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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates
Not the prettiest projections in the world, but did anyone really expect otherwise? It's unfair to put any blame on the recently hired Frank Coonelly, but considering how competitive baseball is, this seems pretty much what one should expect from a team that places far more importance on maximizing their corporate welfare dole than maximizing anything positive that's baseball-related.A few unexpected question marks have arisen since the end of 2006 - while the Pirates have to be happy that Gorzelanny and Snell were solid pitchers, I don't think they wanted to be answering question marks about the play of Jason Bay or Zach Duke right now. Again, I really want to give Coonelly a chance, but it's hard to give the organization as a whole the benefit of the doubt given the mismanagement from top to bottom, to injury management to coaching to a lack of a coherent plan centered on winning games of baseball. Littlefield may be gone, but I don't think that'll be enough as long as the surname "Nutting" appears in the chain of command.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Jason Bay lf 29 .265 .361 .478 154 565 92 150 32 2 28 89 81 149 9 0
Josh Phelps 1b 30 .292 .352 .483 115 373 35 109 22 2 15 57 30 89 2 1
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .284 .359 .470 ------------------------------------------
Adam LaRoche* 1b 28 .272 .348 .492 148 514 75 140 38 0 25 84 58 115 0 2
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .282 .351 .448 ------------------------------------------
Ryan Doumit# c 27 .276 .344 .463 107 322 45 89 22 1 12 47 26 73 1 3
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .282 .348 .450 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .279 .345 .445 ------------------------------------------
Steven Pearce 1b 25 .267 .324 .462 139 472 55 126 37 2 17 70 35 86 7 5
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .276 .338 .442 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .281 .339 .411 ------------------------------------------
Freddy Sanchez 2b 30 .298 .340 .415 146 557 71 166 40 2 7 66 31 58 0 2
Xavier Nady rf 29 .259 .319 .449 117 390 50 101 21 1 17 64 25 92 1 0
Nate McLouth* cf 26 .259 .329 .415 138 378 67 98 22 2 11 34 35 74 17 3
Jose Bautista 3b 27 .249 .329 .415 146 523 71 130 32 2 17 62 57 113 4 3
Kevin Thompson cf 28 .252 .335 .404 112 381 54 96 26 4 8 40 45 81 15 7
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .279 .332 .404 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .263 .322 .397 ------------------------------------------
Adam Boeve rf 28 .245 .326 .372 111 363 40 89 17 1 9 38 38 116 11 5
Chris Duffy* cf 28 .267 .319 .372 92 333 49 89 15 4 4 27 20 65 14 5
Ronny Paulino c 27 .263 .321 .366 128 437 48 115 21 0 8 46 36 80 1 1
Yurendell de Caster 1b 28 .251 .325 .376 114 378 33 95 21 1 8 39 37 92 5 6
Russ Johnson 3b 35 .241 .329 .359 88 290 29 70 17 1 5 25 37 42 1 2
Jose Castillo 2b 27 .259 .307 .382 119 398 44 103 20 1 9 48 25 74 2 2
Brian Bixler ss 25 .257 .322 .345 128 455 58 117 22 3 4 35 33 125 14 5
Jack Wilson ss 30 .261 .313 .361 141 518 62 135 24 2 8 42 36 54 2 4
