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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies aren't a hard team to get a handle on. Impressive front-line talent of Howard, Utley, Burrell, Rollins, and Hamels, and very poor depth. The team unfortunately has let a couple of gaping holes just hang out there because of their impressive front-line talent, most notably giving actually having Abraham Nunez and Jose Mesa play baseball. The front-line talent plus an excellent season by Rowand (and a good one by Victorino thanks to some swanky defense in right) was enough to give the team a great offense and make a final charge to the playoffs despite a rather bad pitching staff. There's not much hope on the farm, either - it's bone dry and there's very little organizational depth anywhere.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Ryan Howard* 1b 28 .294 .406 .622 149 537 97 158 26 0 50 148 100 177 0 0
Chase Utley* 2b 29 .299 .381 .515 147 582 109 174 40 4 26 108 62 104 12 3
Pat Burrell lf 31 .249 .377 .479 141 461 71 115 22 0 28 103 94 128 0 0
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .282 .360 .485 ------------------------------------------
Jimmy Rollins# ss 29 .282 .336 .485 159 695 128 196 40 13 25 87 53 82 33 5
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .281 .352 .466 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .280 .349 .468 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .277 .346 .458 ------------------------------------------
Jayson Werth rf 29 .260 .359 .417 103 319 51 83 16 2 10 52 46 102 8 2
Aaron Rowand cf 30 .276 .339 .444 143 536 80 148 35 2 17 73 34 106 7 3
Shane Victorino# rf 27 .277 .336 .440 142 452 78 125 23 6 13 57 33 63 20 4
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .275 .339 .435 ------------------------------------------
Carlos Ruiz c 29 .273 .341 .425 117 388 42 106 25 2 10 60 36 52 3 1
Tadahito Iguchi 2b 33 .274 .351 .400 127 475 72 130 24 3 10 55 55 98 9 3
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .279 .340 .419 ------------------------------------------
Greg Dobbs* 3b 29 .283 .337 .426 124 343 44 97 18 2 9 54 27 55 5 3
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .277 .332 .412 ------------------------------------------
Wes Helms 3b 32 .265 .324 .420 108 226 21 60 15 1 6 36 17 49 0 0
Rod Barajas c 32 .253 .308 .425 92 308 39 78 17 0 12 40 21 53 0 0
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .263 .324 .414 ------------------------------------------
T.J. Bohn rf 28 .254 .311 .376 101 346 46 88 19 1 7 37 26 78 10 4
Jason Jaramillo# c 25 .248 .313 .363 117 411 40 102 19 2 8 53 37 76 0 1
Jeremy Slayden* rf 25 .240 .301 .374 103 358 38 86 20 2 8 50 28 91 2 1
Michael Costanzo* 3b 24 .229 .304 .373 134 475 46 109 24 1 14 61 45 153 0 1
Pete LaForest* c 30 .214 .298 .380 100 313 31 67 13 0 13 42 36 110 1 1
Brennan King 3b 27 .248 .296 .375 110 403 36 100 19 1 10 48 25 73 1 0
Pedro Swann* rf 37 .235 .285 .374 85 289 31 68 17 1 7 37 18 78 2 1
Michael Garciaparra ss 25 .246 .321 .318 85 280 35 69 9 1 3 25 25 53 4 3
Michael Bourn* lf 25 .249 .310 .330 136 458 71 114 13 6 4 34 38 100 22 8
Dusty Wathan 1b 34 .238 .312 .324 69 210 21 50 9 0 3 23 15 42 0 0
Chris Coste c 35 .239 .285 .366 98 331 36 79 15 0 9 50 17 61 0 1
Juan Tejeda 1b 26 .236 .288 .365 105 351 33 83 16 1 9 52 23 68 1 2
Matt Padgett* rf 30 .235 .283 .363 89 306 26 72 16 1 7 34 19 93 0 0
