BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZIPS Projections

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages

1. NJ is feeling better Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:27 AM (#2627582)

Is that the smallest difference between an optimistic and a mean projection?

EDIT: Referring to Miguel Cabrera, of course.

2. Russ Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:29 AM (#2627586)

Is that the smallest difference between an optimistic and a mean projection?

Power of shrinkage. No one is supposed to be that good... the prediction just won't let itself get out that far, I would guess.

3. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:38 AM (#2627590)

Isn't that a bit low for Hermida? Its going to be his third year in the big leagues.
When he broke in, the big debate was who was going to have more value, Hermida or Frenchy...Seems like that fight was a TKO

4. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:41 AM (#2627591)

That team is in dire need of a centerfielder.

I am astonished that Dontrelle would project so poorly. I know he had an ugly 2007 but... man.

5. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:42 AM (#2627593)

Who is John Gall?

I don't get it.

Why are Cabrera's comps so unimpressive? I'm just a little surprised to see those names there and not, you know, Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or someone like that.

6. dr. bleachers Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:47 AM (#2627596)

I am astonished that Dontrelle would project so poorly. I know he had an ugly 2007 but... man.

It looks remarkably similar to his 4.36 FIP 2006 campaign.

7. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2627602)

It looks remarkably similar to his 4.36 FIP 2006 campaign.

His home runs allowed spiked but I see what you mean.

8. NJ is feeling better Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2627603)

When he broke in, the big debate was who was going to have more value, Hermida or Frenchy...Seems like that fight was a TKO

I can't tell if this is a joke or not.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 12:54 AM (#2627604)

Why are Cabrera's comps so unimpressive? I'm just a little surprised to see those names there and not, you know, Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or someone like that.

Ron Santo's a should-be easy HOFer and Jim Ray Hart was an awesome player. Cabrera's fairly unique, too - not a lot of 3B before ZiPS insists on finding 1B and corner outfielders. Aaron's on that list, as are Bagwell, Vlad, and Brett, among others.

10. dr. bleachers Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:01 AM (#2627611)

His home runs allowed spiked but I see what you mean.

I mean the projection looks similar to his 2006 line (identical WHIP, 21 HR, 160/83 K/BB). Just an ER result more in line with his DIPS numbers.

11. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:04 AM (#2627613)

As most people know, I'm not a big Hermida booster. That said, I expect he'll outperform that projection, assuming that he continues to be as aggressive at the plate as he was in the second half last year. But he does have holes in his swing, and he can
be pitched to.

-- MWE

12. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:06 AM (#2627614)

Thanks Dan, I didn't mean to slight Santo or Hart, I was just expecting the biggest of the big names for Cabrera. Also, I knew nothing about Jim Ray Hart until this, what a flame out. Is there a story (I'm guessing injury) behind that?

13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2627620)

Those are some pretty good numbers from relievers picked up off the trash heap - Justin Miller, Lee Gardner, Brandon Villafuerte.

14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:13 AM (#2627625)

All three guys you mentioned have killed in the minors for years... Miller has the best stuff of the bunch.

15. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:13 AM (#2627626)

Also, I knew nothing about Jim Ray Hart until this, what a flame out. Is there a story (I'm guessing injury) behind that?

Messed up his shoulder, I think.

16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:17 AM (#2627628)

Borchard actually looks marginally useful. I must admit, I did not expect that.

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2627639)

As I mention, some of that Willis projection is defense - I have him projected for a lower ERA for every NL team but Cincinnati and Colorado.

18. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:32 AM (#2627643)

Tyler's been released, I think. As well he should have been.

-- MWE

19. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:35 AM (#2627644)

"Henricus"?

(checks website)

Why didn't anyone tell me this "Rick van den Hurk" was a living, breathing guy from the Netherlands?! MLB really has to publicize things like that better. I had no idea any Dutch person who wasn't actually from a Caribbean island was a good enough prospect to be in an MLB rotation in the near future, let alone was in one for much of the last season.

Why, he might already be better than Robert Eenhorn AND Rikkert Faneyte!

20. Kirby Kyle Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:37 AM (#2627646)

Who is John Gall?

I don't get it.

It won't help deflect accusations that Dan is a crypto-Randian.

21. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:47 AM (#2627652)

Why didn't anyone tell me this "Rick van den Hurk" was a living, breathing guy from the Netherlands?!

You didn't ask. (ba da boom)

Vanden Hurk (that's how he was listed in the game programs) is a 6'5" righty who has spent much of his minor league career hurt (he had TJ surgery in 2005). He pitched very well for the Mudcats, which is where he was supposed to be all year and probably would have been if Ricky Nolasco hadn't gotten hurt. He cameoed with the big club before coming down to Five County, and impressed Fredi Gonzalez enough so that when Florida needed a starter in June he came back up. He's going to be a good major league pitcher if he stays healthy.

-- MWE

22. Dizzypaco Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:02 AM (#2627658)

If Willis ended up on a good team with a good defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have some kind of break out year. I got the sense that the defense killed him last year. I now see that Dan addressed this up above.

23. Marcel Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:17 AM (#2627666)

That team is in dire need of a centerfielder.

They have one. The problem is that he's playing currently shortshop.

24. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:20 AM (#2627669)

That team is in dire need of a centerfielder.

They've needed one for three years, and they refuse to address the problem.

-- MWE

25. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:36 AM (#2627676)

Looking back on the preseason predictions, it did seem like the media thought the plan to have Alejandro de Aza play CF full-time was the most dubious lineup decision in living memory. The last thing I remember being so universally and accurately viewed as a failure before it even started was the Rockies' signing of Denny Neagle.

