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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, November 12, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers look again like they'll be a pretty good team. The biggest concern I think is that the team needs to sort out who plays where - the defense looks a little like one of those small picture puzzles which has 15 sliding squares and room for 16 but you have to manipulate them into the proper order to see the sailboat or the puppy dog or Linus Pauling. Probably their best SS option remains their centerfielder, their best 2B option after the centerfielder is probably at short, their 2B probably shouldn't be at second but should be somewhere, and their 3B should probably be in left. How do you get the defense lined ideally without annoying half the lineup over the winter? Having Gallardo, Braun, and Sheets for a full-season and a fully-healthy Weeks will help the Brewers from falling to the Plexiglass Principle, but it's hard to count on Sheets for a full season. The Brewers are cutting loose Jenkins at just about the right time. He meant a lot to the team over the last decade, but it was the right thing to do.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Prince Fielder* 1b 24 .282 .380 .571 162 585 102 165 35 1 44 106 83 123 4 2
Corey Hart rf 26 .289 .353 .518 158 546 93 158 36 7 25 85 49 112 22 9
Ryan Braun 3b 24 .294 .332 .554 143 538 85 158 33 4 33 93 30 113 15 7
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .270 .353 .469 ------------------------------------------
Rickie Weeks 2b 25 .254 .363 .422 129 465 92 118 21 6 15 47 65 117 23 4
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .269 .345 .450 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .269 .342 .451 ------------------------------------------
Gabe Gross* rf 28 .264 .358 .426 137 333 52 88 21 3 9 40 47 77 5 1
Joe Dillon 3b 32 .280 .338 .449 118 343 50 96 21 2 11 46 30 60 3 0
Bill Hall cf 28 .270 .336 .475 146 503 77 136 37 3 20 69 50 135 8 6
Geoff Jenkins* lf 33 .259 .339 .449 117 390 48 101 24 1 16 55 36 108 1 0
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .266 .339 .442 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .264 .331 .419 ------------------------------------------
Kevin Mench lf 30 .261 .315 .424 118 394 46 103 21 2 13 50 28 68 2 1
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .268 .331 .408 ------------------------------------------
Laynce Nix* cf 27 .247 .299 .447 109 360 36 89 17 2 17 59 23 108 4 1
J.J. Hardy ss 25 .262 .318 .421 120 435 59 114 22 1 15 54 36 55 1 2
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .266 .324 .401 ------------------------------------------
Andy Abad* 1b 35 .256 .320 .402 73 234 28 60 10 0 8 32 20 35 1 1
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .253 .317 .398 ------------------------------------------
Tony Graffanino 2b 36 .255 .336 .366 75 235 32 60 12 1 4 24 25 61 1 1
Cole Gillespie lf 24 .241 .337 .382 140 474 55 114 25 3 12 57 62 109 11 10
Johnny Estrada# c 32 .266 .320 .373 110 394 34 105 21 0 7 47 30 44 0 0
Damian Miller c 38 .245 .329 .345 76 249 25 61 16 0 3 24 30 62 0 0
Vinny Rottino c 28 .261 .321 .360 132 444 49 116 19 2 7 41 35 72 8 6
Brad Nelson* 1b 25 .233 .309 .381 144 486 56 113 25 1 15 63 51 120 8 5
Anthony Gwynn* cf 25 .260 .325 .328 139 439 61 114 16 4 2 33 41 77 17 8
Eric Munson* c 30 .224 .302 .350 89 277 30 62 14 0 7 31 30 57 1 1
Callix Crabbe# 2b 25 .239 .326 .330 146 497 59 119 22 4 5 36 61 80 15 11
Drew Anderson* lf 27 .254 .301 .356 134 469 61 119 27 3 5 42 29 102 14 8
Angel Salome c 22 .245 .283 .361 105 388 36 95 24 0 7 55 21 62 3 1
Michael Rivera c 31 .209 .288 .355 91 301 22 63 11 0 11 39 30 62 3 2
Craig Counsell* ss 37 .232 .307 .315 101 314 40 73 13 2 3 22 30 48 9 3
Matthew Gamel* 3b 22 .224 .285 .348 143 509 47 114 25 4 10 50 42 114 8 6
