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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, December 21, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians
The Indians should be one of the Big 5 again in 2008. While they didn't do something big like land Cabrera (which, of course, would be nice), they're still a solid team that has a terrific 1-2 punch for the playoffs, possibly the best 1-2 in baseball unless Liriano quickly gets bad to where he is. The pitching rotation has a bunch of spares, especially if Jeremy Sowers can turn things around a bit. The offense is shallower, but none of their prime contributors are all that old. I wouldn't be suprised if the Indians are a player in the trade deadline this year and trade off a pitcher or two for an outfielder. Garko will beat that projection.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Travis Hafner* dh 31 .276 .389 .508 143 508 87 140 29 1 29 108 88 116 1 1
Grady Sizemore* cf 25 .287 .376 .491 160 637 122 183 39 8 25 96 78 134 23 8
Victor Martinez# c 29 .303 .378 .472 146 551 76 167 36 0 19 97 63 73 0 0
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .279 .359 .466 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .277 .366 .447 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .277 .362 .448 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .274 .359 .439 ------------------------------------------
Ryan Garko 1b 27 .273 .350 .448 138 480 61 131 27 0 19 73 42 97 1 2
David Dellucci* lf 34 .257 .349 .442 82 226 41 58 11 2 9 39 30 56 2 1
Jhonny Peralta ss 26 .275 .350 .437 147 552 89 152 30 1 19 80 62 141 2 2
Shin-Soo Choo* lf 25 .281 .347 .421 115 413 60 116 22 3 10 52 41 92 17 7
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .272 .350 .416 ------------------------------------------
Ben Francisco cf 26 .274 .335 .437 133 492 62 135 32 3 14 62 41 90 18 8
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .276 .351 .405 ------------------------------------------
Casey Blake 3b 34 .261 .333 .422 134 495 69 129 28 2 16 74 47 107 3 3
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .274 .342 .398 ------------------------------------------
Kelly Shoppach c 28 .245 .316 .442 86 265 39 65 16 0 12 42 26 95 0 0
Michael Aubrey* 1b 26 .263 .310 .442 58 224 22 59 14 1 8 29 12 44 0 0
Trot Nixon* rf 34 .259 .351 .367 92 297 38 77 17 0 5 41 40 47 0 0
Franklin Gutierrez rf 25 .268 .332 .422 142 467 72 125 28 1 14 57 43 109 11 7
Jason Michaels lf 32 .269 .335 .394 101 312 50 84 16 1 7 43 29 58 4 3
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .260 .346 .393 ------------------------------------------
Kenny Lofton* cf 41 .279 .340 .356 98 348 55 97 11 5 2 37 33 32 17 4
Jason Cooper* lf 27 .231 .310 .414 109 372 50 86 23 3 13 56 40 116 4 3
Asdrubal Cabrera# ss 22 .258 .322 .384 150 554 82 143 32 4 10 61 50 103 18 8
Brad Snyder* rf 26 .236 .312 .386 110 373 40 88 19 2 11 45 39 146 11 1
Josh Barfield 2b 25 .269 .305 .395 149 506 69 136 29 4 9 60 25 89 18 5
Wyatt Toregas c 25 .256 .312 .379 106 348 35 89 22 0 7 40 26 71 3 1
Andy Marte 3b 24 .239 .294 .408 140 497 44 119 31 1 17 66 37 110 0 0
Ryan Goleski lf 26 .239 .314 .383 122 439 36 105 22 1 13 63 43 132 4 7
Wes Hodges 3b 23 .243 .305 .372 118 465 42 113 22 1 12 56 37 134 0 0
Mike Rouse* ss 28 .246 .322 .347 109 334 49 82 20 1 4 35 35 74 2 2
Trevor Crowe# cf 24 .242 .317 .339 137 528 74 128 26 2 7 47 56 98 32 12
Luis Rivas 2b 28 .244 .300 .358 105 360 41 88 16 2 7 38 25 59 9 3
Jamey Carroll 2b 34 .246 .333 .309 106 285 49 70 11 2 1 25 34 48 5 3
Brandon Pinckney ss 26 .245 .291 .338 107 379 46 93 21 1 4 36 22 52 3 2
