2008 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins
About 20 years ago (geez, I feel old), in one of the Elias Baseball Analysts, they did a study on which types of teams are most likely show big improvement and they found that teams with glaring weaknesses and some strengths improved more and more quickly than teams that were just generally mediocre all-round. I think the Twins are a good example of the former team. 2B, 3B, LF, and to an extent, DH, were so awful offensively for the Twins that the team will substantially improve if they just could find some players that aren't truly awful there.
Obviously, the Twins would miss Santana, but if they're not going to re-sign him, they could really pick up some offensive value if they chose to do so. Just upgrading Punto at 3rd to a player 15 runs better than replacement is worth 4 wins. The team could easily pick up another 2 wins at each of the other 3 positions with non-horrible players and if they do all this, they've already replaced Hunter's value and are starting to chip a little off the Santana loss. Liriano, Baker, Garza, and Slowey combined for only 49 starts and with a little fortune on the injury front, they could combine for 120 or more in 2008 - standing pat here is arguably as valuable as acquiring two starting pitchers. Now, all this might very well not happen, Liriano could have a setback, Nick Punto isn't exiled so Gardenhire lets him be the frontrunner at 2B, and so on and so forth. But there's a realistic scenario out there that has the Twins winning 92 games.
One thing I can tell you is that any help the Twins get offensively in 2008 won't be through the farm system, so the Twins really need to be aggressive at picking up players on the fringe, especially on waivers and the minor league free agent roles. No, there's nobody out there that will do what Carlos Pena did this year after a minor league invite, but the Twins will upgrade in a lot of players if they just find someone better than Geronimo Pena.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Joe Mauer* c 25 .315 .404 .458 141 524 80 165 33 3 12 78 78 58 8 2
Justin Morneau* 1b 27 .283 .355 .527 162 598 93 169 32 3 36 122 65 102 1 2
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .275 .354 .462 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .274 .345 .448 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .273 .342 .450 ------------------------------------------
Michael Cuddyer rf 29 .269 .352 .427 144 527 84 142 32 3 15 75 62 113 3 1
Torii Hunter cf 32 .276 .329 .462 141 532 80 147 34 1 21 84 38 92 16 7
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .271 .339 .440 ------------------------------------------
Jason Kubel* lf 26 .268 .332 .436 136 447 53 120 28 1 15 67 43 85 4 0
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .268 .332 .418 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .273 .333 .406 ------------------------------------------
Ken Harvey 1b 30 .274 .328 .406 56 212 22 58 10 0 6 27 14 38 1 1
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .271 .326 .399 ------------------------------------------
Jason Bartlett ss 28 .275 .341 .367 150 528 79 145 26 4 5 45 45 76 14 4
Mike Redmond c 37 .299 .342 .362 51 174 16 52 11 0 0 25 8 16 0 0
Brock Peterson 1b 24 .253 .318 .404 132 446 44 113 21 2 14 56 30 115 2 2
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .256 .317 .395 ------------------------------------------
Chris Basak ss 28 .242 .317 .393 105 326 43 79 19 3 8 36 32 77 10 4
Rashad Eldridge# cf 26 .249 .315 .381 108 349 50 87 21 2 7 37 30 90 4 4
Erik Lis* lf 24 .249 .294 .399 144 511 39 127 34 2 13 68 30 113 2 1
