I don't know who Alec Zumwalt is, but he's the name that always comes up when I am looking at the Leaders page on DMB, and click on a player who is not on the current active roster.

Ryan Braun's pessimistic projection still has him slugging over .500? Nice.

The Brewers are cutting loose Jenkins at just about the right time. He meant a lot to the team over the last decade, but it was the right thing to do.

Do you say that because Gabe Gross is a similarly valuable player who's cheaper? Because Jenkins projection is just a hair below average for left field and since it was a one year option there's no long term risk. He seems like a good choice for any team looking to plug a corner outfield hole this offseason, unless somebody gets nutty and offers him a 3 year deal or something.

Sheets's optimistic projection has him pitching just 175 innings? Not good.

Corey Hart rf 26 .289 .353 .518 158 546 93 158 36 7 25 85 49 112 22 9

And how many wisecracks from Primates about how he wears his sunglasses at night do you project?

And how many wisecracks from Primates about how he wears his sunglasses at night do you project?

Maybe that's why his defense is so lackluster?

I'll take the over on Weeks. What's the optimistic line, Dan?

Weeks has a very high optimistic projection - 278/394/501.

Weeks has a very high optimistic projection - 278/394/501.

Nah, that's just Rickie being Rickie.

So Sheets is going to give up between 16 and 17 HR, 26 and 28 BBs in 117 to 175 innings.

So Sheets is going to give up between 16 and 17 HR, 26 and 28 BBs in 117 to 175 innings.

Thanks.

The Braun projection looks spot-on to me given his BB/K rate.

Has there been a player more difficult to get a read on than Weeks? (with the bat) He dominated at D-2, was pushed quickly through the minor league system and never really got his feet under him, but had some success for his age. He has had a 3 year injury riddle MLB career to date, but has mixed in 2-3 brief stretches of utter dominance for a 2nd baseman.

I say his dramatic increase in plate disipline is a very good sign that will lead him to be a .275/.380/.480 man with 30 SBs. That is indeed top 5 at his position.

So Sheets is going to give up between 16 and 17 HR, 26 and 28 BBs in 117 to 175 innings.

That's only in those innings totals - the HR/9s are quite different.

The Braun projection looks spot-on to me given his BB/K rate.

I disagree. Braun was a player that could not strike out, no matter what in triple-A last year. Check it out. Braun strikes me as an incredibly determined hitter with visions of HOF dominance. 2007 Being his first taste of the Majors last year, I saw him totally committed to hitting the ball hard in every situation, no matter what. I do feel that this was due to Braun trying to show he belonged and in order to fit in he was driven to swing hard and "produce" slugging results every time.

This may sound odd, but I expect that Braun has become comfortable with idea he is going to stick in the majors and you will see a much more patient hitter from the one you saw in 2007. I'd not be surprised to see him to hit .305/.365/.575.

I think everyone is missing on Braun's ability to hit for average. He will never be a walk machine, but his line drive rate and fly ball rate are excellent for a young player. The Brewers tended to "rush" these younger players so projecting them is not easy, we tend to dismiss small samples of dominance, why are we not dismissing equally smaller samples of struggles?

Ouch, only 3 projected relievers above average. Ouch, only 3 projected relievers above average. 2 of which I completely disagree with, Wise and Turnbow. This pen is holding the Brewers back. Paying Cordero $40mm won't fix this either.

I disagree. Braun was a player that could not strike out, no matter what in triple-A last year. Check it out. Braun strikes me as an incredibly determined hitter with visions of HOF dominance.

And the year before, he struck out 100 times in the minors, and struck out 112 times while torching major league pitchers. He's not Adam Dunn, but there's no reason at this point to think he won't be a moderate strikeout guy.

A .360 BABIP is also pretty high for a guy with his line-drive rate of .163 and he's not super-fast.

A .360 BABIP is also pretty high for a guy with his line-drive rate of .163 and he's not super-fast.

I have 2 disagreements. 1st, Braun is fast. The Brewers time their players in the Spring and he finished 2nd on the team in the 60-yd dash. C Hart was 1st (Braun 2nd)and R Weeks was 3rd. Braun has excellent speed. However, I agree with you if you literally mean, "not-super fast".

Also, I have a qualm with .BABIP. I know that Voros McCracken did ground breaking research, but I believe that we are only at the beginning of understanding what BABIP really means or how to interpret it. Too often I think people trot out BABIP and scream "luck" and move on. I'm not saying you are doing this Dan, but I certainly think too many respected analysts hang their hats a bit too much on BABIP without focusing on the fact that BABIP “laws” work better a macro level, less so with individual players. Now we have a bit of a problem because the level of discourse on this subject has hit rock bottom as many scream “Luck” for just about any player that defies the “laws”.

