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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
ZiPS likes the Padres a tad more than the Giants. I don't think they even make tads that big.
As far as ZiPS sees it, the biggest challenge the Padres will face is making sure Kouzmanoff and Headley are both in the
lineup and figuring out what to do in centerfield, if they are in fact not going to make a run at signing Mike Cameron.
Aaron Rowand would be a great fit, but I don't know how expensive he'll be in a very weak free agent market. Not much else
to say - from eyeballing, I think ZiPS is predicting San Diego to be the best team in the NL, but I won't know for sure until
I run the Mets projections.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Adrian Gonzalez* 1b 26 .284 .351 .511 153 585 93 166 39 2 30 89 59 116 0 0
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3b 26 .289 .345 .492 124 419 50 121 27 2 18 65 32 74 1 1
Morgan Ensberg 3b 32 .243 .370 .446 128 395 60 96 18 1 20 59 76 105 1 3
Brian Giles* rf 37 .268 .375 .398 135 507 73 136 29 2 11 60 83 61 5 3
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .267 .347 .444 ------------------------------------------
Brian Myrow* 1b 31 .269 .360 .418 113 323 42 87 20 2 8 42 45 88 1 1
Josh Bard# c 30 .281 .366 .401 104 317 34 89 21 1 5 42 43 62 0 1
Chase Headley# 3b 24 .264 .353 .410 136 466 52 123 28 2 12 52 58 125 2 2
Hiram Bocachica rf 32 .247 .349 .421 78 259 29 64 13 1 10 34 35 54 8 4
Milton Bradley# rf 30 .261 .348 .407 81 295 40 77 11 1 10 35 37 62 6 2
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .266 .339 .426 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .265 .336 .427 ------------------------------------------
Mike Cameron cf 35 .249 .334 .424 125 481 73 120 26 5 16 61 56 131 17 5
Termel Sledge* lf 31 .248 .333 .429 120 326 35 81 13 2 14 45 40 80 2 2
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .263 .333 .423 ------------------------------------------
Kyle Blanks 1b 21 .255 .318 .419 109 384 44 98 22 1 13 57 24 116 4 1
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .261 .326 .402 ------------------------------------------
Khalil Greene ss 28 .249 .300 .442 139 523 73 130 37 2 20 77 36 111 5 0
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .265 .327 .389 ------------------------------------------
Matt Antonelli 2b 23 .254 .337 .376 114 425 65 108 16 3 10 42 49 89 13 6
Scott Hairston lf 28 .243 .317 .405 100 304 35 74 14 1 11 33 31 72 1 0
Chad Huffman lf 23 .252 .331 .380 107 361 42 91 14 1 10 52 33 90 0 1
Paul McAnulty* lf 27 .255 .323 .391 109 361 38 92 21 2 8 42 35 81 1 1
David Freese 3b 25 .250 .324 .381 117 420 54 105 21 2 10 58 36 117 3 1
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .263 .319 .384 ------------------------------------------
Rob Mackowiak* lf 32 .256 .332 .354 102 285 32 73 11 1 5 30 28 78 4 1
Michael Barrett c 31 .254 .313 .385 99 335 32 85 18 1 8 36 27 50 1 1
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .250 .312 .379 ------------------------------------------
Jason Lane rf 31 .230 .304 .402 127 391 46 90 20 1 15 56 38 88 2 2
Marcus Giles 2b 30 .246 .327 .356 133 505 73 124 28 2 8 47 57 100 9 3
Royce Huffman 1b 31 .242 .329 .339 105 351 34 85 20 1 4 36 39 72 2 1
Luis Rodriguez# 3b 28 .244 .321 .344 86 209 24 51 10 1 3 19 23 23 0 1
Craig Stansberry 2b 26 .225 .309 .355 131 445 54 100 22 3 10 48 50 115 8 6
Colt Morton c 26 .220 .295 .371 81 259 24 57 15 0 8 28 24 86 0 1
Nicholas Hundley c 24 .222 .281 .376 101 356 27 79 19 0 12 48 27 85 0 1
Drew Macias* cf 25 .233 .308 .336 120 390 38 91 16 3 6 37 39 86 4 7
Will Venable* rf 25 .245 .296 .327 124 444 46 109 16 1 6 49 27 84 9 3
Geoff Blum# 3b 35 .233 .298 .329 92 249 24 58 13 1 3 22 22 42 0 1
