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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, March 31, 2008

2008 ZiPS Projections, Final Spreadsheet

The title is pretty explanatory. 

2008 ZiPS Projections for Microsoft Excel

The White Sox are officially my least favorite team for 2008 for forcing me to slap some crap together to try and project Alexei Ramirez.  The Reds are the runner-up for making it so I have to project a reliever who hasn’t been active since 2004.

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Dan Szymborski Posted: March 31, 2008 at 05:54 PM | 28 comment(s)
  Related News: ZIPS

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   1. DCA  Posted: March 31, 2008 at 05:31 PM (#2725643)
Maybe I just haven't been paying attention,

The Reds are the runner-up for making it so I have to project a reliever who hasn’t been active since 2004.

but who is this?
   2. Crispix Attacks is in the best shape of his life.  Posted: March 31, 2008 at 05:42 PM (#2725685)
Mike Lincoln.

They also have Kent Mercker, who retired after 2006 and has now unretired.
   3. Cacciaguida  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 08:04 AM (#2726136)
Dan,

Thanks very much for your hard work. I wonder, is there a projection for Brett Myers as a starter?
   4. zack  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 10:06 AM (#2726226)
Brady Clark somehow made the Mets if you are going for completeness.
   5. Joe C and the Pop Culture Portmanteau  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 10:11 AM (#2726233)
Thanks, Dan. Much appreciated as always.
   6. Dan Szymborski  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 10:19 AM (#2726237)
Crap on a stick! I think I posted the old one still.
   7. Dan Szymborski  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 10:26 AM (#2726246)
OK, renamed the file and changed the link. I think the server was caching the old file or something.
   8. snapper  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 10:42 AM (#2726267)
Much thanks for all the ZiPS work!
   9. Red Robot  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2726626)
The White Sox are officially my least favorite team for 2008 for forcing me to slap some crap together to try and project Alexei Ramirez.

Just out of curiosity, what data did you use to project Alexei? Is his Cuban data available?

Thanks again for all your hard work, Dan!
   10. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2726633)
So who won the 2008 World Series?
   11. ZachR  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2726653)
After checking out the ZiPS projections, I have a major question. What assumptions regarding playing time are made?

For example, Yankees players are projected to hit 333 home runs in 11,229 at bats. Obviously, this would make no sense. In reality, they hit 201 homers in 5,717 at bats in 2007. This question most likely arises from my ignorance of the ZiPS projections. Perhaps there is a page that describes the assumptions and how to interpret the projections.
   12. Sparkles Peterson  Posted: April 01, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2726666)
It's not exactly a big deal, but you've got the wrong McClellan on the Cardinals. Kyle McClellan the young starter > reliever > supposed eventual starter made the roster. Zach McClellan is still with the Rockies.
   13. John Peterson  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 01:21 PM (#2727908)
You don't have Nelson Figueroa. Do it again.
   14. Dan Szymborski  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#2727944)
ZiPS FAQ.

I really need to get in the habit of linking this. I always forget that even though this is the 6th year for ZiPS that this is still going to be the 1st year for a lot of people.

It's not exactly a big deal, but you've got the wrong McClellan on the Cardinals. Kyle McClellan the young starter > reliever > supposed eventual starter made the roster. Zach McClellan is still with the Rockies.

Oops. The projection should be right though, these mistakes are usually just me sticking players on the wrong DMB team when doing housekeeping.

<I>You don't have Nelson Figueroa. Do it again./I>

Bugger, I was hoping I had dodged a bullet there. Is he definitely going to take Pedro's roster spot? That'll force me to do his projection, to my chagrin.
   15. Dan Szymborski  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2727952)

Just out of curiosity, what data did you use to project Alexei? Is his Cuban data available?


Der Komminskar linked Ramirez's Cuban stats a while back. The translations were made using half-guesses that I pulled out of my ass, just to make it clear how much faith I have in projecting a Cuba-only player.
   16. flournoy  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 01:52 PM (#2727958)
Nelson Figueroa: 1-7, 16 GS, 57.3 IP, 6.74 ERA, 23 K, 26 BB, 14 HR
Most comparable player: Lima Time

Saved you some work, Dan.
   17. Dan Szymborski  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2727973)
Crap, I just realized I didn't do Yabu either. Stupid Giants. It always annoys me that I project enough players every year to field 90 25-man rosters and I still end up having to do a handful of guys the first week of the season.
   18. tyler  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2728000)
Has anyone plugged these in to get team RS for the season? I seem to remember some DMB runs from a few weeks ago...
   19. Dayton Moore is a Big Fat Idiot (AG#1F)  Posted: April 02, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2728051)
Crap, I just realized I didn't do Yabu either. Stupid Giants. It always annoys me that I project enough players every year to field 90 25-man rosters and I still end up having to do a handful of guys the first week of the season.

We can't expect you to predict the irrationality of some GMs out there. I mean, Keiichi Yabu? Mike Lincoln? Kent Mercker? What, was Bob Wells not available?
   20. battlekow  Posted: April 03, 2008 at 03:15 AM (#2728882)
Escobar, Alcides: .251/.275/.296

That is some hot #### right there.

Also, Dave Krynzel isn't on the Brewers anymore, thankfully; they have enough crappy center fielders as is it is without you giving them their old ones back.
   21. mannypapi  Posted: April 03, 2008 at 01:50 PM (#2729394)
Is there a new Diamond Mind season file for this final version (after 1.1)? If not, is there an easy way to import these into DMB?
   22. Dan Szymborski  Posted: April 03, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#2729463)
I'm working on an early season build. You should ask SG, he keeps the disk up to date for the sims.
   23. Tom D  Posted: April 06, 2008 at 05:56 PM (#2732974)
I have him in my roto league, but I'll take the under on the .264 BA for Jack Cust.
   24. battlekow  Posted: July 07, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2848274)
ZiPS for Sabathia in Milwaukee?
   25. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory)  Posted: November 11, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#3006982)
The translations were made using half-guesses that I pulled out of my ass, just to make it clear how much faith I have in projecting a Cuba-only player.

JFTR: projection--42; actual--66. Very good guess IMO.
   26. Cowboy Popup  Posted: March 14, 2009 at 09:23 AM (#3102914)
Hey Dan, are you still planning to do a Yankees ZIPs write up even though you already released the final spreadsheet?
   27. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: March 20, 2009 at 12:25 PM (#3109408)
I'm doing roto for the first time in years. Is there gonna be one of these for '09 or should I use what you did for DMB, Dan?
   28. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: March 23, 2009 at 01:11 PM (#3111699)
Dan around?
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