I've seen some vortex and traderdave posts in the last couple months.

27. Gern Blanston Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2654463)

Brandon Phillips' line seems awfully pessimistic following his 30/30 campaign, especially since he's entering his Age 27 year. Any explanation for the drop-off?

I was thinking the same thing, but I'm guessing Phillips' several years of utter suckitude preceding '07 played into it heavily. I suspect he'll maintain more of his value than that projection indicates, but I'll let the number cruncher comment on that further.

28. JPWF13

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2654494)

Cantu's projection: .279/.324/.457 seems awfully optimistic considering how he's played the last 2 years...
Cincy having him was a bit odd, already having Keppinger and Phillips...

29. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2654510)

#28: Yeah, .280 with decent power. I thought he was going to be the answer for TB at 2B, but I haven't seen his apparently apocalyptic defense.

30. Ziggy Posted: December 27, 2007 at 08:56 PM (#2654707)

Can I be the least famous reds fan?

31. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2007 at 09:26 PM (#2654733)

So Alicia Silverstone is an Angels fan?

32. Traderdave

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 09:43 PM (#2654747)

I thought Ericv Milton's deal was up -- why does he show up in ZIPS?

33. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 09:56 PM (#2654762)

#32:

The Most Recent Team Rule?

I got burned on that earlier when I brought up Cantu.

34. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2654784)

Here are Phillips combined translations/MLB numbers by year (OPS+).

Age OPS+
2000 80
2001 98
2002 44
2003 86
2004 64
2005 88
2006 88
2007 105
ZiPS08 90

35. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2654785)

That's not bad considering his age.

36. Moe Greene Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:48 PM (#2654795)

Dan, when will the Transaction Oracle weigh in on the Josh Hamilton trade?

37. Moe Greene Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:50 PM (#2654797)

I'm surprised to see Encarnacion listed as an average defender. I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that most defensive systems have him as convincingly below average.

38. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:56 PM (#2654799)

I have Encarnacion at 3 runs worse than average the last 2 years. I'm projecting him at 5 runs worse, which is just above my threshold for FR.

PMR has him at roughly 10 runs worse total over the last 2 years (and really good in 2005, oddly enough). CHONE has him significantly worse (12 runs below average for 2008). I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).

39. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:19 AM (#2654979)

I can't believe you have Hopper and Freel as better outfielders defensively than Chris Dickerson...

40. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:21 AM (#2654982)

I'm dissapointed that you did not project Belisle for closer to 200 innings and 30 starts considering he pitched 177.7 innings over 30 starts last year in his first as a starter. You have him as our third best starter too!

41. greenback

Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:08 AM (#2655019)

It's funny to me that David Weathers keeps soldiering on while Richard Hidalgo has been out of baseball the past two years.

42. Not The Real Fausto Carmona (Dan Lee) Posted: December 28, 2007 at 10:04 AM (#2655071)

I think the Reds might be better off with Harland Williams in center field than Marland Williams. He probably wouldn't be able to match that ZiPS projection, but he'd be a whole lot funnier.

43. Moe Greene Posted: December 28, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2655343)

I can't believe you have Hopper and Freel as better outfielders defensively than Chris Dickerson...

Not only that, but Freel projects to have more GRIT than Hopper.

44. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 29, 2007 at 05:19 AM (#2656077)

I think the Reds are a definite sleeper in the NL this year. I also think it would be a huge mistake for them to package their prospects for a front line starter like Bedard. If they hang onto their front line prospects, they could be a contender in the NL Central for years.

45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 29, 2007 at 05:21 AM (#2656078)

I also still don't get why Dayton Moore traded Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger, then turned around and traded Keppinger for nothing. He also traded Donnie Murphy for cash. Not that any are some great shakes, but they'd all give you a .700- .750 OPS or so with decent defense (except Gotay) at minimum wage.

46. Runscreated Posted: December 31, 2007 at 12:24 AM (#2657063)

Any chance of Dusty Baker changing his stripes and letting Jay Bruce and Joey Votto play all year. His aversion to rookies made some for lame lineups (see Shawon Dunston, Neifi Perez).

47. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 31, 2007 at 03:19 AM (#2657140)

I can't believe you have Hopper and Freel as better outfielders defensively than Chris Dickerson...

This is probably more a matter of experience than anything else. Dickerson has the skills to be a good defensive outfielder, but also has a lot to learn about playing CF in the majors (something that he likely will not get much of a chance to do any time soon).

-- MWE

48. AROM Posted: December 31, 2007 at 05:06 AM (#2657173)

I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).

49. Chris Dial Posted: December 31, 2007 at 05:15 AM (#2657176)

AROM, Mike,
I thanked you in my piece (front page). Let me know if I misspoke, or should edit it.

50. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 31, 2007 at 06:50 AM (#2657196)

Not sure why. Any defensive projections I have out there, I say use them (or don't use them) as you see fit. I owe every bit of data I put out there to the people who put out Stats and BIS zone rating, and those who work behind the scenes for retrosheet.

OK, good enough for me! I still can't let you escape without at least a credit for when I incorporate them with my stuff, probably next year.

51. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2007 at 11:46 PM (#2657726)

Interesting that Encarnacion projects as, by a good margin I suspect, the Reds' best player. I wonder if anyone in the coaching and front office staff in Cincy realize this.

52. AROM Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:03 AM (#2658100)

OK, good enough for me! I still can't let you escape without at least a credit for when I incorporate them with my stuff, probably next year.

Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.

53. DCW3 Posted: January 02, 2008 at 06:46 AM (#2658142)

Interesting that Encarnacion projects as, by a good margin I suspect, the Reds' best player.

I don't know if that's true. If you believe AROM's defensive projections (which have Encarnacion at -12), then Phillips projects as a clearly superior player overall. Maybe Gonzalez too.

54. AROM Posted: January 02, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#2658199)

For Encarnacion the STATS zone rating has him at +1, but he's -23 by the BIS zone rating.

55. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 02, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2658206)

56. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: January 02, 2008 at 02:43 PM (#2658211)

I can't find the info to justify the following but Brandon Phillips had a ridiculously fortunate season in 2007. At least offensively. Defensively he is the best the Reds have and it's not close.

I think Dunn will beat that projection easily. The lad has worked on controlling his weight and he's in his walk year. He is my sleeper NL MVP candidate. If Dunn puts up .280/.440/.620 in 2007 I will be unsurprised. A 50 homer season perhaps.

And then he will leave.

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