Chris Roberson cf 28 .256 .298 .345 120 403 54 103 17 2 5 38 22 71 11 6
Jim Rushford* lf 34 .241 .300 .319 102 348 28 84 18 0 3 36 24 34 1 0
Javon Moran cf 25 .255 .309 .327 84 321 46 82 13 2 2 15 21 65 12 9
Gookie Dawkins 2b 29 .242 .289 .349 102 355 38 86 18 1 6 34 22 79 5 4
Mike Spidale lf 26 .251 .295 .305 100 371 43 93 11 3 1 26 18 41 11 4
Abraham Nunez# 3b 32 .232 .310 .281 115 285 36 66 9 1 1 26 30 49 1 0
Danny Sandoval ss 29 .248 .281 .311 108 367 31 91 14 0 3 34 14 49 3 2
Greg Golson cf 22 .217 .245 .330 123 488 52 106 21 2 10 42 15 165 16 7
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Howard* Fr
Utley* Vg Vg
Burrell Fr
Rollins# Av
Werth Av Vg
Rowand Av
Victorino# Vg Av Ex
Ruiz Fr
Iguchi Av
Dobbs* Av Pr Fr Fr
Helms Av Fr
Barajas Av
Bohn Vg Fr Vg
Jaramillo# Vg
Slayden* Av Av
Costanzo* Av
LaForest* Av Av Fr
King Av
Swann* Pr Pr
Garciaparra Av Fr
Bourn* Vg Av Vg
Wathan Av Av
Coste Pr Av
Tejeda Pr
Padgett* Av Fr Pr
Roberson Av Av Av
Rushford* Fr Fr Fr
Moran Av Av Av
Dawkins Vg Av Pr
Spidale Vg Av Vg
Nunez# Av Vg Av
Sandoval Av Av Av
Golson Av Av
Player Spotlight - Chase Utley
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .325 .413 .588 154 609 133 198 49 6 33 141 71 99 14 2
Mean .299 .381 .515 147 582 109 174 40 4 26 108 62 104 12 3
Pessimistic (15%) .278 .350 .461 129 510 84 142 32 2 19 77 50 100 7 3
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Charlie Gehringer, Lou Whitaker
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Brett Myers 27 3.31 5 3 80 0 98.0 86 36 13 30 107
Tom Gordon 40 3.60 5 2 60 0 60.0 54 24 8 20 60
Cole Hamels* 24 3.66 14 7 31 31 192.0 178 78 24 50 185
Geoff Geary 31 3.94 5 3 70 0 89.0 95 39 8 24 57
Mike Zagurski* 25 4.00 4 2 45 0 63.0 63 28 5 24 51
J.C. Romero* 32 4.17 3 2 70 0 54.0 51 25 5 36 42
Julio Mateo 30 4.17 5 4 51 0 69.0 73 32 10 15 43
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.28 -----------------------------------------------
Freddy Garcia 32 4.41 11 9 29 29 190.0 202 93 24 48 138
Clay Condrey 32 4.44 4 3 52 0 73.0 83 36 6 22 35
Ryan Madson 27 4.44 3 4 65 0 79.0 83 39 10 31 61
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.69 -----------------------------------------------
Kyle Lohse 29 4.78 10 10 34 29 177.0 197 94 22 54 109
Jon Lieber 38 4.85 10 11 27 27 165.0 188 89 26 34 104
Kyle Kendrick 23 4.91 12 12 31 31 196.0 220 107 27 50 94
Jamie Moyer* 45 4.96 11 12 31 31 196.0 221 108 29 59 117
Fabio Castro* 23 5.02 5 5 43 8 86.0 87 48 13 42 64
Yoel Hernandez 28 5.03 4 4 43 0 59.0 65 33 7 25 43
Matt Smith* 29 5.16 3 3 45 4 68.0 68 39 11 36 53
Francisco Rosario 27 5.19 3 4 32 13 85.0 92 49 14 35 68
Antonio Alfonseca 36 5.23 2 3 50 0 43.0 51 25 3 23 19
Jose Mesa 42 5.40 2 3 59 0 55.0 61 33 9 29 31
Joshua Outman* 23 5.41 8 12 28 27 163.0 180 98 22 86 113
John Ennis 28 5.46 3 5 45 5 84.0 97 51 14 32 63
Jason Anderson 29 5.47 3 4 53 1 74.0 85 45 12 27 49
Ryan Cameron 30 5.51 2 4 53 2 80.0 87 49 13 39 62
Adam Eaton 30 5.53 8 11 29 28 153.0 175 94 23 61 95
Scott Mathieson 24 5.59 6 10 26 26 153.0 171 95 31 53 116
J.D. Durbin 26 5.59 6 8 26 21 124.0 137 77 18 60 86
Landon Jacobsen 29 5.60 8 11 26 24 143.0 171 89 17 67 59
James Happ* 25 5.61 6 9 26 25 138.0 154 86 24 59 103
Bubba Nelson 26 5.85 5 7 45 9 97.0 110 63 19 46 67
Andrew Carpenter 23 5.92 9 14 27 24 152.0 185 100 31 45 86
Carlos Carrasco 21 6.00 7 13 29 28 159.0 185 106 30 75 86
