That's some awful offense, but really good pitching. Any chance of Lowry/Cain/Lincecum being traded for a bat or two?

That is an ugly, ugly, offense. But hey, at least Lincecum and Cain are pretty sweet.

The offense is bad but the pitching is good.

(We're all supposed to say that, right?)

The sentiment out in SF seems to be that the team is going to see what they can bring in for Lowry. Despite the solid projection, I don't think they could get anything to insert in the 2008 lineup and receive significant production from. I would be very surprised if either Cain or Lincecum were dealt.

I don't know if it would change these numbers, but Rajai Davis hits exclusively right-handed now.

Assuming the Giants don't add a power hitter, they may not have anyone who hits as many as 20 HR's. That's just plain scary.

Yay! Sweet Pitching!

Ugh.... awful, awful, awful hitting. And Bonds is the one who needs to go! Yeah, great job, Sabean.

Basically, anyone not named Lincecum or Cain could be dealt for hitting, with Noah Lowry and Jonathan Sanchez at the top of the list. The rotation will likely be Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Correia, and one of the guys who doesn't get traded. Nice.

I don't know what the ERAs for a league-average 4th and 5th starter in AT&T;are, but Lowry's optimistic projection makes him a 2 or 3, Sanchez is probably a 4 or 5, Misch a 5, and even Begg probably a 5. Everyone but Lowry in that group is at the minimum.

Sanchez has the best raw potential - LHP, FB up to mid-90s, hard-breaking slider, occasional change. Sanchez's biggest problem is throwing strikes. His control takes a vacation for stretches, and he just looks lost.

I would like to see Lowry go. He's smoke and mirrors out there, like Kirk Rueter with more walks at this point. Also, 73 BB and 112 K in 179 IP for Lowry? 2005 Lowry is gone and isn't coming back. That said, he's a Proven Veteran at this point, and that 14-8, 3.92 ERA this year is going to look mighty good to a bunch of GMs out there, some of which probably won't even look at the 1.55 WHIP, let alone anything more advanced. Unfortunately, Sabean is one of those GMs. Still, what would Lowry fetch? Not enough to turn the team around.

Watch Brian Wilson. He was already a well-regarded, fairly young hard thrower, but his ability to throw strikes was suspect. This year, though, he learned a cutter, and it seems to have helped with the nibbling. He comes with a FB at 96 or so and a cutter at about 91.

Thanks Szym - I also like the "B.D.C." for Feliz in the defensive ratings. Brain-Dead Caribbean hacking at slop, anyone?

Regarding Sanchez, I believe he is going under the knife although I'm not sure for what part of his arm. He should be ready to go for Spring Training, but he's not getting traded for anything.

Are the pitching projections defense-independent? If so, that's a lot of above-average pitching backed by what could be a well above-average defense.

Walt, how do you figure the defense to be well above-average? Feliz could be a goner, nobody else in the infield would seem to be well above-average. The outfield will benefit from missing Bonds, and Winn is probably good in a corner, but unless Andruw Jones comes to town, I don't see it being a stellar outfield. Davis has the wheels for center, but I have heard that his routes are subpar and he is not a particularly good defender.

well, by Dan's ratings, you've got "excellent" at SS and 3B and "very good" at 1B with average at 2B. The likely OF is mainly a mix of average, very good and an excellent. Now, that lineup won't score any runs and the Giants might try to sneak the "better" hitters into the lineup in an attempt to score 3.2 runs per game rather than 3 :-), but there's the core of a well above-average defense there.

Or Dan's defensive ratings are poopy. :-)

Davis had a good reputation in the minors and excellent defensive numbers in the majors. I may have been too hasty to give him an EX, but I think objectively, he's a VG at least.

What kind of range could you predict Winehouse to have in CF if she thought the ball was a bag of coke?

Would this be a likely place for A-Rod if he opts out?

First, I didn't even realize those fielding assessments were there and that is what Walt was basing his statement on. I just skimmed right from the hitting projections down to the pitching. I'm skeptical, but I also don't like the Giants, so that probably plays a part.

As for A-Rod, I wouldn't call SF likely, but I think the team would be interested. Sabean was asked about A-Rod on the radio recently, and his non-answer still seemed to indicate that the team would hope to be involved. If the numbers get anywhere near what Boras is angling for, I think they will be out of it soon. The Giants need the Yankees to really stay out of things if he hits free agency in order to have a shot.

