BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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1. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:34 AM (#2615433)

I would like for Loney to be freed as well so that I can get maximum enjoyment out of Colitis's bumbling. That Dodgers-Giants rivalry is gonna be fierce as they duke it out for fourth place through the aughts and beyond.

2. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:50 AM (#2615448)

Before anyone says anything, I agree that Loney will beat the projection.

3. npurcell Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:51 AM (#2615449)

Some of these seem conservative for the younger players.

4. npurcell Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:53 AM (#2615451)

Also, I think Furcal will have a bounce back year. He was held back by that ankle injury and compounded further with a shoulder injury.

It's also his contract year, so yeah.

Interesting that Martin's BA/SLG/ISOd projections are virtually identical from 2007 to 2008. ZIPS must not really be a believer in his power spike.

5. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:54 AM (#2615452)

Some of these seem conservative for the younger players.

That's what a lot of Diamondbacks fans were saying last offseason.

6. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:56 AM (#2615453)

ZIPS must not really be a believer in his power spike.

It's called the "LoDuca Power Spike" rule. OK, OK, so I'm a Martin believer.

7. npurcell Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:58 AM (#2615454)

That's what a lot of Diamondbacks fans were saying last offseason.

True, but Loney, Martin, Kemp and Billingsley all blew away their ZIPs projections from 2007. Ethier was the only one that got significant playing time and was right around the ZIPs projections.

8. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:59 AM (#2615455)

What happened to Delwyn Young? He's gone Hee Seop Choi.

9. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:05 AM (#2615463)

True, but Loney, Martin, Kemp and Billingsley all blew away their ZIPs projections from 2007.

So they can only get better, you say? Sounds like a Mets fan's argument about why Reyes was going to win the NL MVP in 2007, given his 2006 season... Incidentally, I believe both Quentin and Drew blew away their ZIPS projections in 2006 once they got called up. I blame ZIPS, of course.

10. npurcell Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:11 AM (#2615467)

So they can only get better, you say?

No I never said that. Looking at it closer, the only real qualms I have are Martin's slg projections and Billingsley's era projection.

Everything else looks about right. Alot more conservative than Bill James' projections but not as low as CHONE's so far.

11. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:12 AM (#2615469)

Alot more conservative than Bill James' projections

Bill J's projections seem to love the young players a little much.

12. BeanoCook Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:14 AM (#2615472)

What happened to Martin?

13. OCF Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:30 AM (#2615478)

Like many catchers, it appears Martin could use more rest than he's getting in order to avoid crashing in September. Lieberthal is a free agent, and at his age you might want to consider the under on the projection above - although he was barely even used last year. Dan hasn't profiled anyone else worth looking at. So that is a Dodger need: backup catcher. (Remind me what they got for Dioner Navarro?)

14. Repoz

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:44 AM (#2615485)

Nomar's numbers are up to his retirement at the All-Star break, right?

15. Morally Excellent Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:45 AM (#2615487)

It takes something pretty special to hit .277 and still rank that low in ... whatever metric Dan uses to sort these.

16. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:51 AM (#2615493)

I think we're all in agreement that the youth should be given a shot. I don't get a lot of things Ned Colletti is doing. Apparently they've lost faith in Laroche for no apparent reason, on top of their many other issues that Dan documented well, and that the rest of us probably know all too well, whether we're Dodger fans or not (I'm not).

This is very unfortunate. So many wasted and misused resources.

17. Frisco Cali Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:52 AM (#2615495)

I love the current rumors that have Pierre moving to left. Who would be stupid enough to do that?
(Don't answer that question)

18. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:59 AM (#2615502)

I won't. It's obvious you know the answer already haha.

Seriously though, what's wrong with going into 2008 with an Ethier, Pierre, Kemp outfield? (It's obvious whats wrong with that, but there's nothing the Dodgers can really do about it)

19. akrasian Posted: November 15, 2007 at 07:14 AM (#2615510)

Seriously though, what's wrong with going into 2008 with an Ethier, Pierre, Kemp outfield? (It's obvious whats wrong with that, but there's nothing the Dodgers can really do about it)

Well, two separate issues. If that is the outfield, then Pierre should be in left. His offense is the same no matter where he plays, and since he has ok or above range still but a pathetic arm, he would play defensively best in left.