Joe Bisenius 25 6.12 4 6 49 1 78.0 90 53 15 39 54
Eude Brito* 29 6.15 5 9 30 20 120.0 142 82 23 61 70
Anderson Garcia 27 6.19 3 7 51 1 80.0 99 55 15 25 45
Zach Segovia 25 6.29 7 14 26 26 156.0 201 109 29 51 62
Matt Childers 29 6.29 3 7 32 14 103.0 130 72 21 31 56
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Cole Hamels
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.93 18 5 34 34 221 186 72 21 52 231
Mean 3.66 14 7 31 31 192 178 78 24 50 185
Pessimistic (15%) 4.68 9 9 26 26 154 158 80 25 49 140
Top Near-Age Comps: Johnny Podres, Vida Blue
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 24, 2007 at 07:56 PM | 62 comment(s)
Related News: Philadelphia, ZIPS
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Also, how many teams have a player with the big club appear so far down the ZiPS list? Abraham Nunez is really, really bad.
Also it's great to see the Alfomesa twins right next to each other. Though somewhat less great to see them projected with better ERAs than every single one of the Phillies' pitching prospects who are supposedly very close to the majors.
Gotta go for now...going to look at this again tomorrow.
Also I did not realize that Happ, Bisenius and Segovia were already 25. Well, at least we didn't trade Gio Gonzalez's entire career for one year of a guy who had no value at all and whose career might be over.
Model Dictator Fabio Castro to the rotation?
So, those projected to be starters if they are in the majors:
<pre>Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Cole Hamels* 24 3.66 14 7 31 31 192.0 178 78 24 50 185
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.28 -----------------------------------------------
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.69 -----------------------------------------------
Kyle Kendrick 23 4.91 12 12 31 31 196.0 220 107 27 50 94
Jamie Moyer* 45 4.96 11 12 31 31 196.0 221 108 29 59 117
Joshua Outman* 23 5.41 8 12 28 27 163.0 180 98 22 86 113
Adam Eaton 30 5.53 8 11 29 28 153.0 175 94 23 61 95
Scott Mathieson 24 5.59 6 10 26 26 153.0 171 95 31 53 116
J.D. Durbin 26 5.59 6 8 26 21 124.0 137 77 18 60 86
Landon Jacobsen 29 5.60 8 11 26 24 143.0 171 89 17 67 59
James Happ* 25 5.61 6 9 26 25 138.0 154 86 24 59 103
Andrew Carpenter 23 5.92 9 14 27 24 152.0 185 100 31 45 86
Carlos Carrasco 21 6.00 7 13 29 28 159.0 185 106 30 75 86
Zach Segovia 25 6.29 7 14 26 26 156.0 201 109 29 51 62
</pre>
Yeah, that might be a problem.
On the other hand, I don't know why Mathieson is predicted to have such a bad ERA.
On the projection disk, they'll get both.
It surprises me somewhat to learn that although this projection is far below what he accomplished in 2007 and 2004, it's actually better than what he accomplished in any of the other 5 years of his career.
And with that I note that 2004 and 2007 were the two seasons after which he signed new contracts.
And with that I predict that he will be significantly overpaid for his performance in the next three or four years.
A little off the wall request, does that Zips contraption give you any kind of numbers for Greg Jacobs, the pitcher turned outfielder, who hit very well at Reading last season. If Rowand is gone, I'd like the Phils to have a Chris Duncan/Ryan Church type guy to throw into the mix with Victorino and Werth in CF-RF and while Jacobs might be a long shot, I'm curious what the numbers say.
