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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
ZiPS sees no reason to believe that the Yankees won't be one of the top teams in baseball again in 2008. With one of the top young pitching troikas in Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy, I'm not holding my breath for the Orioles to make a grand charge at a playoff spot. Losing A-Rod is huge, but the Yankees have enough money to remedy that situation somewhat and the pitching may very well be better if the young starters don't blow out an arm-part.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Alex Rodriguez 3b 32 .305 .410 .583 159 590 127 180 30 1 44 151 93 132 16 3
Jason Giambi* dh 37 .241 .398 .482 110 340 58 82 13 0 23 77 75 86 0 0
Bobby Abreu* rf 34 .284 .391 .445 156 573 106 163 37 2 17 111 99 117 22 7
Hideki Matsui* lf 34 .290 .368 .476 142 544 95 158 33 4 20 106 67 71 2 2
Jorge Posada# c 36 .283 .380 .447 133 452 67 128 29 0 15 78 66 92 2 0
Derek Jeter ss 34 .308 .386 .435 151 616 106 190 33 3 13 83 66 106 15 5
AVERAGE 1B/DH ---------- 1b ---- .279 .357 .475 ------------------------------------------
Robinson Cano* 2b 25 .308 .349 .488 149 584 87 180 41 5 18 98 34 73 3 4
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .277 .349 .456 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .277 .346 .458 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .274 .343 .449 ------------------------------------------
Wilson Betemit# 3b 26 .259 .335 .462 131 301 42 78 17 1 14 46 34 86 1 1
Melky Cabrera# cf 23 .286 .352 .419 159 580 83 166 29 6 12 89 59 65 13 4
Doug Mientkiewicz* 1b 34 .272 .356 .412 82 250 33 68 15 1 6 35 29 41 0 0
Johnny Damon* cf 34 .279 .348 .408 130 519 93 145 25 3 12 67 54 73 17 4
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .272 .336 .425 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .276 .337 .414 ------------------------------------------
Noah Hall lf 31 .260 .345 .407 102 339 47 88 19 2 9 46 36 58 7 4
Shelley Duncan 1b 28 .242 .311 .469 117 405 45 98 18 1 24 74 38 103 1 2
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .274 .329 .407 ------------------------------------------
Erubiel Durazo* dh 34 .252 .347 .366 39 131 12 33 6 0 3 15 18 28 0 0
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .260 .321 .403 ------------------------------------------
Jose Cruz Jr.# rf 34 .236 .333 .376 91 271 38 64 15 1 7 29 39 69 3 1
Brett Gardner* cf 24 .269 .347 .331 113 417 73 112 15 4 1 27 49 87 28 9
Andy Cannizaro 2b 29 .255 .320 .341 107 349 50 89 21 0 3 31 29 47 3 2
Bronson Sardinha* rf 25 .234 .299 .372 128 449 47 105 19 2 13 60 40 105 4 2
Kevin Reese* lf 30 .238 .310 .356 102 382 46 91 17 2 8 45 34 77 5 3
Eric Duncan* 1b 23 .223 .290 .389 109 386 30 86 23 1 13 54 34 79 1 2
Mike Kinkade 3b 35 .240 .307 .341 87 296 41 71 16 1 4 33 17 55 3 2
Angel Chavez 3b 26 .251 .286 .376 123 439 48 110 20 1 11 62 19 85 5 2
Alberto Gonzalez ss 25 .261 .306 .340 125 418 51 109 19 4 2 40 22 47 5 4
Austin Jackson cf 21 .240 .296 .342 123 450 56 108 21 2 7 38 32 127 18 10
Juan Miranda* 1b 25 .204 .278 .354 117 407 34 83 24 2 11 71 33 112 1 1
Jose Tabata rf 19 .251 .302 .314 96 350 35 88 13 0 3 38 18 76 7 5
Jose Molina c 33 .242 .275 .340 71 194 17 47 10 0 3 23 8 44 2 0
Mitchell Hilligoss* 3b 23 .248 .283 .316 113 424 49 105 18 1 3 35 19 62 15 6
Jamal Strong cf 29 .224 .305 .273 97 304 38 68 8 2 1 21 30 54 7 3
Raul Chavez c 35 .199 .232 .252 70 226 15 45 9 0 1 19 6 36 1 0
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Rodriguez Av
Giambi* Pr
Abreu* Fr
Matsui* Fr
Posada# Fr
Jeter Pr
Cano* Vg
Betemit# Fr Av Pr
Cabrera# Vg Vg Vg
Mientkiewicz* Av
Damon* Av Av Av
Hall Vg Fr
Duncan Av Av Av
Durazo* Pr
Cruz# Vg Pr Vg
Gardner* Vg Vg
Cannizaro Av Av Fr
Sardinha* Fr Fr
Reese* Av Fr Fr
Duncan* Av Pr
Kinkade Av Pr Fr Fr
Chavez Fr Av Fr
Gonzalez Vg Av
Jackson Av
Miranda* Fr
Tabata Fr
Molina Av
Hilligoss* Av Fr
Strong Av Fr Av
Chavez Vg Fr Fr
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight - Melky Cabrera