Mike Ryan* lf 30 .237 .284 .383 105 316 27 75 15 2 9 33 21 78 0 1
Chris Aguila rf 29 .255 .297 .359 92 259 28 66 13 1 4 26 15 60 3 2
Brad Eldred 1b 27 .211 .264 .423 104 355 37 75 16 1 19 46 21 119 4 2
Andrew McCutchen cf 21 .239 .293 .347 126 461 52 110 21 1 9 40 33 100 12 5
Shelby Ford# 2b 23 .236 .293 .340 82 297 38 70 18 2 3 29 16 69 5 2
Neil Walker# 3b 22 .229 .291 .343 122 420 48 96 22 1 8 39 35 77 5 3
Nyjer Morgan* cf 27 .264 .319 .326 93 341 50 90 10 4 1 19 21 60 24 14
Luis Ordaz 2b 32 .259 .291 .333 70 228 20 59 12 1 1 18 10 37 3 2
Cesar Izturis# ss 28 .252 .296 .318 95 330 31 83 17 1 1 21 19 24 4 4
Javier Guzman ss 24 .250 .285 .334 107 380 39 95 16 2 4 28 16 56 7 5
Peter Bergeron* cf 30 .234 .295 .322 94 329 36 77 15 1 4 23 27 67 3 5
Tripper Johnson 3b 26 .221 .283 .324 121 420 42 93 23 1 6 38 33 74 5 3
Carlos Maldonado c 29 .217 .284 .307 80 244 18 53 10 0 4 23 21 60 0 0
Jason Bowers 2b 32 .210 .279 .290 89 290 24 61 15 1 2 22 24 47 6 3
David Parrish c 29 .214 .270 .293 72 229 19 49 9 0 3 20 16 54 0 0
Jose Hernandez 3b 38 .212 .265 .306 89 255 20 54 9 0 5 27 16 75 0 1
Einar Diaz c 35 .202 .251 .276 54 163 12 33 9 0 1 15 8 17 1 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Bay Fr
Phelps Pr Fr
LaRoche* Vg
Doumit# Pr Av Pr
Pearce Av Av
Sanchez Fr Vg Fr
Nady Av Av Pr Av
McLouth* Vg Av Vg
Bautista Pr Fr Pr Pr
Thompson Av Fr Av
Boeve Fr Fr
Duffy* Vg
Paulino Av
de Caster Vg Pr Fr Fr Fr
Johnson Av Fr Av
Castillo Pr Av Pr
Bixler Av Av
Wilson Av
Ryan* Av Fr
Aguila Av Fr Fr
Eldred Av Pr
McCutchen Vg Vg
Ford# Av
Walker# Av Fr
Morgan* Vg Vg
Ordaz Vg Fr
Izturis# Av Vg Av
Guzman Av Fr Av Av
Bergeron* Av Fr Av
Johnson Fr
Maldonado Av
Bowers Av Av Fr
Parrish Av
Hernandez Vg Fr Fr Fr Av Av Av
Diaz Av
Player Spotlight - Adam LaRoche
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .293 .374 .547 162 563 94 165 45 1 32 111 70 111 0 1
Mean .272 .348 .492 148 514 75 140 38 0 25 84 58 115 0 2
Pessimistic (15%) .251 .319 .440 127 439 55 110 29 0 18 59 44 108 0 2
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Paul Sorrento, Greg Walker
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Matt Capps 24 3.40 7 5 90 0 90.0 89 34 9 15 68
Damaso Marte* 33 3.63 3 2 72 0 52.0 46 21 4 27 57
Salomon Torres 36 3.94 4 4 76 0 80.0 82 35 7 29 56
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.15 -----------------------------------------------
Tom Gorzelanny* 25 4.16 11 10 30 30 184.0 193 85 17 61 128
David Davidson* 24 4.16 3 3 49 0 80.0 79 37 7 36 60
Brian Rogers 25 4.44 2 3 57 0 79.0 82 39 10 26 63
Jesse Chavez 24 4.45 4 5 53 1 91.0 101 45 8 27 61
Ian Snell 26 4.48 10 11 32 30 191.0 202 95 27 62 157
AVERAGE STARTER -------------- 4.55 -----------------------------------------------
Zach Duke* 25 4.60 10 12 30 29 182.0 214 93 17 50 98
Franquelis Osoria 26 4.61 4 5 63 0 82.0 94 42 8 26 41
John Grabow* 29 4.65 2 3 70 0 62.0 65 32 8 25 51
Paul Maholm* 26 4.89 8 12 29 29 175.0 198 95 21 62 108
Shawn Chacon 30 4.91 6 8 41 17 121.0 130 66 15 62 78
Matt Morris 33 4.98 9 13 30 30 188.0 222 104 21 60 106
Bryan Bullington 27 5.01 7 12 26 24 142.0 163 79 17 50 72
Bret Prinz 31 5.08 1 1 33 0 39.0 43 22 6 17 24
