292/343/477, specifically... more than half of the plate appearances at AA, the rest at AAA... and this projects to him doing 314/346/489 in the majors... how, exactly? Now of course, if you wanna argue that his minor league stats don't matter at this point, then that's a different story, and IMO, an exceedingly sensible one. But I am really not seeing where you're getting it from that his minor league stats predicted he'd be this type of MLB player. I don't know how to phrase this any other way, but, the major leagues are a higher level of competition than AA or AAA.

I was too lazy to add up the numbers, so thanks for that, actually. The other factors I'm considering in reaching my conclusion are that 1.) he was playing in pitcher's parks in pitcher's leagues 2.) those numbers are dragged down by an out of line, for him, BABIP during his first taste of AAA and 3.) He hit about the same or a little better in the DWL during that stretch as well. Yes, the major leagues are a higher level of competition, but I expect players to also get better as they make the jump to the major leagues and that in addition to everything I said before makes me think what Cano is doing isn't completely out of line with his minor league performance. Here's what I said in April '05 before he lit the world on fire at AAA:

...[Cano[ looks like a future .285-.300 big league hitter...I see Cano’s home run ceiling as 25 with about 15-20 as the expected seasonal total...prime years in the .290/.350/.470 (AVG/OBP/SLG) range...

"When the ball is hit in play Jeter is usually the last Yankee IF to react. Placing him at 3B could actually put his life at risk."

...and your point is? :)

Actually, he's got the arm to play a deep third base. His weakest point defensively as a shortstop is the step and a dive or a step and a wave on the ball up the middle. That is a huge, huge deal. A step and a dive for a third baseman on the ball in the hole is not great, but much better than it is for a shortstop (because it happens less often and there is less ground to cover).

Jeter would be an awful 3B. But that's moot, because he's staying at SS at least through 2010, which is the extent of his current contract. If Honus Wagner came back from the dead next month, got himself into his 26-year-old shape, and signed with the Yankees, he'd be playing 3B of OF.

So the 3B options for the Yankees are:
<u>A-Rod</u>: Unlikely but not impossible at this point.
<u>Betemit</u>: So hard to project. If he put up his ZiPS numbers and had a decent glove, he'd be satisfactory. But I'm not sure how confident I am he'll make his ZiPS numbers, as that projected SLG looks 20 points too high to start.
<u>Lowell</u>: I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees offered him four years while Boston offered him three years, although odds are NYY would regret the final two years of that deal. And since it's not my money, I don't care that New York would likely pay him .324/.378/.501 money for .275/.340/.460 production or something in that neighborhood.

Right now, 3B looks like the biggest question mark (followed closely by just how well the Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy young guns will actually perform).

Ensberg and no idea what to do about 1B.

Mike Lamb.

His weakest point defensively as a shortstop is the step and a dive or a step and a wave on the ball up the middle. That is a huge, huge deal. A step and a dive for a third baseman on the ball in the hole is not great, but much better than it is for a shortstop (because it happens less often and there is less ground to cover).

And this would be exasperated by the fact that he has less time now before he can register where the ball is going and take that first step before diving. So, no, I don't think he would be any more effective at 3B.

exasperated

YOU would be exasperated. The situation would be exacerbated

Ensberg and no idea what to do about 1B.

Mike Lamb.

I should add: if Betemit can't hack it as a near-everyday player, then he goes back to the utility role, Lamb and Ensberg share 3B, and you try to find another lefthanded hitting 1B.

aleskel, thanks.

Over the last 2 years Betemit has one full season's worth of MLB playing time.

He's hit 250/329/463, 613 AB, 35 2b, 32 HR, 74 BB. Also a worrisome 184 strikeouts. That's decent production and he should get better if they give him the job, where Lowell is virtually guaranteed to get worse, as he's old and never hit .300 before let alone .320.

I do think he's capable of that line you posted (OBP is a little high, I'll be surprised if he ever puts up a .390 OBP) and Zips seems to agree that he has the potential at least to put up an MVP type season.

Really? He already hit .342 in a season, he's showing improved patience, he had a .396 OBP in the second half this past season!


I would be giddy if Melky put up that line.

You don't think he approaches that?

As for Betemit, I think it is reasonable to expect league average production, with a decent chance he tops that. I think, considering you already have him and he's entering his age-26 season, that makes him a much better 2008 option than Mike Lowell, whose luck-based BA is almost certain to come down, making him more of a league-average offensive 3B even with no decline in skill.

I'll take Lowell for 2008. For 2009 and beyond I'd have to say Betemit. Consider their relative cost - both in contract and in surrendering draft picks to your hated rivals - and I think its a no-brainer.

You don't think he approaches that?

He did that, or something close to it, for a while this season, but he was terrible down the stretch, so...I think people are hedging their bets. I would too. That looks like a reach for him.

Thanks, Dan.

He did that, or something close to it, for a while this season, but he was terrible down the stretch, so...I think people are hedging their bets. I would too. That looks like a reach for him.

Melky had a bizarre season:

April: .200/.238/.213 (.451)
May-August: .314/.369/.473 (.842)
September: .180/.236/.220 (.456)

Basically he was total garbage at the beginning and end of the season but in the middle was one of the best CF in the league. I really have no idea what--if anything--that means but it sure is weird.

One thing I do know is that I would like to see Melky stop bunting all the time.

Dan, one way that I think makes sens to show confidence would be OPS gap, betweem optimistic and pessimistic projection.

By percentage, or just 'raw' difference?

Another way might be expected likelihood of actual OPS being within X% (I'd suggest 5%) of projection.

OPS gap would work. Or, if the interval isn't necessarily symmetric, a + and - number for optimistic/pessimistic OPS. Or just 3 OPS numbers. Or potentially use something like RC/27 to get us away from OPS. With pitchers, I don't know if we have anything really other than ERA with the same sort of display options as OPS.

I suppose the big part of the challenge is how to present such that uncertainty due to small sample size is distinguished from uncertainty due to whatever other factors influence that range. This is especially true on the pitching side where reliever performance bounces all over the place because they're pitching just 60-70 IP a year. Maybe simply don't present it for players where the sample sizes are too small to have much confidence.

Request for Scott Patterson, if you don't mind, Dan.

Basically he was total garbage at the beginning and end of the season but in the middle was one of the best CF in the league. I really have no idea what--if anything--that means but it sure is weird.

Melky play well in warm weather.

Melky play well in warm weather.

New York warm in September. Melky like.

Moot now, but - no Andy Phillips?

I'll take the over on Joba, Jeter, and Posada. I'll take the under on Melky.

Nice projection, that lineup should be ridiculas again in 08. particularly if they manage to squeeze anything out of Giambi and the 1B spot.

On Cano. I think it's fair to say that he isn't going to get significantly better. in the sense that nothing is going to suddenly comeup that's completely out of line of what he is now. he's not going to suddenly start swiping bags (we all know that) he's not going to become some onbase machine and he's not going to hit 40 bombs.

what he will (hopefully) do though

1. continue to hit for high average and simply rack up hits
2. hopefully having some of his double / triples turn into HRs
3. have minor improvements in walk rate thx to experience and rising slugging.

The Jeter comp is pretty fair. one has to realize that Cano's current number stack up extremely well against EVERY modern hall of fame 2B at the similar age season ..count or rate (only Almoar is significantly ahead of him in terms of hits at the same age. and Alomar reached the majors as a teenager, that's right, he's hit pace is similar / better than Molitor / Morgan / Sandberg / Carew .. let alone late starters Biggio / Kent ), it's almost impossible to be better than he is now as a 24 year old 2B.