BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:02 PM (#2651644)

Is Choo in the Indians future plans? I don't get why he doesn't get more of a shot.

2. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2651647)

Wow, Zips projects that they have an average CFer on their bench. I've never even heard of him. Is Francisco their 5th OFer?

WTF happened to Josh Barfield? He was supposed to be good.

3. Al Kaline Trio Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:11 PM (#2651654)

Wow Fausto is one devil of a pitcher!

4. Mike Green Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:31 PM (#2651664)

That is one fine projection for a 22 year old shortstop.

5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2651665)

That's a lot of solid rotation candidates - gotta think some trades are in the works to make room for Miller, Laffey? What do they do with Lee? Sowers?

6. The District Attorney Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2651669)

Welp, Marte's finished if he puts up that projection.

Byrd on Human GAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Hormone. Perez not looking so hot either. And based on this, they might as well trade Gutierrez as has been discussed some.

OTOH, terrific projection for Miller.

How's Peralta's defense, really? He looks godawful to me, and his reputation is pretty bad so far as I know, but Strat-O-Matic gave him a "3" (average.)

7. Robert S. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2651698)

How often was Carmona throwing his sinker for called strikes last year? How often was he getting swings and misses on sinkers in the zone?

8. Tony H. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2651701)

Peralta's defense has been the subject of much debate. After the '06 season the front office said they went back and watched every single ball hit to him and concluded his range was among the worst in the major leagues. It supposedly improved this year, but frankly I didn't think by a whole heck of a lot. His hands seem pretty good to me, and he has a strong, though at times erratic, throwing arm.

9. Greg Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2651706)

Pitch F/X says

822 Sinkers
303 Balls (36.9%)
143 strikes called (17.4%)
51 strikes swinging (6.2%)
147 fouls/foul tips (17.9%)
127 in play for outs (15.5%)
51 Hits (6.2%)

I have no idea how that matches up with other sinkerballers though

10. Greg Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2651709)

Derek Lowe
Balls - 37.6%
Strikes Called - 20.7%
Strikes Swung - 5.9%
Fouls - 14.3%
In Play Outs - 14.1%
Hits - 7.3%

11. Tony H. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2651714)

It also seemed as if Carmona started getting a lot more swings and misses as the season went along. In April and May he struck out 3.1 and 3.5 batters per nine innings. The rest of the season he had no month in which he struck out less than 6 per inning.

I have no idea if that is indicative of anything.

12. Russ Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2651716)

How is Francisco's defense? I don't understand how a guy like that hasn't been traded yet with Sizemore ahead of him.

13. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2651720)

Rafael Perez should destroy his projection. But maybe I'm biased...

14. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2651724)

Can we ever see last year's ZIPS projections next to this past season's actual numbers or is that too hard to do.

15. Darren

Posted: December 21, 2007 at 08:07 PM (#2651790)

Francisco was available in the rule 5 after 05 or 06, IIRC. He seemed like a good pickup then too. Maybe his defense is really bad.

16. zempf Posted: December 21, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2651791)

Is Choo in the Indians future plans? I don't get why he doesn't get more of a shot.

He had some elbow problems that shut him down last year & ended up getting TJ surgery in September, though he's supposed to be back for spring training.

17. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2007 at 10:56 PM (#2651900)

I'm a little surprised Westbrook projects that well -- sure, it's his track record but track record didn't keep the fairly similar Carlos Silva from having horrible projections. (Note, I think that's a reasonably accurate projection for Westbrook, just surprised it looks that good)

Also ZIPS seems to have gone on a bender just before cranking these out because it's clearly blacked out Cliff Lee's 2007. :-)

18. chris p Posted: December 21, 2007 at 11:20 PM (#2651918)

dan, sizemore only average in center?

19. Frisco Cali Posted: December 21, 2007 at 11:28 PM (#2651923)

Can we ever see last year's ZIPS projections next to this past season's actual numbers or is that too hard to do.

You don't have them all memorized? Clearly you watch too many actual baseball games.

Assuming Gutierrez hits his ZIPS projection, does his sublime defense make up for his subpar offense?

20. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 21, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2651931)

Crispy, I use mostly ZR for defensive evaluations, which had Sizemore on the AV/VG border, but I use PMR when it's close to tilt one way or the other and his numbers there are generally weak. Aging also costs another 0.75 of a run, so I have Sizemore pegged around a +3 to +5 runs, which I still count as AVG (I generally go to VG and FR at 6 runs above and below, EX and PR at 12, using EX extremely rarely for minor leaguers because of the uncertainty).

21. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 22, 2007 at 12:33 AM (#2651967)

I thought the DMB thresholds were more like 8 and 16...

22. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 22, 2007 at 01:45 AM (#2652003)

Welp, Marte's finished if he puts up that projection.

ZiPS didn't like Marte last year either; had him at 234/318/420 entering 2007

23. DosRafaels Posted: December 22, 2007 at 01:47 AM (#2652005)

Wow, Zips projects that they have an average CFer on their bench. I've never even heard of him. Is Francisco their 5th OFer?

Generalissimo Ben Francisco, as Sickels calls him, is probably about a league avg CF defensively. One of his best attributes is that for a RH hitter he crushes righties. Alot of Cleveland fans like myself thought that he should have replaced Trot right about midseason. He's been a little old for his levels, but like Big League Choo he hasn't gotten much of a chance to shine.

On another note, the only thing frustrating about Shapiro right now is that with our depth he hasn't been able to swing a trade for an impact bat in LF or 3B. I like pitching depth as much as the next guy, but we might need another hitter more.

24. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 22, 2007 at 02:28 AM (#2652021)

...possibly the best 1-2 in baseball unless Liriano quickly gets bad to where he is.

I take it you're not optimistic of a full recovery?

25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 22, 2007 at 03:53 AM (#2652060)

I'll take the over on Astrubal

26. xeifrank Posted: December 22, 2007 at 06:31 AM (#2652086)

Cleveland's three young outfielders... Sizemore, Choo and Gutierrez are the most similiar in terms of 2008 ZIPS projections to the following young outfielders (25 years old and less) from other teams.

Sizemore's closest comp is Rasmus.
Choo's closest comp is Buck
Gutierrez's closest comp is Huffman.

vr, Xei
Author of Dodger Sims blog.

27. Not The Real Fausto Carmona (Dan Lee) Posted: December 23, 2007 at 03:21 PM (#2652637)

First reactions:
There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection. I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats, and the under on Aaron Fultz's starts.

As for Peralta, I assume what's eventually going to happen is that he moves to third, Droobs moves from second to short, and someone else (Josh Barfield?) plays second base. The question is whether Peralta moves to third before or after Barfield runs out of options.

28. Russ Posted: December 23, 2007 at 04:39 PM (#2652658)

I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats

Aubrey will always be in my bad books for not turning out to be a decent major league hitter, so that I could shove the Maholm pick up Littlefield's a-double-s for the rest of eternity. There was no reason to take Maholm over Aubrey or Ian Stewart (or Milledge or Aaron Hill) at the time.

29. Jonk Posted: December 24, 2007 at 12:31 AM (#2652842)

First reactions: There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection.

Why?

30. xeifrank Posted: December 24, 2007 at 06:43 AM (#2652971)

I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats, and the under on Aaron Fultz's starts.

I don't believe ZIPS is in the business of projecting playing time. Look more closely at the rate stats.

vr, Xei

31. limozeen Posted: December 24, 2007 at 06:51 AM (#2652973)

Dave, would you mind posting a ZiPS for Brian Barton? He wasn't in the Cardinals' projections, and now he isn't here. Thanks, and keep up the good work!

32. limozeen Posted: December 24, 2007 at 06:52 AM (#2652974)

And of course, I mean Dan. Haha, sorry about that!

33. Not The Real Fausto Carmona (Dan Lee) Posted: December 24, 2007 at 07:08 AM (#2652980)

First reactions: There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection.

Why?

I'll just copy and paste what I wrote in the Lee-Bay trade talks thread a few weeks ago:

He's either hurt, not that great, or both.

Lee went through a "dead arm" period shortly after the All-Star break in '04, and had an 8.22 ERA in his last 14 starts that year with 17 home runs allowed in 65.2 IP. The next season, his K/9 fell by about 1.7. In '06, it fell even more and his HR/9 skyrocketed. In '07, his K/9 and HR/9 stayed about the same and his walk rate increased.

Also in '07, he got into a fight with Victor Martinez, which is not something you do if you want to stay popular in the Tribe clubhouse.

I think the guy's damaged goods, be it physically, emotionally, or mentally. He's caught in a vortex of suck, and frankly I think you can stick a fork in him as far as being a good major league starting pitcher. And I think the Indians need to trade him now while he still has value.

34. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 25, 2007 at 02:31 AM (#2653289)

eh, there's only one Big 5, and it's in college basketball.

35. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 25, 2007 at 05:00 AM (#2653309)

I think the one that surprises me most is Lofgren, although his 2007 was more "good for a 21-year-old in AA" than just flat good.

Seeing all these makes me even more glad the Pirates didn't take that Bay proposal that was floating around at the winter meetings.

36. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: December 25, 2007 at 07:43 AM (#2653331)

eh, there's only one Big 5, and it's in college basketball.

And in sporting goods. And Hawaiian oligarchies.

37. "Andruw for HoF" sure died down Posted: December 25, 2007 at 08:57 AM (#2653336)

Wonder what the Dodgers/Indians fans think of the Bradley for Gutierrez trade now - was it worth it?

38. Harvey Berkman Posted: December 26, 2007 at 11:06 AM (#2653513)

I'll take the under on Lara

39. jay gibbons Posted: December 27, 2007 at 12:26 PM (#2654177)

do you use stats like gb%, fb%, k%, and bb% to predict pitcher's future era's? (i'm wondering because cc's era was quite similar to his dips, while fausto's dips was far worse, yet fausto has the much better projection)

40. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 27, 2007 at 11:14 PM (#2654809)

Stephen Head - a lefthanded pitcher with his size, lefthandedness, and statistical profile as a collegian would be a good candidate for a position change. I suppose he's got a year or two to get it going.

41. kwarren Posted: December 30, 2007 at 01:09 PM (#2656797)

Dan, or anybody else who has this information available.

I think you published a conversion factor to estimate the difference in pitcher's ERA wjen moving from the rotation to the bullpen and vice versa. I believe that ZIPS uses it for it's projections when a pitcher is expected to change roles. Meyers etc.

If you have that information could you please provide it again...Thanks

42. Oklahawg Posted: December 31, 2007 at 02:15 AM (#2657115)

I read somewhere today that Choo would not be ready for spring training. He's out of options, meaning he'll be in extended ST until he can play in the field. This will give Francisco and Michaels more ABs early, or so it appears. I love Francisco, but feel he needs a clear shot at starting 5 times a week to continue development.

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