ZiPS really likes Kevin Mulvey,

I just met this really cool baseball player, but I can't remember his name. All I know is that it rhymes with the name of Pirates relief pitcher. Asa? Gorres?

That Gotay projection is ugly. Maybe the Mets should resign Castillo.

Beltran looks low - he's projected to slug 50 points less than either of the last two years and hit 7 fewer HR than either year?

Interesting - these projections look like a team that needs a bat, not a team that needs more pitching, which is the conventional wisdom.

I would take that line from Delgado at this point in his career, but it's funny that he and the other Carlos have virtually identical projections.

LoDuca! 274/320/369/689!
Bring him back!

#5 - I think that was true last year too, which was weird then also.

I assume the low line on Beltran looks low because of his awful 2005.

I'm liking that Milledge projection.

We need to re-sign Castro.

I'll take those pitcher projections.

Duque had a FIP of 4.89 last year, an average FIP since 2004 of 4.63, he's listed at 42 for 08 but God knows how old he really is. I'd be thrilled to get 4.25, though I'm not sure where it's coming from.

Interesting - these projections look like a team that needs a bat, not a team that needs more pitching, which is the conventional wisdom.

I doubt you'll find many teams with five hitters who project better than an average 1b (and for good measure they've got a sixth who projects as well as an average 1b). So far the Yankees have six, but two of them are free agents, and the A's have five, but three of them are LH 1B/DHs.

Jorge Posada could make a lot of money next year though.

Interesting - these projections look like a team that needs a bat, not a team that needs more pitching, which is the conventional wisdom.

We do have five regulars projected better than the average 1b and are above average at every position if you include Castro at C. This is hardly the Giants offense, even if our pitching projected better than expected.

Jose Reyes# c 25 .215 .267 .260 89 265 20 57 9 0 1 29 18 36 2 1

I told you he'd never learn to hit. :-)

Clint Nageotte is just 1 year older than Philip Humber? Who knew?

And there is something very, very wrong with baseball (or ZIPS) when Shawn Green is projected to hit about as well as the average RF.

And there is something very, very wrong with baseball (or ZIPS) when Shawn Green is projected to hit about as well as the average RF.

Green actually had a fine season against righthanded hitters, posting an .865 OPS against them last season. He wouldn't be a bad option as the righthanded portion of a platoon at first.

Random comments:

That's a nice projection for Pedro. If he is as effective as that, but throws 30-40 more innings, the Mets will have a true #1 starter. I really don't know what to expect from him next season. I could see him having a Cy Young calibre season like 2005 and I could see him throwing less than 100 IP. He really hasn't had arm issues other than the shoulder. Will he have a Smoltz like resurgence late in his career now that surgery has supposedly corrected the problem? One thing to keep in mind is that Pedro struck out 29.6% of the hitters he faced in his last 3 starts of the season, (24 strikeouts in 18 innings but he faced more baserunners than usual).

That's an amazing projection for Mulvey. I don't know why Zips thinks he'll be better than any starter but Pedro but I don't think that's happening. He might make some starts during the season though. I think Zips is being too hard on Humber. He wasn't horrible in the PCL with relatively strong peripherals.

That projects to be a solid bullpen and there's no reason to be pessimistic about any of those projections except Sanchez so they need to get one more guy. A Dotel would be nice perhaps. It'll be interesting to see what kind of season Heilman has considering his k/9 has fallen off a cliff. He averaged 9.82 k/9 as a reliever in 2005. That has dropped all the way down to 6.59 last season although he actually improved his k/bb ratio. Wagner was dominant for most of the season last year but faded down the stretch. Is that just a slump or something more worrisome?

I think Zips is right on Maine and just a little pesismistic about Ollie. Maine had such a weird stretch down the season. He struck out 62 hitters in his last 50.2 IP but posted a 4.97 ERA during that time. The Mets said he was tipping his pitches before his last start and he was awesome against the Marlins in his last start of the season.

I'll take the over on Beltran's and Alou's OPS. That's a sweet projection for Milledge. I'll take the under on Castro.

Mota doesn't deserve an ERA prediction below 5.

Really though, I have little comment otherwise. This all looks about right. Beltran might be low, but I wouldn't be surprised with that. Delgado projected to about what I was thinking.

Bold prediction: Kevin Mulvey is going to be better than some people think.

just a little pesismistic about Ollie

He wasn't as good as his ERA last year - his peripherals were those of a 4.5 ERA picther last season, and his RA was 4.58. I think that projection looks just fine.

Beltran is probably low, though.

Pedro is the big X-factor for the Mets next year. If he's PEDRO, the Mets are on the short list of favorites. If he pitches like a #3 starter (or pitches very little), they'll just be another NL contender.

Dan, not sure if you track such things, but does Perez have a larger variance in his projection than most other pitchers?