I think we are at least a few more years away from understanding variance between BABIP from one year to the next, what exact variables contribute to variance between the peaks and valleys of a single player's BABIP and what qualifies as luck and what qualifies as skill.

Finally, I also have a qualm with Braun's .163 LD rate. I say that his true LD rate is closer to 20% and that too many of Braun's LDs were classified as FB (maybe you can help me understand what goes into this). Braun hits the highest line drives I have seen, if that makes sense.

This brings in mind, yet, another complaint I have with hit tracker in certain ballparks with high walls, over 10 feet--but I'll save that for another time.

Thanks for the work Dan.

Who is a better bet to be MUCH worse than his projection, Capuano or Bush? I'm guessing Capuano.

Ah, but don't forget, I'm not projecting Braun to have a .163 + .120 BABIP, but a .314 BABIP, which isn't that far from .200 + .120. I don't explicitly use LD% to determine BABIP - I've had to cobble together an estimator that goes from the basic stats and I might be getting to the point at which I have enough interesting findings to cobble together a SABR presentation.

And the year before, he struck out 100 times in the minors, and struck out 112 times while torching major league pitchers. He's not Adam Dunn, but there's no reason at this point to think he won't be a moderate strikeout guy.

I agree we have a guy that will strike out. But what consideration, if any, is given to players that get pushed quickly up levels, as the Brewers tend to do? I think it needs to be recognized that players that get moved around a lot, and quickly, are not likely to get as comfortable with their settings, their league as easily as a player that moves up one level per season.

I bet if you study HOF caliber players you will find that most of them got better in the Major Leagues, when compared to their minor league careers. I am suggesting that certain types of talents are not easily projectable pre age 25.

Also, I have a qualm with .BABIP. I know that Voros McCracken did ground breaking research, but I believe that we are only at the beginning of understanding what BABIP really means or how to interpret it. Too often I think people trot out BABIP and scream "luck" and move on. I'm not saying you are doing this Dan, but I certainly think too many respected analysts hang their hats a bit too much on BABIP without focusing on the fact that BABIP “laws” work better a macro level, less so with individual players. Now we have a bit of a problem because the level of discourse on this subject has hit rock bottom as many scream “Luck” for just about any player that defies the “laws”.

I think we are at least a few more years away from understanding variance between BABIP from one year to the next, what exact variables contribute to variance between the peaks and valleys of a single player's BABIP and what qualifies as luck and what qualifies as skill.

A great study that I saw at Shandler's Baseball HQ indicated that BABIP for hitters was the result of the following variables in the indicated proportion.

Randomness - 66.5 % (variation around the major league average of .295)
Hitter's line drive propensity - 16.0 %
Variation in team defense - 8.0 %
Hitter's power - 5.0 %
Hitter's speed - 3.0 %
Pitcher's skill - 1.5 %

If you want to argue that BABIP is not a measure of luck, knock yourself out, but once a hitter has an established BABIP any seasonal variance from this is more likely to be luck than anything else, unless there is a noticeable difference in his line-drive rate. And even this has to have some element of luck in it.

So Sheets is going to give up between 16 and 17 HR, 26 and 28 BBs in 117 to 175 innings.

That's only in those innings totals - the HR/9s are quite different.

I just thought it was a little funny that the counting stats stayed the same with the changing rates / IP totals. I'm sure that this isn't common for your projections, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Weeks after being recalled on 8/10: .273/.442/.553/.995, 15/15 in SB.

Of course, I said something similar about Bill Hall last year. Also, Weeks seemed to have a bunch of at bats where he just refused to swing the bat at the end of the year. I don't know if he's going to keep all the walks.

If you want to argue that BABIP is not a measure of luck, knock yourself out, but once a hitter has an established BABIP any seasonal variance from this is more likely to be luck than anything else, unless there is a noticeable difference in his line-drive rate. And even this has to have some element of luck in it.

Exactly my point. To label Braun's 2007 BABIP built on luck would be wrong, as we simply don't know for sure yet where his "baseline" will net out. Instead most people ignore all of the variables that are not controlled by "luck" (roughly 35% of the equation, a significant portion) and will always trot out luck when the not so trusty .300 BABIP mark is missed.

I predict that we will find that Braun's BABIP will exceed the .295 -.300 law by at least 10%. That is a big difference that few want to acknowledge exists.

I just thought it was a little funny that the counting stats stayed the same with the changing rates / IP totals. I'm sure that this isn't common for your projections, not that there's anything wrong with that.

