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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, November 04, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets
While the Ny Mets are not my favorite squadron, reports of the Mets' demise are grossly premature. When a team collapses as badly as the Mets did the last few months of the season, people always look for some narrative to explain that loss. That the Mets are just a very good team that just played badly for awhile is generally not sexy enough for the headlines, but that's what most likely happened. How often did one hear OMG 4.67 SEC0ND HALF ERA!!!!!! the last few weeks of the season? While that's extremely disappointing, April, May, June, and the first third of July aren't exhibition games and the Mets did a very good job at getting those same big leaguers out over that span. Even with the bad second half, the Mets for the season got above-average performance out of both their rotation and their bullpen. Maine and Perez are young and back and while Pedro's health is likely going to always be a question-mark, 5 starts is certainly below Pedro's mean health projection.ZiPS really likes Kevin Mulvey, which puts him on my Antacid Watch List next year as I'll probably follow him daily in a hope I can telepathically force him to make me not look like an idiot. I've lucked out the last two notable occasions (projecting Maine to have an ERA half a point better than Benson at the time of the trade and then Rich Hill at 12-8, 3.65 for this season). Pelfrey with a 4.30 projection for 2007 you say? No, that must've been some other ZiPS, maybe from Akron.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
David Wright 3b 25 .313 .405 .540 154 576 106 180 42 1 29 113 87 110 23 5
Moises Alou lf 41 .302 .365 .489 87 311 44 94 17 1 13 48 30 33 2 1
Carlos Beltran# cf 31 .261 .347 .476 137 521 91 136 32 1 26 93 69 99 15 2
Carlos Delgado* 1b 36 .257 .349 .476 135 506 72 130 31 1 26 93 61 112 1 0
Jose Reyes# ss 25 .285 .356 .444 158 673 122 192 34 14 15 70 74 79 71 20
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .274 .353 .437 ------------------------------------------
Lastings Milledge cf 23 .270 .355 .449 116 392 53 106 20 4 14 58 42 88 7 6
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .273 .345 .439 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .272 .342 .440 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .269 .339 .436 ------------------------------------------
Shawn Green* rf 35 .274 .343 .424 127 453 61 124 28 2 12 51 41 73 5 2
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .267 .331 .413 ------------------------------------------
Luis Castillo# 2b 32 .294 .361 .359 137 537 82 158 18 4 3 44 57 55 18 7
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .271 .332 .402 ------------------------------------------
Ramon Castro c 32 .250 .318 .434 45 136 20 34 7 0 6 21 13 34 0 1
Brett Harper* 1b 26 .253 .299 .443 129 438 47 111 20 0 21 70 25 118 1 0
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .269 .325 .395 ------------------------------------------
Fernando Tatis 3b 33 .255 .327 .397 110 388 42 99 19 3 10 39 38 72 3 3
Ben Johnson rf 27 .246 .322 .394 98 317 46 78 18 1 9 39 33 82 3 1
Marlon Anderson* 2b 34 .257 .319 .410 109 210 28 54 12 1 6 29 19 40 4 2
Andy Tracy* 1b 34 .235 .333 .384 114 383 38 90 18 0 13 51 54 85 1 3
Damion Easley 2b 38 .242 .321 .392 76 186 23 45 10 0 6 22 17 34 1 1
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .255 .316 .390 ------------------------------------------
Paul Lo Duca c 36 .274 .320 .369 111 420 50 115 23 1 5 46 26 28 2 0
Endy Chavez* lf 30 .275 .319 .379 104 240 31 66 13 3 2 27 16 29 7 2
Jose Valentin# 2b 38 .237 .308 .402 88 249 32 59 15 1 8 34 25 50 3 1
