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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, October 27, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s
The most notable thing about the A's disappointing, injury-filled 2007 season is how many blind squirrels it brought out of the woodwork, people that had been declaring the green-and-gold doomed every year for the last 5 or so years, and when the team finally has a real down season, declaring how smart they are. Beane never should have written that book...The season wasn't a complete washout. Danny Haren had a huge season and Travis Buck gives the A's a surplus at the hitting positions. And Jack Cust, who strikes out way too much to ever hit major league pitching and who statheads don't realize won't ever hit in the majors, was made mincemeat out of by AL hurlers to the tune of finishing 8th in the AL in OPS+. There could be a downside to all the 1B/LF/RF/DH types being healthy - Swisher in CF. Yikes! On the downside, the A's starting pitching really doesn't look all that impressive and the minor league depth just isn't there.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Jack Cust* dh 29 .264 .394 .470 135 428 65 113 22 0 22 70 92 154 0 1
Nick Swisher# lf 27 .263 .375 .483 146 518 89 136 31 1 27 83 88 127 2 2
Dan Johnson* 1b 28 .267 .369 .462 133 461 66 123 25 1 21 78 74 72 0 1
Travis Buck* rf 23 .283 .360 .458 92 332 44 94 29 4 7 36 38 68 4 1
Daric Barton* 1b 22 .280 .369 .440 137 504 73 141 42 3 11 62 68 58 3 2
AVERAGE 1B/DH ---------- 1b ---- .272 .353 .461 ------------------------------------------
Eric Chavez* 3b 30 .259 .341 .453 131 490 71 127 28 2 21 72 61 105 4 1
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .271 .344 .447 ------------------------------------------
Chris Denorfia cf 27 .282 .350 .438 132 429 65 121 22 3 13 53 43 84 7 3
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .270 .341 .448 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .268 .338 .439 ------------------------------------------
Jorge Piedra* lf 29 .267 .336 .436 81 236 28 63 17 1 7 36 22 40 0 1
Mark Ellis 2b 31 .273 .335 .418 131 488 71 133 25 2 14 58 40 79 3 2
Jack Hannahan* 3b 28 .258 .362 .375 104 349 36 90 17 0 8 43 55 100 3 3
Rob Bowen# c 27 .255 .349 .397 78 184 29 47 11 0 5 20 26 49 0 1
Jeremy Brown 1b 28 .251 .328 .424 91 311 34 78 18 0 12 44 34 59 0 0
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .270 .332 .405 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .268 .325 .398 ------------------------------------------
Shannon Stewart lf 34 .283 .341 .370 106 424 56 120 17 1 6 35 34 47 6 2
Vasili Spanos 1b 27 .263 .324 .398 112 392 46 103 25 2 8 48 26 81 1 1
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .253 .316 .393 ------------------------------------------
Marco Scutaro ss 32 .254 .334 .359 107 343 47 87 16 1 6 36 40 49 3 1
Mike Piazza dh 39 .251 .304 .405 96 331 31 83 15 0 12 45 24 62 0 0
Donnie Murphy ss 25 .252 .305 .413 92 322 42 81 23 1 9 37 21 67 3 2
Kurt Suzuki c 24 .248 .325 .369 117 404 50 100 22 0 9 55 42 67 1 1
J.D. Closser# c 28 .232 .320 .384 104 323 35 75 17 1 10 40 41 60 2 2
Brant Colamarino* 1b 27 .239 .300 .402 123 443 44 106 27 3 13 59 34 100 1 1
Jeff DaVanon# cf 34 .249 .343 .341 72 173 28 43 8 1 2 15 25 34 6 4