Mark Corey 33 5.08 3 5 46 1 62.0 70 35 7 29 42
John Wasdin 35 5.14 4 7 30 13 105.0 121 60 16 33 71
Shane Youman* 28 5.15 6 10 34 17 131.0 153 75 14 52 66
Josh Sharpless 27 5.35 3 4 51 0 69.0 74 41 11 34 54
Juan Perez 27 5.42 1 3 59 0 78.0 87 47 10 40 53
Michael Tejera* 31 5.43 4 8 32 14 106.0 124 64 16 42 54
Jonah Bayliss 27 5.45 3 6 56 0 71.0 76 43 11 34 56
John van Benschoten 28 5.50 7 14 27 25 131.0 149 80 15 68 75
Tony Armas Jr. 30 5.63 5 10 28 22 120.0 139 75 19 53 73
Josh Shortslef* 26 5.64 6 11 24 24 134.0 165 84 17 46 6
Romulo Sanchez 24 5.92 2 6 53 1 76.0 90 50 15 31 45
Yoslan Herrera 27 5.98 5 11 26 26 131.0 172 87 18 34 51
Wardell Starling 25 6.04 5 13 30 24 143.0 180 96 24 53 64
Sean Burnett* 25 6.14 4 11 22 22 110.0 140 75 14 47 38
Dewon Brazelton 28 6.18 4 9 22 16 102.0 126 70 16 45 52
Jason Roach 32 6.37 3 10 31 18 123.0 158 87 20 43 47
Matt Peterson 26 6.41 3 10 37 16 118.0 145 84 23 59 61
Kevin Gryboski 34 6.58 2 5 48 0 52.0 68 38 7 29 22
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Ian Snell
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.44 14 9 34 34 220 205 84 22 62 205
Mean 4.48 10 11 32 30 191 202 95 27 62 157
Pessimistic (15%) 5.53 6 12 27 25 153 179 94 27 60 114
Top Near-Age Comps: Lynn McGlothen, Bob Welch
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Einar Diaz? Luis Ordaz? Jose Hernandez? Dewon Brazelton? Kevin Gryboski? Wow, this is the Siberia of baseball.
But even then, Bergeron didn't even make it AAA this year! I think he was completely unemployed until the Pirates signed him to Altoona at the end of July, after which he hit 240/289/298!
Well, he is a 273/344/476 career hitter in 1500 PA in the majors after all and the NL is a little weak the last couple of years. If the Yankees had instead taken Carlos Pena in the rule 5 draft and stuck him on the bench and the Devil Rays invite Josh Phelps to camp, it might have been the reverse (of course, Phelps wouldn't have hit as well as Pena did hit in 2007, but I think he'd be league average).
Much obliged - I always forget to check the indies.
If it's not too much trouble, Dan, do you mind doing quick projections on Jason Delaney, Luis Munoz, and Chris Hernandez? All three are fair-to-middling bets to spend some time in black and gold over the next year.
He played very well in 2006 - Toledo is one of the tougher hitting environments in AAA. I thought he was useless against righties or something (I think when he had trouble in Toronto he was only hitting lefties) but his career splits are nothing out of the ordinary. The total evidence says that this guy really is a pretty good hitter, and even slightly above average compared to 1st basemen. His defense isn't much, but he's one more bit of evidence why its foolish to overpay for a Paul Konerko or Richie Sexson.
re: Pena - He was sitting in Columbus, one phone call away from Yankee stadium, but that call never came as they gave most of the time to Andy Phillips. Bad as that looks now, its hard to blame them as Phillips hit very well for years in the minors, certainly better than Pena did in 2006. Easy to blame them for wasting 15 starts at !B that year on the likes of Aaron Guiel and Miguel Cairo.