Ozzie Chavez# ss 24 .241 .301 .308 120 370 31 89 15 2 2 30 32 60 4 6
Chris Barnwell ss 29 .227 .286 .311 130 418 45 95 18 1 5 28 27 71 9 3
Hernan Iribarren* 2b 24 .254 .301 .316 132 484 48 123 14 8 0 37 33 107 13 14
Charles Thomas* cf 29 .214 .281 .302 86 262 29 56 9 1 4 21 22 56 4 2
Michael Brantley* lf 21 .229 .300 .272 121 401 43 92 12 1 1 33 40 58 19 10
Lorenzo Cain rf 22 .222 .278 .288 142 528 56 117 22 2 3 35 33 126 17 10
Alcides Escobar ss 21 .251 .275 .296 118 459 47 115 10 4 1 37 13 71 19 13
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Fielder* Fr
Hart Av Fr Av
Braun Pr
Weeks Fr
Gross* Av Fr Av
Dillon Av Pr Fr Av
Hall Av Av Av Fr
Jenkins* Av Av
Mench Av Fr
Nix* Vg Av Vg
Hardy Fr
Abad* Fr Fr
Graffanino Vg Av Vg Fr
Gillespie Av
Estrada# Fr
Miller Av
Rottino Fr Pr Pr Pr
Nelson* Av Pr Fr
Gwynn* Vg Av Vg
Munson* Fr Av
Crabbe# Av Av Av Av
Anderson* Av Pr Av
Salome Av
Rivera Pr Av Pr
Counsell* Vg Vg Vg
Gamel* Fr
Chavez# Fr Av Fr
Barnwell Av Av Fr
Iribarren* Fr Av
Thomas* Av Pr Av
Brantley* Av Vg Fr
Cain Vg Vg
Escobar Av
Player Spotlight - Ryan Braun
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .317 .377 .632 152 574 105 182 40 6 43 124 54 107 21 6
Mean .294 .332 .554 143 538 85 158 33 4 33 93 30 113 15 7
Pessimistic (15%) .274 .318 .505 114 430 59 118 23 2 24 62 28 97 9 6
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ken Keltner, Les Bell
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Francisco Cordero 33 3.04 5 2 71 0 71.0 59 24 5 27 86
Yovani Gallardo 22 3.66 14 10 33 31 192.0 181 78 17 63 169
Ben Sheets 29 3.72 11 7 23 23 145.0 143 60 17 27 128
Matt Wise 32 4.00 4 3 50 0 54.0 53 24 6 18 42
Derrick Turnbow 30 4.08 5 5 71 0 64.0 54 29 6 38 71
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.15 -----------------------------------------------
Brian Shouse* 39 4.21 2 1 67 0 47.0 48 22 4 18 31
Scott Linebrink 31 4.24 5 5 70 0 70.0 71 33 10 24 57
Manny Parra* 25 4.31 7 6 23 18 119.0 125 57 10 42 84
Steve Bray 27 4.33 4 4 47 2 79.0 81 38 11 23 64
Carlos Villanueva 24 4.46 8 9 38 12 111.0 110 55 16 43 89
Chris Capuano* 29 4.48 12 12 33 31 195.0 207 97 25 52 154
Greg Aquino 30 4.50 2 2 50 0 54.0 54 27 8 22 52
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.55 -----------------------------------------------
David Bush 28 4.64 10 12 33 31 192.0 210 99 27 44 134
Jeff Suppan 33 4.76 10 12 31 31 187.0 213 99 23 66 111
Ray King* 34 4.85 2 2 65 0 39.0 43 21 5 20 24
Seth McClung 27 4.97 7 10 54 11 114.0 112 63 16 63 95
Claudio Vargas 30 4.99 8 11 29 25 146.0 159 81 23 57 113
Mitch Stetter* 27 5.00 3 4 50 0 45.0 47 25 7 17 34
Mariano Salas 27 5.48 1 3 55 0 64.0 70 39 11 28 46
Tim Dillard 24 5.49 5 10 26 16 118.0 144 72 18 35 52
Zach Jackson* 25 5.55 7 14 29 28 167.0 201 103 23 61 92
Vince Perkins 26 5.80 4 8 26 9 76.0 86 49 11 45 53
Adam Pettyjohn* 31 5.97 6 13 22 17 110.0 128 73 25 34 76
Jeff Housman* 26 6.08 4 8 27 10 77.0 87 52 14 43 53
R.A. Dickey 33 6.26 6 13 28 21 148.0 178 103 31 65 75
Alec Zumwalt 27 6.27 1 4 46 0 66.0 76 46 14 29 48
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Ben Sheets
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.93 15 6 27 27 175 155 57 16 26 166
Mean 3.72 11 7 23 23 145 143 60 17 27 125
Pessimistic (15%) 4.62 7 8 19 19 117 126 60 17 28 95
Top Near-Age Comps: Bret Saberhagen, Scott Sanderson
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 12, 2007 at 11:25 AM | 42 comment(s)
Related News: Milwaukee, ZIPS
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Do you say that because Gabe Gross is a similarly valuable player who's cheaper? Because Jenkins projection is just a hair below average for left field and since it was a one year option there's no long term risk. He seems like a good choice for any team looking to plug a corner outfield hole this offseason, unless somebody gets nutty and offers him a 3 year deal or something.