A few years ago, the Giants probably could have gotten a young star for Lowry, but not anymore. I think the vast majority of GMs do know about things like WHIP and K-rate now. They could get Adam Dunn for him, but that wouldn't help, it would just almost replace Bonds.

I think I'd trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I'd trust Sabes to build my offense.

Nice

They could get Adam Dunn for him, but that wouldn't help, it would just almost replace Bonds.

Adam Dunn would be a massive upgrade over whoever plays LF this year.

Davis has the wheels for center, but I have heard that his routes are subpar and he is not a particularly good defender.

Are you thinking of Fred Lewis?

From what I've seen of Davis, and heard about him, the issue is his offense. If he can put up a 350 OBP, he would be an acceptable starter.

What kind of range could you predict Winehouse to have in CF if she thought the ball was a bag of coke?

One scout reports that "I know that she's no good."

What's even scarier about the offensive projections is how old the Giants "prospects" are. It's ironic that Barry Bonds went to the Giants after leaving Pittsburgh, because both of these teams look startlingly similar, except the Pirates have Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche and the Giants managed to get better pitchers despite drafting lower and fewer of them.

From what I've seen of Davis, and heard about him, the issue is his offense. If he can put up a 350 OBP, he would be an acceptable starter.

And if a frog had wings it wouldn't bump it's ass a-hoppin'.

Regarding Sanchez, I believe he is going under the knife although I'm not sure for what part of his arm.

He's healthy. He was hoping to pitch in Puerto Rico this winter, but there isn't a league in Puerto Rico this year.

Assuming the Giants don't add a power hitter, they may not have anyone who hits as many as 20 HR's.

Pedro Feliz is a pretty good bet to hit 20 homers... assuming he gets 600 to 650 at bats.

It would be an upset if the Giants are not dead last in runs scored next season.

He's healthy. He was hoping to pitch in Puerto Rico this winter, but there isn't a league in Puerto Rico this year.

He's still looking for one, though. He could get into a series of pickup games in Ponce with some little kids and old guys, with RF closed, but that would only help if he gets to pitch against the Giants next year.

I take it San Francisco don't trust the maxim that offense is better than defense, because they are going to be relying a heck of alot on defense.

Dan,

What do Lincecum and Cain look like in a more neutral park? Or playing in a bandbox like Citizen's Bank?

That projection looks low to me for Frandsen.

I wonder how Sabes did so well putting together offenses for a few years there. Was it just that he was a whole lot luckier than he deserved in his pickups of Mr. Porn Stache (a.k.a. "The Mad Truck Washer") and Home Run Jesus? Maybe he spent too many years playing for that year only. Maybe he just doesn't give a #### any more ...

He did have some luck picking up guys off the scrap heap who could be useful enough to put together a decent lineup with Bonds and Kent holding the whole thing together. Then he went off the deep end, and his thought process is not totally clear when it comes to things like the Michael Tucker fiasco. I think that if he hasn't given a #### recently, he does now and wants to show people that he can put together a team without Bonds. I don't think he can do it, but I'm interested to watch him try.

Dan - any particular reason why ZIPS expects Feliz to fall off the face of the earth

BA last four seasons - .276, .250, .244, .253
SLG last four seasons - .485, .422, .428, .418
HR last four seasons - 22, 20, 22, 20

08 projection - BA .239, SLG .382, HR 15

Dan - any particular reason why ZIPS expects Feliz to fall off the face of the earth


ZiPS sees Feliz as a good dropoff candidate - lower quality hitters have harsher aging curves in their 30s and a larger chance of downside at the very extremes.

I guess the Giants could sign A-Rod and Rowand and merely have a bad offense

They're one away from that goal now!

Dan, can you do a projection for Gary Edmund Carter, thanks.

I'm glad a found these, makes the Blue Jays look a little better.
This list is full of "wow" for me...as in:
Wow, is that guy still around?
Wow, is that guy 29 already?
Wow, isn't that guy in Japan yet?
Wow, is that guy back from Japan?
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, they have some decent pitchers.
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, I wonder what the park will be named this year, I should be able to finally get tickets.

So the Giants' projected lineup is currently what? Something like:

LF Roberts
2B Durham
CF Roward
RF Winn
C Molina
1B Aurilia
3B ?????
SS Vizquel

Even with someone like Mike Lamb or Ensberg slotted in at 3B, that's likely to be the worst offense of the last 5 years at least, right?

Randy Winn: Cleanup Hitter!