Mark Kotsay* cf 32 .260 .317 .369 103 412 47 107 22 1 7 49 34 39 3 2
Kevin Melillo* 2b 26 .239 .318 .364 109 385 49 92 20 2 8 40 42 74 7 5
Bobby Crosby ss 28 .240 .305 .353 94 354 48 85 17 1 7 34 32 65 7 1
Danny Putnam* lf 25 .236 .298 .363 90 314 38 74 20 1 6 39 25 59 1 2
Brian Snyder 2b 26 .215 .317 .317 108 344 41 74 18 1 5 33 50 95 0 0
J.J. Furmaniak ss 28 .236 .297 .341 124 428 47 101 17 2 8 36 32 97 10 5
Javier Herrera cf 23 .233 .288 .357 86 305 44 71 17 0 7 34 19 84 11 6
Lou Merloni 3b 37 .239 .307 .302 88 301 25 72 13 0 2 22 25 42 0 1
Jason Stokes 1b 26 .208 .281 .339 50 168 18 35 8 1 4 16 17 70 1 1
Antonio Perez 3b 28 .227 .288 .310 77 203 19 46 9 1 2 16 15 51 5 2
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cust* Pr Pr Pr
Swisher# Fr Av Pr Av
Johnson* Av
Buck* Av Av
Barton* Av Pr
Chavez* Av
Denorfia Av Fr Av
Piedra* Av Av Av
Ellis Ex
Hannahan* Vg Vg Vg
Bowen# Fr
Brown Fr Fr Pr
Stewart Av Pr
Spanos Fr Fr
Scutaro Vg Av Fr
Piazza Pr Pr
Murphy Av Av Fr
Suzuki Fr
Closser# Av Av
Colamarino* Av Fr
DaVanon# Av Fr Av
Kotsay* Av Av
Melillo* Av Av
Crosby Vg
Putnam* Fr Fr Fr
Snyder Av Av
Furmaniak Fr Av Fr
Herrera Vg Av Vg
Merloni Vg Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr
Stokes Av
Perez Av Av Av
Player Spotlight - Daric Barton
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .299 .392 .494 147 539 90 161 49 4 16 80 78 57 4 1
Mean .280 .369 .440 137 504 73 141 42 3 11 62 68 58 3 2
Pessimistic (15%) .255 .334 .381 121 443 54 113 31 2 7 41 51 58 2 2
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ed Bouchee, Ron Fairly
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Rich Harden 26 2.74 8 3 18 15 92.0 73 28 6 33 91
Huston Street 24 2.92 6 2 68 0 71.0 61 23 6 12 74
Justin Duchscherer 30 3.05 5 2 54 0 65.0 60 22 6 14 60
Kiko Calero 33 3.74 3 2 58 0 53.0 50 22 4 21 48
Danny Haren 27 3.91 14 11 34 34 221.0 224 96 29 47 174
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.04 -----------------------------------------------
Santiago Casilla 28 4.17 3 3 61 0 69.0 65 32 8 27 58
Jerry Blevins* 24 4.21 5 5 59 0 77.0 85 36 9 19 55
Joe Blanton 27 4.22 13 12 33 33 211.0 228 99 21 52 121
Ruddy Lugo 28 4.32 4 4 60 0 77.0 78 37 5 41 45
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.39 -----------------------------------------------
Alan Embree* 38 4.42 2 3 65 0 57.0 60 28 6 17 41
Andrew Brown 27 4.50 5 5 62 0 82.0 81 41 10 33 66
Chad Gaudin 25 4.55 11 11 32 32 190.0 197 96 20 75 137
Ron Flores* 28 4.58 4 4 56 0 59.0 62 30 8 25 39
Lenny Dinardo* 28 4.62 6 7 30 18 111.0 123 57 11 44 59
Brad Halsey* 27 4.64 7 8 38 18 130.0 148 67 14 42 63
Jason Windsor 25 4.96 7 9 23 23 136.0 155 75 19 42 86
Colby Lewis 28 4.97 6 7 34 20 143.0 164 79 20 38 74
Dallas Braden* 24 5.01 6 9 34 27 151.0 167 84 21 42 108
Julio Manon 35 5.37 1 2 53 0 52.0 54 31 9 31 46
Brad Knox 26 5.57 6 10 25 24 147.0 177 91 22 51 58
Jose Garcia 23 5.58 8 10 26 22 129.0 147 80 23 45 88
David Shafer 26 5.61 2 3 54 0 61.0 69 38 10 26 37
Shawn Kohn 28 5.64 2 4 54 1 83.0 94 52 16 27 57
Mike Bumatay* 28 5.82 2 4 58 0 65.0 71 42 9 42 50
Dan Meyer* 26 5.95 3 7 24 21 115.0 134 76 21 46 63
Shane Komine 27 6.06 6 12 25 23 141.0 173 95 29 44 63
Danny Borrell* 29 6.31 2 5 18 13 77.0 91 54 18 29 49
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Danny Haren
