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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
While the projections aren't exactly the rosiest for 2008, there's a lot more to like here than there was this time last year. Dayton Moore has had a lot of work to do since taking over and he will continue to have a lot to do as there was simply a lot of organizational mess to clean up from the previous regime. But Moore's done a good job so far cleaning out the Augean stables and there really are good reasons to hope. Gordon will be fine in the long run, Butler's way to a DH job is more clear with some of the leftovers now safely out of the way. Hochevar and Cortes aren't ready yet, but should continue to develop nicely and if Greinke's various issues are out of the way, he could beat that projection impressively. I think 3 league-average or better starting pitchers is the best ZiPS has projected in years!
As long as the Royals stay on task, keep trying out young pitchers (I projected a dozen 25-and-under hurlers and there are more in the low levels), they should find some more gems, as they did with Soria. That's the best part about truly rebuilding - you can try out players that you'd never get a chance to see when you're not obsessed with pulling out all the stops for an 80-win season, as was the case before Moore took over, when Baird was signing all sorts of mediocre guys, from Sanders to Elarton, with no clear organizational purpose other than "not be horrible." By developing the team to one day actually be "good," Moore's likely to be a lot more effective at fulfilling Baird's goal than Baird was. This might not be the year, but the White Sox should start looking in the rear-view mirror.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .284 .363 .477 ------------------------------------------
Billy Butler lf 22 .288 .360 .471 144 524 67 151 36 3 18 80 57 73 0 0
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282 .354 .458 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .282 .352 .460 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .279 .348 .450 ------------------------------------------
Mark Teahen* rf 26 .279 .351 .431 161 580 87 162 35 7 13 72 62 134 9 1
Alex Gordon* 3b 24 .264 .339 .453 160 569 71 150 39 3 21 77 53 139 16 4
David DeJesus* cf 28 .287 .355 .431 128 501 81 144 31 4 11 55 46 76 8 6
Ryan Shealy 1b 28 .268 .336 .439 122 358 48 96 20 1 13 49 33 128 1 0
Ross Gload* 1b 32 .292 .332 .447 97 264 34 77 18 1 7 38 16 35 2 1
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .276 .341 .427 ------------------------------------------
Justin Huber 1b 25 .279 .334 .437 124 423 36 118 23 1 14 51 30 89 1 1
Mike Sweeney dh 34 .266 .331 .433 79 289 32 77 21 0 9 47 24 43 1 0
Esteban German 2b 30 .284 .364 .383 120 366 62 104 19 4 3 40 42 58 16 6
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .284 .342 .416 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .279 .335 .409 ------------------------------------------
Mark Grudzielanek 2b 38 .292 .332 .402 105 408 59 119 26 2 5 49 20 56 1 2
Emil Brown lf 33 .268 .332 .392 105 362 48 97 19 1 8 56 33 72 6 1
Reggie Sanders rf 40 .250 .323 .419 51 172 26 43 11 0 6 33 17 49 4 2
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .265 .327 .405 ------------------------------------------
Shane Costa* rf 26 .266 .313 .396 143 455 54 121 32 3 7 43 25 62 6 2
John Buck c 27 .232 .301 .394 125 401 45 93 20 0 15 53 34 98 1 2
Joey Gathright* cf 27 .270 .344 .328 153 482 72 130 17 4 1 38 47 83 31 15
Craig Brazell* 1b 28 .243 .281 .421 119 432 36 105 24 1 17 60 21 95 1 1
Mitch Maier* cf 26 .260 .303 .384 153 580 68 151 31 4 11 61 33 103 7 5
