Wouldn't Zach Miner be a potential fill-in starter? And Ryan Raburn should hopefully get a decent amount of at bats with his versatility. If only he could bat left-handed, they wouldn't have "needed" Jones.

Oddly enough, Raburn had a pretty extreme platoon split last year. Only it was lefties he couldn't hit and righties he crushed.

Probably won't hold up over time, but I found that interesting.

That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more. Poor, poor Tigers.

That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more. Poor, poor Tigers.

5 guys in the rotation above average is alot of question marks? I think their pitching looks pretty good.

Boy, that seems pretty pessimistic on CGrand.

I think most projection systems will be skeptical of Cowboy Curtis' ability to hit as many triples as he did last year.

Vada Pinson? Lloyd Moseby? Even the projection systems are using the complexion-based comparison technique!

5 guys in the rotation above average is a lot of question marks?

No, 5 guys in the rotation above average is a pipe dream, especially if Cabrera is playing third base. Detroit's projected '08 rotation had a combined ERA of 4.62 in '07.

And they had a combined ERA of 3.86 in '06.

If Verlander throws 180 IP, I'd bet heavily on the over for that K total.

Granderson's projection seems pretty accurate to me. I think his power was for real, but his BABIP forecasts a drop in average, thus in OBP.

Detroit's projected '08 rotation had a combined ERA of 4.62 in '07.

Two of them, maybe three, had years derailed by injuries. Seriously, how many other rotations project with 5 above average starters? How many rotations don't worry about people getting hurt? Zero. I share Dan's concerns about depth, but the frontline talent projects as well as anyone in baseball. Those same five starters put up great 06 numbers too... pitching fluctuates from year to year, but having five starters with the proven ability to throw lots of high quality innings, in a pitcher's park, with an above average defence behind them, backed by what looks to be a scary offence? That's a quandary almost any team would love to be in.

That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more. Poor, poor Tigers.

Porcello is the definition of elite prospect. And as long as teams go along with Bud's idiotic slotting, DD will restock it with more high quality talent soon. Seriously, isn't this why you get high prospects? Either to get good cheap performance or acquire elite players? Should they have held onto them until they molder? We're talking about dealing for a 24 year-old on a HOF trajectory, and a 35 yr old with significant success, not Raul Mondesi or Andy Ashby.

The 06 Marlins had a pretty good pitching staff with Cabrera at 3B, didn't they? I'd rather have Inge there and Miggy in LF, but there is a good argument about accommodating your HOF bat, especially when you want to sign him long-term. He won't be Inge there, but I doubt his D is going to derail the whole season.

I have noticed a lot more Tigers sniping since the Miguel trade... not surprising, but it is kinda fun.

(BTW, I would project DET as the 2nd best team in the AL... and I have a feeling there will be a couple more parts to come).

Not to quibble with this strong roster, but when the combined era variance for your projected starting rotation over the last two years is 0.78 (and not in the good direction, either) then that suggests some questions to me, both in terms of injury risk that Dan cited and in the likely quality of innings pitched. Seriously, Willis, Rogers, Bonderman and Robertson scare no one. And as for Porcello, he ain't going to be ready next season. Still a good deal for Dombrowski, of course.

As a bottom 2-5, how many teams would you put ahead of them in the AL? I count Angels and Red Sox.

And is 0.78 a large swing? What is the year to year SP average?

That's a positive projection for Inge. I figured he would be one of the "craters in his 30s" crowd.

Seriously, Willis, Rogers, Bonderman and Robertson scare no one.

Rogers, Bonderman, and Robertson were 3/4ths of the postseason rotation that carried the Tigers to the World Series. Scary? Maybe not. Sufficient? Definately.

If these projections are correct there really seems to be no reason for Jones. Even with the platoon splits you'd probably be fine with some combination of Raburn and Thames against RH pitching next year. But then again the Raburn and Thames projections seem high.

Free Marcus Thames.

Scary? Maybe not. Sufficient? Definately.

Or defiantly sufficient?

ZiPS differs pretty heavily from PECOTA on Cabrera.

.304/.381/.523 for PECOTA, as opposed to .318/.407/.559 here.

PECOTA knocked down Cabrera's projection by 60-65 OPS points because of the league switch. Silver tends to think the difference between the leagues is about 10 wins which I find quite large but that might be the reason for the discrepancy. Either way, I hope how one player does won't be used as evidence either way.

I use league differences too, but I'm conservative about applying them and regress them moderately towards even.

Guillen suddenly goes from very good to league average. Tis a shame.