Also, (once again) thanks a million for running these and making them freely available. Great stuff, and your hard work is very much appreciated.

Joe, I haven't kept specific note, but Perez has a variation between 15th and 85th percentiles of 2.21 runs, which is definitely larger than average.

Re: Wright's optimistic projection

200 hits and 100 walks is good right?

Joe, I haven't kept specific note, but Perez has a variation between 15th and 85th percentiles of 2.21 runs, which is definitely larger than average.

Thanks.

Re: Wright's optimistic projection

200 hits and 100 walks is good right?

Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?

Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?

My best guess was Jeter, but he never did it.

Need a guy who compiles the PA, hits for average and takes walks. Hrm.

Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?

Frank Thomas?

Didn't Boggs do it like 5 straight years or something?

Not Thomas.

Boggs did it four straight years from 1986 to 1989.

Thomas is wrong. I found the answer, once I saw it seemed pretty easy.

Only 4 in a row for Boggs, what a loser.

My guess was wrong, but it did end up being his teammate (did it twice, FYI).

So is this thread going to be hijacked by a trivia question? I know the answer but don't want to be the guy that blurts the answer.

Re; El Duque. I was actually pretty confident he would have a good year with the Mets last season because of the strong peripherals he posted with the Mets in 2006, (4.10 FIP ERA) but I have to say I am a little worried about him and would take the over on that ERA.

So is this thread going to be hijacked by a trivia question?

karma.

I guess biggio

Since one of the Mets' five players projected better than a 1b is Alou, that makes it more like four and a half Mets projected to hit better than a 1b once you factor in Alou's yearly 3 months lost to injury. Still, a team could do a lot worse.

Todd Helton.

glad that's over

Yes, Todd Helton, who did it in 2000 and 2003. Only four other players have done it in two or more seasons: Lou Gehrig (seven times), Wade Boggs (four), Babe Ruth (three) and Stan Musial (two).

Regarding Ollie, he's projected to set a career low BB rate, by a hair over 2004. Hard to argue with the projection that he'll give up a shitload of HR, but I'd call that a somewhat optimistic projection.

That Gotay projection is ugly. Maybe the Mets should resign Castillo.

I would advise them not to. 2B is a position where you can go cheap, there are very few outstanding options but no shortage of guys who can play. 2B has probably the least distance between average and replacement level of all the positions.

Mark Kiger might be a better option than Gotay. He's still waiting for his regular season debut, but he's a veteran of the postseason.

One result of this set of projections is I need to look up who the heck Kevin Mulvey is.

He's in the 2007 Baseball America prospect handbook. Fastball sits at 90-93, they say he touches 96 but I have to take a "believe it when I see it" approach to their velocity numbers. Standard assortment of offspeed pitches, slider, curve, change, none are considered great. He was the Mets' 2nd rounder, the first pick they had in the 2006 draft, out of Villanova, which happens to be the college my brother Kevin went to. He's listed at 6'1 175. Nothing about him screams top prospect, we'll see if he gets a chance to start anyway.

Mulvey's never been heralded as a top prospect, but always as a mature, smart pitcher, with 4 major-league caliber pitches. He doesn't walk anybody, so if he can keep the ball in the park he'll be effective. Projects as, at best, a #3.

Here's what John Manuel had to say in the chat BA did about the Eastern League Top 20 prospects, and why it did NOT include Mulvey, even though he had a very successful season there in 2007 (11-10, 3.32 ERA, 151.2 IP, 145 H, 4 HR, 43 BB, 110 K). The question was, "Were any Mets players [besides Fernando Martinez, who was # 3] considered for the top 20 list?" Manuel's answer:

Kevin Mulvey is the obvious one, and he came close to making it. Several teams scouting Binghamton hard because the Mets were looking to make deals, and they all tried to get Mulvey because he was the No. 2 prospect on the team. He's kind of a lesser version of Balester--keeps the ball down, and is effective when he does tat, but if you grade out his stuff, whereas Balester is average stuff across the board, and maybe some projection left so you say he could be a tick above with one or two pitches, Mulvey kind of is who he is and is fringe-average as opposed to average. On the 20-80 scale, we're talking 45s instead of 50s, 45 command too. He does miss low, so he's not giving up a lot of HRs. One scout in particular questioned whether Mulvey was the kind of guy to handle NYC or not, but you can probably say that for a lot of players. He didn't miss the 20 by much, but I just couldn't find a source to go to bat for him, so he missed.

To me, that actually leaves me more rather than less optimistic than I've been in the past about Mulvey. A guy who keeps the ball down, and whom the scouts just don't like for reasons they can't quite define even though he succeeds at the AA level? I'll take my chances, though my overall expectations remain pretty middling. Let's see what he can do at New Orleans in 2008.

I haven't seen Mets fans so excited about a can't miss pitching prospect since Yusmeiro Petit-mania swept Flushing.