It's actually not all that common as the variance in playing time isn't all that different from a lot of variance in rate stats. The same thing happens with PECOTA, too - just glancing randomly at Chris Carpenter yields between 16-18 home runs allowed from 10th to 90th percentiles.

Which starting pitcher do you guys think are the Brewers most likely to trade? Bush? Capuano? I don't doubt they'd like to hold onto Gallardo, Parra and Villanueva, probably Sheets as well, and Suppan just is pretty hard to move with that contract and sub-par 2007 performance.

And what would the Brewers want for one of Bush/Capuano? A catcher? Some reliever?

That should read as all that uncommon.

Bush is worth about a $8-10mm per year player. I'd expect to get a very good middle arm for him, or a corner OF.

I'd take Kelly Stoppach and a quality Indians middle arm for Bush or a combination of such.

I'd take Kelly Stoppach and a quality Indians middle arm for Bush or a combination of such.

Middle arm? Not that there's anything wrong with that. I also believe Shapiro would definitely make Kelly Stoppwatch available.

Bush is probably better off staying in the NL, and going to a team with solid defense. I can see the Dbacks being interested in him or Capuano. And Byrnes and Melvin know each other well already, having pulled off the Estrada for Davis swap last year...

Middle arm? Not that there's anything wrong with that. I also believe Shapiro would definitely make Kelly Stoppwatch available.

Bush is probably better off staying in the NL, and going to a team with solid defense. I can see the Dbacks being interested in him or Capuano. And Byrnes and Melvin know each other well already, having pulled off the Estrada for Davis swap last year...

Count me as sick and tired of, "he would be good in the NL" tripe. Every AL team has a 4th and 5th starter and most could find a use for Bush. Bush already played a season in the AL, he did fine, better than last year.

This wasn't a knock against Bush, it's just a statement that any pitcher is better off staying in, or going to, the NL. He does need a team with solid defense though, for sure. I see Bush will be entering his first year of arbitration, and he made 375K last year. He'll be under control through 2010. Definitely a guy who should be on quite a few teams' wish lists.

Btw, people using Mozilla should download the extensions from HardballTimes that allow you to search the HardballTimes and HardballTimes Players databases directly from your Mozilla search field. Totally awesome.

I'll take the over on Hardy. That seems like quite a regression for a 25 year old SS. Any chance the Brewers move Hart back to 3b and Braun to the OF? Or was Hart even worse?

I'll take the over on Hardy.

Me too.

Why is Bill Hall's RC so low with that batting line?

Why is Bill Hall's RC so low with that batting line?

A hair less than the two above him due to the SB.

Bush stays put until the Cordero situation is resolved. Dave might be tabbed the closer. No way does Melvin let Nedley give the job back to Turnbow. That would be incredibly dumb. By season's end Derrick was afraid of his own shadow.

No hyperbole. I had folks around the team tell me the lad was sweating at the thought of going into a game by the 4th inning. But Yost wanted him to "work through it". Check out his September numbers and tell me how that worked out.

And don't give me that sample size bullsh#t. He stunk pretty much the last 10 weeks. And did so in a very ugly way.

Bush as closer? Seriously? Melvin loves hard throwers, in addition, Bush's HR rate is too high to close.

I think Bush can bounce back, either as a starter or reliever/closer. His HR rate is high now, but I believe he'd be a different pitcher if he only has to go one IP. His biggest problem as a starter was the third time through the lineup. He'd sail through the first 4 or 5 and then hit a wall. I'd hang on to him. He's better than Vargas, certainly; Villanueva and Parra (and Sheets) are no sure things; and his salary is still reasonable. As for Capuano, check his career platoon splits, and it says LOOGY. That's not an insult. Why not use him in a role in which he'd succeed? I think they can cobble together a good bullpen without having to waste a ton of money on Cordero.

I think they can cobble together a good bullpen without having to waste a ton of money on Cordero.

I sure hope so. I used to say/think that the mark of a good GM was a good bulpen. Seems that with near 50% turnover from year to year, any GM, regardless of market size/budget, can put a quality pen together without blowing the bank.

Seems that with near 50% turnover from year to year, any GM, regardless of market size/budget, can put a quality pen together without blowing the bank.

Your manager has to play along, though. And your pitching coach. You have to have guys who can recognize who is pitching well, sort out sensible roles, and be creative and flexible. And it really helps to have a totally reliable guy or two (like Cordero, actually) along for the ride. Building a good pen is probably more of a manager's trait than a GM's, especially as the high variability of relief pitchers make finding the good ones in-season as they come to you so important.

I'd like to request a projection for Mark DiFelice. And so I am; thank you.