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.93 18 7 34 34 230 207 75 22 42 204
Mean 3.91 14 11 34 34 221 224 96 29 47 174
Pessimistic (15%) 4.73 10 11 28 28 179 199 94 28 45 127
Top Near-Age Comps: Mike Mussina, Don Newcombe
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Daric Barton* 22 .280 .369 .440 137 504 73 141 42 3 11 62 68 58 3 2
Kiko Calero 33 3.74 3 2 58 0 53.0 50 22 4 21 48
Danny Haren 27 3.91 14 11 34 34 221.0 224 96 29 47 174
Mark Mulder* 30 5.06 7 11 24 24 144.0 162 81 18 59 79
...ouchies...
Daric Barton* 22 .280 .369 .440 137 504 73 141 42 3 11 62 68 58 3 2
Kiko Calero 33 3.74 3 2 58 0 53.0 50 22 4 21 48
Danny Haren 27 3.91 14 11 34 34 221.0 224 96 29 47 174
Mark Mulder* 30 5.06 7 11 24 24 144.0 162 81 18 59 79
...ouchies...
Why is Jeremy Brown listed as a 1b? Seems like a perfect backup c for a team with a good defensive starting catcher, not that any such teams come to mind readily. If you have to pay $50K to the A's in the Rule 5 draft, then so be it, because Brown's still making league minimum.
That might even underrate him--he was fifth in OPS+ if you use one-year park factors.
Travis Buck* rf 23 .283 .360 .458
That's a pretty optimistic looking projection for Johnson. It would require him to set career highs in OBP and SLG. His career high OBP was 355 in 2005, career high in SLG was 451, also in 2005.
The projection for Buck OTOH, looks somewhat pessimistic.
are different than people who have been declaring 15+ starts for Harden (over roughly the same time period) how?
I would really rather this be constructed as: "How are they different than people ...?" Also, no more starting posts with "Um ..." And "Really?" has worn very thin, too.
Other than that, I love you guys.
You do. On the other hand, he was brutal with the glove there - I'm surprised he's gotten as good as he has over at third (not even faint praise).
As for his walk rate as a pro, it's been pretty consistent, apart from this season's collapse.
Posts that start with "So-and-so says hi" say hi.
Also people saying "I don't know if you're joking, but..." -- that's sometimes the most condescending thing you can possibly say.
Buck RF
Barton 1B
Bonds DH
Cust LF
Swisher CF
Chavez 3B
Ellis 2B
Crosby SS
Suzuki C
In late innnings, after Cust gets his 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 SOs, Denorfia goes to CF with Swish going to left. Denorfia would start against lefties. If Crosby and Chavez both could hit Chavez' ZIPS and assuming reasonable contributions from Buck and Suzuki, I wonder if this team doesn't make the playoffs. That Barton projection looks low.
My main question: Even if it's accepted that that particular approach optimizes offensive performance, is it possible/likely that fans would grow tired of it since it's not aesthetically pleasing? Granted, Jack Cust's main job isn't to entertain the fans. It's to help win ballgames. But if somehow you had nine Jack Custs, you'd be looking at games that lasted longer than Bonzo's live versions of "Moby Dick."
Granted, one way for pitchers to control this is to throw more strikes. And to take less time between pitches. And it wouldn't hurt if the commercial breaks were a little shorter.
And, obviously, I'd rather watch a 4:19 baseball game than a crisply played NBA or NHL game. Baseball's the doo-doo.