Jason Tyner* lf 31 .280 .330 .325 127 421 59 118 15 2 0 27 27 43 7 3
Garrett Jones* lf 27 .235 .289 .401 141 494 51 116 30 2 16 66 35 111 2 2
Brian Buscher* 3b 27 .251 .309 .361 139 463 43 116 22 1 9 50 35 76 2 3
Matt Tolbert# 2b 26 .255 .306 .363 130 444 53 113 22 4 6 48 30 70 6 3
Darnell McDonald cf 29 .256 .310 .357 126 454 50 116 24 2 6 42 34 110 12 7
Matt Macri 2b 26 .231 .302 .359 94 320 31 74 14 0 9 30 30 79 3 2
Rondell White dh 36 .250 .291 .370 54 184 20 46 7 0 5 22 7 28 0 0
Jose Morales c 25 .257 .311 .347 93 300 27 77 19 1 2 27 21 49 1 2
Tommy Watkins# ss 25 .246 .310 .344 116 349 36 86 16 0 6 36 30 66 8 3
Chris Heintz c 33 .261 .303 .337 90 303 27 79 14 0 3 31 16 61 0 0
Alexi Casilla# 2b 23 .260 .311 .319 146 524 66 136 19 3 2 32 36 76 27 11
Glenn Williams# 1b 30 .226 .303 .318 85 283 21 64 12 1 4 27 30 66 1 1
Nick Punto# 3b 30 .235 .311 .306 141 464 58 109 19 4 2 32 51 83 11 5
Alejandro Machado 2b 26 .245 .307 .304 122 375 47 92 12 2 2 29 30 52 12 5
Denard Span* cf 24 .257 .305 .326 149 533 62 137 18 5 3 48 35 97 15 10
Trevor Plouffe ss 22 .240 .290 .328 123 445 50 107 25 1 4 34 30 94 6 3
Matt Moses* 3b 23 .214 .263 .305 135 485 33 104 20 0 8 55 30 127 3 3
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Mauer* Vg
Morneau* Av
Cuddyer Av Fr
Hunter Av
Kubel* Av Av
Harvey Pr
Bartlett Av
Redmond Vg
Peterson Av
Basak Av Av Av Av
Eldridge# Vg Fr Vg
Lis* Av Av
Tyner* Vg Av Vg
Jones* Av Av Fr
Buscher* Av Fr
Tolbert# Av Av Fr
McDonald Fr Fr Fr
Macri Fr Fr Fr
White Fr
Morales Fr
Heintz Fr
Watkins# Fr Vg Pr Fr
Casilla# Fr Fr
Williams# Av Fr
Punto# Av Av Av Av
Machado Vg Av Vg Av
Span* Vg Vg Vg
Plouffe Fr
Moses* Pr Av
Player Spotlight - Justin Morneau
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .303 .382 .574 162 598 105 181 36 3 40 145 74 89 1 1
Mean .283 .355 .523 162 598 93 169 32 2 36 122 65 102 1 2
Pessimistic (15%) .257 .322 .445 124 456 60 117 21 1 21 72 44 86 0 2
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Kent Hrbek, Boog Powell
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Joe Nathan 33 2.19 6 1 68 0 70.0 53 17 4 20 82
Johan Santana* 29 3.21 18 8 34 34 230.0 200 82 29 47 236
Francisco Liriano* 24 3.42 13 7 33 25 166.0 148 63 18 46 178
Dennys Reyes* 31 3.45 3 2 53 1 47.0 46 18 2 21 37
Matt Guerrier 29 3.49 2 2 58 0 80.0 81 31 10 24 55
Pat Neshek 27 3.62 6 4 71 0 82.0 70 33 13 26 93
Juan Rincon 29 3.68 4 3 71 0 71.0 68 29 6 26 66
Jesse Crain 26 3.80 7 5 66 0 71.0 72 30 7 22 44
Kevin Slowey 24 3.93 11 8 30 29 181.0 195 79 22 23 113
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.04 -----------------------------------------------
Matt Garza 24 4.21 13 12 33 32 186.0 198 87 19 52 140
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.39 -----------------------------------------------
Yohan Pino 24 4.46 8 7 37 14 113.0 125 56 14 24 68
Scott Baker 26 4.50 11 12 31 30 186.0 205 93 24 39 127
Jeff Manship 23 4.64 9 10 24 23 132.0 147 68 18 25 90
Carlos Silva 29 4.83 11 13 32 30 190.0 228 102 26 29 81
Nick Blackburn 26 4.86 7 9 29 23 150.0 178 81 19 32 63
Anthony Swarzak 22 4.90 7 8 24 23 134.0 151 73 16 43 80
Boof Bonser 26 4.98 10 12 31 31 179.0 194 99 29 63 142
Oswaldo Sosa 22 5.01 8 11 29 29 160.0 194 89 13 53 71
Eduardo Morlan 22 5.01 4 6 42 9 97.0 105 54 17 30 78
Bobby Korecky 28 5.08 5 6 46 0 62.0 72 35 7 24 31
Jay Sawatski* 26 5.19 3 5 49 3 85.0 99 49 11 28 48
Brian Duensing* 25 5.23 8 11 29 29 167.0 200 97 25 41 83
Brian Bass 26 5.28 6 10 30 17 121.0 144 71 19 30 65
Carmen Cali* 29 5.38 3 5 56 1 72.0 82 43 10 33 41
Glen Perkins* 25 5.42 5 8 28 17 103.0 113 62 17 47 76