Vince Sinisi* rf 26 .236 .289 .326 110 433 42 102 22 1 5 38 31 79 4 4
Oscar Robles* 3b 32 .239 .302 .295 88 251 23 60 9 1 1 17 22 26 0 3
Yordany Ramirez cf 24 .238 .266 .324 94 324 36 77 14 1 4 35 10 71 14 7
Luis Cruz ss 24 .212 .248 .310 111 387 31 82 18 1 6 30 17 51 2 2
Cedric Hunter* cf 20 .221 .265 .278 116 403 28 89 11 0 4 34 23 76 4 6
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Gonzalez* Av
Kouzmanoff Av Av
Ensberg Av Vg
Giles* Av
Myrow* Fr
Bard# Pr
Headley# Av
Bocachica Av Pr Av
Bradley# Vg Av Vg
Cameron Av
Sledge* Av Av
Blanks Fr
Greene Vg
Antonelli Fr Av
Hairston Av
Huffman Av
McAnulty* Av Fr Pr Pr
Freese Fr
Mackowiak* Av Fr Fr Vg Pr Av
Barrett Pr
Lane Pr Pr Pr
Giles Av
Huffman Av Pr Pr Pr Fr Fr
Rodriguez# Av Av Fr
Stansberry Av Fr Fr
Morton Av Fr
Hundley Av
Macias* Fr Fr Fr
Venable* Vg Pr Vg
Blum# Av Fr Av Fr Fr Fr
Sinisi* Fr Pr Fr
Robles* Fr Vg Fr
Ramirez Vg
Cruz Av Av Av
Hunter* Vg Vg
Player Spotlight - Adrian Gonzalez
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .307 .377 .567 162 619 111 190 46 2 37 114 68 111 0 0
Mean .284 .351 .511 153 585 93 166 39 2 30 89 59 116 0 0
Pessimistic (15%) .259 .318 .443 125 479 65 124 28 0 20 58 42 103 0 0
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Kent Hrbek, Alvin Davis
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Trevor Hoffman 40 2.53 5 1 59 0 57.0 49 16 3 12 46
Heath Bell 30 2.89 6 2 66 0 81.0 68 26 5 24 84
Joe Thatcher* 26 2.96 6 3 59 0 67.0 59 22 5 17 60
Jake Peavy 27 2.99 17 7 33 33 214.0 181 71 19 56 221
Cla Meredith 25 3.26 7 4 78 0 91.0 89 33 7 16 66
Chris Young 29 3.32 12 6 31 31 176.0 147 65 18 60 165
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 3.78 -----------------------------------------------
Justin Hampson* 28 3.84 3 3 59 0 75.0 69 32 8 34 63
Greg Maddux 42 3.91 14 11 33 33 200.0 212 87 18 34 106
Doug Brocail 41 3.95 3 3 56 1 66.0 65 29 6 25 47
Will Startup* 23 3.97 4 4 56 0 77.0 75 34 9 21 58
Scott Cassidy 32 4.00 6 5 52 1 72.0 68 32 10 25 72
Kevin Cameron 28 4.11 3 3 44 0 70.0 69 32 6 29 52
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.14 -----------------------------------------------
Justin Germano 25 4.24 10 10 30 28 172.0 181 81 21 36 105
Brett Tomko 35 4.34 8 9 36 21 143.0 145 69 16 49 104
Clay Hensley 28 4.47 7 8 32 22 145.0 150 72 14 61 92
Mike Adams 30 4.50 2 3 46 0 58.0 60 29 6 27 43
Adrian Burnside* 31 4.50 1 2 43 0 52.0 54 26 6 18 36
Casey Fossum* 30 4.53 7 9 35 21 133.0 131 67 17 55 106
Wade LeBlanc* 23 4.67 8 11 27 25 131.0 139 68 20 30 105
Wil Ledezma* 27 4.71 5 6 35 13 105.0 107 55 13 50 79
Jack Cassel 27 4.75 8 10 33 22 161.0 182 85 18 49 88
Shawn Estes* 35 4.88 4 6 19 16 94.0 105 51 11 38 56
Frank Brooks* 29 4.94 2 3 53 0 62.0 62 34 12 30 50
Josh Geer 25 4.99 8 12 26 26 166.0 201 92 21 31 72
Jared Wells 26 5.01 8 10 34 22 142.0 157 79 16 58 86
Aaron Rakers 31 5.02 4 7 69 0 95.0 100 53 18 24 81
Tim Stauffer 26 5.21 6 11 28 25 159.0 183 92 20 49 85
Mike Thompson 27 5.34 6 10 29 25 160.0 190 95 21 49 66
Steve Watkins 29 5.37 4 7 29 15 109.0 122 65 17 42 63
Cesar Carrillo 24 5.40 1 2 9 9 50.0 55 30 8 20 32
Roger Deago* 39 6.13 4 11 30 19 119.0 140 81 23 57 72
Ryan Ketchner* 26 6.15 3 9 20 19 98.0 116 67 19 32 68
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Jake Peavy
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.14 21 4 34 34 231 173 55 14 53 261
Mean 2.99 17 7 33 33 214 181 71 19 56 221
Pessimistic (15%) 3.64 11 8 27 27 173 158 70 18 58 167
Top Near-Age Comps: Camilo Pascual, Bret Saberhagen
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 16, 2007 at 12:35 AM | 41 comment(s)
Related News: San Diego, ZIPS
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I kind of wish I thought of that joke before I clicked submit.