Jorge Padilla rf 28 .253 .307 .338 126 438 50 111 17 1 6 41 29 84 8 5
Chris Lubanski* lf 23 .238 .298 .360 140 508 49 121 27 4 9 50 44 112 5 7
Tony Pena ss 27 .270 .294 .354 124 426 53 115 19 4 3 38 12 76 9 7
Jason Smith* ss 30 .241 .277 .382 92 241 29 58 10 3 6 29 11 69 4 3
Adam Greenberg* cf 27 .217 .318 .315 107 336 43 73 16 4 3 27 45 93 9 5
Matt Tupman* c 28 .246 .327 .291 97 313 25 77 11 0 1 25 36 39 2 2
Mike Aviles ss 27 .250 .285 .343 134 513 48 128 21 3 7 50 25 55 6 4
Mario Lisson 3b 24 .234 .296 .326 150 531 53 124 23 1 8 50 39 117 23 12
Angel Berroa ss 30 .244 .285 .331 125 459 48 112 18 2 6 44 18 81 4 4
Angel Sanchez ss 24 .251 .297 .312 103 398 57 100 16 1 2 30 22 47 3 5
Bill McCarthy rf 28 .214 .266 .328 106 360 31 77 15 1 8 34 19 94 2 2
Fernando Cortez* 2b 26 .240 .278 .295 121 434 48 104 17 2 1 29 21 70 11 4
Paul Phillips c 31 .217 .259 .294 91 309 30 67 12 0 4 27 16 38 1 1
Adam Donachie c 24 .192 .263 .279 105 333 31 64 14 0 5 25 30 91 0 0
Derek Wathan# 3b 31 .215 .251 .293 73 242 24 52 11 1 2 20 11 41 5 2
Richard Lewis 2b 28 .209 .258 .277 108 339 36 71 12 1 3 28 19 71 4 3
Onil Joseph rf 26 .230 .258 .290 126 427 38 98 11 3 3 32 15 108 6 10
Andres Blanco# ss 24 .217 .265 .251 76 235 20 51 6 1 0 15 13 32 2 2
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Butler Fr Pr Pr
Teahen* Pr Av Pr Av
Gordon* Av Av
DeJesus* Vg Vg
Shealy Av
Gload* Fr Fr Fr
Huber Fr Fr Fr
Sweeney Pr
German Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr
Grudzielanek Av
Brown Fr Av
Sanders Fr Fr
Costa* Av Pr Av
Buck Av
Gathright* Vg Av
Brazell* Fr Fr
Maier* Vg Av Vg
Padilla Av Vg
Lubanski* Vg
Pena Vg
Smith* Av Av Av
Greenberg* Vg Av Vg
Tupman* Vg
Aviles Vg Vg Av
Lisson Vg Vg Fr
Berroa Fr Fr Fr
Sanchez Vg
McCarthy Av Av
Cortez* Vg Vg Vg Vg Av
Phillips Vg
Donachie Av
Wathan# Av Av Av Fr Av Fr Av
Lewis Vg Vg Av Vg
Joseph Av Fr Av
Blanco# Vg Av
Player Spotlight - Alex Gordon
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .292 .373 .524 162 578 86 169 42 4 28 104 58 127 20 3
Mean .264 .339 .453 160 569 71 150 39 3 21 77 53 139 16 4
Pessimistic (15%) .243 .307 .400 123 437 47 106 25 1 14 58 35 117 8 4
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Eric Hinske, Grady Hatton
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Joakim Soria 24 2.83 3 1 48 0 54.0 46 17 4 12 56
Neal Musser* 27 3.99 3 3 51 0 79.0 83 35 8 27 56
David Riske 31 4.14 3 2 58 0 63.0 64 29 9 23 44
Joel Peralta 32 4.26 3 2 60 0 76.0 80 36 9 20 55
Jimmy Gobble* 26 4.29 3 3 76 0 65.0 68 31 8 22 59
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.41 -----------------------------------------------
John Bale* 34 4.42 1 2 39 0 53.0 56 26 5 16 41
Gil Meche 29 4.55 9 11 32 31 188.0 200 95 21 66 126
Zack Greinke 24 4.76 9 10 27 27 155.0 171 82 23 40 110
Ryan Braun 27 4.79 3 4 43 0 62.0 66 33 6 28 44
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.81 -----------------------------------------------
Brian Bannister 27 4.84 8 11 26 26 147.0 167 79 18 43 75
Leo Nunez 24 5.17 4 6 36 10 87.0 98 50 16 27 57
Colby Lewis 28 5.31 5 8 34 19 134.0 156 79 20 43 72
Odalis Perez* 31 5.31 6 10 25 21 122.0 147 72 14 40 68
Luke Hudson 31 5.33 4 6 20 12 76.0 84 45 9 34 45
Brandon Duckworth 32 5.51 5 8 27 15 98.0 116 60 12 43 53
Jarod Plummer 24 5.57 5 10 49 3 97.0 110 60 21 25 77
Ben Hendrickson 27 5.62 6 11 27 23 141.0 170 88 18 61 64
Jorge de la Rosa* 27 5.65 5 10 34 17 110.0 127 69 15 54 72
Blake Johnson 23 5.65 5 9 30 22 129.0 161 81 18 34 52
Matt Wright 26 5.70 6 10 25 21 128.0 149 81 19 49 75
Billy Buckner 24 5.82 7 14 36 27 167.0 198 108 27 70 98
John Thomson 34 5.85 3 7 16 15 80.0 99 52 11 30 40
Carlos Rosa 23 5.93 5 11 27 25 135.0 165 89 19 62 63
