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Daric Barton* 22 .280 .369 .440 137 504 73 141 42 3 11 62 68 58 3 2
Kiko Calero 33 3.74 3 2 58 0 53.0 50 22 4 21 48
Danny Haren 27 3.91 14 11 34 34 221.0 224 96 29 47 174
Mark Mulder* 30 5.06 7 11 24 24 144.0 162 81 18 59 79
...ouchies...
Daric Barton* 22 .280 .369 .440 137 504 73 141 42 3 11 62 68 58 3 2
Kiko Calero 33 3.74 3 2 58 0 53.0 50 22 4 21 48
Danny Haren 27 3.91 14 11 34 34 221.0 224 96 29 47 174
Mark Mulder* 30 5.06 7 11 24 24 144.0 162 81 18 59 79
...ouchies...
Why is Jeremy Brown listed as a 1b? Seems like a perfect backup c for a team with a good defensive starting catcher, not that any such teams come to mind readily. If you have to pay $50K to the A's in the Rule 5 draft, then so be it, because Brown's still making league minimum.
That might even underrate him--he was fifth in OPS+ if you use one-year park factors.
Travis Buck* rf 23 .283 .360 .458
That's a pretty optimistic looking projection for Johnson. It would require him to set career highs in OBP and SLG. His career high OBP was 355 in 2005, career high in SLG was 451, also in 2005.
The projection for Buck OTOH, looks somewhat pessimistic.
are different than people who have been declaring 15+ starts for Harden (over roughly the same time period) how?
I would really rather this be constructed as: "How are they different than people ...?" Also, no more starting posts with "Um ..." And "Really?" has worn very thin, too.
Other than that, I love you guys.
You do. On the other hand, he was brutal with the glove there - I'm surprised he's gotten as good as he has over at third (not even faint praise).
As for his walk rate as a pro, it's been pretty consistent, apart from this season's collapse.
Posts that start with "So-and-so says hi" say hi.
Also people saying "I don't know if you're joking, but..." -- that's sometimes the most condescending thing you can possibly say.
Buck RF
Barton 1B
Bonds DH
Cust LF
Swisher CF
Chavez 3B
Ellis 2B
Crosby SS
Suzuki C
In late innnings, after Cust gets his 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 SOs, Denorfia goes to CF with Swish going to left. Denorfia would start against lefties. If Crosby and Chavez both could hit Chavez' ZIPS and assuming reasonable contributions from Buck and Suzuki, I wonder if this team doesn't make the playoffs. That Barton projection looks low.
My main question: Even if it's accepted that that particular approach optimizes offensive performance, is it possible/likely that fans would grow tired of it since it's not aesthetically pleasing? Granted, Jack Cust's main job isn't to entertain the fans. It's to help win ballgames. But if somehow you had nine Jack Custs, you'd be looking at games that lasted longer than Bonzo's live versions of "Moby Dick."
Granted, one way for pitchers to control this is to throw more strikes. And to take less time between pitches. And it wouldn't hurt if the commercial breaks were a little shorter.
And, obviously, I'd rather watch a 4:19 baseball game than a crisply played NBA or NHL game. Baseball's the doo-doo.
Just typing out loud ...
(Fun fact: Reggie Willits led the majors in P/PA in 2007.)
I would guess that fans would grow tired of this approach, but the facts don't back that up. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have had offenses built around this sort of approach and in both cases their games drag on forever. But both have ridiculously good attendance and TV ratings. Fans never get tired of winning, even "boring" winning.
...ouchies...
But then there's
Dan Meyer* 26 5.95 3 7 24 21 115.0 134 76 21 46 63
He doesn't have that many non-HR hits to begin with.
He's projected to hit about .410 on-contact here, which is lower than his rate so far in limited MLB action (.420). In the minors it was slightly higher at .424, but I have no idea how that should translate. I'm still more skeptical of the Howard projection in this regard.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA200308080.shtml (1:53)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK200305060.shtml (1:49)
Cust has an extreme type of approach that results in a very high BABIP but sacrifices BIP - it's as simple as that. Hell, his big season actually brought his line drive percentage in the majors from his 150 PA cups of coffee down!
"So-and-so says hi""Fixed" say hi.Fixed.
Yeah, those people are about as annoying as the lemming-like rats who jump off the ship when it's going down and swim away, to not be heard from again for a while.
In any event, I'll go and make the declaration now (months ahead of time) that if they can't get a full season of a healthy Harden, this team won't be that great next year either. They weren't really as bad as their record this season, but by now I would think that it would be pretty obvious to just about everyone that there's nothing particularly special about this group.
are different than people who have been declaring 15+ starts for Harden (over roughly the same time period) how?
So how many times are you going to make posts like this before you plan on R'ing TFD?
It does have some randomness to it, but not nearly as much as pitchers.
I know, it's so tiresome. When I did projections, no matter how much I stressed that predicting playing time accurately was so far beyond the realm of what you could do statistically, people would still complain about assigning all those at bats to Greg LaRocca or something.
Dan should put that disclaimer on every one of these posts. Oh that's right, he does.
Maybe someone did that, but the list in #36 of that thread is apples to apples. I just happen to think on-contact BA for all or nothing hitters is kind of interesting, and I haven't seen much on it. I didn't mean to make some big thing out of Howard's projection.
The big questions: Who are the 4th and 5th starters?
What happens at short?
Is Chris Denorfia going to be healthy and ready for CF? If not, then who?
Who will the A's bring in? My vote is for Fukudome, but the chances of that are approaching zero.
I'm optimistic about the team. Chavvy finally got the surgery he obviously needed. The offense finally bottomed out and looks ready for a resurgence. The Angels should still be heavy favorites next year, but Oakland should be strong enough to challenge.
Also, I like how Bowen and Brown are projected to just kill Suzuki. That'll also be interesting to watch play out.
Dan's not claiming that he can predict how much Haren's going to pitch. In fact he's explicitly said he can't (or at least won't).
I used to just give all hitters (non-catchers) 640 PAs and all starting pitchers 800 BFP. That made everything really clear, but Dan is doing more by least acknowledging Haren's injury problems in the projection.
You're right on Thome, I miscalculated. Manny Ramirez's is .342. Michael Young is at .341. It's obviously still early and this will probably come down, but Miguel Cabrera's is .358.
So yeah they're out there and so it isn't totally crazy to have Cust's up in that range.
OOPS! Higginson went in the tank the next year with a .261 HBIP and Abreu cut his strikeout rate and still posted a HBIP rate of .395. For their careers, Higginson was .293 and Abreu's is .356. Well at least I didn't trade him for Kevin Stocker.
I agree with this. That was basically the situation with this season's A's team as well.
I wouldn't say that Bowen or Brown (projected here as a 1B, not as a C - downgrade the numbers slightly accordingly) are killing Suzuki - his offensive projections aren't that much worse than theirs. Add to that Suzuki's better arm (I'd grade it as Average, with the potential to be a Vg over time), youth, and already having the job - and I'd guess he'd keep it.
Post #6 in this thread contradicts this.
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