BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections, Final Spreadsheet

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1. DCA Posted: March 31, 2008 at 09:31 PM (#2725643)

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention,

The Reds are the runner-up for making it so I have to project a reliever who hasn’t been active since 2004.

but who is this?

2. Crispix Attacks Posted: March 31, 2008 at 09:42 PM (#2725685)

Mike Lincoln.

They also have Kent Mercker, who retired after 2006 and has now unretired.

3. Cacciaguida Posted: April 01, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2726136)

Dan,

Thanks very much for your hard work. I wonder, is there a projection for Brett Myers as a starter?

4. zack Posted: April 01, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#2726226)

Brady Clark somehow made the Mets if you are going for completeness.

5. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 01, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2726233)

Thanks, Dan. Much appreciated as always.

6. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 01, 2008 at 02:19 PM (#2726237)

Crap on a stick! I think I posted the old one still.

7. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 01, 2008 at 02:26 PM (#2726246)

OK, renamed the file and changed the link. I think the server was caching the old file or something.

8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 01, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#2726267)

Much thanks for all the ZiPS work!

9. Red Robot Posted: April 01, 2008 at 07:18 PM (#2726626)

The White Sox are officially my least favorite team for 2008 for forcing me to slap some crap together to try and project Alexei Ramirez.

Just out of curiosity, what data did you use to project Alexei? Is his Cuban data available?

Thanks again for all your hard work, Dan!

10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 01, 2008 at 07:26 PM (#2726633)

So who won the 2008 World Series?

11. ZachR Posted: April 01, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2726653)

After checking out the ZiPS projections, I have a major question. What assumptions regarding playing time are made?

For example, Yankees players are projected to hit 333 home runs in 11,229 at bats. Obviously, this would make no sense. In reality, they hit 201 homers in 5,717 at bats in 2007. This question most likely arises from my ignorance of the ZiPS projections. Perhaps there is a page that describes the assumptions and how to interpret the projections.

12. Sparkles Peterson Posted: April 01, 2008 at 07:51 PM (#2726666)

It's not exactly a big deal, but you've got the wrong McClellan on the Cardinals. Kyle McClellan the young starter > reliever > supposed eventual starter made the roster. Zach McClellan is still with the Rockies.

13. John Peterson Posted: April 02, 2008 at 05:21 PM (#2727908)

You don't have Nelson Figueroa. Do it again.

14. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 02, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#2727944)

ZiPS FAQ.

I really need to get in the habit of linking this. I always forget that even though this is the 6th year for ZiPS that this is still going to be the 1st year for a lot of people.

It's not exactly a big deal, but you've got the wrong McClellan on the Cardinals. Kyle McClellan the young starter > reliever > supposed eventual starter made the roster. Zach McClellan is still with the Rockies.

Oops. The projection should be right though, these mistakes are usually just me sticking players on the wrong DMB team when doing housekeeping.

<I>You don't have Nelson Figueroa. Do it again./I>

Bugger, I was hoping I had dodged a bullet there. Is he definitely going to take Pedro's roster spot? That'll force me to do his projection, to my chagrin.

15. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 02, 2008 at 05:49 PM (#2727952)

Just out of curiosity, what data did you use to project Alexei? Is his Cuban data available?

Der Komminskar linked Ramirez's Cuban stats a while back. The translations were made using half-guesses that I pulled out of my ass, just to make it clear how much faith I have in projecting a Cuba-only player.

16. flournoy Posted: April 02, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2727958)

Nelson Figueroa: 1-7, 16 GS, 57.3 IP, 6.74 ERA, 23 K, 26 BB, 14 HR
Most comparable player: Lima Time

Saved you some work, Dan.

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 02, 2008 at 06:03 PM (#2727973)

Crap, I just realized I didn't do Yabu either. Stupid Giants. It always annoys me that I project enough players every year to field 90 25-man rosters and I still end up having to do a handful of guys the first week of the season.

18. tyler Posted: April 02, 2008 at 06:11 PM (#2728000)

Has anyone plugged these in to get team RS for the season? I seem to remember some DMB runs from a few weeks ago...

19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 02, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2728051)

Crap, I just realized I didn't do Yabu either. Stupid Giants. It always annoys me that I project enough players every year to field 90 25-man rosters and I still end up having to do a handful of guys the first week of the season.

We can't expect you to predict the irrationality of some GMs out there. I mean, Keiichi Yabu? Mike Lincoln? Kent Mercker? What, was Bob Wells not available?

20. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: April 03, 2008 at 07:15 AM (#2728882)

Escobar, Alcides: .251/.275/.296

That is some hot #### right there.

Also, Dave Krynzel isn't on the Brewers anymore, thankfully; they have enough crappy center fielders as is it is without you giving them their old ones back.

21. mannypapi Posted: April 03, 2008 at 05:50 PM (#2729394)

Is there a new Diamond Mind season file for this final version (after 1.1)? If not, is there an easy way to import these into DMB?

22. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 03, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2729463)

I'm working on an early season build. You should ask SG, he keeps the disk up to date for the sims.

23. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: April 06, 2008 at 09:56 PM (#2732974)

I have him in my roto league, but I'll take the under on the .264 BA for Jack Cust.

24. Argu!!!! SATAN!!!! (Sessile Fielder) Posted: July 08, 2008 at 02:29 AM (#2848274)

ZiPS for Sabathia in Milwaukee?

25. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:42 PM (#3006982)

The translations were made using half-guesses that I pulled out of my ass, just to make it clear how much faith I have in projecting a Cuba-only player.

JFTR: projection--42; actual--66. Very good guess IMO.

26. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 14, 2009 at 01:23 PM (#3102914)

Hey Dan, are you still planning to do a Yankees ZIPs write up even though you already released the final spreadsheet?

27. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: March 20, 2009 at 04:25 PM (#3109408)

I'm doing roto for the first time in years. Is there gonna be one of these for '09 or should I use what you did for DMB, Dan?

28. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: March 23, 2009 at 05:11 PM (#3111699)

Dan around?

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