Julio DePaula 25 5.44 5 8 61 0 96.0 113 58 14 37 47
Brad Baker 27 5.76 3 6 43 6 86.0 103 55 14 26 50
Ryan Mullins* 24 5.77 6 10 29 28 167.0 207 107 28 47 93
Ricky Barrett* 27 5.82 3 5 40 3 65.0 69 42 11 45 55
Errol Simonitsch* 25 5.82 7 13 20 19 119.0 149 77 21 31 59
Jason Miller* 25 5.87 3 6 39 10 95.0 112 62 17 37 59
Kyle Waldrop 22 5.89 7 13 29 29 168.0 219 110 27 38 62
Jerome Williams 26 5.98 5 11 32 19 125.0 155 83 19 51 55
Dave Gassner* 29 6.22 5 11 20 19 107.0 136 74 21 30 45
Jose Mijares* 23 6.78 3 7 46 2 73.0 84 55 20 41 57
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Kevin Slowey
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.16 15 6 34 33 211 207 74 20 22 149
Mean 3.93 11 6 30 29 181 195 79 22 23 113
Pessimistic (15%) 4.90 7 9 25 24 147 173 80 24 24 86
Top Near-Age Comps: Ismael Valdes/z, Bret Saberhagen
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 07, 2007 at 10:28 AM |
42 comment(s)
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If the choice is Vg or Av I could go either way, but it sure doesn't smack of $75m.
Maybe if they bring Tony Batista in THIS year, he'll give them something positive.
The Twins' young pitching looks pretty damn good.
This is the trick, though, isn't it? They've got the pitching to trade, but will they do it? This is going to be a fun hot stove season!
I'm not even that sure if they have pitching to trade, at least not young good starters. Santana, Garza, Slowey, and Baker should all start. Silva will be gone. If Liriano comes back healthy, he'll take that spot. If not, or if anyone else is injured or struggles, Boof would fill in. If they trade one of those guys, Glen Perkins would likely be next up, I guess, but he's coming off of an injury, has thrown 40 innings above AA, and projects to a 5.4 ERA. I think he could use another year in the minors. If they trade any of the more established starters, the staff will be very thin on depth. Maybe that's a risk they should take, but when one of the top 6 starters is coming off of injury and a lot of the rest have taken turns at pitching poorly, I think it's perfectly reasonable to keep all 6 as necessary depth.
They've got other interesting young arms, but I don't know if any of them would get much in return for in trade just yet. Swarzak might be the one guy who is good enough and close enough that they could do something with. They could also get by with trading Nathan, I think, or Rincon. But other than that, I don't see them doing much to weaken their starting depth. That is especially true if they can't count on Santana being there past next season.
If I was GM, I'd trade Nathan soon for whatever bat(s) I could get, and install Rincon as the closer, and hit the free agent market pretty hard to fill in those other spots.....they've got $20+ million to spend, maybe $30 million if they free up Nathans money. Even with $20 million to spend (as Dan points out) they can put together 3 or 4 signings of guys in the $3 to $7 million range and upgrade from terrible to mediocre at a lot of spots.
At the other positions of need, I'll allocate up to $15mil to be spent thusly (the remainder goes to getting extensions done for Morneau and Cuddyer):
DH- Mike Lamb, $8mm for 2 years. Spots at 3B when needed, can probably handle an OF corner in a pinch, hits better than the majority of the returnees.
3B- Corey Koskie, $3mm for 1 year with a vesting option for $5mm at 400 PAs. His best years came in the dome, he plays enough defense to please TK's perpetual gaze, and he's coming very cheaply. Obviously, there's a risk of getting nothing, but that's why I want a DH who can also spot at 3B.