Matthew McBride c 23 .230 .280 .343 109 452 47 104 31 1 6 49 24 61 0 0
Yamid Haad c 30 .228 .269 .349 62 189 19 43 8 0 5 21 10 42 1 0
Stephen Head* 1b 24 .210 .273 .327 134 501 49 105 29 0 10 57 35 92 3 0
Armando Camacaro c 27 .212 .261 .345 52 165 15 35 7 0 5 17 9 37 2 0
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Hafner* Pr
Sizemore* Av
Martinez# Fr Av
Garko Av
Dellucci* Fr Pr Fr
Peralta Fr
Choo* Av Fr Av
Francisco Vg Fr Vg
Blake Av Fr Vg
Shoppach Vg
Aubrey* Av
Nixon* Av
Gutierrez Vg Vg Vg
Michaels Av Av
Lofton* Av Av
Cooper* Av Av
Cabrera# Vg Av
Snyder* Av Pr Av
Barfield Av
Toregas Vg
Marte Vg
Goleski Av Av
Hodges Fr
Rouse* Fr Fr
Crowe# Vg Vg Vg
Oforthreevas Pr Pr
Carroll Vg Av Fr
Pinckney Av Av Fr
McBride Av
Haad Av
Head* Av
Camacaro Vg
Player Spotlight - Franklin Gutierrez
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .302 .371 .497 156 513 95 155 34 3 20 93 54 109 17 7
Mean .268 .332 .422 142 467 72 125 28 1 14 57 43 109 11 7
Pessimistic (15%) .243 .299 .368 115 378 49 92 20 0 9 48 30 95 6 6
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Derek Bell, Junior Felix
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Rafael Betancourt 33 2.86 5 1 58 0 66.0 59 21 6 13 57
Fausto Carmona 24 3.47 19 9 33 33 223.0 222 86 18 56 141
C.C. Sabathia* 27 3.66 16 8 31 31 214.0 223 87 22 37 165
Aaron Fultz* 34 3.95 3 2 59 1 57.0 57 25 5 23 41
Rafael Perez* 26 4.05 4 2 66 0 80.0 80 36 10 30 58
Adam Miller 23 4.25 8 6 23 17 110.0 111 52 12 37 90
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.31 -----------------------------------------------
Tom Mastny 27 4.43 4 4 56 0 69.0 72 34 7 32 55
Jensen Lewis 24 4.44 3 3 70 0 81.0 83 40 11 31 68
Jake Westbrook 30 4.45 11 10 29 29 180.0 198 89 16 57 105
Aaron Laffey* 23 4.55 11 10 32 29 176.0 194 89 16 53 96
Joe Borowski 37 4.57 4 3 64 0 63.0 67 32 7 20 46
Edward Mujica 24 4.57 2 2 46 0 61.0 68 31 8 16 42
Cliff Lee* 29 4.63 11 10 31 29 175.0 187 90 22 56 124
Matt Miller 36 4.66 1 0 30 0 29.0 29 15 4 16 24
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.71 -----------------------------------------------
Masahide Kobayashi 34 4.79 3 4 47 0 47.0 52 25 6 14 30
Jeremy Sowers* 25 4.81 9 10 29 29 174.0 198 93 19 55 83
Juan Lara* 27 4.97 3 4 57 0 67.0 71 37 8 35 49
J.D. Martin 25 4.98 2 2 11 11 47.0 52 26 7 15 31
Scott Lewis* 24 4.98 5 6 26 24 121.0 132 67 18 41 86
Paul Byrd 37 5.00 9 11 28 28 171.0 212 95 24 30 74
Brian Slocum 27 5.01 4 4 18 12 70.0 73 39 9 34 54
Cliff Politte 34 5.06 1 2 32 0 32.0 34 18 5 14 23
Mike Koplove 31 5.06 3 3 56 0 64.0 71 36 8 28 39
Jason Stanford* 31 5.16 3 4 20 13 82.0 91 47 10 34 47
Reid Santos* 25 5.30 3 5 43 7 90.0 97 53 14 42 63
Tony Sipp* 24 5.34 3 4 35 10 86.0 91 51 16 37 66
Sean Smith 24 5.65 7 10 26 24 145.0 166 91 23 63 81
Jake Dittler 25 5.75 5 9 25 17 119.0 147 76 14 55 45
Chuck Lofgren* 22 5.92 8 13 27 27 149.0 166 98 23 90 101
Eric DuBose* 32 6.05 5 10 26 18 113.0 133 76 18 55 67
Nick Pesco 24 6.14 4 7 17 14 88.0 106 60 14 39 44
Scott Elarton 32 6.16 5 9 24 20 114.0 136 78 23 44 50
Jeff Harris 33 6.39 4 7 25 15 100.0 122 71 24 30 53
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Fausto Carmona
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.72 20 6 34 34 232 210 70 14 51 168
Mean 3.47 19 9 33 33 223 222 86 18 56 141
Pessimistic (15%) 4.20 14 10 28 28 180 194 84 18 55 103
Top Near-Age Comps: Storm Davis, Burt Hooton
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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WTF happened to Josh Barfield? He was supposed to be good.
