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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
2008 ZIPS Projections - Florida Marlins
While the pitching was pretty ugly this past season, a sizable chunk of that was due to what is a pretty bad defense, with Ramirez, Uggla, and Willingham being pretty bottom of the barrel, and Cabrera and Jacobs not much better. It's hard to tell, however, if this is going to be a long-term issue because with the Marlins still being unwilling to invest in their team until such time they get a welfare stadium, the team might start getting antsy as these players hit their arbitration years.
The team is still very much in flux as neither Cabrera nor Willis strike me as terribly long for Florida. The best thing they can do is get some offensive prospects that can field their positions (the team is far deeper in pitching than hitting prospects), see if they can flip Uggla, and explore moving Ramirez to an easier position. And until such time that they do any of this, they probably should shy away from ground-ball pitchers. I think Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe would have a nervous breakdown by the end of May in front of these infielders, not that there's any danger of either of them becoming a Marlin.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Miguel Cabrera 3b 25 .324 .418 .577 162 601 107 195 46 2 34 121 92 116 4 2
Hanley Ramirez ss 24 .306 .369 .516 160 653 126 200 48 7 25 91 62 110 46 13
Josh Willingham lf 29 .266 .360 .469 144 493 70 131 30 2 22 76 62 121 4 1
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .272 .354 .461 ------------------------------------------
Val Pascucci 1b 29 .239 .350 .458 137 456 65 109 26 1 24 78 70 154 8 3
Jeremy Hermida* rf 24 .271 .351 .447 132 443 54 120 28 1 16 60 52 110 3 3
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .271 .346 .442 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .270 .343 .443 ------------------------------------------
Mike Jacobs* 1b 27 .266 .324 .467 143 507 66 135 35 2 21 76 43 118 2 1
Dan Uggla 2b 28 .260 .332 .462 161 639 112 166 37 4 28 97 62 152 4 3
Cody Ross rf 27 .255 .330 .457 115 326 49 83 19 1 15 48 33 88 2 1
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .268 .340 .434 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .265 .332 .411 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .270 .333 .400 ------------------------------------------
Joe Borchard# rf 29 .247 .334 .397 107 287 37 71 13 0 10 40 34 104 2 3
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .268 .326 .393 ------------------------------------------
Todd Linden# lf 28 .249 .330 .382 131 385 56 96 20 2 9 44 44 121 6 1
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .255 .318 .390 ------------------------------------------
Aaron Boone 3b 35 .249 .333 .363 65 201 27 50 11 0 4 29 18 41 1 1
Gaby Sanchez 1b 24 .245 .327 .382 124 440 60 108 31 1 9 49 48 86 5 6
Scott Seabol 3b 33 .235 .297 .386 96 319 35 75 16 1 10 46 27 87 1 2
John Gall lf 30 .248 .309 .362 87 290 35 72 15 0 6 40 22 51 3 2
John Baker* c 27 .237 .304 .360 108 350 39 83 23 1 6 37 31 100 2 0
Chase Lambin# ss 28 .235 .305 .369 119 417 44 98 22 2 10 49 38 120 3 4
Chris Coghlan* 2b 23 .239 .302 .358 128 511 55 122 31 3 8 58 43 94 18 7
Matt Treanor c 32 .235 .324 .302 68 179 15 42 6 0 2 16 20 38 0 0
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 30 .254 .316 .336 98 268 31 68 8 4 2 23 23 39 9 7
Eric Riggs# 2b 31 .235 .301 .341 89 302 25 71 15 1 5 35 24 63 2 2
Miguel Olivo c 28 .238 .270 .390 117 403 44 96 18 2 13 55 14 110 4 2
Alejandro de Aza* cf 24 .251 .303 .351 71 231 30 58 13 2 2 17 16 54 10 6
Jai Miller cf 23 .227 .300 .339 132 419 37 95 21 1 8 40 40 153 12 7
Brett Carroll rf 25 .219 .275 .366 152 511 44 112 27 3 14 58 29 144 3 5