LF- Brad Wilkerson, $12mm for 2 years. I've barely heard his name so far, but Wilkerson has always been considered enough of a good guy that the Twins would seemingly consider him. He's not very durable, but he has some pop, and could use the shallow RF in the homer dome to his advantage.
If the three of those players combine for 1200 PAs next year, that's a huge improvement at those positions. I'm ok with giving Casilla more OTJ training at 2B with Punto as his caddy. Otherwise, I'd shoot for Loretta at 2B to avoid giving up a first rounder.
Other interesting players- Tony Clark at DH, Ryan Klesko at DH (could be Phil Nevin part II), Mike Sweeney at DH for 150 PAs, Reggie Sanders in OF, Kenny Lofton as new CF.
Players to avoid- Tad Iguchi at 2B/3B (not worth the type A comp), Sean Casey at DH, Marcus Giles at 2B (very bad since PED testing began. I'm just sayin'), Luis Gonzalez in OF.
No power yet for Mauer? He is headed into his age 25 season..
The Dbacks need young pitchers and have excess young hitters.
Talk about a match made on LavaLife.
Looks like Ken could make millions if he could just learn to play shortstop.
The Dbacks need young pitchers and have excess young hitters.
Sorry levski, but the best match I've contended for several months is the other expansion team. I would love to package Nathan/Bonser for a Longoria/Brignac package in return. Do it, Bill Smith!
I'm sure you do. And maybe Aaron Gleeman can bang Jessica Alba to complete the trade.
My choice would be to prove Rincon healthy in the spring and then move him out right away. Rincon has been ridden very hard the past few years (348 games in the past five years) and wasn't very effective down the stretch, eventually hitting the DL again. Neshek wore down pretty badly in his first tour at the top level and Crain is coming off a missed year due to surgery. Given the number of kids in the rotation there will be days when they need a deep bullpen and I trust Nathan to stay healthy and perform better than others this year. I think Perkins will be a big part of that pen as well, since he performed well in the role last year and it'll give him a chance to work into a regular gig the way Guerererer has done. (He's another guy they could move while everyone still remembers 06: he's been quite good for a few years now.)
Anyway, the rotation will be Santana, Baker/Slowey/Garza, Liriano/Blackburn/Bonser. I think Silva is super-gone. I think they'll ease Liriano in slowly. I think based on his second half Baker gets to be leader of the non-Johans. I think Bonser has a lot to prove next spring starting with his weight/conditioning the moment he enters the locker room.
But mostly I agree that they hang onto the core until they decide if they want to trade Santana and what they want for him. Once that's done they'll mess around elsewhere.
I'd like to see some bullpen depth traded for a 3B. I'd like a real thumper for DH, not this Klesko or Clark nonsense. I'd be comfortable with a glove guy in CF since it seems unlikely they're going to play with the big dogs in the tall CF grass. (I too have been asking if Kenny Lofton can still cover CF.) I think Bartlett is a good SS and they have planty of other priorities above that. I think Koskie is done - he hasn't played in a year and a half due to that concussion and I haven't heard anyone hinting that it suddenly got better.
A ton of everything rides on how different Smith is from Ryan. I hope there's a good difference, but I fear there will be a consolidation year or two while they wait for the new park to open and they won't try again behind Santana and Nathan and Morneau and such.
Can I add Darin Erstad to this list?
Four years of Hart for a one-year rental of Nathan? Err, no.
Zips doesn't know that he had a hernia problem most of the year last year. I wouldn't be surprised if the power pops up a little more next year.
Is Liriano expected to be back for Spring Training? Or unknown at this point?
I think has been throwing off a mound for a while now, and the team expects he to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Everything sounds pretty positive.
How much money do they have to spend?
This is a team with only 4 players projected to hit better than the average C! OK, 5 but one of them is the backup C. They've got to find 3500 PAs of non-suckitude via trade or FA. That's really hard to do even if you have lots of money, especially with this crop of FA.
Why would you wish a STD on a fellow Primate?
This is a team with only 4 players projected to hit better than the average C! OK, 5 but one of them is the backup C. They've got to find 3500 PAs of non-suckitude via trade or FA. That's really hard to do even if you have lots of money, especially with this crop of FA.