Luke Hochevar 24 5.98 5 12 31 29 170.0 200 113 31 67 112
Roman Colon 28 6.09 1 2 17 2 34.0 42 23 6 14 20
Dan Cortes 21 6.13 5 12 27 27 141.0 168 96 21 66 81
Zach Day 30 6.15 2 4 16 12 60.0 72 41 8 32 27
Tyler Lumsden* 25 6.25 5 12 28 27 144.0 180 100 21 70 58
Kyle Davies 24 6.41 6 14 27 27 132.0 162 94 22 61 81
Mike Connolly* 26 6.47 4 11 29 22 135.0 168 97 25 55 65
Julio Caesar Pimentel 22 6.69 4 11 33 16 121.0 160 90 20 65 39
Juan Cedeno* 24 7.55 2 6 40 6 87.0 111 73 18 60 42
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Gilgamesh
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.80 13 9 35 34 211 208 89 18 64 152
Mean 4.55 9 11 32 31 188 200 95 21 66 126
Pessimistic (15%) 5.54 6 11 27 26 151 179 93 22 63 93
Top Near-Age Comps: Pete Vuckovich, Rick Helling
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 21, 2007 at 10:24 PM | 24 comment(s)
Related News: Kansas City, ZIPS
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Blanco and Berroa have mediocre to awful ratings, and yet they always out-hit any all-star I bring over to the team.
That's a lot of 1b/dh types
Godspeed, Dayton.
Ouch.
Edith Hamilton would be pleased.
Just thought you would like to know that in trying to access 'past' zips posts, I was unable to get the Los Angeles Angels page, as there seems to be an extra 'http' in the web address.
Also, the Pittsburgh Pirates page is showing as page not found.
Even the servers can't handle that anymore
Truly the second baseman from hell.
He of the almost-perfect, perfect game? Damn that Mike the Mouth!!!
I think this is one player where the scouts will blow away the stats. Gordon is the read deal, stats have a real problem projecting a guy that skipped a level with little else to project from.
Gordon will be way over.
In this case however there was something with his swing that they were definitely they were working hard on at the end of the spring training and through April, so I think the odds he beats the projections are pretty good. Even still it just goes to show you throw out a .173 April and .195 May the projection only gains about 40 points of OPS.
But he threw a perfect game in the Mexican League! Use that as a data point!
really?
Even with guys like Gordon and Kouzmanoff???
BUt then again guys who aren't rookies sometimes have absurdly bad months- like Dioner Navvarro and Lugo in 2007....
I have a sneaking suspicion that soemtimes when a player's stats are being warped by an absurdly BAD stretch- Like Navarro's May or Lugo's June and such player has shown himself to be an MLB player and later his bat recovers- projections may be more accurate if that absurd stretch is thrown out-
I don't mean a garden variety slump- I mean when a batter hits like a pitcher or worse for 100-150 ABs- when I see that I tend to assume that something was going on, maybe an injury or other issue and absent a lingering injury issue- that skunk stretch should be ignored
But what really happened is that he had a really good June, and then was very mediocre the second half of the season. Specifically, he became much more aggressive, and almost completely stopped drawing walks. This helped him raise his slugging percentage pretty dramatically, but didn't actually make him a good hitter. I don't think this a real good sign for the future. He may turn into a good player, but I don't think you can project stardom at this point. Dan's projection seems pretty reasonable to me.
Hope you don't mind me not updating the preformatted text above, it's really a pain doing that since expression engine editing screen isn't a fixed-width font! He'll appear in all future spreadsheets and such, though.
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