BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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1. joker24 Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:30 AM (#2619659)

Typo alert, the Willits optimistic is flip flopped with the mean.

2. The District Attorney Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2619663)

"Buzz"?

3. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:38 AM (#2619665)

So, it looks like the Angels are projected to have awesome pitching and so-so hitting for the 2312 year in a row. What's up with the Buzz nickname for Darren Oliver?

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:45 AM (#2619669)

The nickname Buzz is sorely misused in 21st century and giving it to Oliver keeps alive one of the funniest game cancellations in history. Besides, where Darren Oliver was a crappy starter, Buzz Oliver is a good reliever.

5. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2619674)

Joba Chamberlain already has a cool name, or otherwise "Midge Chamberlain" would be appropriate.

Also, the Angels' only left-handed pitchers are Buzz Oliver, Joe Saunders and some 28-year-old minor league veteran who's unlikely to be on the 40-man roster? That's pretty odd.

6. The District Attorney Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:53 AM (#2619678)

Oh, okay. I remember now.

When you say "pessimistic" about Willits, you ain't kidding. I can imagine it though, although, as you say, only 15% likely.

If Colon can manage that, whoever signs him will probably be pretty satisfied.

7. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:54 AM (#2619681)

I was shocked to find out that Reggie Willits is white.

8. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:02 AM (#2619691)

And the last remaining person on BTF has finally said that he thought Reggie Willits was black. Now we can all move on.

9. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:06 AM (#2619694)

How, this Howie Kendrick fella... Sounds like a corn-fed Nebraska boy in the mold of Pete Rose.

10. mcopeland Posted: November 19, 2007 at 01:47 PM (#2619796)

I'm trying to think of famous white people named Reggie, but they are definitely outnumbered:

Reggie Jackson
Reggie Sanders
Reggie Bush
Reggie Miller
Reggie Theus
Reggie Roby

Admittedly, those are all sports figures....

11. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 01:55 PM (#2619800)

Elton John's real name is Reginald if I'm not mistaken.

12. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:04 PM (#2619807)

Reggie from the Archie comics was as white as can be.

13. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:15 PM (#2619818)

<i>Reggie from the Archie comics was as white as can be.</i?

He also forgot Reginald van Gleason III.

14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2619828)

"I'm trying to think of famous white people named Reggie, but they are definitely outnumbered:"

Reggie Cleveland?

15. Dizzypaco Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:33 PM (#2619833)

The famous Mickey Rivers quote:

To Reginald Martinez Jackson, "No wonder you're so messed up. You've got a white first name, a Spanish middle name, and a black last name."

Obviously, at one time, Reggie was considered a white name. I wonder if Reggie Jackson is partly responsible for it becoming popular with African Americans. Some of the athletes mentioned above pre-date Reggie's playing days, so I guess not...

16. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:35 PM (#2619836)

The famous Mickey Rivers quote:

To Reginald Martinez Jackson, "No wonder you're so messed up. You've got a white first name, a Spanish middle name, and a black last name."

I love that. Reggie's response to that was, "Look at me, arguing with a man who can't read or write." To which Rivers responded, "Maybe you should do less reading and writing and more hitting." I'm paraphrasing here but Mickey Rivers was a sharp wit.

17. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:44 PM (#2619843)

The character Reggie Lampert was tres blanc in Charade.

18. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:46 PM (#2619844)

I'm trying to think of famous white people named Reggie, but they are definitely outnumbered

Reggie Perrin?

19. Loren F.'s well-anchored glenoid Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:52 PM (#2619849)

I loved The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin. A truly overlooked gem -- nearly as good as Fawlty Towers, but in a different way.

20. shoewizard Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:53 PM (#2619852)

Any team is going to be a lot worse without their best player, but if Vlad misses any significant amount of time, the Angels look like a team that could go from first to worst in their division very quickly.

21. shoewizard Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:55 PM (#2619856)

Oh...and why is Ervin Santana's projection listed twice in a row? ;)

22. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:58 PM (#2619862)

I think Howie Kendrick will outperform Zips. I hope he does as I think he's a snazzy player. Looking this over, though, I wonder if the Angels will feel pressure to make a trade for Cabrera and what it would take to do it. Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar don't have the luster they once had. If they have to use Howie Kendrick as a centerpiece, I understand why they would be reluctant to pull the trigger.

23. Kyle S Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2619866)

Howie has a projected .348 BABIP and that's still an ugly line. Angels fans, still don't want to trade him for Cabrera?

24. NJ is feeling better Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2619884)

What Kyle S said.

25. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:18 PM (#2619896)

Oh yeah, not that many care, but the Angels lost Warner Madrigal because they added him to the 40 man roster too late. He became a minor league free agent and signed with Texas. From rotoworld.

26. AROM Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2619900)

Ugly? - I don't think so he's only a tiny bit under average 2B where he plays good defense, and young enough to get much better.

If they trade for Cabrera they'll be trading for a DH. He can't play third, his only viable defensive spot is 1B, and Kotchman has that spot. Cabrera would probably fight being used as a DH anyway - its a serious hit on a player's free agent value. Then we'd also have to trade 3 other players.