Well, offense is only half the game. They have 10 above average pitchers there as well. Actually, if you just compare the projections above to the averages, you'll see where Dan was going by saying they could fill a couple holes and be solid. They have 10 above average pitchers, 2 above average starting position players. 12 above average players on a team of 25 sounds like a good start. Baker, Bartlett, Cuddyer and Redmond are close to average for their positions....not great, but reasonable players. That leaves 9 spots that are some version of terrible....5 of them are starting position players. If they can upgrade 3 or 4 of those spots to be average or close to it I would think that they should be an above average team overall.
There have multiple reports that the Twins will have > $20 million to spend after the sign their arbitration players. They really need a CF and two players to augment/platoon with Kubel as the DH and LF. They should be able to split $20 million 3 ways to fill those holes pretty well. They'd still have a terrible 2b and 3b and a few poor reserves, but they'd be good enough elsewhere to survive that.
No. Even smart people frequently put way too much stock into monthly splits. It's part of the way our brains work, attempting to see patterns where none exist. And when you combine that with wishful thinking, it's a pretty potent pair.
The most recent obvious examples of this I can remember is the beginning of May when David Wright was getting a number of boos and there were frequent media mentions of him having only 4 homers in the last 3 months (going back to August/September of 2006) and worrying about his lack of power and Bobby Abreu's slump at the beginning of the season, which seemed to people to confirm their wishes that the Yankees big acquisition was old and failing, complete with comments from scouts illustrating exactly why he was done as a major leaguer.
Of course, Wright ended up the season as a serious MVP candidate and Abreu had a 137 OPS+ the second half of the season.
They already have a punto.
Oh, wait, I guess I read that wrong.
Still, if there is a player that bears watching after a hot couple months, it likely is the player who has yet to fulfill his potential due to forces out of his control. Jason Kubel fits that mold.
They do need to minimize his play against LH pitching.
Well put, levski.
Oops, I lied, they have 5 starters who are projected to hit better than the average C (missed Bartlett). Still, that leaves them with 4 starting positions which are projected to hit worse than the average C, that would be with OPSs below 700. 4 starting positions and almost an entire bench (Redmond being the exception). So sorry, that's only 3,000 PAs they need to upgrade from Brad Ausmus to something decent to fill out even an average offense. They were 12th in scoring last year, are losing one of their better hitters (who had the highest OPS+ on the team last year), and have already lost last year's starting 2B. Their OPS+ last year was 93 and currently they're substantially worse than that -- I wonder if they project any better than an 88 OPS+. They aren't a particularly young team on offense so the only current player you can point to and say "we expect more" might be Kubel playing a full season.
By position, they're way above average at C, above average at 1B, probably a bit below average in RF and SS once bench players are brought into it, below average in LF (especially if Kubel isn't a full-timer) and near replacement level everywhere else. So sure, at one level moving from replacement to average at a couple positions is an "easy" way to add about 4 wins.
So yes, if the Twins can go out and find an average CF and DH and non-suckitude at 2B and 3B and/or a very good bench and do that all for $20 M and Liriano comes back strong and the rest of the team stays pretty healthy ... then they've got a good shot at 85 wins. And "true" 85 win teams have about a, what, 5-10% chance at 92 wins.
Sorry, that doesn't look at all to me like a "realistic" scenario.
Could be wrong ... if folks want to suggest some options. There might be some fairly cheap 2B options -- Iguchi, Matsui, somebody else I forget, or possibly Eckstein. Maybe Cameron's price has fallen far enough. How's Graffanino (bench role) these days? I don't know who you're gonna grab for DH.
It's true you never know. Just before the start of the 84 season, the Cubs managed to trade Bill Campbell for their starting LF and CF.
They would need to replace Hunter's piece of the offense, of course, but they have 5 otherwise miserable spots to use to do that. They averaged a .704 OPS from CF, LF, DH, 2b and 3B combined last year....that shouldn't be hard to replicate on the whole. That is well below average production for any of those spots. You could probably do it without shelling out for even one average player.
The ZIPS release period is one of my favorite aspects of the long offseason. I was going through the projections you have so far, and I was wondering if you could cook up a projection for Fernando Perez of Tampa Bay -- I'm curious whether ZIPS thinks he's ready for the show yet, or if it thinks he can be more than a middle class Joey Gathright.
Thanks.
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