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You can see individual career at Fangraph and Howard has a career .353 BABIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B
Or even getting lucky with your existing players. If Wes Helms had hit in 2007 like he'd hit in 2006, the Phillies would have won comfortably. Ditto if the bullpen had been a strength, which is often a complete crapshoot.
Reading that line, you can almost hear the splash of cold water.
And with that I note that 2004 and 2007 were the two seasons after which he signed new contracts.
Amazing ... you won't hear much about that in the media, will you? If it were J.D. Drew though ...
Wow, those are some bad starting options. I can't see how they can keep Myers in the pen, unless they know something health-wise that would prevent him from starting.
If you are the Phillies GM, do you offer Howard a contract to buy out his arb and FA years, or just pay him year by year for arb, and bet that he doesn't age too well.
With their barren system, the Phillies window of opportunity doesn't look too big, so I might do the latter and cash Howard in for some premo prospects in a year or two.
The problem is that of those 6, Garcia won't be back and will miss at least another half a season with a rather serious labrum tear, and neither Lieber or Lohse are expected back. And a 4th one turns 45 in a month.
It's not that confusing....one's a left handed head-case who doesn't pitch well, and one is a right handed head-case who doesn't pitch well.
Dan seems to be distancing himself from his "age 45" adjustment algorithm. He must've watched Moyer pitch in the second half.
I don't think JD Durbin and JC Romero should be allowed to play for the same team. It's too confusing.
Think of the fun when J.A. Happ comes up! Of course, if you're like me, you constantly call him A.J. Happ ... so I guess being perpetually confused can help reduce the confusion, sort of.
Optimistic
Rowand: 301/374/500
Victorino: 297/365/496
Pessimistic
Rowand: 259/312/398
Victorino: 253/305/382
You're disregarding my "assuming Garcia, Lieber and Lohse leave". That leaves three such starters. One of whom is 45 and falls off a cliff after 70 pitches.
Just imagine if Dan had written "J.A. Happ", which is what I've always read, instead of "James Happ"!
Make sure that you don't think of this guy, either.
Here's what I get, career for seasons after 1945 min 500 ABs (this doesn't include 2007 data):
playerID_ ConAvg ABshowarry01 0.4436 0932
ramirma02 0.4032 6575
bayja01__ 0.4021 1667
thomeji01 0.4013 6409
cabremi01 0.3985 2106
penawi01_ 0.3970 1106
hafnetr01 0.3951 1775
vaughmo01 0.3948 5532
abreubo01 0.3895 5276
edmonji01 0.3889 5907
So howard was a freakish historical outlier going into this year (and he hit .430 on contact in 2007). interesting how all of those guys are active except mo vaughn - maybe the mets need a new first baseman?
Baseball America likes him, ranking him among the Top 20 prospects in the Eastern (AA) league
Bourn also has the potential to become Shane Victorino
The system is weak but not completely dry
Remember that the core of this team came from the farm
I'll give the Phillies farm system credit for getting position players ready for the majors. Guys like Ruiz and Bourn came along seamlessly and pretty much played up to their talents. So did Chris Coste but I don't think the farm system can take credit there. :)
That's actually what I was looking for. It seems to me that on-contact BA would be better suited for someone like Howard (and maybe hitters in general) since he has relatively few non-HR hits. Maybe I'm off-base here.
Kyle, thanks for doing that. I did download the database you referred to just now, but apparently sorting it is going to make my computer explode.
I'm imagining you writing "players" there, and then remembering Gavin Floyd, and changing it to "position players".
Guys like Ruiz and Bourn came along seamlessly and pretty much played up to their talents.
Somehow I didn't realize that the average catcher nowadays is such an unimpressive hitter that Ruiz has actually not been a disappointment.
Anyway, the farm system has no solution for the two obvious holes - 3B and starting pitching. Combined with the lack of holes anywhere else (assuming both Dobbs and Werth return, although I thought they were both free agents right now, so why should we assume that) - I hope free agency works better than it did last off-season. Goodbye Rowand.
And Homer Bailey.
