BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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1. Champions Table Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:32 AM (#2569429)

Looks like someone forgot to do pitcher projections for Miles and Spiezio.

2. philly Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:32 AM (#2569431)

Jaime Garcia solidifies his claim as the only Cards starting pitcher prospect to be anywhere near ready

Garcia didn't pitch the last month or so of the season. I never heard exactly why, but presumably some kind of arm ailment.

3. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:06 AM (#2569471)

jaime garcia had issues with his elbow...yeah. not good.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:18 AM (#2569482)

I had been under the impression it wasn't serious. It actually looks quite serious! Too bad.

5. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2569493)

Yikes, that's an ugly projection for Rolen. Molina will do better than that, IMO.

6. Morally Excellent Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:41 AM (#2569499)

Heh...I like Ankiel with 25 dingers and still worse than an average catcher.

And talk about a nose-dive: ZiPS had Scott Rolen projected at .287/.371/.509 entering 2007.

7. St.Philly Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:00 AM (#2569508)

So, ZiPS project that Rolen will play hurt again?

8. myst333 Posted: October 09, 2007 at 07:37 AM (#2569546)

Thats depressing. Based on this and the 2007 results I wonder if Wellemeyer should end up in the rotation?

9. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 01:14 PM (#2569672)

had been under the impression it wasn't serious. It actually looks quite serious! Too bad.

they are saying it's going to be ok, but they said the same thing about chris carpenter.

10. AROM Posted: October 09, 2007 at 01:33 PM (#2569686)

So, ZiPS project that Rolen will play hurt again?

Whens the last time he played without being hurt? Looks like 2004.

11. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 02:09 PM (#2569725)

I'd love to see a player spotlight for Rick Ankiel.

12. Cabbage Posted: October 09, 2007 at 02:14 PM (#2569728)

Check out Pujols' BB:K at 'optimistic'.

13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 09, 2007 at 02:22 PM (#2569738)

"they are saying it's going to be ok, but they said the same thing about chris carpenter."

And he probably will be... in a year and a half.

14. greenback

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 02:42 PM (#2569760)

A 4.65 ERA from Reyes isn't exactly world-beating, but it would be a big boost to 2008 team.

Reyes isn't putting up an ERA south of 5 for the Cardinals, DD/TLR or not.

You have to watch Aaron Miles everyday to appreciate how untalented he is.

15. phredbird

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:34 PM (#2569925)

i remember some of us card fanboys were saying they thought the projections had edmonds too low last year. well ... i'm not making that mistake this year!

we're in trouble.

16. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2569939)

dan, if you read this i was wondering if you could do the ZiPS on Jason Motte, Joe Mather and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Thanks

17. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2569945)

Er, reason I ask is all are headed to the Arizona Fall League and are probably going to be added to the 40 man. Just thought I should clarify.

18. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2570110)

OK, those three players are now included in the above projections (and therefore, also on the DMB disk). For those that don't remember, I'll generally project anyone, so long as the player's played full-season ball (with exceptions for players like Weeks, who I actually had to project with little minor league experience, due to quickness of promotion). I also don't like going over 80 players for a team, simply because I like using DMB to organize all this and DMB won't let you have more than 80 players assigned to an organization.

19. HowardMegdal

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2570118)

And when can we expect the 2008 DMB disk? These are great, and I will be feeling my baseball withdrawal symptoms soon- and by soon, I mean last Monday.

20. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 06:45 PM (#2570135)

And when can we expect the 2008 DMB disk? These are great, and I will be feeling my baseball withdrawal symptoms soon- and by soon, I mean last Monday.

I'll release it more periodically, even if certain things I want to do aren't done, just so people can have access to it.

21. Champions Table Posted: October 09, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2570247)

At some point early on when Albert was really struggling, he was striking out a ton (relatively speaking). I just went and looked; he finished with a "whopping" 58 K's and led the majors in BB/K.

On a side note, I saw Anthony Reyes and Brad Thompson at a Chipotle in Clayton this weekend ...

22. Kyle S Posted: October 09, 2007 at 09:32 PM (#2570264)

I thought Ankiel was a good outfielder but it looks like you don't think he is, Dan. What do cards fans think? What about UZR?

23. greenback

Posted: October 09, 2007 at 09:44 PM (#2570274)

Ankiel was erratic in the outfield. Decent athlete, although not as good as claimed, and a fantastic arm (duh), but would take some odd routes and looked lost at times.

Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?

24. phredbird

Posted: October 10, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2570878)

considering he hasn't been an outfielder all that long, i imagine he's got some things to learn. i'd say he's already better than duncan, though i guess that's not saying much.
what worries me more is his swing. i didn't see much of him, but what i saw had me wondering. it isn't very pretty, and it sure looks like the pitchers had him figured out toward the end of the season.

25. Russ Posted: October 10, 2007 at 04:52 PM (#2570929)

The Cardinals look like the Pirates - LaRoche + Pujols for next year, if you think

Carpenter + Wainwright ~= Snell + Gorzellany

The rest of the rotations are probably a wash, as are the bullpens, and most of the rest of the respective starting lineups.

I think this is more like bad news for the Cards than good news for the Pirates.

26. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 10, 2007 at 05:11 PM (#2570959)

"Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?"

I laughed.

27. Russ Posted: October 11, 2007 at 12:46 AM (#2571405)

"Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?"

I laughed.

Everyone who thought that Josh Fogg would turn out to be the best pitcher involved the Todd Ritchie deal 6 years later, please raise your hand.

28. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 11, 2007 at 01:34 AM (#2571429)

So what's the story with Rolen's health prospects?

29. Russ Posted: October 11, 2007 at 05:05 AM (#2571515)

So what's the story with Rolen's health prospects?

Partly cloudy (vision), 40% chance of (falling in the) showers.

30. More Indecisive than Lonnie Smith on 2nd... Posted: October 12, 2007 at 01:45 AM (#2572387)

Wow. The only way Pujols could ever reach the mythic "optimistic" projection is if they found a couple of .400 OBP guys to put 1-2, because he's not touching 120-130 RBI again until they get rid of the crud that Jocketty/LaRussa had found to put in front of him. Poor guy...no, wait, I would make some kind of sympathetic statement, but that #### for brains team has the same number of WS wins as the Braves. And with a worse team than they ever fielded. So while he might soldier on until his next big payday, at least he has his ring...

31. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:18 PM (#2579438)

Everyone who thought that Josh Fogg would turn out to be the best pitcher involved the Todd Ritchie deal 6 years later, please raise your hand.

Ooh, ooh, ooh...ooh-ooh...although not as good as I thought he'd be.

32. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: October 16, 2007 at 03:21 PM (#2579445)

Joel Pineiro 29 5.28 6 10 36 22 150.0 171 88 20 53 80

Holy crap, the Cards better hope LaRussa doesn't leave and take Dave Duncan with him.

33. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: October 31, 2007 at 01:20 AM (#2600894)

Was there any larger disparity in starting pitcher projections than Reyes had last year? It kept me on Anthony's bandwagon until September (and maybe still a little when no one can hear me).

And, Wow, in retrospect that reliever-starter conversion toy you developed came pretty close on Thompson and Loop! I'm still impressed with that toy.

34. greenback

Posted: December 01, 2007 at 02:32 PM (#2630673)

Dan, I don't know if you plan on giving Cubs fans something to cackle about with the Izturis signing, so I'll ask here. Could you project Jose Martinez, the one who played at Palm Beach and Springfield this year and was born 1/24/86? I'm guessing it's not pretty, but I need another front on the war against the Middle Infield Legion of Extreme Suckitude (MILES).

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