David Newhan* 2b 34 .247 .319 .371 75 186 23 46 9 1 4 22 18 37 5 2
Jeff Conine 1b 42 .255 .323 .356 103 306 30 78 15 2 4 34 28 70 1 0
Mark Kiger 3b 28 .240 .330 .350 128 417 54 100 23 1 7 33 52 98 7 4
Carlos Gomez cf 22 .247 .307 .355 104 324 34 80 16 2 5 30 20 67 22 8
Ruben Gotay# 2b 25 .245 .304 .361 119 380 39 93 21 1 7 41 30 74 4 3
Mike Carp* 1b 22 .226 .295 .352 123 421 38 95 20 0 11 53 30 94 1 1
Jason Alfaro ss 30 .243 .280 .368 100 337 27 82 19 1 7 39 17 49 1 1
Anderson Hernandez# ss 25 .265 .297 .341 133 525 64 139 22 3 4 37 23 79 13 8
Nicholas Evans 1b 22 .224 .277 .353 118 411 34 92 21 1 10 41 28 91 2 0
Shawn Wooten c 35 .234 .286 .325 84 286 20 67 14 0 4 29 18 57 0 0
Fernando Martinez cf 19 .236 .282 .335 69 263 24 62 12 1 4 22 13 55 2 4
Miguel Negron* cf 25 .235 .284 .318 118 425 41 100 19 2 4 42 29 75 10 7
Mike DiFelice c 39 .215 .283 .292 66 209 16 45 7 0 3 21 16 55 0 1
Sandy Alomar Jr. c 42 .233 .252 .302 55 129 8 30 6 0 1 15 4 21 0 0
Jose Reyes# c 25 .215 .267 .260 89 265 20 57 9 0 1 29 18 36 2 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Wright Av
Alou Fr Pr
Beltran# Ex
Delgado* Av
Reyes# Vg
Milledge Fr Fr Fr
Green* Av Fr
Castillo# Av
Castro Fr
Harper* Av Fr
Tatis Av Fr Fr Fr
Johnson Av Av Vg
Anderson* Av Av Av Fr Av
Tracy* Av Pr
Easley Av Av Av Pr Av
Lo Duca Fr
Chavez* Ex Ex Ex
Valentin# Vg Vg Fr Fr
Newhan* Av Pr Pr Av Av
Conine Av Av Av
Kiger Av Av Av Fr
Gomez Vg Vg Vg
Gotay# Fr Fr Pr
Carp* Av
Alfaro Av Av Pr Av Av
Hernandez# Vg Av
Evans Av
W00ten Pr Av
Martinez Fr
Negron* Av Av Av
DiFelice Av
Alomar Pr
Reyes# Vg
Player Spotlight - David Wright
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .334 .436 .608 161 602 129 201 48 3 37 145 105 107 33 4
Mean .313 .405 .540 154 576 106 180 42 1 29 113 87 110 23 5
Pessimistic (15%) .291 .372 .478 128 477 75 139 30 1 19 75 61 100 15 5
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Freddie Lindstrom, Chipper Jones
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Billy Wagner* 36 2.71 4 1 70 0 73.0 57 22 8 22 84
Pedro Feliciano* 31 3.18 4 2 75 0 65.0 56 23 5 25 58
Aaron Heilman 29 3.21 7 3 76 0 87.0 76 31 7 27 73
Pedro Martinez 36 3.24 12 6 24 24 150.0 129 54 16 36 145
Duaner Sanchez 28 3.52 5 3 65 0 69.0 63 27 6 27 53
Joe Smith 24 3.66 3 2 62 0 59.0 56 24 4 22 49
Oliver Perez* 26 4.04 13 10 29 29 176.0 161 79 25 72 170
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.12 -----------------------------------------------
John Maine 27 4.15 13 10 31 30 178.0 168 82 23 66 148
Kevin Mulvey 23 4.17 10 8 23 23 138.0 150 64 10 37 71
Orlando Hernandez 42 4.25 9 8 26 24 142.0 132 67 21 57 119
Juan Padilla 31 4.28 4 4 53 0 80.0 84 38 8 28 51
Tom Glavine* 42 4.34 11 10 32 32 195.0 211 94 20 63 95
Scott Schoeneweis* 34 4.34 2 2 71 0 56.0 54 27 5 28 39
Jorge Sosa 31 4.47 9 9 45 18 131.0 137 65 18 50 77
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.48 -----------------------------------------------
Steve Schmoll 28 4.75 3 4 55 0 72.0 79 38 8 24 38
Willie Collazo* 28 4.83 6 7 39 13 121.0 135 65 17 36 59
Guillermo Mota 34 4.85 2 3 56 0 65.0 66 35 9 28 50
Mike Pelfrey 24 4.86 9 10 29 28 150.0 163 81 16 60 90
Carlos Muniz 27 4.92 4 4 51 0 64.0 66 35 10 26 44
Aaron Sele 38 4.95 6 8 28 15 109.0 125 60 14 38 55
Ambiorix Burgos 24 4.97 3 4 58 0 67.0 65 37 14 28 67
Jonathan Niese* 21 5.17 10 13 31 31 160.0 182 92 19 56 93
Deolis Guerra 19 5.21 5 7 21 21 95.0 103 55 13 41 52
Phil Humber 26 5.39 6 10 24 22 122.0 137 73 24 34 74
Jason Vargas* 25 5.45 7 11 30 27 157.0 178 95 24 55 96
Dave Williams* 29 5.54 5 9 20 19 104.0 117 64 20 42 55
Adam Bostick* 25 5.65 6 11 27 26 145.0 158 91 22 74 93
Brandon Nall 26 6.00 4 5 44 0 63.0 86 42 7 37 52
Clint Nageotte 27 6.04 4 7 20 13 79.0 90 53 9 48 32