I'm neutral on a Cabrera acquisition. Yes, he's a great hitter, but the cost is high and he has his liabilities too.

I'd like to see a contract swap of Matthews Jr. for Scott Rolen, followed by a signing of Torii Hunter, but that's not going to happen - not only did they give Gm jr all that money they gave him a no-trade clause.

27. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2619901)

Reggie Lemelin was a pretty decent goalie in the 1980s.

28. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2619912)

Reggie White

29. The District Attorney Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2619913)

That's true... he was White.

30. Mike Green Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2619914)

Jeff Mathis' projection is pretty stinky. The LAA offence is truly mediocre.

With the unbalanced schedule, the Angels look better than they are, as the AL West is the weak division of the stronger league. Nonetheless, the Cards of 06 demonstrate that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than a shark in an ocean.

31. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:56 PM (#2619943)

Add 20 points of average to Kendrick, and thus 20 pts of OBP and SLG, and his projection is more likely and much more valuable.

32. Kyle S Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2620019)

33. Los Angeles ALBERT F. PUJOLS of Anaheim

Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2620081)

I'll bet my house that Kotchman and Kendrick beat their projections.

34. channeling my inner STEAGLES Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2620447)

it should be noted that after missing the majority of 2006 with mononucleosis, kotchman was hitting .330 in 2007 before getting hit by s pitch in the head on june 16, which resulted in a concussion.

before that date, he hit .333/.411/.557. after missing 9 days, he came back, and for the rest of the season, hit .263/.338/.390.

i'll take the over on his 2008 projection.

35. Danny Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:38 AM (#2620840)

With the unbalanced schedule, the Angels look better than they are, as the AL West is the weak division of the stronger league. Nonetheless, the Cards of 06 demonstrate that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than a shark in an ocean.

The West has had the best record of any division in the AL for 8 consecutive years.

36. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2620852)

The beasts of the East have to beat up on each other!

37. Danny Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:56 AM (#2620865)

Huh? Each division has a .500 intradivision record. The best division should have the best record outside of the division. That's the AL West.

38. Shredder Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:26 AM (#2620894)

So, it looks like the Angels are projected to have awesome pitching and so-so hitting for the 2312 year in a row. What's up with the Buzz nickname for Darren Oliver?

Wow, I didn't realize 2000 was so long ago.

Funny, now that I look at it, they were tops in slugging, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in homers in 2000, yet 8th in runs scored. Almost the complete opposite of what they've done for the last couple years. Their pitching was awful, though.

39. Matt Welch Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:56 AM (#2620913)

So, it looks like the Angels are projected to have awesome pitching and so-so hitting for the 2312 year in a row.

They were 4th in runs per game last year (ahead of Cleveland) and 5th in runs allowed, despite way more injuries in the lineup than the rotation.

Looking this over, though, I wonder if the Angels will feel pressure to make a trade for Cabrera and what it would take to do it.

You rang!

40. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 20, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2621538)

BLB, I agree with the results of your "revised projection", but disagree that it's much more likely. ZiPS and CHONE are almost identical wrt Kendrick. Sure, he could hit 330 while striking out that much (or start striking out less), but that's not the median expectation of his performance.

Projection systems seem to regress batting average too much for high average hitters. I think .315 is much more likely for Kendrick than .295. A .348/.450 hitter is much better than a .328/.430.

41. Kyle S Posted: November 20, 2007 at 07:56 PM (#2621597)

Projection systems seem to regress batting average too much for high average hitters.

I'm not so sure that this is true. I looked at CHONE 2007 forecasts and found the 10 hitters projected to hit for the highest average. I compared their actual averages with their forecast averages.

Hitter______ CHONE Actl Delta Result

Pujols,Albert .323 .327 +.004 Higher

Guerrero,Vlad .321 .324 +.003 Higher

Cabrera,Migue .320 .320 +.000 Even

Mauer,Joe____ .318 .293 -.025 Lower

Atkins,Garret .312 .301 -.011 Lower

Cano,Robinson .312 .306 -.006 Lower

Mccann,Brian_ .312 .270 -.042 Lower

Suzuki,Ichiro .311 .351 +.040 Higher

Crawford,Carl .309 .315 +.006 Higher

Jeter,Derek__ .309 .322 +.013 Higher

AVERAGE______ .315 .313 -.002

Other than two big outliers either way (McCann and Ichiro), everyone else was in a pretty tight band. As you'd expect with an unbiased estimator, 5 had higher averages than forecast, 4 had lower, and one was dead on.

42. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 21, 2007 at 04:10 AM (#2622269)

Joe Saunders doens't project to be better than league average? Wow

43. Barca Posted: December 19, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2649897)

So the only Angel hitters projected to be better than average at their position are Vlad and Napoli?
Wow!

44. AROM Posted: December 19, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2649930)

Hunter should have no trouble topping the average CF line.

45. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 19, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2649936)

Jeter,Derek__ .309 .322 +.013 Higher

Jeter is so good at getting basehits. Whistful sigh.

46. Al Kaline Trio Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2651684)

#41 The two biggest dropoffs were catchers which seems like a different situation than other positions to me for whatever that's worth.

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