Eric Reed* cf 27 .243 .282 .308 109 341 47 83 11 4 1 24 16 93 20 7
Jason Wood 1b 38 .231 .285 .308 88 221 23 51 8 0 3 29 15 66 0 1
Paul Hoover c 32 .216 .275 .299 67 204 17 44 11 0 2 19 16 62 1 1
Robert Andino ss 24 .223 .263 .298 151 601 56 134 20 5 5 42 31 163 15 11
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cabrera Fr
Ramirez Pr
Willingham Pr Pr
Pascucci Av Fr
Hermida* Vg Fr Av
Jacobs* Fr
Uggla Pr
Ross Vg Fr Vg
Super Joe# Fr Fr Av
Linden# Av Pr Av
Boone Av Pr
Sanchez Fr Av Pr
Seabol Av Fr Fr
Who is John Gall? Fr Fr
Baker* Fr
Lambin# Fr Av Fr Fr Fr
Coghlan* Av Av
Treanor Fr
Amezaga# Av Fr Fr Av Av Av
Riggs# Av Pr Av Pr
Olivo Vg Av
de Aza* Vg Av Vg
Miller Vg Vg
Carroll Av Vg Vg
Reed* Vg Vg Vg
Wood Av Fr
Hoover Vg
Andino Vg Av
Player Spotlight - Miguel Cabrera
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .338 .437 .602 162 601 116 203 47 2 36 130 100 111 6 1
Mean .324 .418 .577 162 601 107 195 46 2 34 121 92 116 4 2
Pessimistic (15%) .290 .368 .471 127 469 66 136 28 0 19 77 57 103 2 2
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Ray Hart, Ron Santo
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Henry Owens 29 3.21 3 2 35 0 42.0 37 15 3 17 42
Justin Miller 30 3.49 3 1 47 0 49.0 43 19 5 19 59
Kevin Gregg 30 3.67 3 3 59 0 76.0 69 31 8 30 81
Lee Gardner 33 3.75 5 4 63 0 72.0 75 30 6 21 49
Matthew Lindstrom 28 3.84 4 3 63 0 68.0 67 29 5 24 60
Renyel Pinto* 25 3.91 4 3 71 0 76.0 67 33 8 41 79
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.07 -----------------------------------------------
Brandon Villafuerte 32 4.11 3 2 34 0 46.0 49 21 3 15 32
Josh Johnson 24 4.20 9 7 22 22 122.0 128 57 9 45 92
Logan Kensing 25 4.29 3 2 37 0 42.0 39 20 7 20 48
Dontrelle Willis* 26 4.34 14 13 35 35 224.0 241 108 23 77 162
Taylor Tankersley* 25 4.36 5 4 81 0 66.0 61 32 9 36 70
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.46 -----------------------------------------------
Anibal Sanchez 24 4.58 6 6 20 20 118.0 124 60 15 42 93
Sergio Mitre 27 4.62 6 7 26 20 115.0 128 59 11 37 70
Ross Wolf 25 4.71 3 3 52 0 65.0 73 34 5 23 38
Armando Benitez 35 4.71 3 4 44 0 42.0 41 22 6 23 41
Erasmo Ramirez* 32 4.75 2 3 46 0 53.0 63 28 7 10 24
Byung-Hyun Kim 29 4.76 9 10 33 26 153.0 159 81 17 71 137
Scott Olsen* 24 4.97 10 14 33 33 190.0 205 105 26 80 156
Ricky Nolasco 25 5.15 6 9 25 19 110.0 126 63 18 33 83
Wes Obermueller 31 5.19 3 4 21 12 85.0 93 49 9 44 56
Aaron Thompson* 21 5.19 5 8 23 22 130.0 148 75 15 53 83
Scott Nestor 23 5.28 3 5 60 0 75.0 74 44 9 52 65
Nic Ungs 28 5.28 5 7 25 20 121.0 139 71 16 47 73
Chris George* 28 5.39 6 9 26 22 132.0 146 79 18 65 100
Jesus Delgado 24 5.47 4 7 33 10 79.0 86 48 9 45 54
Daniel Barone 25 5.52 5 8 33 20 145.0 170 89 25 46 88
Henricus van den Hurk 23 5.52 4 6 20 19 101.0 104 62 18 49 99
Harvey Garcia 24 5.80 3 7 71 0 90.0 94 58 15 53 85
Gaby Hernandez 22 5.94 7 13 27 27 147.0 171 97 25 65 92
Chris Seddon* 24 6.02 6 13 33 31 163.0 195 109 28 62 97
Christopher Volstad 21 6.12 7 15 28 27 169.0 210 115 29 62 92
Marcos Carvajal 23 6.25 3 8 37 14 108.0 123 75 18 72 75
Carlos Martinez 26 6.30 1 3 34 0 40.0 48 28 9 13 31
Blake McGinley 29 6.49 3 8 39 8 79.0 95 57 19 25 53
Scott Tyler 25 6.79 1 2 43 0 53.0 55 40 6 59 42
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Dontrelle Willis
Name ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.63 16 10 35 35 228 228 92 19 66 175
Mean 4.34 14 13 35 35 224 241 108 23 77 162
Pessimistic (15%) 5.27 9 13 29 29 181 211 106 25 73 125
Top Near-Age Comps: Mike Hampton, Paul Splittorff
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 28, 2007 at 05:00 PM | 48 comment(s)
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EDIT: Referring to Miguel Cabrera, of course.
Power of shrinkage. No one is supposed to be that good... the prediction just won't let itself get out that far, I would guess.