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .306 .376 .464 162 591 96 181 34 7 15 108 66 59 17 3
Mean .286 .352 .419 159 580 83 166 29 6 12 89 59 65 13 4
Pessimistic (15%) .260 .321 .358 117 427 52 111 18 3 6 50 38 53 6 4
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bernie Williams, Coco Crisp
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Mariano Rivera 38 2.40 8 1 67 0 75.0 65 20 3 14 66
Roger Clemens 45 3.59 10 6 25 25 148.0 144 59 13 43 101
Chris Britton 25 3.69 4 2 56 0 78.0 74 32 9 22 67
Philip Hughes 22 3.70 12 5 26 26 141.0 136 58 13 40 106
Chien-Ming Wang 27 3.91 15 8 30 30 200.0 213 87 13 53 87
Luis Vizcaino 33 3.93 6 4 72 0 71.0 67 31 6 33 55
Kyle Farnsworth 32 4.02 3 1 69 0 65.0 60 29 9 27 64
Andy Pettitte* 36 4.06 16 9 35 33 213.0 228 96 20 62 141
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.21 -----------------------------------------------
Ian Kennedy 23 4.38 9 7 27 26 148.0 158 72 16 42 94
Ron Villone* 38 4.43 3 2 62 0 67.0 65 33 7 35 53
Joba Chamberlain 22 4.43 9 8 24 24 134.0 136 66 19 33 121
Kevin Whelan 24 4.50 5 3 47 6 78.0 77 39 9 39 60
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.57 -----------------------------------------------
T.J. Beam 27 4.61 5 4 50 1 82.0 86 42 10 28 62
Mike Mussina 39 4.74 11 10 30 29 171.0 195 90 21 41 112
Edwar Ramirez 27 4.78 3 2 49 0 64.0 64 34 11 27 65
Humberto Sanchez 25 4.87 8 7 19 18 109.0 117 59 14 45 80
Carl Pavano 32 4.94 4 4 14 14 82.0 94 45 13 14 48
Charlie Manning* 29 5.09 4 5 48 1 76.0 80 43 10 39 52
Darrell Rasner 27 5.13 4 6 23 19 114.0 135 65 15 27 54
Jose Veras 27 5.16 4 4 54 0 61.0 67 35 9 25 41
Kei Igawa* 28 5.20 9 10 27 26 168.0 188 97 29 53 114
Sean Henn* 27 5.30 5 6 32 12 90.0 101 53 11 43 55
Brian Bruney 26 5.31 3 4 62 0 61.0 62 36 8 37 48
Ross Ohlendorf 25 5.33 7 9 27 23 162.0 198 96 24 42 81
Matt DeSalvo 27 5.39 7 9 26 25 137.0 148 82 16 81 82
Ben Kozlowski* 27 5.54 5 6 35 15 117.0 136 72 20 44 66
Jeffrey Marquez 23 5.62 9 12 25 25 141.0 175 88 22 37 63
Alan Horne 25 5.63 7 10 28 28 147.0 170 92 23 62 97
Jeff Karstens 25 5.68 9 11 28 26 160.0 190 101 30 49 91
Chase Wright* 25 5.98 7 11 32 23 149.0 177 99 27 69 69
Steven Jackson 26 6.00 6 10 27 22 147.0 186 98 24 55 61
Tyler Clippard 23 6.18 7 12 28 28 147.0 173 101 33 62 95
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Chien-Ming Wang
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.18 20 6 34 34 229 223 81 11 51 120
Mean 3.91 15 8 30 30 200 213 87 13 53 87
Pessimistic (15%) 4.67 10 9 25 25 162 186 84 14 51 63
Top Near-Age Comps: Danny Cox, Dock Ellis
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Nationals Projections
Blue Jays Projections
Rangers Projections
Rays Projections
Cardinals Projections
Mariners Projections
Giants Projections
Padres Projections
Pirates Projections
Phillies Projections
A's Projections
Yankees Projections
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 31, 2007 at 01:18 PM | 122 comment(s)
Related News: NY Yankees, ZIPS
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I was too lazy to add up the numbers, so thanks for that, actually. The other factors I'm considering in reaching my conclusion are that 1.) he was playing in pitcher's parks in pitcher's leagues 2.) those numbers are dragged down by an out of line, for him, BABIP during his first taste of AAA and 3.) He hit about the same or a little better in the DWL during that stretch as well. Yes, the major leagues are a higher level of competition, but I expect players to also get better as they make the jump to the major leagues and that in addition to everything I said before makes me think what Cano is doing isn't completely out of line with his minor league performance. Here's what I said in April '05 before he lit the world on fire at AAA:
...[Cano[ looks like a future .285-.300 big league hitter...I see Cano’s home run ceiling as 25 with about 15-20 as the expected seasonal total...prime years in the .290/.350/.470 (AVG/OBP/SLG) range...