Sure, triples are fluky. Still that projection suggests CGrand's XBH drop by 23%. Some of those triples will become outs this year. And some will become HRs and doubles. Either way, I can't see his power dropping by that much.

Rogers, Bonderman, and Robertson were 3/4ths of the postseason rotation that carried the Tigers to the World Series.

By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?

304/.381/.523 for PECOTA, as opposed to .318/.407/.559 here.

The difference in AVG shows up in SLG and in OBP so the majority of the difference in those lines is PECOTA doesn't like him hitting as high. If you adjust the PECOTA line to a .318 AVG those are pretty even projections.

By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?

No, he was 1/9th of that offense, so you're distorting the argument. It's not even close to the same thing as saying that Robertson, Rogers, and Bonderman aren't good enough to be the 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 starters on a team when those exact guys, compromising 75% of the postseason rotation and 60% of the regular season rotation, got the job done in 2006.

I'm not saying the Tigers will have the best rotation in baseball, I'm just saying they have a rotation that's more than good enough to compete. You don't have to scare people to win, you just need togive your team a chance to win.

I'm not saying the Tigers will have the best rotation in baseball, I'm just saying they have a rotation that's more than good enough to compete. You don't have to scare people to win, you just need togive your team a chance to win.

i really don't think anyone is disagreeing with you or walewander here. i think the question that's being asked (and i hope i don't misrepresent anyone) is whether you'd prefer have those five guys and basically no backup options are better than having one, two, or three guys at or near that quality and a lot of options in the minors or elsewhere within the organization, as other teams do. i think the crux of the argument against the tigers' rotation is that those guys, although all solid to very good, aren't great enough that it's worth taking over the depth other pitching staffs offer.

What kind of backup options do you want? They still have the guy who was their fifth starter in 2006 (Miner) and in 2007 (Durbin).

Sure, they've traded away Miller and Jurrjens (and Ledezma), but that's trading from depth. They still have Bazardo and Jordan Tata. They've just developed a lot of young starting pitchers all at once.

Once Cabrera was acquired, some were suggesting that Detroit had become a 1000-run team. Given all the regressions you are proposing, all of which make sense, I just don't see it. Still a very strong team, to be sure, but one that may not meet its now wild expectations.

i think the crux of the argument against the tigers' rotation is that those guys, although all solid to very good, aren't great enough that it's worth taking over the depth other pitching staffs offer.

Angels, yes. Probably Toronto. (But the Tigers' offense looks a lot better than Anaheim's or Toronto's.) Boston, too.

But New York?

What kind of backup options do you want? They still have the guy who was their fifth starter in 2006 (Miner) and in 2007 (Durbin).

This was more or less what I was getting at. The last two seasons the Tigers really haven't had a fifth starter and now that they've added Willis, they do. Their old fifth starters move to the pen or AAA and serve as emergency starters.

I just don't see how they have *less* depth than they have had the last two years pitching-wise. I can see the argument that they aren't particularly deep, but not the argument that they're any less so than in '06 or '07.

The Tigers organization isn't deep in prospects, but the last few years they've shown they're deep in "AAAA" type replacements, which as often as not perform as well as legitimate prospects who are still a few years away from being ready for the big leagues.

On Granderson, the primary question is his K-rate. Through 06, he K'd at 1 per 3.5 AB; in 07, he K'd 1 per 4.3 which is a pretty big deal. ZIPS has (knowingly?) projected him to a K-rate of about 1 per 4 which seems reasonable. ZIPS has also regressed his BA on-contact which is also reasonable (it was 393 last year, ZIPS has it at 371 which is below his career and possibly "over-regressed" a smidgen).

But I suppose it is a little odd that, based on the same number of AB, ZIPS has docked Granderson 15 hits with 19 of those 15 hits being xbh. :-)

Now here's a factoid -- Granderson has more career triples than steals. That's got to be extremely rare (for anybody who hits a reasonable number of triples at least).

Yes, I have no objection to ZiPS projection on the BABIP, BA, K rate, or OBP. It's the XBH and subsequent SLG that seems pessimistic to me.

Detroit Tigers: 2008 and 2009 World Series Champions.

I'm smellin' dynasty, baby.

Dan, remind how ZiPS handles platoon splits. In Granderson's case, he's either going to learn to hit lefties, or he's going to continue to have his playing time (and rate stats) biased towards his splits against RHP, because he's platooned or because he bats first versus RHP and much later versus LHP. Either way, unless Dan's ZiPS projection takes that into account, it might be misleading.

Detroit Tigers: 2008 and 2009 World Series Champions.

I'm smellin' dynasty, baby.

