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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, November 19, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels
With the A's maybe rebuilding, the Mariners a team with some talent run by Buzzie's Other Idiot Son, and the Rangers, well, the Rangers, the Angels should have by far the easiest path to a 2008 playoff spot in baseball. The strengths of the team are pretty obvious; a terrific trio of Escobar, Lackey, and the Dream Weaver (Jeff being the Nightmare Weaver), and a still potent Vlad. While ZiPS might look down on the offense, it's not really as bad as the high position of those average lines make it look (unlike, say, the Giants) as pretty much everyone is just ever-so-slightly below their average and there are no horrific holes in the offense with the overdue dumping of Shea Hillenbrand back in July. It didn't quite work in 2007, but the Angels do still have the ability to go deep in the playoffs.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Vladimir Guerrero rf 32 .310 .384 .517 154 588 95 182 36 1 28 111 66 63 8 3
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .284 .363 .457 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282 .353 .461 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .282 .351 .463 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .279 .347 .454 ------------------------------------------
Casey Kotchman* 1b 25 .273 .350 .445 105 330 44 90 26 2 9 49 39 35 1 3
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .276 .340 .429 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .281 .341 .419 ------------------------------------------
Juan Rivera lf 29 .275 .324 .448 95 324 40 89 20 0 12 56 21 39 1 2
Howie Kendrick 2b 24 .295 .328 .430 134 509 66 150 33 3 10 60 18 92 9 4
Gary Matthews Jr.# cf 33 .268 .337 .417 135 511 75 137 28 3 14 59 51 93 11 4
Chone Figgins# 3b 30 .283 .354 .386 141 552 92 156 25 7 6 58 60 91 41 12
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .279 .334 .418 ------------------------------------------
Mike Napoli c 26 .227 .339 .417 111 321 52 73 17 1 14 44 50 101 3 3
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .265 .326 .407 ------------------------------------------
Reggie Willits# lf 27 .274 .372 .338 147 456 78 125 22 2 1 70 70 83 25 10
Maicer Izturis# 3b 27 .273 .346 .378 127 410 61 112 22 3 5 47 45 47 11 6
Garret Anderson* lf 36 .268 .312 .424 104 406 52 109 25 1 12 65 26 66 0 0
Kendry Morales# 1b 25 .274 .317 .424 128 453 50 124 28 2 12 57 25 71 0 3
Dallas McPherson* 3b 27 .237 .297 .447 68 228 30 54 14 2 10 32 18 83 4 2
Orlando Cabrera ss 33 .274 .328 .364 149 591 86 162 33 1 6 67 47 59 18 3
Robb Quinlan 1b 31 .262 .312 .381 78 202 24 53 12 0 4 22 13 32 1 2
Mike Eylward 1b 28 .256 .314 .357 131 457 48 117 26 1 6 54 34 74 1 4
Sean Rodriguez ss 23 .237 .312 .355 139 510 52 121 23 2 11 49 40 155 11 6
Nick Gorneault lf 29 .235 .298 .376 116 417 56 98 19 2 12 46 35 121 7 5
Brandon Wood 3b 23 .228 .292 .368 120 443 40 101 24 1 12 48 38 153 10 2
Terry Evans rf 26 .236 .280 .384 148 542 55 128 28 2 16 60 28 178 21 7
Jeff Mathis c 25 .233 .285 .361 144 493 31 115 31 1 10 49 34 112 2 2
Bobby Wilson c 25 .234 .288 .350 120 411 33 96 22 1 8 44 30 66 3 3
Adam Morrissey 2b 27 .225 .310 .306 116 409 45 92 16 1 5 33 43 136 4 4
Matthew Brown 3b 25 .216 .280 .355 138 485 45 105 26 1 13 46 37 144 6 6
Curtis Pride* cf 39 .215 .306 .297 68 195 22 42 10 0 2 17 24 67 7 3
Nathan Haynes* cf 28 .247 .302 .302 68 215 28 53 6 3 0 14 15 60 10 7
Ryan Budde c 28 .213 .268 .322 71 211 19 45 11 0 4 21 13 53 2 1