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - John Maine
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.15 18 8 35 34 206 173 72 18 67 190
Mean 4.15 13 10 31 30 176 168 82 23 66 148
Pessimistic (15%) 5.10 8 11 26 25 143 148 81 23 65 110
Top Near-Age Comps: Ron Schueler, Stan Williams
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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I just met this really cool baseball player, but I can't remember his name. All I know is that it rhymes with the name of Pirates relief pitcher. Asa? Gorres?
Bring him back!
I assume the low line on Beltran looks low because of his awful 2005.
We need to re-sign Castro.
I'll take those pitcher projections.
I doubt you'll find many teams with five hitters who project better than an average 1b (and for good measure they've got a sixth who projects as well as an average 1b). So far the Yankees have six, but two of them are free agents, and the A's have five, but three of them are LH 1B/DHs.
Jorge Posada could make a lot of money next year though.
We do have five regulars projected better than the average 1b and are above average at every position if you include Castro at C. This is hardly the Giants offense, even if our pitching projected better than expected.
I told you he'd never learn to hit. :-)
Clint Nageotte is just 1 year older than Philip Humber? Who knew?
And there is something very, very wrong with baseball (or ZIPS) when Shawn Green is projected to hit about as well as the average RF.
Green actually had a fine season against righthanded hitters, posting an .865 OPS against them last season. He wouldn't be a bad option as the righthanded portion of a platoon at first.
Random comments:
That's a nice projection for Pedro. If he is as effective as that, but throws 30-40 more innings, the Mets will have a true #1 starter. I really don't know what to expect from him next season. I could see him having a Cy Young calibre season like 2005 and I could see him throwing less than 100 IP. He really hasn't had arm issues other than the shoulder. Will he have a Smoltz like resurgence late in his career now that surgery has supposedly corrected the problem? One thing to keep in mind is that Pedro struck out 29.6% of the hitters he faced in his last 3 starts of the season, (24 strikeouts in 18 innings but he faced more baserunners than usual).
That's an amazing projection for Mulvey. I don't know why Zips thinks he'll be better than any starter but Pedro but I don't think that's happening. He might make some starts during the season though. I think Zips is being too hard on Humber. He wasn't horrible in the PCL with relatively strong peripherals.
That projects to be a solid bullpen and there's no reason to be pessimistic about any of those projections except Sanchez so they need to get one more guy. A Dotel would be nice perhaps. It'll be interesting to see what kind of season Heilman has considering his k/9 has fallen off a cliff. He averaged 9.82 k/9 as a reliever in 2005. That has dropped all the way down to 6.59 last season although he actually improved his k/bb ratio. Wagner was dominant for most of the season last year but faded down the stretch. Is that just a slump or something more worrisome?
I think Zips is right on Maine and just a little pesismistic about Ollie. Maine had such a weird stretch down the season. He struck out 62 hitters in his last 50.2 IP but posted a 4.97 ERA during that time. The Mets said he was tipping his pitches before his last start and he was awesome against the Marlins in his last start of the season.
I'll take the over on Beltran's and Alou's OPS. That's a sweet projection for Milledge. I'll take the under on Castro.