Wait until you get a taste of what Willis and Bonderman will be serving up this year. Gotta hope that offense can carry the load.

Dan, remind how ZiPS handles platoon splits. In Granderson's case, he's either going to learn to hit lefties, or he's going to continue to have his playing time (and rate stats) biased towards his splits against RHP, because he's platooned or because he bats first versus RHP and much later versus LHP. Either way, unless Dan's ZiPS projection takes that into account, it might be misleading.

It doesn't, actually. I'm not sure if any really do that - it's kinda frustrating because generic platoon splits predict future platoon splits far better than actual platoon splits do. So I just assume past usage and work from there.

5 guys in the rotation above average is alot of question marks? I think their pitching looks pretty good.

The rotation does, but I think their bullpen has question marks, especially with Zumaya out.

9.69 ERA for Sleeth? I had no idea ZIPs went that high.

Walewander, I've noticed a lot of sniping since the Cabrera trade too and I like it! In 2006, they were a nice story. In 2008, they are a high payroll team that other fans will root against. It's going to be a fun season.

The projections seem pretty reasonable to me. I would never bet against Granderson being for real though. He has exceeded his expectations all the way up the ladder. I do expect drop offs for Ordonez and Polanco so that is no surprise. If the Tigers can match the ERAs and innings pitched totals of the projections, they should be in good shape.

Sleeth is the current record-holder for ZiPS, the record previously being 9.42 by Chad Bentz. That's kind of skewed, however, as I don't do every player and no doubt that there are guys in low-A and lower that would be killed just as badly.

The rotation does, but I think their bullpen has question marks, especially with Zumaya out.

However, now that Rock Band's out, he can sing & not risk exacerbating his injury while on rehab. Just keep him away from the drums.

By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?

Of course he was. I don't see what you're getting at. Eckstein has been a damn good player.

AS for championship team SS in recent memory, he's better than Lugo, Uribe, Cabrera (at least better in 2002/2005 than Cabrera was in 2004), Sea Bass, and Womack.

Last championship shortstop better than the Eck was Derek Jeter.

How many rotations don't worry about people getting hurt? Zero.

Unfortunately, Bonderman and Willis are already hurt, and the Tigers are apparently going to throw them out there anyways. This could have a huge negative impact on both of their careers.

Sleeth is the current record-holder for ZiPS, the record previously being 9.42 by Chad Bentz. That's kind of skewed, however, as I don't do every player and no doubt that there are guys in low-A and lower that would be killed just as badly.

Did you do a ZiPs for Jason Neighborgall this year? I want to see quadruple-digit walks.

5 guys in the rotation above average is alot of question marks? I think their pitching looks pretty good.

Let's not get too carried away with this rotation just yet.

Three year trends for Willis.

Hits allowed......213, 234, 241

Home runs allowed.....11, 21, 29

BB allowed......55, 83, 87

K's......170, 160, 146

The cause of all this. He was overworked at too young an age.

197 IP at age 22, 236 IP at age 23, 224 IP at age 24.....this is sick.
Even worse than the abuse Mulder, Hudson, and Zito endured.


And then there is the Bonderman situation

Bonderman threw 234 innings (including post-season) in 2006 at age 23.
This is far too many for somebody at that age, especially for a guy
who's previous high was 189 IP.

The negative impact of this was very apparent in 07. His K-rate
dropped by 12%, and his HR-rate increased by 57%. His ERA trend from
May to Sept in 07 is as follows - 2.66, 4.99, 5.31, 6.05, 12.15. Not
too promising.

And Rogers is 43. Nuff said.

The Tigers have a great offense, but the rotation could be very
disappointing.

Ken

Willis declined badly last year, but the whole "three year trend" thing, to me, is cherry picking.

Of course Willis declined in '06, who *wouldn't* decline fron that '05? His '06 was perfectly fine and better than his '04, I feel like you shouldn't penalize a guy for having a great year.

I'm not saying he'll be above average net year, I'm just saying the notion that "well he's declined two years straight" is a litle unfair.

Poor Kody Kirkland. A few years ago, it looked like he might be something, but now he'll be lucky to end up with Craig Brazell's career.

Willis declined badly last year, but the whole "three year trend" thing, to me, is cherry picking.

Of course Willis declined in '06, who *wouldn't* decline fron that '05? His '06 was perfectly fine and better than his '04, I feel like you shouldn't penalize a guy for having a great year.

I'm not saying he'll be above average net year, I'm just saying the notion that "well he's declined two years straight" is a litle unfair.