I'm betting that he projects to more GIDP than average, and his 0/2 projection stealing bases will knock his run production down a bit, too, especially with regard to the average 2B.
I also think Sanchez will beat those projections pretty easily assuming he stays reasonably healthy.
According to the rules, he can't be the PTBNL.
As my mentor used to take great delight in pointing out, it's impossible to legislate against stupidity. Stupidity finds a way.
If anyone can remind me why I picked the Pirates to adopt once the Expos vanished, I think I've forgotten. Effects of a shame spiral?
I can only speak for myself, but I didn't really pay attention to the Nationals' projections. After all, they're the Nationals. However, the Pirates are always good for a few laughs, so I make sure to get in on Pirates' threads whenever possible.
C Paulino - By ZIPS, Doumit is a far better hitter, probably better by enough to justify inferior defense here. I don't know what it is Zips sees in these two, both are 27, Paulino has hit 338/392 and Doumit 330/426 so far. I'd give the edge to Paulino and keep Doumit in a utility role
1B: Platoon LaRoche and Phelps
2B: David Eckstein - I want someone who can get on base and play good defense. His arm is not a problem at 2B, and I doubt he'll cost so much that the Pirates can't afford him.
SS: Jack Wilson - He takes a lot of abuse, but he's a pretty good player. I have no idea what they were thinking with Izturis.
3B: Freddy Sanchez - Bautista is one of the worst 3B defenders in the game. Sanchez was excellent here in 2006. By the above ratings, he's very good at 3rd and only fair at 2nd. The Pirates have only one player who can both hit major league pitching and play strong defense at 2nd or 3rd, and that is Sanchez at 3rd. That's why I suggest they go outside the organization for a 2B and grab Eckstein
RF: Steve Pearce. Xavier Nady is not a bad player, he's about average. As a fielder, he's average at best. He's not likely to get any better. Pearce might be a very good hitter, but should at least be as good as Nady, who should be traded.
CF: Nate McLouth. This guy could really surprise people if they ever commit to him fulltime instead of whatever method the Pirates have used to decide playing time in center. He had a great August playing everyday, was hitting even better in September, and his reward was to have his playing time cut in half so they could play Morgan. McLouth gives you some pop, a decent number of walks, and has stolen 34 bases in 36 career attempts. I hope they give him a full season.
LF: Bay - He had a bad year. Don't worry about it. He's good, and he'll bounce back.
I honestly think this lineup could be pretty good.
Has he entered his defensive decline phase?
You know, I wonder where Morgan Ensberg will wind up. It would be cool if the Pirates could swing a deal for him without giving up too much.
It's too late, I've already called dibs on him. If you don't believe me, check the SD thread. It's actually possible that SD won't even tender Ensberg, so you'd have to give up nothing.
If I knew that ZIPS was right on these two, I'd go with Doumit. The actual performance gap between these two has been much less than that, and they are both the same age. That's why I stick with Paulino.
The actual defensive performance gap is pretty close, though, too. They have exactly the same CS%, for example...
Yea, but its still an improvement over last year.
Paulino's got the edge on defense, Doumit on offense, but neither difference is huge. All other things being equal I prefer defense behind the plate. I wouldn't argue if the new manager chose Doumit though.
Either way Pirates need to pick the players they think are best and stick with them through ups and downs. In center field they seem to keep giving the same gang of players 200-300 at bats, and at the end of the year still don't know if any would be capable of contributing fulltime.
have you seen the Giant's lineup?
Last year the Pirates were 12th
The Giants were 15th, ten runs ahead of the Nationals.
The Giants won't have Bonds. The only "regular" (100+ games) with an ERA+ over 100 other than Bonds, was Winn, he'll be 34 and his carer OPS+ is 101.
The Giants "young guys" like Frandsen, Lewis and Ortmeier are pretty indistinguishable from guys like Duffy and McLouth.
No Bonds, and being on the wrong side of the aging curve could lead to something we haven't seen too much of lately, a sub 600 run team.