Adam Pavkovich 2b 26 .217 .280 .310 106 323 31 70 16 1 4 28 26 80 4 7
Erick Aybar# 2b 24 .242 .274 .321 122 343 42 83 14 2 3 31 14 51 15 12
Hainley Statia# ss 22 .232 .279 .292 145 548 61 127 24 3 1 43 35 94 20 13
Casey Smith ss 29 .228 .271 .295 117 403 44 92 20 2 1 35 21 70 7 4
Michael Collins 1b 23 .222 .272 .289 130 464 37 103 17 1 4 42 12 65 4 5
Drew Toussaint lf 25 .204 .257 .295 130 437 34 89 20 1 6 31 25 138 3 4
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Guerrero Av
Kotchman* Vg
Rivera Av Av
Kendrick Fr Vg
Sarge Lite# Fr Av
Figgins# Fr Pr Vg Av Vg
Napoli Fr
Willits# Ex Pr Av
Izturis# Av Av Av
Anderson* Av
Morales# Av Av
McPherson* Av Fr
Cabrera Av
Quinlan Av Pr Av Av
Eylward Av Pr Fr
Rodriguez Vg Av
Gorneault Av Pr Av
Wood Av Av
Evans Av Pr Av
Mathis Fr
Wilson Av Av
Morrissey Av
Brown Fr
Pride* Fr Fr Fr
Haynes* Av Av Av
Budde Vg Av
Pavkovich Av Av Fr Av Fr Av
Aybar# Vg Av Fr Av
Statia# Vg Vg
Smith Vg Fr
Collins Fr
Toussaint Fr Fr
Player Spotlight - Reggie Willits
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .274 .372 .338 147 456 78 125 22 2 1 35 70 83 25 10
Mean .294 .396 .368 160 503 99 148 27 2 2 47 85 84 34 9
Pessimistic (15%) .249 .338 .287 93 289 42 72 11 0 0 17 39 57 12 8
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: John Cangelosi, Jerry Mumphrey
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Francisco Rodriguez 26 2.55 5 1 69 0 74.0 56 21 5 30 98
Scot Shields 32 3.39 9 5 76 0 85.0 74 32 8 32 83
Jered Weaver 25 3.56 13 8 31 31 187.0 183 74 21 40 152
Kelvim Escobar 32 3.56 16 9 30 30 197.0 193 78 15 57 152
John Lackey 29 3.60 15 9 33 33 220.0 219 88 18 60 180
Justin Speier 34 3.66 3 2 62 0 59.0 54 24 8 20 52
Buzz Oliver* 37 3.90 2 2 52 0 67.0 66 29 8 20 50
Jason Bulger 29 4.02 4 3 51 0 56.0 52 25 6 26 62
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.21 -----------------------------------------------
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.57 -----------------------------------------------
Matt Hensley 29 4.70 1 1 11 1 23.0 24 12 2 6 16
Ervin Santana 25 4.71 12 13 33 32 193.0 204 101 25 65 145
Joe Saunders* 27 4.73 11 12 32 32 192.0 210 101 25 65 133
Nicholas Adenhart 21 4.77 9 11 28 28 168.0 187 89 15 67 93
Bartolo Colon 35 4.78 8 8 22 22 130.0 146 69 18 32 87
Dustin Moseley 26 5.02 6 7 34 17 113.0 127 63 15 40 68
Chris Bootcheck 29 5.04 3 3 58 0 75.0 83 42 10 31 52
Greg Jones 31 5.37 3 4 46 0 57.0 65 34 10 20 38
Jonathon Rouwenhorst* 28 5.54 6 9 41 13 112.0 130 69 18 42 62
Jose Arredondo 24 5.57 3 4 67 0 76.0 84 47 14 36 57
Jeff Kennard 26 5.58 4 7 50 0 79.0 89 49 11 39 50
Richard Thompson 23 5.67 3 6 51 0 81.0 89 51 19 31 68
Steven Shell 25 5.77 5 10 33 19 131.0 156 84 26 43 82
Nick Green 23 5.80 7 13 29 29 163.0 199 105 40 45 93
Pedro Liriano 27 6.19 4 9 28 19 112.0 138 77 20 46 53
Kasey Olenberger 30 6.21 6 10 28 23 145.0 175 100 32 53 82
Henry Bonilla 29 6.21 5 10 32 19 129.0 159 89 25 54 60
Stephen Marek 24 6.35 6 13 27 27 146.0 179 103 31 57 78
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - John Lackey
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.94 18 7 34 34 233 214 76 15 57 204
Mean 3.60 15 9 33 33 220 219 88 18 60 180
Pessimistic (15%) 4.32 11 10 28 28 177 190 85 17 61 137
Top Near-Age Comps: Roy Oswalt, Dizzy Trout
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 19, 2007 at 12:21 AM | 46 comment(s)
Related News: LA Angels, ZIPS
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Also, the Angels' only left-handed pitchers are Buzz Oliver, Joe Saunders and some 28-year-old minor league veteran who's unlikely to be on the 40-man roster? That's pretty odd.