Of course it's cherry picking. When you want to make a point you tend to use evidence that illustrates it. However any evidence to suggest that Willis is fine, and will have a successful 08 season is skimpy at best. Don't forget that he is moving to a much tougher league. Take a look at Beckett's, Pavano's, Clement's, Vazquez's, Batista's, Horacio RAmirez's, Chan Ho Park's first AL seasons. Not pretty.

Based on his performance as a pro there was really no reason, other then workload abuse, to think that he couldn't maintain the 05 level. Until he was over-worked he was consistently superb at all levels and in every season. Just to refresh your memory his minor league ERA(s) were 2.98, 1.83, 1.80, and 1.49. And this was at 19-21 years of age. He had/has the stuff to be a Jake Peavy. To say that he "had to" decline after his 05 season, is actually pretty ridiculous. The best pitchers do maintain that level, and Willis was one great pitcher at that point. There was no real reason to expect any kind of a decline. Were you predicting one? If so, why? At least part of the reason he declined in 06 was workload related. And his 07 season was an absolute disaster, where his skill level would not even have been good for AAA.

If you don't think that he'll be above average next season, you are basically agreeing with me, while saying that you disagree. You say my method is "unfair", and yet you draw the same conclusion. Interesting.

I love this new hatred for the Tigers... It's like 1908 all over again!

Of course it's cherry picking. When you want to make a point you tend to use evidence that illustrates it.

But when you want to make a good point, you present all the evidence, and then you explain what it means.

Willis should be in the NL. He's a tremendous hitter for a pitcher and that makes him more of an asset to a team. A .639 OPS in a tough park is very impressive.

If Willis was on the Blue Jays could they bat him and DH for John McDonald? Or is there some rule against that?

But when you want to make a good point, you present all the evidence, and then you explain what it means.

OK - here is all the evidence that indicates that Willis in not "damaged goods" and that he will pitch well in 08.

- he managed to finish the season on the active roster (probably a strategic decision by the Marlins to make him more tradeable)

- he is only 25

- he has good intangibles

- the Marlins screwed around with his mechanics. the Tigers will let him pitch the way he wants.

- he will be more motivated in a pennant race

- Sheffield & Magglio will get him on the "cream" to build up his strength

- AL hitters will not be comfortable facing his unorthodox delivery

- Pudge (who also knows a bit about PED) knows how to handle pitchers better than Olivio

- Granderson will be in centre field

- Leyland is better at handling pitchers than his Florida counterparts

- less hot weather to deal with in Detroit


There you have it. The opposing viewpoint. Willis will likely get his ERA back to 3.50.

Willis will likely get his ERA back to 3.50.

Whew. I'm glad that is decided; I was getting worried there for a while.

Go Tigers!

Dan, I am interested in the Rule 5s. I would love to see some of the picks compared to available players on the farms. Any chance you could look at those?

By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?


Of course he was. I don't see what you're getting at. Eckstein has been a damn good player.

Point I was making is that when a team wins it tells us very little about any given player on that team, beyong the fact that they're at least serviceable, like Eckstein.

That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more.

It seems lately the Tigers have had a way of producing adequate fill-in pitching out of nowhere. I am more worried about their not coming up with any dominant relief pitching.

It doesn't, actually. I'm not sure if any really do that - it's kinda frustrating because generic platoon splits predict future platoon splits far better than actual platoon splits do. So I just assume past usage and work from there.


While I buy that for the majority of players generic platoon splits predict best, I would bet that for a subset of left-handed hitters actual platoon splits, appropriately regressed to the mean, would predict better. It'd be interesting to see some research on that.

I should note I also have a policy about doubling the word for minimal gain!

I can understand trying to focus on the best bang for the buck, but maybe this could put you over the top in next year's projection assessments!

Detroit Tigers: 2008 and 2009 World Series Champions.

I'm smellin' dynasty, baby.

The fifth best team in the AL? Good luck with that.

i just wanted to point out that Miguel Cabrera was rated fair by Syzm at 3b.

i'd posit the system for that might need a touch of retuning.

unless Fr means Freaking Terrible.

i just wanted to point out that Miguel Cabrera was rated fair by Syzm at 3b.

i'd posit the system for that might need a touch of retuning.

My cutoff for guys who I have solid stats for is -12 runs.

I have Cabrera projected at -11. Chone has him at -10. The last 2 years, I have him at -11. The last 2 years, Pinto had him at a total of 24 plays below average, which is less than 24 runs.

He's on the cusp, but he's clearly not quite at PR yet.

"There you have it. The opposing viewpoint."

You forgot the bit about the Marlins having a horrible, horrible infield defense.

The last 2 years, I have him at -11.

That's per, not total.