Byrd on Human GAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Hormone. Perez not looking so hot either. And based on this, they might as well trade Gutierrez as has been discussed some.
OTOH, terrific projection for Miller.
How's Peralta's defense, really? He looks godawful to me, and his reputation is pretty bad so far as I know, but Strat-O-Matic gave him a "3" (average.)
822 Sinkers
303 Balls (36.9%)
143 strikes called (17.4%)
51 strikes swinging (6.2%)
147 fouls/foul tips (17.9%)
127 in play for outs (15.5%)
51 Hits (6.2%)
I have no idea how that matches up with other sinkerballers though
Balls - 37.6%
Strikes Called - 20.7%
Strikes Swung - 5.9%
Fouls - 14.3%
In Play Outs - 14.1%
Hits - 7.3%
I have no idea if that is indicative of anything.
He had some elbow problems that shut him down last year & ended up getting TJ surgery in September, though he's supposed to be back for spring training.
Also ZIPS seems to have gone on a bender just before cranking these out because it's clearly blacked out Cliff Lee's 2007. :-)
You don't have them all memorized? Clearly you watch too many actual baseball games.
Assuming Gutierrez hits his ZIPS projection, does his sublime defense make up for his subpar offense?
ZiPS didn't like Marte last year either; had him at 234/318/420 entering 2007
Generalissimo Ben Francisco, as Sickels calls him, is probably about a league avg CF defensively. One of his best attributes is that for a RH hitter he crushes righties. Alot of Cleveland fans like myself thought that he should have replaced Trot right about midseason. He's been a little old for his levels, but like Big League Choo he hasn't gotten much of a chance to shine.
On another note, the only thing frustrating about Shapiro right now is that with our depth he hasn't been able to swing a trade for an impact bat in LF or 3B. I like pitching depth as much as the next guy, but we might need another hitter more.
I take it you're not optimistic of a full recovery?
Sizemore's closest comp is Rasmus.
Choo's closest comp is Buck
Gutierrez's closest comp is Huffman.
vr, Xei
Author of Dodger Sims blog.
There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection. I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats, and the under on Aaron Fultz's starts.
As for Peralta, I assume what's eventually going to happen is that he moves to third, Droobs moves from second to short, and someone else (Josh Barfield?) plays second base. The question is whether Peralta moves to third before or after Barfield runs out of options.
Aubrey will always be in my bad books for not turning out to be a decent major league hitter, so that I could shove the Maholm pick up Littlefield's a-double-s for the rest of eternity. There was no reason to take Maholm over Aubrey or Ian Stewart (or Milledge or Aaron Hill) at the time.
Why?
I don't believe ZIPS is in the business of projecting playing time. Look more closely at the rate stats.
vr, Xei
He's either hurt, not that great, or both.
Lee went through a "dead arm" period shortly after the All-Star break in '04, and had an 8.22 ERA in his last 14 starts that year with 17 home runs allowed in 65.2 IP. The next season, his K/9 fell by about 1.7. In '06, it fell even more and his HR/9 skyrocketed. In '07, his K/9 and HR/9 stayed about the same and his walk rate increased.
Also in '07, he got into a fight with Victor Martinez, which is not something you do if you want to stay popular in the Tribe clubhouse.
I think the guy's damaged goods, be it physically, emotionally, or mentally. He's caught in a vortex of suck, and frankly I think you can stick a fork in him as far as being a good major league starting pitcher. And I think the Indians need to trade him now while he still has value.
Seeing all these makes me even more glad the Pirates didn't take that Bay proposal that was floating around at the winter meetings.
And in sporting goods. And Hawaiian oligarchies.
I think you published a conversion factor to estimate the difference in pitcher's ERA wjen moving from the rotation to the bullpen and vice versa. I believe that ZIPS uses it for it's projections when a pitcher is expected to change roles. Meyers etc.
If you have that information could you please provide it again...Thanks
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