When you say "pessimistic" about Willits, you ain't kidding. I can imagine it though, although, as you say, only 15% likely.
If Colon can manage that, whoever signs him will probably be pretty satisfied.
Reggie Jackson
Reggie Sanders
Reggie Bush
Reggie Miller
Reggie Theus
Reggie Roby
Admittedly, those are all sports figures....
He also forgot Reginald van Gleason III.
Reggie Cleveland?
To Reginald Martinez Jackson, "No wonder you're so messed up. You've got a white first name, a Spanish middle name, and a black last name."
Obviously, at one time, Reggie was considered a white name. I wonder if Reggie Jackson is partly responsible for it becoming popular with African Americans. Some of the athletes mentioned above pre-date Reggie's playing days, so I guess not...
To Reginald Martinez Jackson, "No wonder you're so messed up. You've got a white first name, a Spanish middle name, and a black last name."
I love that. Reggie's response to that was, "Look at me, arguing with a man who can't read or write." To which Rivers responded, "Maybe you should do less reading and writing and more hitting." I'm paraphrasing here but Mickey Rivers was a sharp wit.
Reggie Perrin?
If they trade for Cabrera they'll be trading for a DH. He can't play third, his only viable defensive spot is 1B, and Kotchman has that spot. Cabrera would probably fight being used as a DH anyway - its a serious hit on a player's free agent value. Then we'd also have to trade 3 other players.
I'm neutral on a Cabrera acquisition. Yes, he's a great hitter, but the cost is high and he has his liabilities too.
I'd like to see a contract swap of Matthews Jr. for Scott Rolen, followed by a signing of Torii Hunter, but that's not going to happen - not only did they give Gm jr all that money they gave him a no-trade clause.
With the unbalanced schedule, the Angels look better than they are, as the AL West is the weak division of the stronger league. Nonetheless, the Cards of 06 demonstrate that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than a shark in an ocean.
before that date, he hit .333/.411/.557. after missing 9 days, he came back, and for the rest of the season, hit .263/.338/.390.
i'll take the over on his 2008 projection.
The West has had the best record of any division in the AL for 8 consecutive years.
Funny, now that I look at it, they were tops in slugging, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in homers in 2000, yet 8th in runs scored. Almost the complete opposite of what they've done for the last couple years. Their pitching was awful, though.
They were 4th in runs per game last year (ahead of Cleveland) and 5th in runs allowed, despite way more injuries in the lineup than the rotation.
Looking this over, though, I wonder if the Angels will feel pressure to make a trade for Cabrera and what it would take to do it.
You rang!
Projection systems seem to regress batting average too much for high average hitters. I think .315 is much more likely for Kendrick than .295. A .348/.450 hitter is much better than a .328/.430.
I'm not so sure that this is true. I looked at CHONE 2007 forecasts and found the 10 hitters projected to hit for the highest average. I compared their actual averages with their forecast averages.
Hitter______ CHONE Actl Delta ResultPujols,Albert .323 .327 +.004 Higher
Guerrero,Vlad .321 .324 +.003 Higher
Cabrera,Migue .320 .320 +.000 Even
Mauer,Joe____ .318 .293 -.025 Lower
Atkins,Garret .312 .301 -.011 Lower
Cano,Robinson .312 .306 -.006 Lower
Mccann,Brian_ .312 .270 -.042 Lower
Suzuki,Ichiro .311 .351 +.040 Higher
Crawford,Carl .309 .315 +.006 Higher
Jeter,Derek__ .309 .322 +.013 Higher
AVERAGE______ .315 .313 -.002
Other than two big outliers either way (McCann and Ichiro), everyone else was in a pretty tight band. As you'd expect with an unbiased estimator, 5 had higher averages than forecast, 4 had lower, and one was dead on.
Wow!
Jeter is so good at getting basehits. Whistful sigh.
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