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I kind of wish I thought of that joke before I clicked submit.
Sadly Zips is no playing time/injury predictor, and thats where Peavy's real pessimistic projection will come from
Are we that sure that the Rockies won't be in the mix?
What to do with the OF? - B Giles isn't getting any younger, Cameron may be gone, and there isn't a LF til Bradley comes back and we don't know when that will be
What does ZIPS think of Barrett in a nuetral environment?
If Hairston's performance during his Padres tenure wasn't a fluke (tho ZIPS says otherwise), you could do worse than a Hairston / Sledge platoon.
What the Padres did this year is mask his decline by pitching him disproportionately at PETCO. Any projection system is going to have a tough time with a 40 year old who throws 35 innings in a great pitching environment and 22 innings in a neutral one. This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.
But if they keep doing that, it should be right-ish, no? The thing would be if they didn't do that on purpose (35/22 might be random, particularly when you consider they won more home games) and then he had a larger share of IP in hitter's parks.
Despite haveing close to legue average line drive percentage he had a below legue avg BABIP. I remember during the Orioles series, he was robbed of a homerun by Patterson, and then a double, and Melvin Mora robbed him TWICE on shots down the line. He lost 10 extra bases vs. the Orioles in June alone. I remember calculating at the time that if those robberies not occured, it would have added 100 points to his OPS and he never would have been traded.
If they give the guy 400-500 PA, I would bet a fair sum he will have a higher OPS than 722
i hope not.
At one point last winter, I accidentally erased Tucson's 2006 HR park factor and my spreadsheet as a result reported a 3-year weighted HR factor of 64 as a result. I had to do a bunch of Arizona players over again and while I thought I had fixed everyone, I happened to re-check Hairston's projection over the summer and saw that I had never fixed him. I double-checked all the other Diamondbacks and everyone else's was correct.
The split isn't quite that severe because he faced a lot more batters per inning away than he did at home. All in all, it was 9% more BF at home and 9% more on the road.
Also, the ERA splits are exaggerated. While the home/road ERA split is a massive 1.80/4.84, the home/road DIPS ERA split was 3.11/3.32, which is actually slightly smaller than the normal Petco/Road split!
In Hoffman's particular case, there are a number of objective indicators of significant decline, from K rate to platoon splits to intentional walk rate. Opposing managers will catch on, and pinch-hit with left-handed hitters a little more, and like Gossage did at the end, Hoffman is going to struggle to be better than a league average reliever.
vr, Xei
Now, we need to get a CF, if not Cameron or Rowand, then at least Hunter.
KT also said that Antonelli will halve to earn the 2b job in spring. I think he will. So we'll probably open the season playing something like:
Bard/Barret C
Gonzalez 1b
Antonelli 2b
Kouzmanoff 3b
Greene SS
Hairston/Headley LF
Cameron? CF
Giles RF
We do need some good CFer.
I like Josh Bard's projections. Too bad he plays in Petco.
I'm looking forward to see if they're looking to better their keep-the-runner-close-to-the-bag skill.
He's expected to be a high first round pick in the George Mitchell Fantasy Draft.
If you haven't seen the Padres staff "attempt" to hold runners, it's difficult to imagine how bad they are at it. Chris Young and Greg Maddux might as well never work out of the stretch. Base stealers are 85-for-89 against Young alone over the past two years; they've stolen successfully in 46 straight attempts dating back to September 27, 2006. There isn't a catcher alive that has a chance with him on the mound.
Thanks!
If defense is the first priority, and in PETCO it should be, Coco Crisp would look very good in San Diego. With Ellsbury's arrival, Coco is a late inning defensive replacement for Boston.
... for Bard and Meredith? Only if you give Crisp a police escort to PETCO.
I prefer Hunter, really; although I doubt 1)That the Pads pay him the money he's going to ask for and 2)He wants to play in SD, from everything I've heard.
I like the team we have so far, I would like for the to add to that, not subtract, we need to keep the young promising guys and the ones who have performed well enough already.
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