26. AROM Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2627691)

The last thing I remember being so universally and accurately viewed as a failure before it even started was the Rockies' signing of Denny Neagle.

Signing Shea Hillenbrand as your DH was a failure from the start.

I'm surprised in the small difference between Miggy's average and optimistic line, though I admit I don't have the first clue how they are figured. My gut feeling is that an optimistic season from Miggy includes 40 homers, and that he must have a 90% chance of hitting 40+ one of these years.

27. shoewizard Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2627693)

Willis had a FIP of 4.30 in 2006, and an xFIP of 4.69

The defense behind him was not all that much better than in 2007.
2006 DER .692, 2007 .682

I'm not saying the lousy defense didn't hurt him....of course he did.

But the guy had a 5.10 FIP and 4.76 xFIP last year. Certainly he has to take SOME responsibility for that, no?

28. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2627700)

I'm really surprised Dick Allen isn't on Cabrera's comps list.

29. Darren

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:11 AM (#2627702)

Hermida looks like a monster if he's finally healthy. I see him shattering that projection.

30. AROM Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:12 AM (#2627704)

I was thinking of him too. He's a good comp for Miggy on defense too, unlike Santo.

31. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 29, 2007 at 08:48 AM (#2627842)

Van Den Hurk has a really good curveball.

I've always kept on a eye on Gaby Hernandez because he's the prospect the Mets gave up for Lo Duca. I like to compare him to Kevin Mulvey because the Mets could have signed Ramon Hernandez and kept Gaby but instead chose to trade for Lo Duca and keep the draft pick they used on Mulvey. It's interesting to see that Zips likes Mulvey a lot more than Herrnandez. Mulvey was better than Gaby last year (similar k/9, slightly better k/bb, much better hr/9) but Gaby's a year younger.

It's a travesty for Marlin pitchers that they have to pitch in front of that joke of a defense.

32. Menchwarmer Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:38 PM (#2627885)

As I mention, some of that Willis projection is defense - I have him projected for a lower ERA for every NL team but Cincinnati and Colorado.

Wait, I thought Colorado had a great defense... I mean I'm sure the playoff commentators were exaggerating it a bit, but were they really that far off?

33. AROM Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:00 PM (#2627895)

Rockies have a good defense, but their pitchers still have to pitch half their games in Coors.

34. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:50 PM (#2627998)

I don't get it.

Count yourself fortunate. It's from the worst book I will ever read.

35. CC is on irrevocable waivers Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:17 PM (#2628043)

Question for Dan:

Is the "LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER/RELIEVER" line adjusted for defense as well as park? Should it be?

To the latter question, I would think yes. Why define someone who would have an above-average ERA in a neutral park with average defense support as "below average" just because they happen to play for the Marlins?

36. Ron Johnson Posted: November 29, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2628413)

Is there a story (I'm guessing injury) behind that?

Hart had chronic shoulder problems -- going back to his rookie season. He also is supposed to have had a fairly serious drinking problem.

In the field he was basically Bobby Bonilla -- without Bonilla's arm.

37. xeifrank Posted: November 29, 2007 at 09:34 PM (#2628480)

4. With Cody Ross likely to start in CF, I don't see the "dire" need for a CFer.
vr, Xei

38. user Posted: November 29, 2007 at 11:45 PM (#2628610)

I know playing time predictions come with a ton of disclaimers but can I ask how the system possibly gives a mean projection of 162 games?

39. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 11:58 PM (#2628615)

I know playing time predictions come with a ton of disclaimers but can I ask how the system possibly gives a mean projection of 162 games?

Kind of an oddball relic of young players games going up quite a bit in their early-mid 20s - kinda low on my priority list to really shore up, to be honest.

40. bigseries Posted: November 30, 2007 at 02:00 PM (#2628989)

This question may have been asked already, but have you released the Major League 1-yr and 3-yr park factors with the six stat categories?

Thanks.

41. BTL: Lesser Primate, 4th Class Trainee Posted: November 30, 2007 at 08:45 PM (#2629831)

Re: Jim Ray Hart. I have either forgotton how to link or the button has been removed.

Someone needs to improve his Wikipedia entry. Very sparse and says he was "never a great player", even though his OPS+ from age 22-26 was something like 133-130-130-152-128, all as a full-time player (over 150 games played each year the first four years, 136 games the fifth year).

His first year in the majors in1963, according to baseball library, he was hit by Bob Gibson in the shoulder blade and later beaned by someone else and missed the rest of the year. Despite this, he had an incredible rookie season in 1964.

42. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 30, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2629861)

Mulvey was better than Gaby last year (similar k/9, slightly better k/bb, much better hr/9) but Gaby's a year younger.

Gaby's biggest problem is that he's too intense - he puts a lot of pressure on himself, and when he does that he starts leaving the ball up and out over the plate. He also wore down near the end of the season.

-- MWE

43. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 30, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2629869)

Thanks Mike.

44. Runscreated Posted: December 03, 2007 at 06:55 AM (#2631914)

Does Uggla's offense outweigh his defensive shortcomings? 11 Errors for a second baseman is not to bad. Is it his range? Turning the DP?

45. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:01 AM (#2631917)

Uggla has really poor range and poor defensive instincts. He'll likely move to third when/if Cabrera gets traded.

46. RobLS Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2641196)

Any projections for Maybin and Miller, now that they have been traded to Florida? Thanks.

47. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:34 PM (#2641201)

Rob, I had projections for them in the thread on the trade that can be found here.

In the final ZiPS release, everybody will be with their correct team (and most of the cracks filled in).

48. RobLS Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:56 PM (#2641235)

Dan, thanks. I forgot about looking there.

Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Reader Comments and Retorts

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics

Syndicate