Not to be a Negative Nate, but last I heard Costanzo was down in AA striking out once every three ups and making an error once every three games. Looking him up now ... wow, that's quite the power development ... but geez, I intended one K per 3 ups to be an exaggeration. The front office is really hitting the Kyle Kendrick crackpipe heavy if they think he can bring that game straight up from AA and be a contributor.
I'm really surprised by how bad Michael Bourn's projection is.
I don't know ... Dan uses, what, the last three years? In that time, Bourn has about 100 at bats in AAA last August and about 80 at bats spread over three months in the middle of this season that indicate he can hit major league pitching.
Could be. But then, even by the standards of arb-eligible players, Rowand wasn't overpaid in the last three years -- if anything rather underpaid at 2/3.25/4.35.
Rowand's worth is entirely tied up in how good he really is defensively. If he's just average as Dan rates him above, then in combo with his roughly average or just above bat for his position, he's a roughly average CF. Of course roughly average (or worse) CFs were getting $9-10 M last year, so $12 M for Rowand would be perfectly reasonable. And we're only talking about paying for his age 30-33 seasons, not generally a period of dramatic decline.
And of course most folks consider Rowand to be way above average defensively.
Of course from the Phils perspective, I'd let Rowand go, shift Victorino to CF and find a real RF. But if I was a team that needed a CF, I'd probably be a lot more interested in Rowand at his price than Jones/Hunter at their prices. I still expect Rowand to be one of the bargains of the offseason -- although Dan's average defensive rating for him gives me pause.
No, you've given the formula for BABIP.
What was asked for (and is more interesting IMHO) is on-contact BA, which does include HR and Kyle's list looks correct (though I'd never noticed Jason Bay before). The all-time leader is Ruth (408 off the top of my head) and he also is the all-time leader in SLG on-contact (810 or so). Thome is close, Manny falls a bit short on SLG.
Howard's numbers so far rank among the best seasons of all time and so his career numbers are simply off the charts. They need to be to be successful with that K-rate. The question is whether we are seeing an historic level of "true talent" or just a cluster of outstanding seasons (Ruth, Sosa, Thome, McGwire, Bonds and some others have had similar seasons) which will be followed by more typical seasons pulling his career numbers back to the historical "norm." Howard's unusual career arc means that his career numbers will consist only of prime and (presumably) decline and therefore no early career struggles also bringing his ML numbers down, so he's probably a good bet to end up the all-time leader.
And yes, both the career and seasons list are dominated by contemporary players. However, so is the list of K/AB (Howard is entering Rob Deer territory). It's a different style of hitting these days. But if you look at the few older players with K-rates which are similar, you'll find similar sorts of on-contact numbers (and some great players up until about 1 K per 4 or so ... below that it gets more dicey). This suggests trading strikeouts for power is a good tradeoff and that this is what today's players have done. Unfortunately, there's substantial selection bias here -- if you K at these rates and don't kill the ball on-contact, your won't hit well enough to stay in the majors. (It's also a huge help if you walk a lot) For example, even with near historic on-contact numbers, Wily Mo Pena is a career 259/472 hitter and since he doesn't walk much and is poor defensively, he's a below-average corner OF.
Anyway, I've been saying for some time, when discussing someone like Pena when they have these amazing on-contact seasons, that you can't expect them to outhit 400/800 on-contact and that at a 1 per 3 or 1 per 3.3 AB K-rate, that's not really all that amazingly productive. And of course, to hit 400/800, they only have to be as good as Ruth and nobody should be projected to even be that good. Mr. Howard is causing me to start questioning that.
Still, this season, BJ Upton K'd 1 per 3.1 AB. On-contact, he hit 444/753. He ain't doing that on a regular basis and he needs to cut down on his Ks. In the first half of the year, he was hitting nearly 500 on-contact. His overall 2nd half numbers of 285/379/482 might be sustainable though that's still 415/702.
#53 -- Since Iguchi can really only play 2B, the Phils have no need for Iguchi. He was a great help when Utley was down though.
Helms had a .390 BABIP in 2006. Who, in their right minds, would have expected him to put up a 329/390/575 line in 07.
I'll change the Myers projection if it looks like he's going to start again.
Dan, is this projection available anywhere. Thanks.
Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2008
Carrasco, Cardenas, Outman are 1, 2, 3
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