I wonder if Mulvey is projected to allow an inordinate amount of unearned runs because I really have no idea where that projection is coming from. He allowed quite a few in AA last season but that might be due to the fact that fielders in the minors aren't very good. The only thing that he has done really well in the minors is not allow homers.

Btw, why does Milledge rate under the average firstbaseman when the projection has him 14 OPS points above average? A lot of double plays? Or is it the poor basestealing?

#40 -- From his bb-ref page Mulvey doesn't look like any too swift a fielder himself.

why does Milledge rate under the average firstbaseman when the projection has him 14 OPS points above average?

too much bling-bling bringing him down

41 - racism

Well, plugging Mulvey's projected numbers into the fips formula gives me a 3.90-4.10 ERA so unearned runs aren't to be blamed.

The approximately -5 net stolen bases brings Milledge down ever so slightly below average 1B.

When I'm on the desktop, I will double-check Mulvey.

Perhaps this has been said before, but it'd be nice if we had Heath Bell and Matt Lindstrom.

Perhaps this has been said before, but it'd be nice if we had Heath Bell and Matt Lindstrom.

Sure, but it'd be even nicer if we had Scott Kazmir. Why go there? At least Omar's balance sheet (unlike Duquette's) is pretty good, so I'm not gonna complain about a couple of trades that backfired. And who knows what may happen with Vargas now that he's had surgery and might get himself healthy down the road?

And who knows what may happen with Vargas now that he's had surgery and might get himself healthy down the road?

I'm pretty sure I know.

I did find an error in Mulvey, though not a big one, which has been corrected. Essentially, since he had less than 2 professional seasons, I was forced to utilize a rough college translation, but I accidentally translated that performance in a Binghamton context.

ZiPS still likes him, though - while it is AA ball, pitchers that have allowed just 5 home runs in 173 professional innings are a rarity. Even Wang's home run allowed rate in the minors was almost twice that.

I figured out why Duque came out so low: the FIP based on those projected peripherals is around 4.65, near his average level of performance the last few years, but a relatively low BABIP brings the projected ERA down. The crazy low BABIP he posted last year is to blame.

Don't forget, El Duque's career ERA is 0.45 below his FIP, 0.35 below his DIPS ERA, and a .272 career BABIP. The Mets and Shea also project to having a very low "base" BABIP. Remember, I'm not making defense/park neutral projections - DIPS theory and its variants don't just help us attempt to move a pitcher's performance from a specific context to a neutral one, but also enables us to do the reverse.

Quickies:

Wow, horrible projection for Humber. He was great in the PCL last year - what gives? Was the Mets home park a pitchers park in a hitters league or something? Too lazy to look up the numbers but he was top ten in all the good things.

Sad about the low projection on Endy but know its right.

Would take the over on Joe Smith's ERA, the over on Pedro's innings, the under for Ollie's ERA and like Reyes and Beltran to hit better than projected. How could that '05 still be weighing Beltran down so much?

Sad about the low projection on Endy but know its right.

That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though - unless health issues once again ravage the OF, he shouldn't be getting more than 250 PAs, and they should be in situations favorable to him (hopefully).

That Sheehan SI article suggested the Indians trade Peralta to the Cubs, but I'm thinking that he might be someone the Mets should try to pursue (for 2B).

How's Peralta's defense?

That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though -

Bwahhahahaha! "Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors..."

That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though - unless health issues once again ravage the OF, he shouldn't be getting more than 250 PAs, and they should be in situations favorable to him (hopefully).

Given that the LFer is Moises Alou, it is a near certainty that health issues will once again ravage at least one OF spot.

How's Peralta's defense?

Not sure, but I know there was plenty of talk (among pundit types, at least) that the Indians would be better served to flip-flop Asdrubal Cabrera & Peralta in the field. His play in the ALCS - Jeter-esque range, playing footsie w/ Casey Blake on a mid-range pop-up - definitely wasn't helping his cause. & as I see if, if Cleveland is considering the 2B move w/ Peralta, it'd make sense for the Mets to see if they could do the same w/ him (Carlos Baerga stigma notwithstanding). Not sure who CLE has waiting in the wings, tho.

As for my comment about Endy getting 250+ PAs, it was stated w/ the assumption that ZiPS projected him getting 400+ PAs. I must've been looking @ LoDuca's line by mistake, because ZiPS shows Endy getting 240 PAs, so never mind that.

However, doubting the restorative power of Alou's urea is just plain silly.

And never mind me not bothering to read the ZiPS disclaimer. Reading on the internet is so Web 1.0.

Given that the LFer is Moises Alou, it is a near certainty that health issues will once again ravage at least one OF spot.

Come on, didn't you hear Omar? Alou's on a "mission."

Come on, didn't you hear Omar? Alou's on a "mission."

Just like Lindstrom.

Those Carlos Gomez numbers look pretty ugly.

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