And how many wisecracks from Primates about how he wears his sunglasses at night do you project?
Maybe that's why his defense is so lackluster?
Nah, that's just Rickie being Rickie.
Thanks.
I say his dramatic increase in plate disipline is a very good sign that will lead him to be a .275/.380/.480 man with 30 SBs. That is indeed top 5 at his position.
That's only in those innings totals - the HR/9s are quite different.
I disagree. Braun was a player that could not strike out, no matter what in triple-A last year. Check it out. Braun strikes me as an incredibly determined hitter with visions of HOF dominance. 2007 Being his first taste of the Majors last year, I saw him totally committed to hitting the ball hard in every situation, no matter what. I do feel that this was due to Braun trying to show he belonged and in order to fit in he was driven to swing hard and "produce" slugging results every time.
This may sound odd, but I expect that Braun has become comfortable with idea he is going to stick in the majors and you will see a much more patient hitter from the one you saw in 2007. I'd not be surprised to see him to hit .305/.365/.575.
I think everyone is missing on Braun's ability to hit for average. He will never be a walk machine, but his line drive rate and fly ball rate are excellent for a young player. The Brewers tended to "rush" these younger players so projecting them is not easy, we tend to dismiss small samples of dominance, why are we not dismissing equally smaller samples of struggles?
I disagree. Braun was a player that could not strike out, no matter what in triple-A last year. Check it out. Braun strikes me as an incredibly determined hitter with visions of HOF dominance.
And the year before, he struck out 100 times in the minors, and struck out 112 times while torching major league pitchers. He's not Adam Dunn, but there's no reason at this point to think he won't be a moderate strikeout guy.
A .360 BABIP is also pretty high for a guy with his line-drive rate of .163 and he's not super-fast.
I have 2 disagreements. 1st, Braun is fast. The Brewers time their players in the Spring and he finished 2nd on the team in the 60-yd dash. C Hart was 1st (Braun 2nd)and R Weeks was 3rd. Braun has excellent speed. However, I agree with you if you literally mean, "not-super fast".
Also, I have a qualm with .BABIP. I know that Voros McCracken did ground breaking research, but I believe that we are only at the beginning of understanding what BABIP really means or how to interpret it. Too often I think people trot out BABIP and scream "luck" and move on. I'm not saying you are doing this Dan, but I certainly think too many respected analysts hang their hats a bit too much on BABIP without focusing on the fact that BABIP “laws” work better a macro level, less so with individual players. Now we have a bit of a problem because the level of discourse on this subject has hit rock bottom as many scream “Luck” for just about any player that defies the “laws”.
I think we are at least a few more years away from understanding variance between BABIP from one year to the next, what exact variables contribute to variance between the peaks and valleys of a single player's BABIP and what qualifies as luck and what qualifies as skill.
Finally, I also have a qualm with Braun's .163 LD rate. I say that his true LD rate is closer to 20% and that too many of Braun's LDs were classified as FB (maybe you can help me understand what goes into this). Braun hits the highest line drives I have seen, if that makes sense.
This brings in mind, yet, another complaint I have with hit tracker in certain ballparks with high walls, over 10 feet--but I'll save that for another time.