.249 average
49 walks
107 runs
35 2B
4 3B
20 HR
28/2 SB/CS
Onbase average isn't great but his walk rate jumped last year, and he's only 26 so it could be real. I'd like to see what he can do leading off every day.
The batting average appears to be 20 points low.
Wilson was "at" .308 at age 26, and "at" .296 at age 29 last year. Every other year he's been below that .279 projection.
I use sac flies (counting them as a BIP), but I exclude bunts of all kinds, because (a) the vast majority of bunts are outs and (b) bunt attempts are highly discretionary, and including them tends to penalize the bunters. Since BABIP, to me, is a measure of how well the hitter is driving the ball, bunts don't really have anything to do with it.
For projections, though, I think you have to include them, because bunts ARE a big part of the game for some players.
-- MWE
Wilson 2007 THT BABIP: .313
BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF)
BABIP = (141 - 12) / (477 - 46 - 12 + 7)
BABIP = (129) / (426)
BABIP = 129/426
BABIP = .303
Wilson 2006 THT BABIP: .301
BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF)
BABIP = (148 - 8) / (543 - 65 - 8 + 5)
BABIP = (140) / (475)
BABIP = 140/475
BABIP = .295
Wilson 2005 THT BABIP: .277
BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF)
BABIP = (151 - 8) / (587 - 58 - 8 + 4)
BABIP = (143) / (525)
BABIP = 143/525
BABIP = .272
Actually, I just figured it out. THT isn't using (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF), they're using (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR-SF).
Are you using different age factors for them, one for a catcher and one for an OF/1B?
I would guess that Doumit's minor league record kicks Paulino's record's ass.
It looks like you are using a fairly even weighting of previous 3 years power production for the projection, and I wonder whether very noticeable changes in GB rate such as Wilson's 2007 and Rios' 2006 might be reason to change the weighting.
It does, at least his AAA record, but its only about 230 at bats from 2005-2007. His A and AA records were not nearly as good - though thats in 2003 and 2004, so doesn't matter much or at all to Zips. Paulino hit pretty well in AAA, 315/372/538 in 273 AB in 2005. Both players have much more major league data to go on.
I was just wondering about Doumit's aging factors - if he's being looked at as a 1B/OF, who I assume have much better power trends than catchers. Its something to consider if people are asking if he should be made the regular catcher ahead of Paulino- maybe he won't hit so well if he has to catch.
That seems reasonable.
The problem then becomes how many runs allowed the Pirates give up with that defense on the field all year (with Doumit and McLouth 850+). That's another 90+ loss team.
So much for playing AAAA guys.
I understand in the case of pitchers, since you're trying to isolate the things that a pitcher has 100% responsibilty for from the rest, but a batter's home run and single are both expressions of his ability to hit safely (from the batter's point of view). Is there some technical reason involving the level of accuracy in the resulting projections?
As for the Phelps projection, the system must think he's getting all 373 AB against LHP.
Because BIP means "balls in play".
The Phillies thread has the same exact discussion about how a measurement including home runs (that would be "on-contact BA") would probably be more useful for hitters.
I agree with both of you guys here. Doumit and McLouth definitely have chances to be league average players for the rest of their careers (which has a significant amount of value at CF and C). I think they obviously both deserve shots to put together a full productive year (although Doumit's injuries are probably more to blame than the management for his lack of full years).
However, McLouth and Doumit represent two of the best position players in the Pirate organization under the age of 27 (!!!). Cutch, Walker, and Pearce round out the rest (with Delaney and Bixler having outside shots). Basically the Pirates have one guy who has a decent chance of being an All-Star (Cutch) and one guy who has an outside shot at being an All-Star (Walker) with another guy who came out of nowhere and I have no feeling how to judge (Pearce). That does not portend well for the future.
I'm torn about what to do with the 28-30 year olds in the organization. LaRoche, Bay, and Sanchez all have varying degrees of value and the organization would be in trouble without them. But if they can be turned into lower level prospects with significant upside, then it should be done.
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