...and your point is? :)
Actually, he's got the arm to play a deep third base. His weakest point defensively as a shortstop is the step and a dive or a step and a wave on the ball up the middle. That is a huge, huge deal. A step and a dive for a third baseman on the ball in the hole is not great, but much better than it is for a shortstop (because it happens less often and there is less ground to cover).
So the 3B options for the Yankees are:
A-Rod: Unlikely but not impossible at this point.
Betemit: So hard to project. If he put up his ZiPS numbers and had a decent glove, he'd be satisfactory. But I'm not sure how confident I am he'll make his ZiPS numbers, as that projected SLG looks 20 points too high to start.
Lowell: I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees offered him four years while Boston offered him three years, although odds are NYY would regret the final two years of that deal. And since it's not my money, I don't care that New York would likely pay him .324/.378/.501 money for .275/.340/.460 production or something in that neighborhood.
Right now, 3B looks like the biggest question mark (followed closely by just how well the Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy young guns will actually perform).
Mike Lamb.
And this would be exasperated by the fact that he has less time now before he can register where the ball is going and take that first step before diving. So, no, I don't think he would be any more effective at 3B.
YOU would be exasperated. The situation would be exacerbated
Mike Lamb.
I should add: if Betemit can't hack it as a near-everyday player, then he goes back to the utility role, Lamb and Ensberg share 3B, and you try to find another lefthanded hitting 1B.
He's hit 250/329/463, 613 AB, 35 2b, 32 HR, 74 BB. Also a worrisome 184 strikeouts. That's decent production and he should get better if they give him the job, where Lowell is virtually guaranteed to get worse, as he's old and never hit .300 before let alone .320.
Really? He already hit .342 in a season, he's showing improved patience, he had a .396 OBP in the second half this past season!
I would be giddy if Melky put up that line.
You don't think he approaches that?
As for Betemit, I think it is reasonable to expect league average production, with a decent chance he tops that. I think, considering you already have him and he's entering his age-26 season, that makes him a much better 2008 option than Mike Lowell, whose luck-based BA is almost certain to come down, making him more of a league-average offensive 3B even with no decline in skill.
He did that, or something close to it, for a while this season, but he was terrible down the stretch, so...I think people are hedging their bets. I would too. That looks like a reach for him.
April: .200/.238/.213 (.451)
May-August: .314/.369/.473 (.842)
September: .180/.236/.220 (.456)
Basically he was total garbage at the beginning and end of the season but in the middle was one of the best CF in the league. I really have no idea what--if anything--that means but it sure is weird.
By percentage, or just 'raw' difference?
Another way might be expected likelihood of actual OPS being within X% (I'd suggest 5%) of projection.
I suppose the big part of the challenge is how to present such that uncertainty due to small sample size is distinguished from uncertainty due to whatever other factors influence that range. This is especially true on the pitching side where reliever performance bounces all over the place because they're pitching just 60-70 IP a year. Maybe simply don't present it for players where the sample sizes are too small to have much confidence.
Melky play well in warm weather.
Melky play well in warm weather.
New York warm in September. Melky like.
On Cano. I think it's fair to say that he isn't going to get significantly better. in the sense that nothing is going to suddenly comeup that's completely out of line of what he is now. he's not going to suddenly start swiping bags (we all know that) he's not going to become some onbase machine and he's not going to hit 40 bombs.
what he will (hopefully) do though
1. continue to hit for high average and simply rack up hits
2. hopefully having some of his double / triples turn into HRs
3. have minor improvements in walk rate thx to experience and rising slugging.
The Jeter comp is pretty fair. one has to realize that Cano's current number stack up extremely well against EVERY modern hall of fame 2B at the similar age season ..count or rate (only Almoar is significantly ahead of him in terms of hits at the same age. and Alomar reached the majors as a teenager, that's right, he's hit pace is similar / better than Molitor / Morgan / Sandberg / Carew .. let alone late starters Biggio / Kent ), it's almost impossible to be better than he is now as a 24 year old 2B.
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