Thanks for the work Dan.
I agree we have a guy that will strike out. But what consideration, if any, is given to players that get pushed quickly up levels, as the Brewers tend to do? I think it needs to be recognized that players that get moved around a lot, and quickly, are not likely to get as comfortable with their settings, their league as easily as a player that moves up one level per season.
I bet if you study HOF caliber players you will find that most of them got better in the Major Leagues, when compared to their minor league careers. I am suggesting that certain types of talents are not easily projectable pre age 25.
I think we are at least a few more years away from understanding variance between BABIP from one year to the next, what exact variables contribute to variance between the peaks and valleys of a single player's BABIP and what qualifies as luck and what qualifies as skill.
A great study that I saw at Shandler's Baseball HQ indicated that BABIP for hitters was the result of the following variables in the indicated proportion.
Randomness - 66.5 % (variation around the major league average of .295)
Hitter's line drive propensity - 16.0 %
Variation in team defense - 8.0 %
Hitter's power - 5.0 %
Hitter's speed - 3.0 %
Pitcher's skill - 1.5 %
If you want to argue that BABIP is not a measure of luck, knock yourself out, but once a hitter has an established BABIP any seasonal variance from this is more likely to be luck than anything else, unless there is a noticeable difference in his line-drive rate. And even this has to have some element of luck in it.
I just thought it was a little funny that the counting stats stayed the same with the changing rates / IP totals. I'm sure that this isn't common for your projections, not that there's anything wrong with that.
Of course, I said something similar about Bill Hall last year. Also, Weeks seemed to have a bunch of at bats where he just refused to swing the bat at the end of the year. I don't know if he's going to keep all the walks.
Exactly my point. To label Braun's 2007 BABIP built on luck would be wrong, as we simply don't know for sure yet where his "baseline" will net out. Instead most people ignore all of the variables that are not controlled by "luck" (roughly 35% of the equation, a significant portion) and will always trot out luck when the not so trusty .300 BABIP mark is missed.
I predict that we will find that Braun's BABIP will exceed the .295 -.300 law by at least 10%. That is a big difference that few want to acknowledge exists.
I just thought it was a little funny that the counting stats stayed the same with the changing rates / IP totals. I'm sure that this isn't common for your projections, not that there's anything wrong with that.
It's actually not all that common as the variance in playing time isn't all that different from a lot of variance in rate stats. The same thing happens with PECOTA, too - just glancing randomly at Chris Carpenter yields between 16-18 home runs allowed from 10th to 90th percentiles.
And what would the Brewers want for one of Bush/Capuano? A catcher? Some reliever?
Middle arm? Not that there's anything wrong with that. I also believe Shapiro would definitely make Kelly Stoppwatch available.
Bush is probably better off staying in the NL, and going to a team with solid defense. I can see the Dbacks being interested in him or Capuano. And Byrnes and Melvin know each other well already, having pulled off the Estrada for Davis swap last year...
Count me as sick and tired of, "he would be good in the NL" tripe. Every AL team has a 4th and 5th starter and most could find a use for Bush. Bush already played a season in the AL, he did fine, better than last year.
Btw, people using Mozilla should download the extensions from HardballTimes that allow you to search the HardballTimes and HardballTimes Players databases directly from your Mozilla search field. Totally awesome.
Me too.
Why is Bill Hall's RC so low with that batting line?
A hair less than the two above him due to the SB.
No hyperbole. I had folks around the team tell me the lad was sweating at the thought of going into a game by the 4th inning. But Yost wanted him to "work through it". Check out his September numbers and tell me how that worked out.
And don't give me that sample size bullsh#t. He stunk pretty much the last 10 weeks. And did so in a very ugly way.
I sure hope so. I used to say/think that the mark of a good GM was a good bulpen. Seems that with near 50% turnover from year to year, any GM, regardless of market size/budget, can put a quality pen together without blowing the bank.
Your manager has to play along, though. And your pitching coach. You have to have guys who can recognize who is pitching well, sort out sensible roles, and be creative and flexible. And it really helps to have a totally reliable guy or two (like Cordero, actually) along for the ride. Building a good pen is probably more of a manager's trait than a GM's, especially as the high variability of relief pitchers make finding the good ones in-season as they come to you so important.
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