When he broke in, the big debate was who was going to have more value, Hermida or Frenchy...Seems like that fight was a TKO
I am astonished that Dontrelle would project so poorly. I know he had an ugly 2007 but... man.
I don't get it.
Why are Cabrera's comps so unimpressive? I'm just a little surprised to see those names there and not, you know, Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or someone like that.
It looks remarkably similar to his 4.36 FIP 2006 campaign.
It looks remarkably similar to his 4.36 FIP 2006 campaign.
His home runs allowed spiked but I see what you mean.
I can't tell if this is a joke or not.
Ron Santo's a should-be easy HOFer and Jim Ray Hart was an awesome player. Cabrera's fairly unique, too - not a lot of 3B before ZiPS insists on finding 1B and corner outfielders. Aaron's on that list, as are Bagwell, Vlad, and Brett, among others.
I mean the projection looks similar to his 2006 line (identical WHIP, 21 HR, 160/83 K/BB). Just an ER result more in line with his DIPS numbers.
be pitched to.
-- MWE
Messed up his shoulder, I think.
-- MWE
(checks website)
Why didn't anyone tell me this "Rick van den Hurk" was a living, breathing guy from the Netherlands?! MLB really has to publicize things like that better. I had no idea any Dutch person who wasn't actually from a Caribbean island was a good enough prospect to be in an MLB rotation in the near future, let alone was in one for much of the last season.
Why, he might already be better than Robert Eenhorn AND Rikkert Faneyte!
I don't get it.
It won't help deflect accusations that Dan is a crypto-Randian.
You didn't ask. (ba da boom)
Vanden Hurk (that's how he was listed in the game programs) is a 6'5" righty who has spent much of his minor league career hurt (he had TJ surgery in 2005). He pitched very well for the Mudcats, which is where he was supposed to be all year and probably would have been if Ricky Nolasco hadn't gotten hurt. He cameoed with the big club before coming down to Five County, and impressed Fredi Gonzalez enough so that when Florida needed a starter in June he came back up. He's going to be a good major league pitcher if he stays healthy.
-- MWE
They have one. The problem is that he's playing currently shortshop.
They've needed one for three years, and they refuse to address the problem.
-- MWE
Signing Shea Hillenbrand as your DH was a failure from the start.
I'm surprised in the small difference between Miggy's average and optimistic line, though I admit I don't have the first clue how they are figured. My gut feeling is that an optimistic season from Miggy includes 40 homers, and that he must have a 90% chance of hitting 40+ one of these years.
The defense behind him was not all that much better than in 2007.
2006 DER .692, 2007 .682
I'm not saying the lousy defense didn't hurt him....of course he did.
But the guy had a 5.10 FIP and 4.76 xFIP last year. Certainly he has to take SOME responsibility for that, no?
I've always kept on a eye on Gaby Hernandez because he's the prospect the Mets gave up for Lo Duca. I like to compare him to Kevin Mulvey because the Mets could have signed Ramon Hernandez and kept Gaby but instead chose to trade for Lo Duca and keep the draft pick they used on Mulvey. It's interesting to see that Zips likes Mulvey a lot more than Herrnandez. Mulvey was better than Gaby last year (similar k/9, slightly better k/bb, much better hr/9) but Gaby's a year younger.
It's a travesty for Marlin pitchers that they have to pitch in front of that joke of a defense.
Wait, I thought Colorado had a great defense... I mean I'm sure the playoff commentators were exaggerating it a bit, but were they really that far off?
Count yourself fortunate. It's from the worst book I will ever read.
Is the "LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER/RELIEVER" line adjusted for defense as well as park? Should it be?
To the latter question, I would think yes. Why define someone who would have an above-average ERA in a neutral park with average defense support as "below average" just because they happen to play for the Marlins?
Hart had chronic shoulder problems -- going back to his rookie season. He also is supposed to have had a fairly serious drinking problem.
In the field he was basically Bobby Bonilla -- without Bonilla's arm.
vr, Xei
Kind of an oddball relic of young players games going up quite a bit in their early-mid 20s - kinda low on my priority list to really shore up, to be honest.
Thanks.
Someone needs to improve his Wikipedia entry. Very sparse and says he was "never a great player", even though his OPS+ from age 22-26 was something like 133-130-130-152-128, all as a full-time player (over 150 games played each year the first four years, 136 games the fifth year).
His first year in the majors in1963, according to baseball library, he was hit by Bob Gibson in the shoulder blade and later beaned by someone else and missed the rest of the year. Despite this, he had an incredible rookie season in 1964.
Gaby's biggest problem is that he's too intense - he puts a lot of pressure on himself, and when he does that he starts leaving the ball up and out over the plate. He also wore down near the end of the season.
-- MWE
In the final ZiPS release, everybody will be with their correct team (and most of the cracks filled in).
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