Sadly Zips is no playing time/injury predictor, and thats where Peavy's real pessimistic projection will come from
Are we that sure that the Rockies won't be in the mix?
What to do with the OF? - B Giles isn't getting any younger, Cameron may be gone, and there isn't a LF til Bradley comes back and we don't know when that will be
What does ZIPS think of Barrett in a nuetral environment?
If Hairston's performance during his Padres tenure wasn't a fluke (tho ZIPS says otherwise), you could do worse than a Hairston / Sledge platoon.
What the Padres did this year is mask his decline by pitching him disproportionately at PETCO. Any projection system is going to have a tough time with a 40 year old who throws 35 innings in a great pitching environment and 22 innings in a neutral one. This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.
But if they keep doing that, it should be right-ish, no? The thing would be if they didn't do that on purpose (35/22 might be random, particularly when you consider they won more home games) and then he had a larger share of IP in hitter's parks.
Despite haveing close to legue average line drive percentage he had a below legue avg BABIP. I remember during the Orioles series, he was robbed of a homerun by Patterson, and then a double, and Melvin Mora robbed him TWICE on shots down the line. He lost 10 extra bases vs. the Orioles in June alone. I remember calculating at the time that if those robberies not occured, it would have added 100 points to his OPS and he never would have been traded.
If they give the guy 400-500 PA, I would bet a fair sum he will have a higher OPS than 722
i hope not.
At one point last winter, I accidentally erased Tucson's 2006 HR park factor and my spreadsheet as a result reported a 3-year weighted HR factor of 64 as a result. I had to do a bunch of Arizona players over again and while I thought I had fixed everyone, I happened to re-check Hairston's projection over the summer and saw that I had never fixed him. I double-checked all the other Diamondbacks and everyone else's was correct.
The split isn't quite that severe because he faced a lot more batters per inning away than he did at home. All in all, it was 9% more BF at home and 9% more on the road.
Also, the ERA splits are exaggerated. While the home/road ERA split is a massive 1.80/4.84, the home/road DIPS ERA split was 3.11/3.32, which is actually slightly smaller than the normal Petco/Road split!
In Hoffman's particular case, there are a number of objective indicators of significant decline, from K rate to platoon splits to intentional walk rate. Opposing managers will catch on, and pinch-hit with left-handed hitters a little more, and like Gossage did at the end, Hoffman is going to struggle to be better than a league average reliever.
vr, Xei
Now, we need to get a CF, if not Cameron or Rowand, then at least Hunter.
KT also said that Antonelli will halve to earn the 2b job in spring. I think he will. So we'll probably open the season playing something like:
Bard/Barret C
Gonzalez 1b
Antonelli 2b
Kouzmanoff 3b
Greene SS
Hairston/Headley LF
Cameron? CF
Giles RF
We do need some good CFer.
I like Josh Bard's projections. Too bad he plays in Petco.
I'm looking forward to see if they're looking to better their keep-the-runner-close-to-the-bag skill.
He's expected to be a high first round pick in the George Mitchell Fantasy Draft.
If you haven't seen the Padres staff "attempt" to hold runners, it's difficult to imagine how bad they are at it. Chris Young and Greg Maddux might as well never work out of the stretch. Base stealers are 85-for-89 against Young alone over the past two years; they've stolen successfully in 46 straight attempts dating back to September 27, 2006. There isn't a catcher alive that has a chance with him on the mound.
Thanks!
If defense is the first priority, and in PETCO it should be, Coco Crisp would look very good in San Diego. With Ellsbury's arrival, Coco is a late inning defensive replacement for Boston.
... for Bard and Meredith? Only if you give Crisp a police escort to PETCO.
I prefer Hunter, really; although I doubt 1)That the Pads pay him the money he's going to ask for and 2)He wants to play in SD, from everything I've heard.
I like the team we have so far, I would like for the to add to that, not subtract, we need to keep the young promising guys and the ones who have performed well enough already.
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