The problem is that Repko and Young should be rated above him, much less any free agent outfielders they sign.

20. NBarnes Posted: November 15, 2007 at 08:20 AM (#2615528)

I used to be a Dodgers fan, but in the wake of the farce that's been Coletti's work as replacement for the unfairly maligned and ungraciously ejected DePodesta, I am rooting for humiliation and failure to haunt them until such time as their management grows a clue. Or the McCourts sell, which seems more likely.

"Humiliations galore!"

21. Russ Posted: November 15, 2007 at 11:50 AM (#2615544)

Bill J's projections seem to love the young players a little much.

From a PR perspective, it's better to be aggressive in the young player predictions. If the young players DON'T meet the projections, you can almost always blame lack of playing time (because they'll usually get benched if they're really struggling). If the young player is beating the projection, they'll keep getting PT, reinforcing how smart you are.

The issue is that I'm guessing that Dan's predictions are really "mean" predictions and for for good, young players, the distribution of possible outcomes is probably positively skewed, i.e. there is a long right-hand tail of good things compared to a fairly short left hand tail of bad things that can happen. If he did median predictions, they would be even more conservative.

For older players, there's a lot more data, so their projection distribution is going to look much more symmetric and normally distributed.

22. fra paolo Posted: November 15, 2007 at 12:12 PM (#2615546)

Dan Evans did a wonderful job putting together a top-notch player development plan

Absolutely! And he was coping well with reducing payroll. McCourt treated him badly.

the unfairly maligned and ungraciously ejected DePodesta

Those who gain by the ungracious ejection often end up getting ungraciously ejected themselves.

Really, though, I don't think McCourt has a clue about whom he wants to run his team or to what end. He just looks for the latest fashion, like those nerdy kids who go to nightclubs instead of sitting in their garages doing hard work with baseball statistics.

23. John DiFool2 Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:30 PM (#2615610)

Nomar Garciaparra 3b 34 .268 .329 .384

As a Sox fan the decline of what used to be one of the game most exciting players greatly saddens me, along with the fact that he never got to share in the Sox's 2 World Series. Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.

24. AROM Posted: November 15, 2007 at 02:58 PM (#2615645)

My power projection for Kemp is about the same, but I think the upside of his power is the best on the team. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he explodes for a 35 homer season.

25. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2615649)

Those who gain by the ungracious ejection often end up getting ungraciously ejected themselves.

Unless DePo undermined Evans, this isn't fair to DePo.

26. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:03 PM (#2615655)

Wow, this is a better team than I realized.

27. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2615690)

Those who gain by the ungracious ejection often end up getting ungraciously ejected themselves.

Of course, Evans being packed off wasn't really DePo's fault.

The thing about DePodesta's stint is that while not everything worked out, like Jose Valentin as a stopgap 3rd baseman, his wrong moves never got in the way of the team's future.

All in all, DePodesta was given exactly one single offseason to implement a long-term plan.

28. aleskel

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2615697)

so ... does ZiPS project when Scott Proctor is going to need rotator cuff surgery? I have July 17 in my Joe Torre Bullpen Destruction pool

29. JPWF13

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 03:43 PM (#2615709)

Wow, this is a better team than I realized.

Yes, but the problem is that by all appearances Colitis doesn't realize it-
If the Twins and the Marlins play their hands correctly they can really re-tool this offseason at the Dodger's expense.

I can't remember where I read it, but allegedly someone in the Dodger's org. (Colitis himself?) wants Logan White out- if that happens and Colitis really is behind it, I think just about every thinking Dodgers fan may take a vacation from the team.

30. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 15, 2007 at 04:03 PM (#2615737)

Ned Colletti is bad for baseball.

31. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 15, 2007 at 04:07 PM (#2615742)

It takes something pretty special to hit .277 and still rank that low in ... whatever metric Dan uses to sort these.

I think it is runs created per game.

32. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:04 PM (#2615939)

I ain't turning over the closer job to some Marinara Rivera guy, get me Jeff Shaw's phone number!"

Actually, the closer position was turned over to a rookie during Colletti's reign. Granted that was more Little's decision than Colletti's. But he did sign Saito.

