did jeff fassero finally retire?

Any chance of getting projections for 2B/CF Alexei Ramirez? Thanks again for all of your hard work, Dan

You need minor league stats to project someone. Conversions from Japan are well documented, but from any other league, there isn't enough data to go on.

I have a rudimentary college translation that I use when I absolutely have to (I couldn't get away with not doing Weeks in 2004), but I don't even know where to start with translating a Cuban. Hell, we barely know their ages within 5 years!

I know Davenport had some fun come WBC time, trying to guess at conversion factors from some of the most obscure leagues at the time. Granted, the more players that can be done, the better (I managed to win the Price sweepstakes in my keeper sim league.) But considering low minors isn't always an exact science either, it's mostly debating whether a larger sample size compensates for the higher error of sketchy translations.

Can you do Duchscherer, Affeldt, Myers, and Dempster as starters? And maybe Carlos Villanueva as a full-time starter?

Dan released a tool some time back where you could plug in pitcher numbers, and it converted them to SP/RP as you see fit... I'll plug them in, and assuming the logic hasn't changed, these ought to be the results.

J.Duchscherer: 9-6, 21 GS, 128 IP, 132 H, 54 ER, 15 HR, 26 BB, 102 SO, 3.80 ERA
J.Affeldt: 8-11, 27 GS, 128 IP, 139 H, 77 ER, 15 HR, 66 BB, 76 SO, 5.41 ERA
B.Myers: 12-10, 31 GS, 193 IP, 192 H, 89 ER, 32 HR, 56 BB, 183 SO, 4.15 ERA
R.Dempster: 9-11, 27 GS, 141.7 IP, 149 H, 80 ER, 17 HR, 64 BB, 106 SO, 5.08 ERA
C.Villaneuva: 8-8, 22 GS, 143.3 IP, 147 H, 76 ER, 22 HR, 55 BB, 110 SO, 4.77 ERA

I heard the Brewers might start Villanueva in the minors because he has an option left!

Everyone being considered for the 4/5 spots has options left (including Capuano) except Vargas.

Hi,

Over on the DMB forum, there's some discussion about how splits play out in your ZiPS disk. David Pyke, DMB's tech support man, said as follows:

"If the player records on the ZiPS Projection disk were created using the "Overall" method, which I think we can assume, then DMB would "use historical norms to rate batters to perform better against opposite-handed pitchers. The difference is about 20 batting average points and 30-40 points in slugging average. In other words, a lefty hitter who batted .280 overall would be rated to hit about .287 against righties and .267 against lefties. If that player faces righties about 2/3 of the time, his overall average in his DMB games would be around .280. Similar adjustments are made for right-handed batters and for pitchers."

I'm thinking that what David says is indeed the case with ZiPS: that if you use the disk, over time, splits will tend to fall out along the lines of historical norms. There have been some questions posed by folks who are assuming (without being certain or testing them) that the splits are totally vanilla; i.e., they don't exist.

Knowing what you know about DMB's game engine and how the ZiPS disk was created, would splits tend to fall out over historical norms over time?

Thanks.

TR

Ted, I haven't been approved for posting by admins yet, so until then:

I've always taken it for granted that any split created with overall would have the event table apply generic historical splits as that's always been my experience - I've played a ridiculous amount of DMB. If I thought that "Overall" generated an event table was the same for lefties as righties, I'd definitely make more of an effort to project splits. The only thing I've done differently this year (though not for the first release) is regenerate tables for starting switch-hitters with strong platoon splits (like Orlando Hudson) by changing them to the side of the plate they're in tune with, regenerating the event table, and then putting them back to switch.

Dan,

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I think this will make some posters on the DMB forum (including me) pretty happy.

Is it okay if I put your reply up on the thread where this is being discussed, or would you rather answer questions there yourself if you post there?

Thanks again.

I'd like to put up my reply myself, if only because it took me awhile to figure out what the hell "Yuku" was and to actually get it to accept my interpretation of the 4 letter picture design!

Well, you certainly deserve to do the honors. "Yuku" is one of those words that gives me the willies even to say. Like a "venti" coffee at Starbucks.

Thanks for your feedback. Dan.

SG ran 100 iterations with the ZiPS projection disk. Here's his post on the DMB forum and link to his spread sheet:

TedRoethke (and anyone else who's curious), you can download the splits for 100 iterations with the ZiPS projection disk here:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/ZiPSsplits100iterations.zip

I just want to say that I hope Dan continues these projection disks despite the drama over at Diamond Mind.