Just typing out loud ...
(Fun fact: Reggie Willits led the majors in P/PA in 2007.)
I would guess that fans would grow tired of this approach, but the facts don't back that up. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have had offenses built around this sort of approach and in both cases their games drag on forever. But both have ridiculously good attendance and TV ratings. Fans never get tired of winning, even "boring" winning.
...ouchies...
But then there's
Dan Meyer* 26 5.95 3 7 24 21 115.0 134 76 21 46 63
He doesn't have that many non-HR hits to begin with.
He's projected to hit about .410 on-contact here, which is lower than his rate so far in limited MLB action (.420). In the minors it was slightly higher at .424, but I have no idea how that should translate. I'm still more skeptical of the Howard projection in this regard.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA200308080.shtml (1:53)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK200305060.shtml (1:49)
Cust has an extreme type of approach that results in a very high BABIP but sacrifices BIP - it's as simple as that. Hell, his big season actually brought his line drive percentage in the majors from his 150 PA cups of coffee down!
"So-and-so says hi""Fixed" say hi.Fixed.
Yeah, those people are about as annoying as the lemming-like rats who jump off the ship when it's going down and swim away, to not be heard from again for a while.
In any event, I'll go and make the declaration now (months ahead of time) that if they can't get a full season of a healthy Harden, this team won't be that great next year either. They weren't really as bad as their record this season, but by now I would think that it would be pretty obvious to just about everyone that there's nothing particularly special about this group.
are different than people who have been declaring 15+ starts for Harden (over roughly the same time period) how?
So how many times are you going to make posts like this before you plan on R'ing TFD?
It does have some randomness to it, but not nearly as much as pitchers.
I know, it's so tiresome. When I did projections, no matter how much I stressed that predicting playing time accurately was so far beyond the realm of what you could do statistically, people would still complain about assigning all those at bats to Greg LaRocca or something.
Dan should put that disclaimer on every one of these posts. Oh that's right, he does.
Maybe someone did that, but the list in #36 of that thread is apples to apples. I just happen to think on-contact BA for all or nothing hitters is kind of interesting, and I haven't seen much on it. I didn't mean to make some big thing out of Howard's projection.
The big questions: Who are the 4th and 5th starters?
What happens at short?
Is Chris Denorfia going to be healthy and ready for CF? If not, then who?
Who will the A's bring in? My vote is for Fukudome, but the chances of that are approaching zero.
I'm optimistic about the team. Chavvy finally got the surgery he obviously needed. The offense finally bottomed out and looks ready for a resurgence. The Angels should still be heavy favorites next year, but Oakland should be strong enough to challenge.
Also, I like how Bowen and Brown are projected to just kill Suzuki. That'll also be interesting to watch play out.
Dan's not claiming that he can predict how much Haren's going to pitch. In fact he's explicitly said he can't (or at least won't).
I used to just give all hitters (non-catchers) 640 PAs and all starting pitchers 800 BFP. That made everything really clear, but Dan is doing more by least acknowledging Haren's injury problems in the projection.
You're right on Thome, I miscalculated. Manny Ramirez's is .342. Michael Young is at .341. It's obviously still early and this will probably come down, but Miguel Cabrera's is .358.
So yeah they're out there and so it isn't totally crazy to have Cust's up in that range.
OOPS! Higginson went in the tank the next year with a .261 HBIP and Abreu cut his strikeout rate and still posted a HBIP rate of .395. For their careers, Higginson was .293 and Abreu's is .356. Well at least I didn't trade him for Kevin Stocker.
I agree with this. That was basically the situation with this season's A's team as well.
I wouldn't say that Bowen or Brown (projected here as a 1B, not as a C - downgrade the numbers slightly accordingly) are killing Suzuki - his offensive projections aren't that much worse than theirs. Add to that Suzuki's better arm (I'd grade it as Average, with the potential to be a Vg over time), youth, and already having the job - and I'd guess he'd keep it.
Post #6 in this thread contradicts this.
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