Also, wow. Did Loney run over ZIPS' dog or something?

33. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2615966)

Alot more conservative than Bill James' projections

Bill J's projections seem to love the young players a little much.

I was just talking to Levski about this the other day in the context of his Mark Reynolds projection

.294/.369/.537 .905 OPS YOWZA

Some of James other projections for Young Dodgers

Kemp .322/.365/.508 .873 OPS
Ethier .304/.371/.477 .847 OPS
Martin .292/.379/.456 .835 OPS
Laroche .275/.367/.458 .825 OPS
Loney .302/.359/.465 .823 OPS

Interesting that he has Loney doing worse in terms of OPS than the other 4. Loney's is the only projection about on par with Dan's...the rest of course much more optimistic.

all I can say is................GO DAN!!

34. xeifrank Posted: November 15, 2007 at 06:45 PM (#2616020)

The Dodgers have a player at every position either at or above the league average marker except for of course Juan Pierre. An outfield of Ethier/Free Agent/Kemp (Pierre to bench) could fix this. The Dodgers also have five starting pitchers above the league average marker, with 3 or 4 well above it and a 6th right below the marker. They also have 4, (5 if you count Hull) relief pitchers above the league average marker. That's not bad. The questions for this team will be.

1. Can they get Pierre out of the lineup and use both Kemp and Ethier? (FA-A.Jones/T.Hunter?)
2. Will LaRoche get a shot to start at 3B? If so, can he match these Zips numbers??
3. How healthy will the bottom part of the rotation be? (Schmidt and Guo)

vr, Xeifrank

35. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: November 15, 2007 at 07:00 PM (#2616042)

That pessimistic projection for Kemp seems a bit high, no? Last year the guy hit .442 when not striking out (even higher than Ryan Howard!), when in the minors he hit .390 when hitting the ball. Your pessimistic projection does have him down at .369 ... the league hit .330 when not K'ing last year. If he doesn't cut his strikeouts, I think it will be hard for him to clear a .300 average in that ballpark.

36. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 15, 2007 at 07:11 PM (#2616056)

Also, wow. Did Loney run over ZIPS' dog or something?

Loney was actually quite bad in Las Vegas this year - Chone and I both have that stint translated as a sub-.600 OPS. His 2005 Jacksonville numbers also left much to be desired (translation of 250/316/366).

37. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2617454)

Yes, the A's would be happy to trade Joe Blanton for Andy Laroche and friends and then unceremoniously ship Eric Chavez off to whoever finds themself the big loser in all this ARod/Lowell/MiggyCab third base hunting fun.

38. Walt Davis Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:45 PM (#2617575)

On Pierre: I'd say the chances the Dodgers cut bait this year are near zero -- too much money, too many years. Sure, it would make sense to bench him (sunk costs and all), but it's just not how it works in baseball really. It's not even clear that Colletti is unsatisfied, even if he is he probably thinks it was just a down year, and it's not like Torre hasn't put up with some dreck in CF the last few years. And in Colletti's "defense", that offense projects well enough that it can carry Pierre, especially in the #8 spot.

Still, this is a test for Colletti -- let's see how long it takes them to cut bait on Pierre. If anything happens this offseason, I suspect it will be something like Pierre and a boatload of money ($20 M?) to the Marlins for pretty much nothing.

39. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: November 16, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2617588)

I suspect it will be something like Pierre and a boatload of money ($20 M?) to the Marlins for pretty much nothing

I think I mentioned this in the Hunter to LAD thread (Rosenthal's pontification article), but the Dodgers might as well see if they can include Pierre in a package for Miguel Cabrera. Basically the Dodgers would have to send a bolus of cash to FLA to cover most of Pierre's contract, but that solves FLA's need for a centerfielder (sort of), and probably allows the Dodgers to retain Kemp. A package of LaRoche, Billingsley, Pierre and a lot of cash for Cabrera should get the deal done.

40. tl; dr (Voxter)

Posted: November 17, 2007 at 09:25 AM (#2618308)

Wow, I'd be intrigued to see Broxton's optimistic projection, if that's his regular one. He appears to be good at baseball.

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