Really though, I have little comment otherwise. This all looks about right. Beltran might be low, but I wouldn't be surprised with that. Delgado projected to about what I was thinking.
Bold prediction: Kevin Mulvey is going to be better than some people think.
He wasn't as good as his ERA last year - his peripherals were those of a 4.5 ERA picther last season, and his RA was 4.58. I think that projection looks just fine.
Beltran is probably low, though.
Pedro is the big X-factor for the Mets next year. If he's PEDRO, the Mets are on the short list of favorites. If he pitches like a #3 starter (or pitches very little), they'll just be another NL contender.
Also, (once again) thanks a million for running these and making them freely available. Great stuff, and your hard work is very much appreciated.
200 hits and 100 walks is good right?
Thanks.
200 hits and 100 walks is good right?
Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?
My best guess was Jeter, but he never did it.
Need a guy who compiles the PA, hits for average and takes walks. Hrm.
Frank Thomas?
Didn't Boggs do it like 5 straight years or something?
Boggs did it four straight years from 1986 to 1989.
Only 4 in a row for Boggs, what a loser.
Re; El Duque. I was actually pretty confident he would have a good year with the Mets last season because of the strong peripherals he posted with the Mets in 2006, (4.10 FIP ERA) but I have to say I am a little worried about him and would take the over on that ERA.
karma.
I would advise them not to. 2B is a position where you can go cheap, there are very few outstanding options but no shortage of guys who can play. 2B has probably the least distance between average and replacement level of all the positions.
Mark Kiger might be a better option than Gotay. He's still waiting for his regular season debut, but he's a veteran of the postseason.
To me, that actually leaves me more rather than less optimistic than I've been in the past about Mulvey. A guy who keeps the ball down, and whom the scouts just don't like for reasons they can't quite define even though he succeeds at the AA level? I'll take my chances, though my overall expectations remain pretty middling. Let's see what he can do at New Orleans in 2008.
too much bling-bling bringing him down
Sure, but it'd be even nicer if we had Scott Kazmir. Why go there? At least Omar's balance sheet (unlike Duquette's) is pretty good, so I'm not gonna complain about a couple of trades that backfired. And who knows what may happen with Vargas now that he's had surgery and might get himself healthy down the road?
I'm pretty sure I know.
ZiPS still likes him, though - while it is AA ball, pitchers that have allowed just 5 home runs in 173 professional innings are a rarity. Even Wang's home run allowed rate in the minors was almost twice that.
Wow, horrible projection for Humber. He was great in the PCL last year - what gives? Was the Mets home park a pitchers park in a hitters league or something? Too lazy to look up the numbers but he was top ten in all the good things.
Sad about the low projection on Endy but know its right.
Would take the over on Joe Smith's ERA, the over on Pedro's innings, the under for Ollie's ERA and like Reyes and Beltran to hit better than projected. How could that '05 still be weighing Beltran down so much?
That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though - unless health issues once again ravage the OF, he shouldn't be getting more than 250 PAs, and they should be in situations favorable to him (hopefully).
That Sheehan SI article suggested the Indians trade Peralta to the Cubs, but I'm thinking that he might be someone the Mets should try to pursue (for 2B).
Bwahhahahaha! "Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors..."
Given that the LFer is Moises Alou, it is a near certainty that health issues will once again ravage at least one OF spot.
Not sure, but I know there was plenty of talk (among pundit types, at least) that the Indians would be better served to flip-flop Asdrubal Cabrera & Peralta in the field. His play in the ALCS - Jeter-esque range, playing footsie w/ Casey Blake on a mid-range pop-up - definitely wasn't helping his cause. & as I see if, if Cleveland is considering the 2B move w/ Peralta, it'd make sense for the Mets to see if they could do the same w/ him (Carlos Baerga stigma notwithstanding). Not sure who CLE has waiting in the wings, tho.
As for my comment about Endy getting 250+ PAs, it was stated w/ the assumption that ZiPS projected him getting 400+ PAs. I must've been looking @ LoDuca's line by mistake, because ZiPS shows Endy getting 240 PAs, so never mind that.
However, doubting the restorative power of Alou's urea is just plain silly.
Come on, didn't you hear Omar? Alou's on a "mission."
Just like Lindstrom.
http://baseballmind.blogspot.com/
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